Quote:
Originally Posted by SLC Projects
Another slow day on the forum and since I was bored I thought I would ask the question, "What will SLC be like in ten years?......2024? What do you think the population will be? How many new skyscrapers/highrises? Any new pro sports teams? More Street Cars/Trax? Any major companies moving downtown?
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I think about this a lot and about the metro as a whole. We have to really appreciate the bigger picture of where we are now to even project what things may come. Utah has pretty much always been hit hardest by recessions and slower to pull out of them since the Great Depression. The Great Recession was the first time we really ended this pattern and were hit less hard and recovered extremely quickly. If you look at our unemployment numbers and the trajectory we should easily be under 3% unemployment by spring of next year (and unemployment never really gets much lower than that). We've gained these jobs back and have created many more to meet the population growth here and all the new groups of people entering the work place. If we keep making jobs at this rate we should get to a point where we are gonna need people to move to Utah to fill them and because much of the US is still slow in this recovery, it shouldn't be hard to bring people here for work. So I expect our population will growth much faster than has been projected. Already we are on course for 3,000,000 in Utah by the end of 2015.
In short, Utah is set to boom before other states and therefore, we may see the greater investment in our state that being part of a boom from start to finish can bring. This means more businesses expanding or moving here. This means more inventment in developing commercial real estate and lots of housing. So I think the fundamentals look really good for the whole metro which plays into things like having money to expand transportation and transit options as well as bringing in things like more professional sports teams.
Now focusing on Salt Lake City, once this Convention Center Hotel is announced and secured with a location and a design, we will end a chapter of building on a certain scale in downtown Salt Lake City. All the bigger scale projects to possibly be built like a MLB stadium won't ever be near Main Street (more likely near Granary or out on North Temple). We'll see the RDA really come into its own in redeveloping at a much smaller more urban scale that should prove less dangerous to historical structures. To put things into perspective, after the UPAC they are going to redo the smaller theatre across the street and instead of it costing over 200 million it will be under 20. So the scale and scattered nature of redevelopment downtown will resemble fixing a person's infected bodypart with precise medicine instead of cutting the whole arm off and building a new one.
National trends will, more than anything, determine if high paying companies want to move back into class A skyscrapers in downtowns or prefer business parks and Salt Lake City will be effected by that either way.
The politics will be interesting too. We are at a high point of unity between the mayor's office, the chamber of commerce and the LDS Church. After the Convention Center Hotel happens I don't see it as expedient that any of the three parties remain so joined at the hip. Last mayor's race the chamber didn't run a real Republican contender against Becker, that may change... I can also see Salt Lake learning from the convention center hotel incentive program and applying it corporations too dissuade them from cheaper alternatives like Lehi. There will also be the impending possibility of an annexation of South Salt Lake which would change the political dynamic in Salt Lake City (it's not hard to do in a city slightly under 200,000 people).
By 2024 much of our debt in bonds will be paid off. For instance, the majority of Frontlines 2015 will be paid off.
The timeline:
2015: Design and construction begins on the Convention Center Hotel.
2015: Federal Funding is secured for both the Provo BRT and Sugarhouse Expansion.
2015: The new Airport Terminal design is finalized.
2016: The UPAC and 111 skyscraper are completed.
2016: The funding is secured for the downtown 2nd south streetcar line.
2016: construction is completed late in the year for the S line expansion.
2016: Construction begins on the New Airport Terminal and Parking Garage.
2017: completion of the convention center hotel (a new tallest).
2017: Ridership on FrontRunner hits 20,000. Light Rail / Streetcar ridership hits 75,000.
2018:large commercial skyscraper is announced (a new tallest).
2018: downtown streetcar on 2nd is complete.
2019: the new airport terminal opens with expedited plans for the island concourse.
2020: completion of new tallest commercial skyscraper.
2024: The airport buildout is complete with the island concourse and underground people mover.
2024: The population is 3,600,000
2024: FrontRunner ridership is 30,000 and light rail / streetcar is 90,000.
2024: Salt Lake City secures MLB or NFL team (steal it from another city).