Next Municipal Election - Oct 27, 2014 - contenders - Page 6

eternallyme · #**101** Posted **Jul 10, 2014, 9:41 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

A lot depends on what happens with him and transit. If he actually sticks to his pledge to cancel the LRT then boom, he's not getting anything more than 25%, ever, and Orleans will reject him with an unbelievable force. We saw Ottawans reject Hudak in droves simply because he didn't unreservedly support it.

But if he does get with the program on LRT, avoids any of his past anti-French demagoguery, etc., he might do reasonably well, maybe 40% or so, but Watson will still win of course.

It also makes me wonder - where do Kanata and Barrhaven voters stand on LRT? They aren't getting it until Phase 3 at the earliest - do they not seem to mind, do they have a sense of jealousy and want it now (the Orleans position) or do they hate the idea due to taxes and spending (the rural position)?

1overcosc · #**102** Posted **Jul 10, 2014, 9:53 PM**

I have no idea, I don't actually know anyone out from out that way.

In the provincial election last month, both voter turnout & Liberal vote were way up in all of Ottawa, most significantly in Orleans. This, however, did not happen in Kanata, but it did in Barrhaven.

I haven't really heard anyone be opposed to LRT, other than Maguire, there really does seem to a strong consensus in favour. Even the CFRA/Ottawa Sun crowd seems to be pro-Phase 2 these days, or at the very least, they don't seem upset about it.

I imagine Maguire will drop his "Commuter rail" nonsense in favour of LRT, if he has any brain at all. As a non-political person, though, he might not get it.

I mean, commuter rail in Ottawa is useless as a core of the system. Using the ROW through Nepean as a line from Kanata North to Greenboro might have some merit as a supplement to Phase 2, but as a core of the system, it would fail hard. Its also impossible to serve Orleans with existing railways, because there ain't any! There's that old row through Navan but that's not Orleans at any stretch. In any case it's already been repurposes as a recreational trail.

The most I can see him doing that would be even close to the realm of practicality would be retaining all of Phase 2 rail with the exception of Bayshore-LF, redirecting those moneys to extending it from Baseline down to the rail ROW, then paying for a March-Greenboro O-Train by cancelling the Baseline & Kanata North BRTs. There might be some merits to that but it wouldn't save any money, and that seems to be his main goal.

m0nkyman · #**103** Posted **Jul 15, 2014, 4:01 AM**

Official campaign launch on July 24. http://www.thomasmcveigh.com/campaign_launch l would love to see some SSP folk there for it.

Cre47 · #**104** Posted **Jul 19, 2014, 2:32 PM**

Number of mayoral candidates now stands at 4. The 4th (who is a rural resident) one might get some CFRA nation and Sun viewer votes judging by the site but right now does not have anything written regarding transportation, probably the key issue right now.

http://www.darrenwood.org/

waterloowarrior · #**105** Posted **Jul 19, 2014, 5:19 PM**

I get the opposition to the garbage pickup every two weeks but not the green bin. Sure the contract sounds bad, but it seems to work fine in other municipalities I've lived in and seems to divert a lot of waste that would otherwise go in the garbage.

Cre47 · #**106** Posted **Jul 19, 2014, 10:55 PM**

Garbage pickup every two weeks is very much fine to me and the bin at home doesn't get full after two weeks. I find it a waste of money for pickup every week (actually I have the impression, I would need recycling pickup every week sometimes). The compost (or the green bin collect is done every week in Gatineau since every trunk designed for recycle pick-up and for garbage pick-up are each design for green bin waste pickup. And quite frankly, green bin pick-up should definitely be every week from April to October, because the brown bin at home is filled up fast in additional to frequent fill up brown bags with excessive neighbor hedges, branches, tree fruits etc, etc.

Anyways, I think you guys don't need to worry much about this guy's backward policies on waste / green bin pickups. He might not even get 1-2%. It might actually hurt more Maguire, since he too is basically more in line with the views of the CFRA nation/Sun viewers.

He might garner more attention if he can put up his transportation platform. Keep in mind, if you are against LRT, you are guaranteed defeat judging by the sounding defeats of the PC in Orleans, Ottawa West-Nepean and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.

eternallyme · #**107** Posted **Jul 19, 2014, 11:16 PM**

It makes me wonder - is someone going to propose to get going now on Phase 3 of LRT (i.e. to Kanata and Barrhaven) as well? If so, where to go first? Kanata is an easier extension in the Highway 417 ROW and provides a nice extension to the Canadian Tire Centre, but Barrhaven likely would have more all-day ridership due to the shape of the community.

J.OT13 · #**108** Posted **Jul 19, 2014, 11:35 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by eternallyme

It makes me wonder - is someone going to propose to get going now on Phase 3 of LRT (i.e. to Kanata and Barrhaven) as well? If so, where to go first? Kanata is an easier extension in the Highway 417 ROW and provides a nice extension to the Canadian Tire Centre, but Barrhaven likely would have more all-day ridership due to the shape of the community.

I feel that Barrhaven/Riverside South are already well served by buses. They have a brand new Transitway and it would be foolish to convert it within a few years of their initial completion.

Kanata on the other hand doesn't have any Transitways yet, so we could build rail right off the bat. And of course, Corel Centre. How is it that our two major sports facilities, the only places in town that attract over 20,000 people in one shot, don't seem to be a transit priority?

eternallyme · #**109** Posted **Jul 20, 2014, 1:56 AM**

The challenge in Kanata is its orientation is north-south, which is against the east-west flow of Ottawa as a whole, and it is long and fairly narrow. An LRT line on the conventional path would not obtain much local coverage and would be dependant on Park and Rides and feeder routes. As a result, it is fairly difficult to serve Kanata as a whole well, unless you had a cross-Kanata Transitway to supplement.

Barrhaven, on the other hand, would get high coverage (like 30-40% or more) with just a single LRT line right away.

J.OT13 · #**110** Posted **Jul 20, 2014, 2:35 AM**

It's unfortunate that Kanata has a N/S orientation, but I think that the ORT should be built as more of a BART type system; metro in the city, commuter rail in the boonies.

Doubt it will happen, but I would like to see a mayoral candidate propose to scrap all bus transit projects in favor of extending the ORT to Kanata. I wouldn't mind seeing a metro version N/S revived, with an airport connection and direct to downtown service via the tunnel.

Cre47 · #**111** Posted **Jul 20, 2014, 5:06 PM**

Robert White's platform posted on Gray's blog. Keep on splitting the anti-LRT vote. Though I doubt at the start he would get more than 5% of the votes anyways.

http://bulldogottawa.com/white-unveils-mayoral-platform/#more-18593

eternallyme · #**112** Posted **Jul 20, 2014, 6:04 PM**

They are making it easier and easier for Watson. The rural vote is only about 10-15% of all of Ottawa.

It also makes me think - had the Wynne government pushed for a Phase 3 now with extensions south and west, would the Liberals have flipped Nepean-Carleton and Carleton-Mississippi Mills? Both ridings have large rural portions with a Tea Party mentality, so a draw in the urban parts cannot win the seats though, they would need to win big in Kanata and Barrhaven (especially in C-MM, Jack Maclaren's views are very popular in Mississippi Mills and West Carleton).

I don't think this will reach the federal election though, since even the federal Conservatives seem supportive of the LRT plans.

As for Watson, how he can clinch it is to put Kanata and Barrhaven on his side. Would Phase 3 LRT succeed in doing it (although finding an additional $1.2 billion or so may be tough)?

acottawa · #**113** Posted **Jul 20, 2014, 6:57 PM**

So, phase 1 is a hole in the ground that won't open for 4 years (just before the 2018 election), nobody knows what impact it will have on ridership, how well the technology will hold up in the world's coldest capital, how well the transfers will work/not work.

Phase 2 has only existed as a plan since last October, costs at least 50% more than phase one (although a tender is still years away), has no agreed route, no specific funding commitments and is years away from being ready for construction to start.

And somebody is supposed to announce phase 3?

1overcosc · #**114** Posted **Jul 21, 2014, 2:36 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by eternallyme

They are making it easier and easier for Watson. The rural vote is only about 10-15% of all of Ottawa.

It also makes me think - had the Wynne government pushed for a Phase 3 now with extensions south and west, would the Liberals have flipped Nepean-Carleton and Carleton-Mississippi Mills? Both ridings have large rural portions with a Tea Party mentality, so a draw in the urban parts cannot win the seats though, they would need to win big in Kanata and Barrhaven (especially in C-MM, Jack Maclaren's views are very popular in Mississippi Mills and West Carleton).

I don't think this will reach the federal election though, since even the federal Conservatives seem supportive of the LRT plans.

As for Watson, how he can clinch it is to put Kanata and Barrhaven on his side. Would Phase 3 LRT succeed in doing it (although finding an additional $1.2 billion or so may be tough)?

If Wynne announced Barrhaven LRT, and the Liberals actually ran a real candidate, they could have flipped Nepean-Carleton. Even with their really bad candidate they still came a surprisingly close second there. Lisa MacLeod was only 8,000 votes ahead, down from the usual 15-20k.

1overcosc · #**115** Posted **Jul 21, 2014, 2:36 PM**

So we have Jim Watson running again, and 3 fringe candidates. Not much of an election.

That whole Landowners-Rights/CFRA/Sun group is only about 30% of the electorate, so even if they were unified behind a single candidate, they couldn't really win unless the other 70% was well-split. And that entire 70% is pretty solidly behind Watson. He has a very broad appeal, he reaches everybody from moderate fiscal conservatives all the way over to social democrats.

Cre47 · #**116** Posted **Jul 21, 2014, 10:27 PM**

Not sure if you guys noticed but Alex Cullen will try to re-gain his Bay Ward seat

Cre47 · #**117** Posted **Jul 21, 2014, 10:31 PM**

.

J.OT13 · #**118** Posted **Jul 26, 2014, 5:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by acottawa

So, phase 1 is a hole in the ground that won't open for 4 years (just before the 2018 election), nobody knows what impact it will have on ridership, how well the technology will hold up in the world's coldest capital, how well the transfers will work/not work.

Phase 2 has only existed as a plan since last October, costs at least 50% more than phase one (although a tender is still years away), has no agreed route, no specific funding commitments and is years away from being ready for construction to start.

And somebody is supposed to announce phase 3?

I doubt phase 1 will do much for ridership. but the "hole in the ground" is guaranteed to bring downtown to a whole new level of competitiveness vs. other big cities and the burbs.

By eliminating more than half the buses, it will allow the City to widen sidewalks, add bike lanes and make a much more pleasant environment.

It will create a few direct connections between buildings/subways, encourage developers to renovate their buildings and others to build, bigger and better complexes (around Lyon mostly).

As for the cost of phase 2, it might be 50% the cost of phase 1, but it will be nearly 3 times longer. The route is pretty much decided; we only need to agree with the NCC on whether we need to bury an extra 100-200 meters near Dominion and the grade separation of Place d'Orleans and Iris.

Finally, funding commitment. The Province has repeatedly said that they are fully committed to funding the 1 billion needed for phase 2. Furthermore, with the committed 14 billion transit fund outside the GTA, that actually translates into 2 billion of provincial money for Ottawa. I have no doubt the Feds will also give us their billion share as soon as we request it.

Cre47 · #**119** Posted **Jul 29, 2014, 10:02 PM**

Darren Wood now guaranteed of a sounding defeat in the elections. Though it was already expected

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/ottawa-wont-hit-the-transit-re-set-button-again

1overcosc · #**120** Posted **Jul 30, 2014, 11:25 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I have no doubt the Feds will also give us their billion share as soon as we request it.

Especially given the provincial election. It's now been proven that denying LRT money is a dangerous seat loser. Honestly, before June 12, I wouldn't have been that surprised if the Harper regime would have said no. They're really not big on infrastructure investment.