YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Cage

Two possibilities come to mind:
1) No other use for the aircraft.
2) QF has a risk sharing partner (e.g. consolidator or tour operator) based in Australia that has taken up some of the seats.

In any event I don't see this becoming a seasonal or year round route. At YYC we have seen this marekt before with Korean and Asiana flying ICN-YYC n/s during the summer, they brought Koreans to Banff to see the mountains.

That QF announcement caught us off guard. I was surprised at how much attention it got too. With the amount of discussion it raised you would have thought a permanent daily non-stop had been announced. And the 744 is just too big to fly that route at any other time of year. Until QF gets any of the 787s coming online or transferred from Jetstar it isn't going to happen.

Long term though I can see QF back on a permanent basis or Jetstar even going non stop or via HNL. There is not a more perfect stop for SYD-YVR if there is to be one. Straight line right over Hawaii. I remember when Air NZ started flights with 1 747 a week to YVR. I honestly would never have guessed they would be increasing to 6 weekly in the peak winter period and 5 in the summer.

The difference too with the Korean trials were there were no direct flights anyway whereas we all know AC is doing just fine on the SYD-YVR route.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Cage

Good article on the problems at Air India.
http://www.bangaloreaviation.com/2014/09...n-all-but-two-international-flights.html

Bottom line, AI loses money on 57 out of 59 international routes. The only two international routes AI makes money are regional services to Kathmandu and Rangoon.

Some routes did not even have enough revenue to cover the gas bill. But on several Ultra Long Haul routes I have heard fuel costs can be 80% of total costs. Normal domestic services have fuel cost comprising 25-30% of total cost.

Don't think we will be seeing Air India in Canada again anytime soon!

[Johnny Aussie]

Hot on the heels of the recently announced new temporary QF services....

Qantas applying for thrice-weekly year-round SYD-YVR services.

Application is for Australia-Canada but my contacts say specifically SYD-YVR.

1,092 return seats per week which is 3 - 364 seater 744s.

The application is for Qantas or its subsidiaries but that is just standard application jargon by Qantas.

More info in this article plus a draft of the application dated 17th September.

Doesn't mean it will be used year-round, but certainly gives Qantas the ability to offer flights whenever it wants up to the weekly cap.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-mulls-ong...medium=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper

So YVR may perhaps see the flying kangaroo more regularly after all!

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Hot on the heels of the recently announced new temporary QF services....

Qantas applying for thrice-weekly year-round SYD-YVR services.

Application is for Australia-Canada but my contacts say specifically SYD-YVR.

1,092 return seats per week which is 3 - 364 seater 744s.

The application is for Qantas or its subsidiaries but that is just standard application jargon by Qantas.

More info in this article plus a draft of the application dated 17th September.

Doesn't mean it will used year-round, but certainly gives Qantas the ability to offer flights whenever it wants up to the weekly cap.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-mulls-ong...medium=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper

So YVR may perhaps see the flying kangaroo more regularly after all!

Yippi ai o - callé !! callé !!!! Come back QANTAS !!

[Canadian74]

Why not MEL.... !!!

[Canadian74]

Originally Posted by Cage

Good article on the problems at Air India.
http://www.bangaloreaviation.com/2014/09...n-all-but-two-international-flights.html

Bottom line, AI loses money on 57 out of 59 international routes. The only two international routes AI makes money are regional services to Kathmandu and Rangoon.

Some routes did not even have enough revenue to cover the gas bill. But on several Ultra Long Haul routes I have heard fuel costs can be 80% of total costs. Normal domestic services have fuel cost comprising 25-30% of total cost.

I wonder how Jet is doing at YYZ... Didn't they upgrade to a 77W from 332/333 for sometime?

[twoNeurons]

Wow! Great news about YVR - KIX (Osaka).

It's an AC Rouge flight, so their flights will likely be priced very competitively as well as opening up Kansai to BC. There's a huge tourism potential for both YVR and YYC from Western Japan.

KIX is also becoming a LCC hub with Peach (ANA subsidiary) being a major tenant, now that HND is taking its place as a proper competitor to ICN.

It also has a large list of smaller Chinese destinations:
Nanjing, Qingdao, Shanghai-Pudong, Yantai, Dalian... etc.

Great addition, I'm happy to see YVR-KIX back, even if it's only seasonal (for now).

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Canadian74

Why not MEL.... !!!

... I asked the same question, and the answer is first that it would hurt the Sydney route yield,
and secondly that there just isn't the demand.... yet

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Hot on the heels of the recently announced new temporary QF services....

Qantas applying for thrice-weekly year-round SYD-YVR services.

Application is for Australia-Canada but my contacts say specifically SYD-YVR.

1,092 return seats per week which is 3 - 364 seater 744s.

The application is for Qantas or its subsidiaries but that is just standard application jargon by Qantas.

More info in this article plus a draft of the application dated 17th September.

Doesn't mean it will used year-round, but certainly gives Qantas the ability to offer flights whenever it wants up to the weekly cap.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-mulls-ong...medium=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper

So YVR may perhaps see the flying kangaroo more regularly after all!

Hate to be the Debbie downer all the time, but it looks like the letter from QF to Australian govt is an application for 3 weekly services they plan to operate. January 2015 and is not an application to extend the planned service to year round.

It seems to me the application is for ad hoc seasonal service not to exceed 1092 seats per week. What is the reference to fully utilizing the capacity by March 31, 2015?

Finally after reviewing many correspondence and applications filed to transport canada and Canadian transport agency, this application to Australian government is very casual language. I know the Aussie's are laid back, but this is quite the eye opener.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Cage

Hate to be the Debbie downer all the time, but it looks like the letter from QF to Australian govt is an application for 3 weekly services they plan to operate. January 2015 and is not an application to extend the planned service to year round.

It seems to me the application is for ad hoc seasonal service not to exceed 1092 seats per week. What is the reference to fully utilizing the capacity by March 31, 2015?

Finally after reviewing many correspondence and applications filed to transport canada and Canadian transport agency, this application to Australian government is very casual language. I know the Aussie's are laid back, but this is quite the eye opener.

All this does is allow QF to operate year-round up to 1092 seats per week at any time of year without having to re-apply each time. Valid for five years. The application does refer to "throughout the year" as well. The March 2015 reference infers that they plan to be fully utilising this capacity by then. This is the end of our 3rd quarter fiscal 2015. So it's really just market guidance indicating by the end of the 3rd quarter this capacity will be utilised. The January 2015 flights would fall into this period.

Yup rather casual language but that's apparently how it's done.

I am notoriously known as a Debbie Downer too. Nobody wants to hear "bad news" just cover your ears and eyes and run and just wish it away. But I appreciate your questioning of this too. It really does appear rather vague but according to my QF contacts it does appear YVR is actually in the cards for ongoing year-round flights. In the meantime I suspect seasonal regular flights (June-September and December - February) to cash in on the heavy traffic being noticed. This application will allow this.

In any event, the QF news on the surface can still be put into the "good news" category as even if this really is it... it is better than nothing. There is no way they are going to let AC have the route all to themselves forever!

Right now at YVR there is so much good news even the "bad stuff" (eg Virgin Atlantic) is just so minimal. With the UK stats showing how strong LHR is from a LF perceptive clearly VS wasn't doing well enough to stay.

[deasine]

Originally Posted by Canadian74

Why not MEL.... !!!

Originally Posted by trofirhen

... I asked the same question, and the answer is first that it would hurt the Sydney route yield,
and secondly that there just isn't the demand.... yet

Well SYD was always the flagship international hub for QF. Moreover, QF never has a limited fleet that a MEL-YVR route will *definitely* not work.

HOWEVER, if QF continues to operate this route, there may more encouragement for AC to operate a YVR-MEL route. Here are some reasons:

1. QF operating a 747 YVR-SYD even at lower frequencies will ultimately cause a shift in O&D passengers to QF on the route at ACs expense
2. QF can operate YVR-SYD, but also has a supporting domestic network in SYD to operate to other destinations beyond SYD including MEL, something AC does not as it does not have the adequate codeshare partnerships with Australian carriers
3. Given the supply increase and shift in O&D passengers explained in (1), AC will ultimately lose passengers and have a lower load factor if it keeps current capacity levels. AC could downguage the 777 to a 787 to keep load factors and profitability high.
4. AC can then introduce a 787 to MEL to compete with QFs supporting domestic network as per (2). But I would not expect this to be a daily frequency by any means.

Ultimately, an introduction of a 787 on both routes should allow AC to operate YVR-SYD and YVR-MEL at relatively high frequencies (not daily frequencies on both routes however). But this is speculative. Another option AC can and should explore is to codeshare with Virgin Australia in order to allow AC to have feed at both ends to better compete with QF, just as QF has feed at YVR with WS codeshare relationship.

[Johnny Aussie]

^
As much as I would love to see MEL-YVR nonstop, I just don't see the market viability right now. Maybe in just a few more years.

In any event, if it were to happen, I would be the route's first passenger!

When QF finally phases out its 744s, I would think year round YVR-SYD 787 flights will eventuate. Perhaps even up to daily.

[nname]

What about the possibility of MEL-SYD-YVR?

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Right now at YVR there is so much good news even the "bad stuff" (eg Virgin Atlantic) is just so minimal. With the UK stats showing how strong LHR is from a LF perceptive clearly VS wasn't doing well enough to stay.

I view VS pullout of YVR As neutral to good news story. I would rather have two strong stable competitors than 3 competitors with one being an irrational player and pulling the other two airlines into break even or loss positions.

Agreed YVR has witnessed a long string of good news stories. I am also hoping that YVR Takes to AC rouge the same way YYZ has accepted rouge on the long haul. I can easily imagine 4-6 TATL and 4-6 TPAC runs that are viable rouge destinations.

[deasine]

Originally Posted by nname

What about the possibility of MEL-SYD-YVR?

Well UA did that on a LAX-SYD-MEL with the old 747 (which now split into LAX-SYD on 777, LAX-MEL on a 787), and same with QF as they operate a LAX-JFK, but airlines avoid doing this because your domestic leg is flown as an international flight, meaning you can't pick up additional passengers. That means an airline is most likely running the domestic portion half empty, which is inefficient and a rather expensive operation.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

^
As much as I would love to see MEL-YVR nonstop, I just don't see the market viability right now. Maybe in just a few more years.

In any event, if it were to happen, I would be the route's first passenger!

When QF finally phases out its 744s, I would think year round YVR-SYD 787 flights will eventuate. Perhaps even up to daily.

Correct me if I am wrong, but all the 788 for qantas group are allocated to jetstar division. Also it appear that jetstar seat plan has 330+ seats on their 788 to AC 251 seats.

For this reason I don't think the jetstar configured 788 is a good fit for SYD-YVR route. If I was AC I would gladly go up against jetstar 788 because the economy seats are the same, jet stars business class is the same product as AC premium economy, and jetstar does not have a true business class product. All this in a very high yield route.

One other thing to note, AC and QF have a good interline relationship. In a YVR-SYD-ADL route the final leg is on QF but the ticketing airline is AC. With the prorate agreement between AC and QF there is no reason to involve virgin Australia.

[nname]

Originally Posted by deasine

Well UA did that on a LAX-SYD-MEL with the old 747 (which now split into LAX-SYD on 777, LAX-MEL on a 787), and same with QF as they operate a LAX-JFK, but airlines avoid doing this because your domestic leg is flown as an international flight, meaning you can't pick up additional passengers. That means an airline is most likely running the domestic portion half empty, which is inefficient and a rather expensive operation.

AC is selling the YVR-YYZ portion of AC33/34 though.. I wonder how that one works

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Canadian74

Why not MEL.... !!!

The problem with doing a MEL flight is that is it's not very complementary to SYD. Here let me explain.

To do MEL and SYD would require 788 service. Which in AC seating terms means about 500 seat, a significant increase from the current 279 seats and the recently introduced 77w services at 350 seats. A dual 788 operation require 4 aircraft for daily to both MEL and SYD. This would leave SYD services short for seats and the MEL services with too many seats.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by nname

AC is selling the YVR-YYZ portion of AC33/34 though.. I wonder how that one works

AC has domestic rights in canada to sell the seats. The aircraft arrive at domestic gate. Fort international arrivals, everyone has to get off the airplane to clear customs at first point arrival, therefore all YZ bound traffic clears in Vr and then reboards the same plane for YZ.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Cage

Correct me if I am wrong, but all the 788 for qantas group are allocated to jetstar division.

That is 100% correct but what QF does (like between AC and rouge) is transfer and reconfigure the layout to an appropriate mix based on the carrier.

The rumour is some or most of the QF/JQ 787s will end up at Qantas.

This may happen sooner than later. Most recently a few A330s have been / are being transferred from JQ to QF as the 763s are retired.