Rapid Transit

[bigguy1231]

Originally Posted by markbarbera

CBC Hamitlon has an interesting story on this topic here.

It is accompaniesd with a poll question, "Should Andrea Horwath stay on as leader of the Ontario NDP?" as of 2:00PM, 358 answered "yes" (27.2%), 827 said "no" (62.9%), and 130 (9.9%) are unsure.

It's not about what outsiders think of the NDP to NDP members.

Historically, the NDP never throws their leader under the bus after an election loss. They will continue to support her until she decides it's time to leave. Considering they increased their popular vote and maintained their number of seats they will be happy with her performance.

[ScreamingViking]

No doubt though that their power in the legislature is substantially lower. I don't see a reason for Horwath to step aside though, as she can still be an effective leader and I don't think there's anyone as capable right now in the NDP.

But I do hope there is more constructive debate now, and less finger pointing. I also hope she does more to advocate on behalf of Hamilton... despite what's involved leading the party, she still has a responsibility to her constituents.

[thistleclub]

How Wynne can repair Liberals’ public transit credibility
(Spacing, John Lorinc, June 16 2014)

With premier Kathleen Wynne promising to move quickly to deliver a throne speech, re-introduce the budget that won her last week’s election and appoint a new cabinet, she’s got a superb opportunity to re-build the Liberals’ tattered credibility on the public transit file, which, if we are to believe her campaign rhetoric, will be a central focus of her government’s program.

From where I sit, Wynne can choose to make three moves that would go some distance to proving that the Liberals are genuine about tackling gridlock:

• shuffle Glen Murray out of transportation and infrastructure and give the portfolio to a steady, experienced minister;
• move swiftly to reform the governance of Metrolinx with legislation that adds elected municipal officials from across the GTHA to the board;
• enter into negotiations with the two other parties to adopt a tamper proof financial oversight system for the $29 billion transportation trust fund.

Read it in full here.

[thistleclub]

While the budget still has yet to pass, and the funding parameters/criteria remain abstract at best, Lorinc's third point is critical, particularly in light of government's sub-optimal track record on accountability.

The specifics of the Big Move funding mechanism will hopefully be articulated in the upcoming budget bill (to be introduced in early July) as they were not outlined in the May Budget. In fact, Bill 194 does not seem to contain any references to transit, and only mentions infrastructure with regard to the so-called "Trillium Trust Act", a pool of public money that would be used "to fund, directly or indirectly, costs incurred in connection with constructing or acquiring infrastructure or other tangible capital assets." This is the reserve that would fund the Big Move inside the GTHA and other infrastructure needs outside of it.

Even without having a fix on the specifics, however, it doesn't seem likely that Hamilton would pay in without getting something back. The ongoing "either Hamilton will pay $X million and get LRT or Hamilton will pay $X million and get nothing in return" formulation has always seemed a bit dubious to me.

There are a number of active transportation/Big Move outlets for which Hamilton might be funding-eligible, and a number of variables that will impact Hamilton's prospects for LRT, not least among them the heightened competition now that the province is looking to carve up $15 million rather than $34 million.

And of course council's determination to pay (next to) nothing for a system upgrade.

[CaptainKirk]

Originally Posted by thistleclub

... it doesn't seem likely that Hamilton would pay in without getting something back. The ongoing "either Hamilton will pay $X million and get LRT or Hamilton will pay $X million and get nothing in return" formulation has always seemed a bit dubious to me.

Don't forget that Hamilton's all day GO will cost over $2B, so I guess they could justify making us pay and still deny us our LRT.

[SteelTown]

*IF*, and I stress if, the city does have to pay a portion of the capital cost I'd imagine the province will allow the City to pay after the LRT is completed and all the extra assessment money collected would go towards the city's portion of the capital cost.

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

*IF*, and I stress if, the city does have to pay a portion of the capital cost I'd imagine the province will allow the City to pay after the LRT is completed and all the extra assessment money collected would go towards the city's portion of the capital cost.

Out of curiosity, why do you think this? Is there an example of Metrolinx and the province doing this with other projects in other municipalities? It feels unlikely to me, but if there’s clear precedent, then I guess it’s a possibility.

[markbarbera]

The recently announced $3B expansion of Toronto's Bloor-Danforth subway line has a funding split of $1.5B from the province, $660 million from the feds, and the reminder funded by the City of Toronto. Toronto plans to raise the funds by implementing a phased-in transit tax supplement to the municipal tax base to counter carrying 30-year debt for their portion of the capital cost.

More information can be found in this article from the Toronto Star.

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

Is there an example of Metrolinx and the province doing this with other projects in other municipalities? It feels unlikely to me, but if there’s clear precedent, then I guess it’s a possibility.

KPMG’s Big Move Implementation Economics: Revenue Tool Profiles (Mar 2013) considered tax increment financing to possess “modest overall potential as a revenue source.” They note:

Tax increment financing (“TIF”) is a public finance technique used by local government jurisdictions to fund infrastructure initiatives and stimulate economic development in designated geographic areas. TIFs work by leveraging future tax revenue increases to finance current infrastructure projects. The mechanism effectively dedicates the incremental tax revenue between the assessed value of designated areas (“TIF zones”) prior to the development and its assessed value over time. By doing this, future tax gains are leveraged to finance the present costs of eligible improvements in designated areas.

This financing technique was originally used in California as a way to stimulate development in blighted areas and have since been authorized in 49 of the 50 US states.

TIFs are much less prevalent in Canada. In Ontario, the Province only recently approved legislation to permit TIF on a pilot basis for the Toronto-York-Spadina Subway Extension and the West Don Lands redevelopment initiative.

The city would basically allow the province to take any increases in property tax along the B-Line for a period of 30 to 50 years, basically the lifecycle of the infrastructure. That’s simple and invisible enough, though this method of financing would likely require a detailed and rigorous analysis to back up projections, which would potentially buy the government more time before having to invest.

[thistleclub]

Megacity mayoral candidate John Tory is another evangelist for the TIF cause.

Toronto Star, May 27 2014:

Tory would build a new rail line west from Eglinton Ave. to the Airport Corporate Centre in Mississauga.

Typically with transit capital projects, the city must come up one-third of the cost — which Tory has put at $2.5 billion for his plan.

Tory said those funds could be raised over 30 years with what’s called tax increment financing. Provincial legislation introduced in 2006 allows the city to borrow on future property revenue.

His team says three upcoming developments — in Liberty Village, the downtown core, and the former Unilever site just west of the Don River — have been assessed and would cover the cost.

Former finance minister Greg Sorbara told the Star the tool hasn’t been used since it was introduced, but was meant for projects exactly like the one Tory is proposing.


Sorbara’s Tax Increment Financing Act can be found as Schedule Z.7 of the omnibus Bill 151, Budget Measures Act, 2006 (No. 2)

[HillStreetBlues]

Thanks, thistleclub. Definitely does seem like a promising possibility.

[thistleclub]

Not a quick-win option, however. Expect delays for the feasibility study, consideration of the feasibility study and, given ministerial approval, the designation of a TIF district.

Related detail from the Rapid Ready report:

In terms of financial benefits to the City, Canadian Urban Institute (CUI) estimates that three times the number of development projects are likely to occur along the corridor within the same timeframe with LRT as compared to without LRT (e.g. 108 projects versus 32). If that were to occur, there would be an associated tax benefit from new development estimated at $22 million. Building permit fees and development charges (existing development exemptions removed) are estimated at $30 million. The assessed value of existing properties along the corridor is expected to increase by $29 million over a fifteen year period; however, this is a benefit to the property owner with no direct financial gain to the City.

LRT may have an added financial benefit to the City as the implementation of LRT could help address the backlog of rehabilitation, replacement and reconstruction capital works needs in the corridor, which are not programmed in the future capital budget at this time, at an estimated value of up to $79 million.

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by thistleclub

The specifics of the Big Move funding mechanism will hopefully be articulated in the upcoming budget bill (to be introduced in early July) as they were not outlined in the May Budget. In fact, Bill 194 does not seem to contain any references to transit, and only mentions infrastructure with regard to the so-called "Trillium Trust Act", a pool of public money that would be used "to fund, directly or indirectly, costs incurred in connection with constructing or acquiring infrastructure or other tangible capital assets." This is the reserve that would fund the Big Move inside the GTHA and other infrastructure needs outside of it.

Looks like that's all we're getting for now. The Star reports:

[Finance Minister Charles] Sousa is to reintroduce his May 1 budget next month — the Liberals are not even bothering to print new copies of the spending plan and will recycle the old books.

[thistleclub]

Arrivederci, Glen. The Star suggests that the Ontario Liberals will soon name their seventh Minister of Transportation since 2003, just part of an upcoming cabinet shuffle:


Another first-time minister Steven Del Duca, the MPP for Vaughan and one of the Liberals’ rising stars, succeeds Glen Murray at a restructured Transportation ministry.

Del Duca, one of four newcomers in the 27-member cabinet, will oversee the $15-billion transit investment in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area as well as the $14 billion in new transportation infrastructure in the rest of Ontario.

“The premier is putting an emphasis on the government’s priorities,” a senior government official said Monday, speaking on background....

Murray moves to Environment, taking over for veteran Jim Bradley, who will stick around as minister without portfolio and dispense advice and wisdom in cabinet.

Brad Duguid, who had been at Training Colleges and Universities, is getting a promotion.

Duguid, the Scarborough Centre MPP, takes over a reconstituted Ministry of Economic Development, Employment, and Infrastructure. He had served briefly at a smaller economic development department and at the old ministry of energy and infrastructure.

Gaining new authority is Research and Innovation Minister Reza Moridi, a nuclear scientist who will also run Training, Colleges and Universities.

The Pan Am Games, which are less than 13 months away, get a fresh minister after spate of challenges.

Michael Coteau, is the new Tourism, Culture and Sports and Pan Am minister.

Coteau, MP for Don Valley East, replaces Michael Chan, who moves to Citizenship, Immigration, and Trade.

[thistleclub]

Via CBC/Toronto Star/CP: MPP Mitzie Hunter (former CivicAction CEO, LRT subway champion and, most recently, Parliamentary Assistant to MCSS Minister McMeekin) will assume the role of Associate Minister of Finance, responsible for the forthcoming Ontario Retirement Pension Plan. To be rolled out by 2017, the ORPP is anticipated to create "new pools of capital... available for Ontario-based projects such as building roads, bridges and new transit."

[SteelTown]

Ted McMeekin got a nice promotion as Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing. Should do well for Hamilton.

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

Ted McMeekin got a nice promotion as Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing. Should do well for Hamilton.

A good lay-up for a mayoral bid.

[thistleclub]

The Globe & Mail's Adrian Morrow weighs in on the cabinet shuffle:

In one of the most rapid recent rises in Ontario politics, Vaughan’s Steven Del Duca – a relative rookie with less than two years in the legislature – has vaulted off the backbench and into the high-profile transportation portfolio.

Mr. Del Duca has proven himself a pitbull in the legislature, where he serves as one of the Liberals’ three attack dogs. Now, he will have to bring the same toughness to smashing gridlock.

He will be tasked with spending the $29-billion Ms. Wynne has pledged for public transit, highways and bridges. It is one of the government’s priority files and, as evidenced by the non-stop battle at Toronto city council on subways versus LRTs, can be one of the most fractious.

Mr. Del Duca’s job will be to juggle a long list of projects, ensuring all are moving forward, while settling disputes at municipalities and between local politicians and the province.

Metrolinx and Queen’s Park have historically been timid in the face of local bickering – a skittishness that has delayed transit-building in Toronto for the past four years. With a majority government backing him, Mr. Del Duca’s greatest challenge will be to show he can be authoritative in deciding which projects will be built and how, and then get them moving forward.

He may face his first major hurdle later this year. Toronto’s mayoral race is divided on transit, with some candidates pushing for a return to an LRT project in Scarborough and others looking to tear up existing plans for a new downtown subway line. No matter who wins, Mr. Del Duca is likely to face more bickering at council.

Glen Murray has been dropped from his once-powerful perch at transportation and infrastructure, shuffled to the low-profile environment ministry.

There are two probable reasons for the change. First, Mr. Murray came into transportation wanting to re-examine the Big Move – a massive transit plan years in the making. That earned the ire of a Premier’s office already wary of how changing plans have stalled transit building in the province.

Then, Mr. Murray turned a public relations win into a disaster last summer. On the day the province announced it would build a subway extension into Scarborough, he got into a public war of words with Toronto Transit Commission chair Karen Stintz that had to be resolved on a TV talk-show.

While Mr. Murray’s big public persona is badly needed in an often dry government, it seemed to become a liability in an already-contentious portfolio.

[thistleclub]

An adult conversation about transit, redux
(Spacing.ca, John Lorinc, June 23 2014)

Last week, I proposed in this space three key moves that Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals could make to signal their seriousness about funding GTA transit expansion. But if the re-elected premier wants to take things to the next level and make a bold and region-altering move, here’s a fourth: Implement the revenue tools recommended last year by Metrolinx (HST, gas tax, parking levy, development charges) as a means of making up the approximately $20 billion gap between what the government has pledged to invest in transit and the sum required to complete the Big Move over the next twenty years.

If there was ever a propitious moment to make, well, a big move, we’re absolutely in the middle of it. In almost 20 years of covering urban affairs in Toronto, I can’t remember another opportunity quite this ripe.

Consider the architecture: politically, Wynne not only finds herself at the helm of a solid, urban-based majority, while she also faces two opposition parties in shambles. The seat-reduced Tories will be leaderless — and toothless — as of July 2. The NDP’s Andrea Horwath hasn’t yet had her head handed to her, but the election results suggest that progressives abandoned her pocket-book electoral agenda in droves. It’s an alignment perfectly suited to pushing ahead with important but unpopular decisions.

Fiscally, Wynne is promising the sun, the moon and the stars. But her proposed spending levels, and the associated deficit projections, are unsustainable. Bay Street and the bond rating agencies have already started pressuring the Wynne government to dial back the borrowing required to implement her progressive agenda. And with the threat of higher debt servicing costs added to Ontario’s staggering $295 billion in outstanding debt (yes, you’re reading that number correctly), the government will yield – it’s not a matter of “if”, it’s a matter of “when.”

Wynne, in short, will face a fork in the road: either adopt a far more modest agenda than the one she ran on, or impose new taxes to make up the shortfall.


Read it in full here

[movingtohamilton]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

Ted McMeekin got a nice promotion as Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing. Should do well for Hamilton.

Why? Do we have data indicating a correlation between "doing well for Hamilton" and his previous portfolio?