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Originally Posted by xd_1771
Non-peak a Guildford-Whalley bus will get you there in about 15-20 minutes... 20-30 minutes into the peak on the faster routes. An LRT would not be significantly faster than a bus driving on the non-peak hours; 104th is by no means like King George Highway, it is a lot narrower and a lot slower by nature; I don't see how a 32km/h average would be possible. A Skytrain would actually provide a very noticeable benefit.
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Portland Max average speed is 32km/h, and that counts stops and its trip through Portland's downtown core. Surrey LRT could probably match that with dedicated lanes and priority signalling over such a short distance with not major cross streets besides 152 and King George. Phoenix LRT averages around 40km/h but has more segregation. But for the sake of argument, lets say LRT would do 25km/h on 104 ave.
Lets say for a length 4 km, Skytrain would do that in 5.3 minutes. LRT would do it in 9.6 minutes. For more than double the price you are saving Guildford residents 4.3 minutes.
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Originally Posted by xd_1771
When you're trying to connect the Guildford area with other places such as Newton, in a city that is the largest in the SOF and may soon grow bigger than the city of Vancouver, the time adds up significantly and so does the need for capacity. With the short distance required, building a Skytrain line would be cheap, perhaps just as cheap, and the better choice for handling future traffic demands.
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Yeah, but the distances don't get any longer. It will always be about 4km between Guildford and City Center, no mater how big Surrey gets.
However, Guildford is on the edge of the city, with almost no possibility of expansion in that direction.
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Originally Posted by xd_1771
Sure, the RapidBus is going to allow better Guildford access to everywhere but is it going to help out Guildford's access to the rest of the city of Surrey?
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How is Skytrain different in doing this than LRT, or even just improved bus service to Guildford? What I was saying about Rapid Bus, is that the increased capacity this will bring for regional travelers will result in more local capacity for residents of Guildford to City Center.
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Originally Posted by xd_1771
A change of perspective is needed. Guildford is not a Coquitlam town centre, it is a Surrey town centre. It happens to be one of the biggest three and this may continue as the new highway & transit developments attract more people into new higher-density developments that are being both proposed and built; in the past few years several high-density condominium & apartment developments have been built on the southeast & southwest corners of this centre, and these developments can and will keep coming. Many areas are being rezoned and redeveloped into such buidings. The same is happening, very rapidly, with Newton: a town centre that is twice the size but also twice the distance. The biggest three centres should be connected with the best and fastest form of transit immediately, as it would promote inter-city movement and significantly speed up the "growing" of this city.
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Being one of the biggest 3 town centers out of 5 is not much of a brag.
It is also the only one on its own Corridor. 104 only leads to Guildford, providing less opportunities for expansion in the future, and few potential riders.
Fraser Highway brings Skytrain closer to Fleetwood and Cloverdale (and the rest of the Valley). Those 2 town centers combined are twice the population. KGB leads to Newton and South Surrey.
Guildford also has the least potential. You might think Guildford is dense, but only around a mall where a small portion of its population lives. Most is scattered to the north and stretches all the way east to Langley. When you compare that to the relatively smaller size to Fleetwood, Guildford looks less appealing.
Land around the mall being rezoned is nothing compared to the vast already empty lots around Newton, Cloverdale, and South Surrey. Guildford has the least potential for Skytrain based TOD. The commercial properties along 104 ave would benefit much better from having community focused LRT.
You also have to look at the travel demands and distance. How many people would really ride from Newton to Guildford (and vice versa). Most travels will be between City Center and the others. So you are building a fast transit system that really only caters to the smallest subset of travelers.
But even the full line would be around 10km, and the difference between Skytrain and LRT would be 18 vs 13 minutes (assuming 32km/h average for LRT).
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Originally Posted by xd_1771
Clayton Heights is a very residentially focused area so it seems but is it anywhere near a major town centre close to a quickly growing city? If one wants to focus on getting these communities quick access to everywhere else via transit then a good way to start off would be with a RapidBus service that scales Highway 15 perhaps.
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Highway 15 is a N/S route, it doesn't bring you closer to anything. It would be the worst bus route. Where would it come from, where would it go? Now you are just reaching for straws to support your position
Cloverdale has a similar population to Guildford, but focused along the Fraser highway. And as TwoNeurons pointed out, much of it is tightly packed in on small lots, unlike the sprawl of Fraser heights.
And because it is further away from the city, that makes it more attractive for Skytrain. The further you get away, the more Skytrain shows its speed advantage.
Skytrain to Guildford might save the residents there a minute or two off their commutes, but Skytrain to Cloverdale would save the residents there (of which there are just as many) about an hour compared to current bus routes. The more ground you can get Skytrain to cover, the bigger the advantage. The advantage to Guildford is so small compared to what can be accomplished elsewhere.
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Originally Posted by xd_1771
Clayton Heights, Langley, and other similar areas are on the very edge of metro Vancouver. There is nothing suitable beyond them that is close enough to make such a place worth being a major transit hub. Abbotsford perhaps, but that is a city much farther and more of a city in itself, that would be better served by a commuter rail line. I would put the improvements first where they are needed the most, where the area is already built up, and there are places beyond that can be served as well. To build rapid transit to these centres right away, while missing major centres that need them the most, would be building on the needs of these centres, but that is it. Whereas if you build to those other centres like Newton & Guildford, you are still also building on the needs of many places beyond it.
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A station in Langley city would be surrounded by a huge population, much more than Guildford.
A station at Guildford mall will be
NO CLOSER to almost every other Surrey and Langley resident than King George Station is today. A Guildford Skytrain line only serves the residents of Guildford. At best it can shave a few minutes off an already hour long bus ride for Langley residents. That is not a transit improvement for most people in the Fraser Valley.
Now I do agree that Guildford and Newton can use near term transit improvements. The Skytrain to Langley I endorse wouldn't be for years. Surrey needs something sooner, and noone can afford to build Skytrain in that timeframe while other, even more important projects (Evergreen Line and Broadway) are being done. So if Surrey wants something to serve its residents in 2 fairly close town centers to facilitate local travel, then LRT is a logical choice. It can be built out at a relatively lower cost to accomodate Surrey's local town centers while we wait for more money to be available to build regional transit.
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Originally Posted by xd_1771
An LRT to Newton is a very long distance of 7km. I'm betting that LRT would not succeed at getting commuter passengers off the train at Newton & fail at promoting more business development on King George Highway, because lopping around to Scott Road station & taking the Skytrain south is probably a faster alternative or is just as fast. The LRT route would take 15 minutes to travel the King George Highway. The alternate route is 10km by commuter rail and 3.5 on skytrain; since the commuter rail is nonstop, at an average speed of 70km/h (80km/h counting acceleration & deceleration) that takes less than 10 minutes; Skytrain's 3.5km at avg. 45km/h takes just less than 5 minutes. 15 minutes - just as fast, maybe faster. You're also riding on a train that probably doesn't include all those Newton-Whalley travellers - 120,000 people live in Newton. Meanwhile, a Newton-Whalley Skytrain on direct route takes less than 10 minutes.
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Portland operates a commuter rail service from Beaverton to Wilsonville that links to MAX LRT outside Portland's downtown and works quite well.
There is no way they would let the trains travel at 80km/h through Surrey. The line crosses too many major roads. Next, there would be stations if there was a rail line through Surrey, as there are potential transfer points along the line and several employment centers. The train would not be non stop between Newton and Scott Road; I see at least 2 or 3 good station locations. The speed limit and extra stops (which commuter trains spend longer at than LRT) would mean the average speed would be less than 70km/h.
But lets say it does take 10 minutes. Then to ride the Skytrain back into the city center is another 6 minutes. That's about a 20 minute ride with transfer. LRT down KGB at 30km/h average would be a 12 minute ride, or 16 minutes with transfer. The difference might not be that much in theory, but it is there. The LRT would also have better spaced stops around places like the hospital and new businesses along KGB than Skytrain. Oh, and did I mention it is cheaper?
But perhaps you are right, maybe Skytrain is called for down KGB to save a couple minutes. There are far more people down there than Guildford, that's for sure. But that still does nothing to convince me spending the money for a spur to Guildford is worth it at all.