Quote:
Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker
If building transit paid for itself companies would be itching at building lines without state subsidy.
If you are just talknig about the bus system, you want to reduce subsidy on currently successful routes to provide even greater subsidy on routes that don't justify high service now because they are marginal. Unless you think that transit planners are so awful that they are leaving potential gold mine routes unserved it just doesn't follow.
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I don't know that we need more buses necessarily, but I *do* think we can make better use of the ones we already have. I don't mean to imply that the transit planners are "awful" per se (I certainly don't claim that I could to a better job in general).
The current planning philosophy outside of the core appears to be to have the route drive past as many houses as possible. This makes perfect sense for the community "collector" routes. The problem is that this philosophy has also crept into the design for the so-called "crosstown" routes.
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Take for example route 430. This is (I think) a fairly new route that runs between Crowfoot and the Airport. A one-way end-to-end trip takes 61min, whereas the google maps best-case drive time between the same two points is 26min. The route the 430 follows is essentially up nose hill drive to country hills then across to barlow and down to the terminal. But not quite. It deviates from this route in a few places to, I presume, provide direct access to more houses/businesses. To actually drive the same route that the bus uses takes 46min. So really, there's only a ~30% time penalty associated with being a bus and having to stop all the time.
So suppose we took out all the meandering from the crosstown route and let the (already existing) collector routes for those areas take care of providing front-door service to the people in these communities. If the bus were to take the more direct route (nose hill/country hills/barlow) only, we save 5.2km and the drive time goes down to 33min. If we use the same 30% overhead for being a bus, we can project about 43min.
If we say the destination is the airport terminal, this represents a vastly improved quality of service for anyone west of beddington trail (ie. most of the route). For someone that lives in, say, the north part of Hawkwood as an example (I used hawkstone manor), currently they can either drive in 23min or take the existing 430 in 50min. Probably most people would pay for a taxi to save 27min. On the other hand, with the "optimized" route, the projected bus time is only 36min... I'm not sure paying for a cab to save 13 minutes is quite as much of a slam dunk.
Basically, from the standpoint of attracting ridership, this hypothetical route is now a lot more attractive to a lot more people.
Now consider service frequency. The current route has a ~2h round trip. If it has 30min frequency, then it needs something like four buses running on it. The "optimized" route has a round-trip time of 86min, so the same four buses give us 21min frequency, which is quite a lot nicer for anyone who has to transfer onto this route (the average-case wait time for the transfer is 33% better). If we instead knock this back to 3 buses, we get something just slightly better than the original 30min service frequency, therefore providing the same service frequency 25% cheaper.
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So as I said, I'm not convinced that we need more buses, just that we need to make more efficient use of the ones we already have.