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Posted Apr 20, 2012, 1:55 PM
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Eurosceptic
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 24,141
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I can't believe nobody here is talking about the historic population gain experienced by the Pittsburgh Metropolitan Area (and Allegheny County in particular) from 2010-2011 according to the Census Estimates released a couple weeks ago.
Metro Pittsburgh started growing again a few years ago after decades of almost uninterrupted population loss, and a gain of 3,700 year-over-year for the MSA is the largest gain yet. As Pittsburgh is still unfortunately in "last place" amongst major metros in the volume of international migrants... and Pittsburgh is the only major metro that experiences more deaths than births... the population gain is driven by strong domestic in-migration that overcame the birth deficit. 3,700 may seem meager compared to other regions' gains, but it is a testament to how successful Pittsburgh is becoming at attracting new residents from elsewhere in the US. In fact, Pittsburgh is now experiencing the highest per-capita rate of net in-migration amongst any major metro in the North (excepting the federal jobs machine of DC).
Of particular interest is that Pittsburgh MSA's job growth is now primarily driven by the core county of Allegheny. Overall growth was dragged down by some of the outlying suburban counties. However, even the population losers were on the plus side of domestic migration. Of the 7 MSA counties, only tiny, rural Armstrong posted net domestic out-migration.
This is a remarkable turnaround for the region. Greater Pittsburgh probably hasn't seen net domestic in-migration since the 1920s.
Here's the article from the Post-Gazette... followed by numbers:
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12096/1221915-455.stm
Quote:
Region's population turnaround has lasted and grown
Relative strength of economy a cause
Thursday, April 05, 2012
By Gary Rotstein, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
It wasn't long ago that Allegheny County was a drag on the region's population.
Numbers being released today by the U.S. Census Bureau show the exact opposite now to be true, with the county and Pittsburgh metropolitan area apparently in the midst of their healthiest population trend in decades.
The first report since the official April 1, 2010, census of Americans estimated that the population of the seven-county metro area increased by 3,461 between that head count and July 1, 2011. The metropolitan area's population was pegged at 2,359,746. Allegheny County did even better, with an estimated increase of 3,718 over those 15 months, to 1,227,066.
Such increases are small compared with most urban areas around the country, but they take on a positive shine locally when contrasted with the past half-century of sustained population losses. It was only between 2009 and 2010 that the first slight uptick began to emerge in estimates for the region and its hub county, and the new numbers suggest the turnaround has lasted and grown stronger.
"I'm not surprised by it at all," said Allegheny County Executive Rich Fitzgerald, when told of the numbers. "There's a lot of growth going on in the economy that's borne out by the unemployment statistics and jobs numbers, and that typically is followed by population. ... We could see it had turned, and I think it's going to continue to turn, because the urban core -- the county itself -- is desirable again."
When broken down by the components of population change -- births and deaths and migration -- it was clear that for both the county and region the main difference from the past is that more people are moving in from outside the area than leaving.
That net migration gain is assumed to result from the relative strength of the Pittsburgh area's economy in recent years. The seven-county local unemployment rate of 6.7 percent in February compared to Pennsylvania's rate of 7.6 percent and a national rate of 8.3 percent, a pattern that has favored the local area for five-plus years.
Allegheny County's status as a net acquirer of people is the biggest change taking place in the regional population. It had been common in recent decades for Butler and Washington counties to gain residents, as they did again between 2010 and 2011, but it has been rarer -- or nonexistent -- for many years in Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Fayette and Westmoreland counties.
Just five years earlier, when the census estimates showed a regional loss of 10,895 people between 2005 and 2006, Allegheny County's own decrease was responsible for 9,625 of that drop.
Mr. Fitzgerald said he's aware of both large and small employers recently adding jobs, a particular boost when considering the increasing number of students attending colleges within the county and interested in staying here after graduation -- but only if career opportunities exist.
David Martin -- a Realtor, investment adviser and lending specialist in the North Hills since 1987 -- said the population numbers confirm what he has been seeing. Just Wednesday, he was dealing with three different households recently returning to Allegheny County from Florida for varying economic and family reasons.
"We had an entire generation that had to leave because of the mills closing," Mr. Martin noted. "Now people see how pretty cool this place is. The pace here is slower, the success is better and the number of movies being made here in Pittsburgh doesn't hurt our ambassadorship. There's a number of strands that build the rope."
Chris Briem, a University of Pittsburgh demographer and regional economist, pointed to numbers suggesting it may have been the 1920s since the last time Allegheny County had any sustained period of more people moving in than moving out. Consistently for decades, it has lost people to both adjacent counties and distant cities.
He said it's possible that the county and region are in the early stages of a long-term trend of modest growth, which could have been viewed as inevitable because the dire manufacturing setbacks that caused population losses among the worst in the nation had dimmed as a factor.
"The question is what happens as the nation as a whole moves past the recession, as clearly a lot more job gains will happen elsewhere," he said.
Gary Rotstein: [email protected] or 412-263-1255.
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Pittsburgh MSA
2010: 2,356,285
2011: 2,359,746
Numerical difference: +3,461
Percent difference: +0.1%
Quote:
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Originally Posted by DBR96A
Here's how the counties in the Pittsburgh MSA shake out individually...
Allegheny County
2010: 1,223,348
2011: 1,227,066
Change: +3,718
Armstrong County
2010: 68,941
2011: 68,568
Change: -373
Beaver County
2010: 170,539
2011: 170,414
Change: -125
Butler County
2010: 183,862
2011: 184,848
Change: +986
Fayette County
2010: 136,606
2011: 136,097
Change: -509
Washington County
2010: 207,820
2011: 208,282
Change: +462
Westmoreland County
2010: 365,169
2011: 364,471
Change: -698
Pittsburgh MSA
2010: 2,356,285
2011: 2,359,746
Change: +3,461
Pittsburgh MSA (minus Allegheny County)
2010: 1,132,937
2011: 1,132,680
Change: -257
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...
Components of Population Change for Metro Pittsburgh
Corresponding annual rates under raw numbers
Allegheny County
2011: 1,227,066
Change: +3,718
Rate: 1.8
Natural Increase: -726
Rate: -0.6
Births: 16,194
Rate: 10.5
Deaths: 16,920
Rate: 11.1
Net Migration: 4,524
Rate: 2.4
Domestic: 2,868
Rate: 1.3
International: 1,656
Rate: 1.1
Armstrong County
2011: 68,568
Change: -373
Rate: -4.7
Natural Increase: -246
Rate: -2.9
Births: 853
Rate: 9.9
Deaths: 1,099
Rate: 12.8
Net Migration: -121
Rate: -1.8
Domestic: -150
Rate: -2.1
International: 29
Rate: 0.3
Beaver County
2011: 170,414
Change: -125
Rate: -1.7
Natural Increase: -416
Rate: -2.0
Births: 2,158
Rate: 10.1
Deaths: 2,574
Rate: 12.1
Net Migration: 306
Rate: 0.4
Domestic: 287
Rate: 0.3
International: 19
Rate: 0.1
Butler County
2011: 184,848
Change: +986
Rate: 4.4
Natural Increase: 15
Rate: 0.0
Births: 2,238
Rate: 9.7
Deaths: 2,223
Rate: 9.7
Net Migration: 993
Rate: 4.5
Domestic: 947
Rate: 4.3
International: 46
Rate: 0.1
Fayette County
2011: 136,097
Change: -509
Rate: -2.9
Natural Increase: -618
Rate: -3.6
Births: 1,662
Rate: 9.8
Deaths: 2,280
Rate: 13.4
Net Migration: 125 
Rate: 0.7
Domestic: 74
Rate: 0.4
International: 51
Rate: 0.3
Washington County
2011: 208,282
Change: 462
Rate: 1.8
Natural Increase: -532
Rate: -2.1
Births: 2,530
Rate: 9.7
Deaths: 3,062
Rate: 11.8
Net Migration: 1,007
Rate: 3.9
Domestic: 1,006
Rate: 4.0
International: 1
Rate: 0.0
Westmoreland County
2011: 364,471
Change: -698
Rate: -1.7
Natural Increase: -1,341
Rate: -3.0
Births: 4,064
Rate: 8.9
Deaths: 5,405
Rate: 11.9
Net Migration: 679
Rate: 1.4
Domestic: 676
Rate: 1.5
International: 3
Rate: -0.1
Pittsburgh MSA
2011: 2,359,746
Change: +3,461
Natural Increase: -3,864
Births: 29,699
Deaths: 33,563
Net Migration: 7,513
Domestic: 5,708
International: 1,805 ...
Let's take a look at the populations of some nearby areas and determine the growth for different regional units...
New Castle Micropolitan Area
2010: 91,108
2011: 90,535
Change: -537 So this gives us the CSA
Pittsburgh CSA
2010: 2,447,393
2011: 2,450,281
Change: +2,888 Population growth for the CSA will probably lag behind the MSA for the foreseeable future due to Lawrence County's weakness.
...
Now let's take a look at the Pittsburgh Designated Market Area... which is our "media market".
Media in Pittsburgh - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Pittsburgh CSA
2010: 2,447,393
2011: 2,450,281
Change: +2,888 + the Morgantown, WV MSA... which ranked amongst the top 50 fastest growing MSAs this year with 2% growth
Monongalia County, WV
2010: 96,189
2011: 98,528
Change: +2,339 Preston County, WV
2010: 33,520
2011: 33,723
Change: +203 Morgantown, WV MSA
2010: 129,709
2011: 132,251
Change: +2,542 Now we'll add the rest of the counties...
Garrett County, MD
2010: 30,097
2011: 30,051
Change: -46 Clarion County
2010: 39,988
2011: 40,013
Change: +25 Greene County
2010: 38,686
2011: 38,623
Change: -63 Indiana County
2010: 88,880
2011: 89,298
Change: +418 Venango County
2010: 54,984
2011: 54,683
Change: -301 that gives us...
Pittsburgh DMA
2010: 2,828,737
2011: 2,835,200
Change: +6,463 ...
Now let's check out the Pittsburgh Economic Area...
This measure includes the 10-county region served by the Southwestern Pennsylvania Commission (Pittsburgh CSA + Greene + Indiana), Metro Weirton-Steubenville, Metro Wheeling and a few other counties in OH and WV.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis defines Economic Areas as metropolitan or micropolitan areas that serve as regional centers of economic activity and the counties that are economically related to the nodes.
Here goes...
10 county Southwestern Pennsylvania Commission region
2010: 2,574,959
2011: 2,578,202
Change: +3,243 Now we'll add the components of Weirton-Steubenville MSA
Jefferson County, OH
2010: 69,709
2011: 68,828
Change: -881 Brooke County, WV
2010: 24,069
2011: 23,844
Change: -225 Hancock County, WV
2010: 30,676
2011: 30,571
Change: -105 Weirton-Steubenville MSA
2010: 124,454
2011: 123,243
Change: -1,221 Now the Wheeling MSA...
Belmont County, OH
2010: 70,400
2011: 70,151
Change: -249 Marshall County, WV
2010: 33,107
2011: 32,800
Change: -307 Ohio County, WV
2010: 44,443
2011: 44,246
Change: -197 Wheeling MSA
2010: 147,950
2011: 147,197
Change: -753 ...and the three leftover counties...
Monroe County, OH
2010: 14,642
2011: 14,585
Change: -57 Tyler County, WV
2010: 9,208
2011: 9,121
Change: -87 Wetzel County, WV
2010: 16,583
2011: 16,351
Change: -232 Add it all up...
Pittsburgh Economic Area
2010: 2,887,796
2011: 2,888,699
Change: +903 ...
Let's take a look at some of the Metropolitan Areas near Pittsburgh:
Erie, PA MSA
2010: 280,566
2011: 280,985
Change: +419 Johnstown, PA MSA
2010: 143,679
2011: 143,728
Change: +49
Altoona, PA MSA
2010: 127,089
2011: 127,099
Change: +10 State College, PA MSA
2010: 153,990
2011: 154,772
Change: +782 All metros in the western half of Pennsylvania grew! :ok:
Cumberland, MD MSA
2010: 103,299
2011: 102,884
Change: -415 Morgantown, WV MSA
2010: 129,709
2011: 132,251
Change: +2,542 Weirton-Steubenville MSA
2010: 124,454
2011: 123,243
Change: -1,221 Wheeling MSA
2010: 147,950
2011: 147,197
Change: -753 Youngstown-Warren, OH-PA MSA
2010: 565,773
2011: 562,739
Change: -3,034 Canton-Massilon, OH MSA
2010: 404,422
2011: 403,869
Change: -553 Akron, OH MSA
2010: 703,200
2011: 701,456
Change: -1,744 Cleveland, OH MSA
2010: 2,077,240
2011: 2,068,283
Change: -8,957 ...
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