Expo Line - Surrey Langley Extension: Planning & Pre-Construction

[xd_1771]

Before even trying to complain about construction hurdles and using that against me, have a look at what Highway 1 construction is doing to Guildford at the moment. Unfortunately it's all part of the process, but this does not nearly have to be like what the Millenium Line construction did to Surrey Travel in 2002. There are ways to construct that switch without having to close the actual Skytrain operations. Assuming an end result that would be similar to just east of Lougheed Station, you could construct the switch one side at a time; start with the eastern side, and when that portion of the switch is complete start the western side. You would have to single track between Gateway & Central & King George, but the service is still there; being two stations it is probably not going to be a huge issue. There's also plenty of alternatives this time: if there is absolutely a need to, reroute a few of the major bus routes to go to Gateway for awhile, or reroute more traffic to use buses that go past there such as the 335. In any case, such construction would only last a month at most.

[BCPhil]

Originally Posted by paradigm4

Agree wholeheartedly. Same reason SkyTrain isn't going out to PoCo, or Maple Ridge.

Langley City, with 23,000 people, is packed into a tiny area. I believe the density of Langley City is something like 2777 people/km^2. That's amazing density for a suburb, and that doesn't count the condos and town houses located just outside the City limits in the township. There are also tightly packed row and town homes, and some condos, all along the Fraser Highway through Cloverdale.

There are also quite a few jobs in Langley, and not just retail. There are also some fairly new Industrial parks just south of the city. People would be travelling from Fleetwood and Cloverdale into the Langley City. This could give Skytrain to Langley the much needed reverse commute, which would make it more economically sustainable than sending Skytrain to the more bedroom like town centers, where travel would be mostly peak direction.

The Fraser Highway also cuts through the middle of all the growth in Surrey. If Skytrain were built down Fraser Highway, then it would be as close as possible to as many people as possible. Other routes, like the BCER, are actually quite far bus rides for most Cloverdale residents. The Fraser highway would be at most a 10 minute ride for the furthest commuters.

The Fraser Highway also cuts diagonally through the city, allowing it to cover the most ground in the fastest, most direct route. This is why the Expo line is a huge success in Vancouver; it cuts diagonally through the grid, minimizing travel times while being as close as possible to most people.

This is what makes Skytrain a success. You don't have to have it pass right by large areas of density, just close enough to as many people as possible. This minimizes the amount of KMs you need to build. The time you spend on the bus to get there is made up by the speed of the train.

This is why I don't think Skytrain to Guildford is in the interests of the most people. It doesn't make the bus ride to Skytrain much shorter for the majority of Surrey and Langley Residents. That counters its effectiveness. You just end up spending a lot of money to give at most 50,000 residents a private metro.

[xd_1771]

It should be conisdered that the small size of Langley City is putting the density at advantage.

What bothers me is the lot of you are understanding me wrong. Though Guildford is of concern, that is not what I am primarily putting into perspective; the city of Surrey is what I am trying to put into perspective with my Whaley-Newton-Guildford skytrain line idea, as well as the South of Fraser as a whole; I am not trying to prioritize one community while secluding everyone else.

Some of the facts are wrong. Langley's density is closer to 2,309/km^2; the small size gives it a huge advantage in this rating as ratings are always per-city. The town centres of Guildford and Newton could be easily more dense than this, there's just no way to prove it. However, I can give you population values: the population of Guildford was 60,000 in 2009, and the population of Newton is double that at 120,000. Guildford is a major transit node for the Fleetwood, Walnut Grove, Langley City, and beyond via the Highway. Newton is a major transit node for Cloverdale, South Surrey & White Rock. Whalley is the centre as well as connection to the rest of Metro Vancouver. All of the town centres have equal importance in the amount of people going through as well as the amount of people going to, and they can be made to work well with each other; so far it is actually working pretty well for Surrey. I'm not really convinced that a Fraser Highway Skytrain would be serving everybody effectively. You are missing two of the major Surrey centres carrying tens to hundreds of thousands of people, and a huge majority of the city of Surrey, to serve the outbound suburbs that are still only beginning to undergo serious development.

Departing on a different plan to connect the major town centres where traffic converges, creating separate transportation nodes, is perhaps a welcome change that would work the best. A Skytrain line on a Newton-Whalley-Guildford route can still effectively serve everybody because of the Newton & Guildford's roles as important transit nodes to other cities; such roles could be expanded with rapid bus service (already being implemented from Guildford to Walnut Grove) and/or smaller-scale rapid transit such as LRT. Because the line also helps connect the City of Surrey together by connecting a major mall on one end to a high density suburb on the other with a major downtown in between, the city of Surrey itself will also benefit largely from such a line.

The Expo Line works slightly differently, on the expo line are the cities of Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, and Surrey. The cities are also well connected and there is plenty of development in betweenFour different cities are being served, directly, by one line that goes through all of them. That is how it works well, because people travel very often between cities on various different movement patterns. A Fraser Highway line would link Whalley to Langley, but there is really nothing else in between that can directly served. There would be no improvement to the major town centres of Newton & Guildford that do need expanded transit. Cloverdale would still require a bus ride to get to the skytrain station. There's even a lot of agricultural land that the Skytrain must pass through, and there's really no one to serve there.

This is why in my opinion the best type of regional transit service for serving those areas beyond the city of Surrey and in the South of Fraser, is interurban rail in the form of a commuter rail line similar to the West Coast Express. It's still very fast, it works, and serves such rural and more isolated areas effectively, and allows people to go even further to more places, including areas not supposedly being part of this plan such as Abbotsford and Chiliwack. It's working very well right now on the North of Fraser. Due to the lower amount of stations required it is also significantly cheaper to build. To use Skytrain on such a corridor doesn't make sense; the stations in between would most certainly not see enough use to warrant a Skytrain line.

[Whalleyboy]

Its not that i'm deny guildford anything i've already said ti would be great to have skytrain there its just not gonna happen any time soon. If we push for LRT atleast we are more likely gonna get it in 20 years rather then pushing for skytrain and getting it in 70 years....we are dealing with translink. They dont give a rats as about SoF. okay well they do care its just Vancouver is always number 1 followed by burnaby and richmond. then the rest count kinda. Its like there far zones thing in which number that place is is what mind translink puts them in

[xd_1771]

Originally Posted by Whalleyboy

Its not that i'm deny guildford anything i've already said ti would be great to have skytrain there its just not gonna happen any time soon. If we push for LRT atleast we are more likely gonna get it in 20 years rather then pushing for skytrain and getting it in 70 years....we are dealing with translink. They dont give a rats as about SoF. okay well they do care its just Vancouver is always number 1 followed by burnaby and richmond. then the rest count kinda. Its like there far zones thing in which number that place is is what mind translink puts them in

Then don't you think we should be working to try and change Translink's mind?
It's do-able perhaps if enough people are gathered

[nname]

Originally Posted by Whalleyboy

Its not that i'm deny guildford anything i've already said ti would be great to have skytrain there its just not gonna happen any time soon. If we push for LRT atleast we are more likely gonna get it in 20 years rather then pushing for skytrain and getting it in 70 years....we are dealing with translink. They dont give a rats as about SoF. okay well they do care its just Vancouver is always number 1 followed by burnaby and richmond. then the rest count kinda. Its like there far zones thing in which number that place is is what mind translink puts them in

For the past 5 years, they give more than half of the new service to SoF each schedule change, and now even cut service in Vancouver and Burnaby to give them to Surrey, and yet you're still complaining... You know they already provide 3x the service per rider in Surrey compared to Vancouver, right?

[g35]

Originally Posted by nname

know they already provide 3x the service per rider in Surrey compared to Vancouver, right?

Not that I think you're making it up but...how is this quantified? # buses/rider, routes/rider, route km/rider, or what?

[DKaz]

There are 3x less passengers per bus in Surrey than in Vancouver, that means passengers have 3x the bus capacity to bum around in.

[g35]

Originally Posted by DKaz

There are 3x less passengers per bus in Surrey than in Vancouver, that means passengers have 3x the bus capacity to bum around in.

Thanks for clearing that up. Not exactly what I would call 3x the service, but to each his own. I would say more like 3x capacity, with service meaning capacity + frequency + geographic coverage, which is I suspect is lacking in South of Fraser.

[xd_1771]

It doesn't seem to be helping. I still ride super-crowded Guildford-Whalley buses when I happen to be on the bus.

[nname]

Originally Posted by g35

Not that I think you're making it up but...how is this quantified? # buses/rider, routes/rider, route km/rider, or what?

Rider per hour of service is about 2.2x higher in Vancouver. Rider per km of service is about 3.1x higher.. according to the 2007 stat from the RTM document.

[nname]

Originally Posted by xd_1771

It doesn't seem to be helping. I still ride super-crowded Guildford-Whalley buses when I happen to be on the bus.

The main difference is.. in Vancouver, almost all routes are crowded. In Surrey, or any other outer suburb in general, some routes are crowded and some are really underused. Some routes seem well used, but they are mostly people who travel long distance from end-to-end. So for the same amount of service, it actually serve less people (thus the service is at a higher cost). They can't cut service for the underused routes either, as it would leave regions without bus service. So in the end, the crowded routes have to "subsidize" the underused routes...

[BCPhil]

Originally Posted by xd_1771

It should be conisdered that the small size of Langley City is putting the density at advantage.

What bothers me is the lot of you are understanding me wrong. Though Guildford is of concern, that is not what I am primarily putting into perspective; the city of Surrey is what I am trying to put into perspective with my Whaley-Newton-Guildford skytrain line idea, as well as the South of Fraser as a whole; I am not trying to prioritize one community while secluding everyone else.

No, we understand you. We (or maybe just me) think your plan would cost more money than it would be worth, especially in the near term. You have to look at the cost of building that much track per potential rider.

In all honesty, I think you are prioritizing yourself, forget about communities. All you have been concerned about is automobile traffic, and little thought is given towards the actual cost/benefits of Skytrain. The problem with building to Guildford is you are deadending Skytrain in a small pocket of population.

Originally Posted by xd_1771

Some of the facts are wrong. Langley's density is closer to 2,309/km^2; the small size gives it a huge advantage in this rating as ratings are always per-city. The town centres of Guildford and Newton could be easily more dense than this, there's just no way to prove it. However, I can give you population values: the population of Guildford was 60,000 in 2009, and the population of Newton is double that at 120,000. Guildford is a major transit node for the Fleetwood, Walnut Grove, Langley City, and beyond via the Highway. Newton is a major transit node for Cloverdale, South Surrey & White Rock. Whalley is the centre as well as connection to the rest of Metro Vancouver. All of the town centres have equal importance in the amount of people going through as well as the amount of people going to, and they can be made to work well with each other; so far it is actually working pretty well for Surrey. I'm not really convinced that a Fraser Highway Skytrain would be serving everybody effectively. You are missing two of the major Surrey centres carrying tens to hundreds of thousands of people, and a huge majority of the city of Surrey, to serve the outbound suburbs that are still only beginning to undergo serious development.

The numbers might be a little wrong, but I think you just proved my point. I was saying that the small area that contains Langley City's population is a benefit, whereas Guildford's 60,000 is stretched between 144 and 196 St. Guildford has some density around the mall, but most of that population is spread out in SFH in Fraser Heights.

As well, the Township's population is around 94,000. And most of those people are centered right around the outskirts of Langley City and along the Fraser highway towrds Aldergrove and along the 200st Corridor. There is also room for a lot of growth nearby, meaning Skytrain could be a huge force for ToD around Langley City, much more than around Guildford.

The only reason Guildford is a major transit node is that is just how it is currently planned. Under present conditions, the TCH offers a speed advantage to commuters. If Skytrain were extended as far as just 168 st in Fleetwood, that would no longer be the case. 168 and Fraser would be much closer to most of Fleetwood's 50,000 residents, Cloverdale's 50,000, Langley City's 23,000 and Langley's 90,000. It would be the new hub. So arguing that Guildford is important because it is a transit hub is inconsequential, because sending Skytrain almost anywhere else eliminates Guildford's current advantages.

And I'm not saying that Guildford and Newton should be unserved, but they can be served by affordable LRT in the near term as opposed to waiting about 15 years for Skytrain.

Originally Posted by xd_1771

Departing on a different plan to connect the major town centres where traffic converges, creating separate transportation nodes, is perhaps a welcome change that would work the best. A Skytrain line on a Newton-Whalley-Guildford route can still effectively serve everybody because of the Newton & Guildford's roles as important transit nodes to other cities; such roles could be expanded with rapid bus service (already being implemented from Guildford to Walnut Grove) and/or smaller-scale rapid transit such as LRT. Because the line also helps connect the City of Surrey together by connecting a major mall on one end to a high density suburb on the other with a major downtown in between, the city of Surrey itself will also benefit largely from such a line.

You continue to over estimate the role of malls in transit planning. I know they are awesome when you are a kid, but they lose their importance as you grow up.

Malls also cater to automobiles. There is nothing wrong with that, IMO, but it means that the primary user of malls will always been car drivers. Planning to spend upwards of a billion dollars on transit to a mall is overkill. There are not that many people interested in going to Guildford, ever, to require a dedicated metro line. The same transit can be provided via LRT, and it can create a much more shopping friendly environment along the street and around the mall.

Metrotown works though because it isn't at the end of the line. When it was built, and the tracks extended into Surrey, it allowed people from the 'brubs out east, to travel to the mall. It is also a destination of provincial interest, getting visits from people even in Downtown. Shoppers from anywhere other than Surrey are not interested in Guildford, so unless the line extends far to the east of the mall, shoppers will never be brought to the mall by train, and will stick with their cars.

Metrowtown is also a side effect, almost an afterthought of Skytrain planning. The line was planned and built to get commuters downtown, the mall was built afterwards. Skytrain was not planned around the mall, the mall was planned around Skytrain. It's TOD, not DOT.

Originally Posted by xd_1771

The Expo Line works slightly differently, on the expo line are the cities of Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, and Surrey. The cities are also well connected and there is plenty of development in betweenFour different cities are being served, directly, by one line that goes through all of them. That is how it works well, because people travel very often between cities on various different movement patterns. A Fraser Highway line would link Whalley to Langley, but there is really nothing else in between that can directly served. There would be no improvement to the major town centres of Newton & Guildford that do need expanded transit. Cloverdale would still require a bus ride to get to the skytrain station. There's even a lot of agricultural land that the Skytrain must pass through, and there's really no one to serve there.

There is a lot of development along the Fraser highway. Far more recent homes and businesses per KM than in Guildford. Besides the pocket of density located around the mall, most of the Surrey's east side's density is located along the Fraser highway between 152 and 168. Skytrain from King George to 168 would bring it to within a 5 minute bus ride of a station for far more people than a line to Guildford.

And so what if the Skytrain passes through some Agricultural land. The distance from 168 to 184 is only 4km. Skytrain would travel at high speeds through there, making up a lot of time for regional commuters over other modes of transportation. The distance between 22nd and New West stations is almost 3km, so I don't see what the big deal about 4km between stations would be; both stations at either end of that stretch would be quite popular.

And buses are part of the reason why Skytrain is so successful. Most people have to ride a bus to get to Skytrain. But most people enjoy a fairly short bus ride, except people further out SoF. That's why extending Skytrain towards them would increase Skytrain's utility. Yes, people will still have to ride buses, but you would be turning their hour long bus rides into 10 minute bus rides. That would change the lives of tens of thousands of people and make Cloverdale and Langley (and even Aldergrove) part of Metro Vancouver.

Originally Posted by xd_1771

This is why in my opinion the best type of regional transit service for serving those areas beyond the city of Surrey and in the South of Fraser, is interurban rail in the form of a commuter rail line similar to the West Coast Express. It's still very fast, it works, and serves such rural and more isolated areas effectively, and allows people to go even further to more places, including areas not supposedly being part of this plan such as Abbotsford and Chiliwack. It's working very well right now on the North of Fraser. Due to the lower amount of stations required it is also significantly cheaper to build. To use Skytrain on such a corridor doesn't make sense; the stations in between would most certainly not see enough use to warrant a Skytrain line.

I can say the exact same about LRT to Guildford: Still very fast (for the short distance), it works, and allows people to go even further to more places at less capital cost.

Again, if Guildford's 50,000 residents warrant Skytrain, why doesn't Fleetwood and Colverdale/Langley's 175,000+ (and growing fast) deserve it? I think you really should go for a drive down the Fraser Highway. Along the route there are several large clusters of population, much like the single one around Guildford. While commuter rail would serve a lot of people in the Valley, it can't serve the larger population centers located along the Fraser Highway. Commuter Rail would be good at getting people from Langley to Scott Road and into Vancouver, but it wouldn't do as much in creating a regional SoF Backbone across Surrey and Langley as Skytrain would. It was a success and drove growth in Burnaby and New Westminster, the same is possible in Cloverdale and Langley.

Yes, commuter rail service is a good idea, but so is LRT to Guildford. If you want to save money by keeping Cloverdale Langley from really being a major town center, we can also save a lot of money by sending LRT to Guildford. It would cost less than half as much, and have the same transit effect as Skytrain.

[xd_1771]

Here we go again. Guildford is by no means a small place. It hosts 60,000 people and what is perhaps one of the largest malls in the SOF. You can clearly see how Skytrain would be of big benefit to this area especially if the connections would continue on to the rest of the city of Surrey.

I don't see how Guildford stretches to 196th in a way that could make measuring such population worth it... by then you would be hitting the area of Port Kells, industrial, and not really part of the Guildford town centre. Anything east of 168th is mostly agricultural/rural residential, in the case that it does compromise Guildford population, it would likely only be a very, very small part of it. Putting the township into perspective... you are not only including the area around Langley City but also Walnut Grove, Fort Langley, and a much bigger agricultural & rural area. Guildford serves and will continue to serve as an effective node to all of this area, for travel to both the city of Surrey and the rest of the Metro. Cloverdale can be served effectively by transit connections to Newton by bus rapid transit, perhaps a light rail line, or an interurban line as it sits right along the route.

Consider that if you're extending Skytrain along the Fraser Highway, you're not even getting people to the Guildford Mall effectively whatsoever. You're not really getting people directly to major centres except for Whalley; Fraser Hwy at 168th is quite empty, so unless one could perhaps manage to get investors to blow millions in investments there (which probably wouldn't work because there really is no major shopping nearby), that probably wouldn't end up being worth it whatsoever, and it doesn't work.

Guildford is actually easier to access. It's right off the highway. Once the Highway is expanded and traffic clears up, I can see how Guildford will be an easier and better choice for people coming from the east. The capacity being served on the highway being unable to get people to Guildford is proving a huge disadvantage to the mall. Once the Highway is opened, that will clear up. Remember a RapidBus is being introduced along that stretch of highway, they will be able to take the new RapidBus to get there too. Building a Skytrain line to the west will do the same and open up Guildford better to traffic from the west, and provide better movement for traffic to the west. This will prove beneficial to the entire area because Guildford is accessible from all directions, and if you build a Skytrain these people will also be able to quickly access Whalley, boosting the economy there as well. Why do you think Translink decided to route Canada Line along Cambie instead of Arbutus? Along Arbutus.... well, it's zoned for rail, but there's nothing there. You'd serve Vancouver to Richmond movement, and nothing in between. Whereas along Cambie, there is the broadway-city hall area, olympic village, a major hospital, and a big mall called Oakridge Centre. This does not work any differently.

Far more recent homes & businesses doesn't add much to density, just area. If you're trying to put Skytrain service over an extremely large area without a sufficient enough bus network to serve it, it still doesn't work. LRT does not do that either, and in addition does not provide that kind of fast reliable transportation in general to Guildford. Aside from compromising a major automobile & freight route into Whalley, you are moving people at street speed; this is not an effective enough upgrade from buses to warrant an actual benefit.

Once again I am not trying to seclude everyone else. I am fully supporting Skytrain from Guildford to Whalley as the last step for commuters from Fleetwood and Langley, where this traffic can converge into one single fast movement (Cloverdale residents can hop west to Newton; in addition having something decent going to Newton serves South Surrey & White Rock, which you have completely left out). These communities on the other side will be served to the skytrain by other forms of expanded transit such as LRT or BRT. In the end, your overall travel time is really not any different as taking a bus or BRT to a completely remote skytrain station on Fraser Highway, and you are also benefitting a very important community that wouldn't be served whatsoever otherwise. There's not much difference.

As for the costs... let's put things into perspective:
RRT to Newton/Whalley/Guildford

• Skytrain: $80 million/km (this nowhere near the cost of Evergreen Line which involves at least one bored tunnel, or Canada Line which was mostly cut-and-cover, since it's simple elevated stretch throughout on slightly hilly ground)
• Total cost: $680 million (8.5km of new line required) assuming station cost included and existing Surrey Central-King George stretch is incorporated into this
• Cost for new trains: $0 to a few million. Existing trains can be used. The trains are fast and provide suitable capacity over the next 10 years without need for major transaction. Capacity is offloaded very slightly from non-busier routes such as the Millenium Line.
• Cost for operating: No more than a few million $$ every year. Existing facilities can be used.
• Cost for a depot & maintenance: $0. Existing depot at Edmonds can be used. No need for extra maintenance costs as the trains are very reliable (some having run over 25 years with no issue) and there really weren't any extra trains ordered.
• Cost after 10 years for everybody: Less than $800 million

Add some $100 million for expanded transit as express bus rapid transit from the Guildford & Newton transit nodes to Cloverdale, South Surrey, Langley and Langley via Fleetwood.... maybe more, but that is not the main point of this comparison.

LRT to Newton/Whalley/Guildford

• LRT: $27 million/km.
• Total cost: $260 million assuming station cost included; all lines must be built from scratch
• Cost for new trains: $6 million/train (assuming Bombardier Flexity Outlook; number based on total cost of the LRVs Toronto TTC ordered, divided by amount of LRVs ordered which was 204). Some 35 trains required (probably underestimated), = $210 million
• Cost for operating: 35 drivers. $35/hour for each (a step up from $33.50/hr bus driver hourly salary according to PayScale) Assuming an average of 27 are in service at one time: there are about 18 operating hours (similar to Skytrain), 6 hours from 12AM-6AM have no service. 35 * 18 = $630/driver/day. Avg. 27 drivers serving all these hours, so $17,000 per day. $120,000 per week. $6 million for the year. $60 million after 10 years.
• Cost for new depot and maintenance over 10 years: Brand new storage/maintenance building required. Huge building in Newton. Some $150 million for the building as well as the maintenance inside (this part is probably severely inaccurate, I haven't much to base on)
• Additional costs:
• Refurbishing and upgrading and touting other roads as major routes, including 4-laning of many various different routes - $100 million
• Traffic calming many local roads to prevent shortcutting - $10 million
• Cost required to handle increasing traffic volume - In 8 years 5 new trains are required and new drivers for about avg. 29 drivers on road at one time. This amounts to $30 million for new trains and another $1 million for the drivers.
• Total cost after 10 years for everybody: $800-850 million. This doesn't even count the cost of an RRT extension along the Fraser Highway.

A lot of this is probably inaccurate, but you now get the point. In most ways possible, there's not much difference, or perhaps the cost of the latter ends up being greater.

[Zassk]

BCPhil, you make good arguments for having transit down Fraser Hwy - but I am still not convinced that SkyTrain is the correct solution for it. Doubling the length of Expo Line is an extreme burden placed on our transit backbone that is already heavily burdened.

Yes, a single diagonal transit line can form a string of transit hubs across eastern Surrey, but is it actually better than having two lines going both south and east? If we must choose between extending our overextended Expo Line further along Fraser Hwy, vs. having cheaper technologies on the table for two orthogonal lines, then is Fraser Hwy really the best use of dollars?

Personally, I think Langley itself needs a commuter line first - and in a sense it is already getting this, with the RapidBus connection across Port Mann to Lougheed SkyTrain. If Langley can justify a second transit connection to Surrey Central, then the RapidBus to Lougheed should be a raging success in the first place. Let's see if that is the case.

And if there really is a solid business case for rapid transit along Fraser Hwy, then it should be built as a separate line - a Surrey-Langley Line - rather than an extension of the Expo line. If we cannot justify a Surrey-Langley Line on its own merits, then we should not contemplate extending Expo line to Langley in the first place.

My guess is that the only justifiable extension of Expo line is the lowest-hanging fruit, which is Newton.

[Whalleyboy]

Originally Posted by BCPhil

No, we understand you. We (or maybe just me) think your plan would cost more money than it would be worth, especially in the near term. You have to look at the cost of building that much track per potential rider.

In all honesty, I think you are prioritizing yourself, forget about communities. All you have been concerned about is automobile traffic, and little thought is given towards the actual cost/benefits of Skytrain. The problem with building to Guildford is you are deadending Skytrain in a small pocket of population.



The numbers might be a little wrong, but I think you just proved my point. I was saying that the small area that contains Langley City's population is a benefit, whereas Guildford's 60,000 is stretched between 144 and 196 St. Guildford has some density around the mall, but most of that population is spread out in SFH in Fraser Heights.

As well, the Township's population is around 94,000. And most of those people are centered right around the outskirts of Langley City and along the Fraser highway towrds Aldergrove and along the 200st Corridor. There is also room for a lot of growth nearby, meaning Skytrain could be a huge force for ToD around Langley City, much more than around Guildford.

The only reason Guildford is a major transit node is that is just how it is currently planned. Under present conditions, the TCH offers a speed advantage to commuters. If Skytrain were extended as far as just 168 st in Fleetwood, that would no longer be the case. 168 and Fraser would be much closer to most of Fleetwood's 50,000 residents, Cloverdale's 50,000, Langley City's 23,000 and Langley's 90,000. It would be the new hub. So arguing that Guildford is important because it is a transit hub is inconsequential, because sending Skytrain almost anywhere else eliminates Guildford's current advantages.

And I'm not saying that Guildford and Newton should be unserved, but they can be served by affordable LRT in the near term as opposed to waiting about 15 years for Skytrain.



You continue to over estimate the role of malls in transit planning. I know they are awesome when you are a kid, but they lose their importance as you grow up.

Malls also cater to automobiles. There is nothing wrong with that, IMO, but it means that the primary user of malls will always been car drivers. Planning to spend upwards of a billion dollars on transit to a mall is overkill. There are not that many people interested in going to Guildford, ever, to require a dedicated metro line. The same transit can be provided via LRT, and it can create a much more shopping friendly environment along the street and around the mall.

Metrotown works though because it isn't at the end of the line. When it was built, and the tracks extended into Surrey, it allowed people from the 'brubs out east, to travel to the mall. It is also a destination of provincial interest, getting visits from people even in Downtown. Shoppers from anywhere other than Surrey are not interested in Guildford, so unless the line extends far to the east of the mall, shoppers will never be brought to the mall by train, and will stick with their cars.

Metrowtown is also a side effect, almost an afterthought of Skytrain planning. The line was planned and built to get commuters downtown, the mall was built afterwards. Skytrain was not planned around the mall, the mall was planned around Skytrain. It's TOD, not DOT.



There is a lot of development along the Fraser highway. Far more recent homes and businesses per KM than in Guildford. Besides the pocket of density located around the mall, most of the Surrey's east side's density is located along the Fraser highway between 152 and 168. Skytrain from King George to 168 would bring it to within a 5 minute bus ride of a station for far more people than a line to Guildford.

And so what if the Skytrain passes through some Agricultural land. The distance from 168 to 184 is only 4km. Skytrain would travel at high speeds through there, making up a lot of time for regional commuters over other modes of transportation. The distance between 22nd and New West stations is almost 3km, so I don't see what the big deal about 4km between stations would be; both stations at either end of that stretch would be quite popular.

And buses are part of the reason why Skytrain is so successful. Most people have to ride a bus to get to Skytrain. But most people enjoy a fairly short bus ride, except people further out SoF. That's why extending Skytrain towards them would increase Skytrain's utility. Yes, people will still have to ride buses, but you would be turning their hour long bus rides into 10 minute bus rides. That would change the lives of tens of thousands of people and make Cloverdale and Langley (and even Aldergrove) part of Metro Vancouver.



I can say the exact same about LRT to Guildford: Still very fast (for the short distance), it works, and allows people to go even further to more places at less capital cost.

Again, if Guildford's 50,000 residents warrant Skytrain, why doesn't Fleetwood and Colverdale/Langley's 175,000+ (and growing fast) deserve it? I think you really should go for a drive down the Fraser Highway. Along the route there are several large clusters of population, much like the single one around Guildford. While commuter rail would serve a lot of people in the Valley, it can't serve the larger population centers located along the Fraser Highway. Commuter Rail would be good at getting people from Langley to Scott Road and into Vancouver, but it wouldn't do as much in creating a regional SoF Backbone across Surrey and Langley as Skytrain would. It was a success and drove growth in Burnaby and New Westminster, the same is possible in Cloverdale and Langley.

Yes, commuter rail service is a good idea, but so is LRT to Guildford. If you want to save money by keeping Cloverdale Langley from really being a major town center, we can also save a lot of money by sending LRT to Guildford. It would cost less than half as much, and have the same transit effect as Skytrain.

I have to say i think you've convinced me skytrain to langley is the way to go. I am not 100% though that its worth the price and length though. If it was able to be for a reasonable price then i'm for it
Also should be noted fleetwood alone in its smaller area holds as much population as guildford does. cloverdale is projected to hold more people then guilford or fleetwood i think. Also your right about guildford being spread out not all near the mall. Just look at all the people in fraser heights.

[xd_1771]

Originally Posted by Zassk

BCPhil, you make good arguments for having transit down Fraser Hwy - but I am still not convinced that SkyTrain is the correct solution for it. Doubling the length of Expo Line is an extreme burden placed on our transit backbone that is already heavily burdened.

Yes, a single diagonal transit line can form a string of transit hubs across eastern Surrey, but is it actually better than having two lines going both south and east? If we must choose between extending our overextended Expo Line further along Fraser Hwy, vs. having cheaper technologies on the table for two orthogonal lines, then is Fraser Hwy really the best use of dollars?

Personally, I think Langley itself needs a commuter line first - and in a sense it is already getting this, with the RapidBus connection across Port Mann to Lougheed SkyTrain. If Langley can justify a second transit connection to Surrey Central, then the RapidBus to Lougheed should be a raging success in the first place. Let's see if that is the case.

And if there really is a solid business case for rapid transit along Fraser Hwy, then it should be built as a separate line - a Surrey-Langley Line - rather than an extension of the Expo line. If we cannot justify a Surrey-Langley Line on its own merits, then we should not contemplate extending Expo line to Langley in the first place.

My guess is that the only justifiable extension of Expo line is the lowest-hanging fruit, which is Newton.

The rapidbus will stop at Guildford allowing Langley commuters connections to the city of Surrey. This is why a Skytrain to Guildford doesn't necessarily just serve 60,000 residents in Guildford. There's a lot more people being served nowadays even with the bus system. It will serve as the primary node for Walnut Grove and Langley City. Fleetwood is actually connected fairly well to Guildford by bus (when you consider a lot of 320 travellers from Langley City are about to be offloaded).

As for Cloverdale, I would rather advocate it gets increased transit connection to Newton; it is no closer nor farther. This helps split the traffic load and allow for both centres to be advertised as primary transit hubs with about equal importance.

Then a Newton-Whalley-Guildford Skyrtain line starts to make sense. It connects these major transportation hubs with each other, along with plenty of people in between.

[Zassk]

Cloverdale is an awkward place to serve by rapid transit. It was on the old BCER interurban route, but that was not in the least bit "rapid", and even that misses the growing section of Cloverdale. It's too far from King George, too far from Fraser Hwy, and too far from Langley.

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by Zassk

Cloverdale is an awkward place to serve by rapid transit. It was on the old BCER interurban route, but that was not in the least bit "rapid", and even that misses the growing section of Cloverdale. It's too far from King George, too far from Fraser Hwy, and too far from Langley.

Cloverdale Town Centre is inconveniently located. However, the houses around there are built on large lots (60'?) and not too much density. Most of the development in Cloverdale is happening north, along the Fraser Highway, in Clayton. These people are connected better with Surrey and Langley than Cloverdale's downtown.

Compare these:


All the new development in Clayton is denser than almost all existing single Family housing in Vancouver. These houses are built on 9m wide lots.
Many of the houses also have a basement suite.
SkyTrain all the way to Langley along the Fraser Highway is interesting. To look further into this thought experiment where would you put the stations?

To be honest, I think a train to 168th could make sense. It's super easy to get to by bus from Cloverdale. For example:

The 3.9km from 184th to 168th:
By Car: 8 minutes
By Bus: 10 minutes (2 stops)
By Bicycle: 14 minutes (They've built separated bike lanes along some of the road)

One can conclude that terminating a train at 184th/186th doesn't make a lot of sense. It's pretty fast when you're traveling by bus through the ALR. It would only make sense if you're going into Langley itself. Personally, I think Langley would be better served feeding into 168th by B-Line Bus.

From 204th to 168th, it's 14 minutes by car and only 21 by bus.

Putting that in perspective, New West to Metrotown is about the same distance and it takes 14/15 minutes, allowing 1 minute on each side to access the station.

So in the end, you're only talking about a savings of around 6-8 minutes, (max 10). I personally feel that it would be an expensive proposition right now. Once other priorities are taken care of, it would be a possible extension, but just not at the moment. In addition, I think that a concentrated effort to built a commuter line along the old BCER ROW could result in some positive TOD opportunities. Building TOD around potential train stations would be a better use of cash, imho.

As for building the SkyTrain to Guildford to serve Langley people coming in as xd suggests... if they're coming in along the Fraser Highway (which many would be, as that's where the density is) getting to Guildford Mall takes exactly the same time (give or take a minute) as getting to King George SkyTrain station.

A SkyTrain to Guildford would primarily serve Guildford residents. North Surrey residents would also have a closer link to the line, but where are they going? If they're going to Coquitlam a bus along the highway makes more sense. Ideally you want to stitch Guildford, Whalley and Newton together. I see no better way to do this than a continuous LRT line between these points. At points it could be elevated (maybe even run in its own ROW in the sky along parts of 104th if it's deemed an essential artery for the city).

It has better chances of being built in complete form, it has better opportunities to be extended to South Surrey and White Rock and North Surrey, and its capacity can be dialed up to cope with demand.

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by paradigm4

Agree wholeheartedly. Same reason SkyTrain isn't going out to PoCo, or Maple Ridge.

Poco is a 1-stop short jump from Coquitlam Station. A spur in Poco makes sense... It's only about 2000m away. However, Poco is already served by the West Coast Express and so I think there are other priorities.

Maple Ridge, I agree.