Quote:
Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright
This is simply not a real concern. Let's look at the actual outcome of what would happen in such a scenario where the remaining surface lots near downtown are wiped out by development. The demand for new Class A space is simply never going to just go away and we know the city of Chicago (a city with a reputation for forcing — down people's throats) isn't going to be like "well, too bad, we can't have any more office towers, looks like we are going to — the economy just because WLCO says we have to" so there are three possible outcomes:
1. The CBD growth simply finds other outlets for growth. The massive sites to the south of downtown along the river, PMD's, etc.
2. The very —, 20 floor, office buildings you are complaining about right now will be razed and much much taller buildings will be constructed.
3. The WLCO wall you are talking about really isn't that politically influential and the city will just jam more tall towers down the NIMBY bastards throats.
In no scenario do I see the City of Chicago just giving up and resigning themselves to some absurd situation where no more office towers can be built. It's just absurd to even suggest that we would have a hard time finding more space for new towers. We would either go up or out whether it be into other, previously undevelopable, areas or by ramming growth down the throats of NIMBYs.
This is a much better argument. I would say that 20 floor buildings are a good interim until a future where the number of remaining lots is much lower, especially office towers since they are easier to raze than residential which may go condo and become immovable. I just see us at least 10-15 years away from a reality where the near west loop is out of developable parcels. By that time the junkier econobox office buildings built during the last boom will be ripe for the razing (rather than spending out the — to retrofit them) and will be replaced by much larger building.
However, it's not unreasonable to think that this will simply never be a problem because developers of true Class A towers (i.e. bigger than 30 stories) have shown no hesitation to pursue challenging sites which Chicago has absolutely no shortage of. Who would have thought that the Riverside sites would both be on the short list for massive towers 10 years ago?
When you look at the number of possible sites over railways and shoehorned in along the river (Wolf Point: 2 towers, 2-3 possible towers around Post Office, The entire platform south of Union Station, the entire platform north of Olgavie which is nearly three square blocks, Union Station itself where there have been rumblings of possibly razing the crappy 70's tower there and replacing it as part of a Union Station rebuild, etc) it is hard to imagine there ever being a shortage of sites in that area. The fact of the matter is that, if we ever reach that point, we will be booming on the same scale that NYC is booming on right now and we will simply have the land values necessary to create new office districts simply by building over infrastructure, building higher, or plowing into previously anti-growth areas. Under no circumstance will Chicago stop growing simply because some whiny Naperville transplants live in the West Loop.
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The econo-boxes built now aren't going anywhere for quite some time. Thinking that a new $200 million building could be targeted for demolition 15 years from now is overly optimistic; although certainly not impossible. More likely, historic buildings which should be preserved with appropriate retrofits (hotels, student housing, standard residential) will be demolished or altered beyond recognition. The CBD is moving westward towards the train stations and has been doing so for the last century. LaSalle Street is just the next block in succession in the retreat from the traditional core. There is of course plenty of office space still remaining in the Central Loop and always will be, and there are parking garages and mid-century buildings that could easily bite the dust for something better, but the overall trend for Class A space is shifting westward.
A look at the current crop of major office proposals that have come forward recently:
-151 N Franklin
-200 W Randolph (just cancelled this month)
-150 N Riverside
-River Pointe
-Wolf Point
-Kruek+Sexton project
-401 S Wacker
-Various West Loop Econoboxes
Every one of these buildings is west of the Loop proper and within a 5-15 minute walk of Union and/or Ogilvie. Large buildings have been proposed for this area since the 1980's, some of which were higher than 50 floors. Even in the last boom prior to 2008, there were larger proposals for the West Loop parking lots. The challenging sites along the river have been targeted for more than a decade for major development. Let us not forget that in 2001, The Medici Towers proposal was approved for the 150 N Riverside site; and with 2 buildings, had a higher FAR than what is proposed now, albeit in a mixed use format. Although, its a good thing The Medici project was not built as it was architecturally atrocious, and 150 N Riverside is a far superior design for the block.
Its not that low land values are holding this area back, its just lack of ambition. These West Loop empty opportunity sites are large and easy to quickly develop with little to no prior demolition needed, making them perfect for large econoboxes where a developer can lease 1 tenant to take the vast majority of the space, open the building in 14 months and make a quick profit on a sale to a REIT. Presently, West Loop serves as a low-risk developer ATM, and let's not forget that econobox proposals still pop-up elsewhere from time to time, such as 200 W Randolph.
And WLCO is not just political opposition, they have already set the context for everything west of Halsted, which is now largely low and mid-rise and almost exclusively condos south of Randolph; which is not going away and will continue to provide opposition to any major commercial projects that upset what they view as the 'residential nature' of that neighborhood. Look at what happened with Gateway project hotel and the fierce opposition that it was met with. While this city has a history of shoving things down the throat of NIMBYs as you mentioned, this city also has aldermanic prerogative where elected officials have control of development in far greater capacity than is typical of many other cities in this country. As long as aldermanic prerogative rules the day, NIMBYs will have a control valve and veto power over potential development plans.
We need to plan for the future, and with all the money spent on transit subsidies and the ~$2 billion thus far put into midwest high-speed rail projects, we tax payers should be getting the maximum return on investment. Higher densities in the West Loop is also in the best interests of the entire region as any new space developed here is immediately transit accessible to the majority of the region's 10 million people by way of Metra, CTA and Amtrak.
I'll step off my soap box now...
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