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Originally Posted by lrt's friend
I truly believe that the funding for the tunnel would have been available.
The issue downtown would have been temporary until the tunnel opened and most of the buses removed from downtown. The NSLRT would have eliminated some buses earlier.
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The 2003 TMP and the subsequent N-S LRT EA never envisaged a tunnel. Indeed it was specifically rejected in both studies as they felt a need to respond to public suggestions for one arising out of the public consultation processes.
We have to recall that in this era Ottawa was still in the thrall of the BRT lobby. The 2003 TMP upheld the policy dating from early RMOC times of having BRT as the primary element of rapid transit system. LRT was a distinctly secondary element on corridors like the O-Train, Carling, Rideau, E-W bypass, etc.
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The NSLRT would have also directed development southward instead of continuing to build out in Cumberland and Stittsville where rapid transit is well beyond our finances. The demand for transit would have built faster than it is occurring without it.
The loss of savings from the Confederation Line assumes that it would have been delayed. I argue that the Confederation Line could have been built just as fast as it is today regardless of whether the NSLRT was built or not.
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I don't see how you can reasonably argue that. Let's just look at the timelines in the hypothetical N-S LRT timeline and the real timeline.
The N-S LRT, if built according to schedule, would have opened in 2009. That's already a year *after* the 2008 TMP which proposed the Confederation Line. The point here is that even if was acknowledged very soon after the N-S LRT opening that its downtown arrangement was a shambles, we'd at best be then in 2009 where we were in reality in 2007.
Far more likely is that we as a city would have spent 2010-2012 arguing, debating, recriminating, seeing off Andy Haydonesque demands for a bus tunnel, etc., before finally deciding what to do and what to put in the 2013 TMP. Only *now* would we have started any kind of planning for a Confederation Line. Well that's a good 5 years behind where we actually are now.
On top of that, you're assuming we would have gone for a rail tunnel in light of buses jamming up light rail and vice versa downtown. I doubt that very much. Far more likely in my estimation is that we would have gone about looking into ways to make a surface solution work, and one group in particular would have been in a position to say "I told you so" and probably get listened to.
We basically would have found ourselves building the downtown part of the Friends of the O-Train proposal. First on the list would be extension to Hurdman and the construction of a bus terminal at Bayview so as to kick most of the buses out of downtown. But thirty two-car trains an hour would be straining to deliver the needed capacity, so the next thing to do would be to try to find ways to extend the platform lengths for longer trains, including possibly relocating trackwork.
This would not have been cheap, but less expensive and certainly quicker than a tunnel. Even so, all this would easily have occupied another few years following the opening of the N-S LRT in 2009.
As a consequence, only about now (or last year, say) would we even be talking about extending LRT further out along the Transitway.