The US Census Bureau thread

[fflint]

California is out next week. Oh boy.

Going on what I've seen so far I'm going to make some predictions, which I'm totally pulling out of thin air.

Oakland: I suspect Oakland will show either a population loss or basically no growth, despite a hearty increase in the downtown population--I'm thinking maybe the Reverse Great Migration will show blacks moving out of Oaktown and smaller family sizes among remaining residents.

Sacramento: I suspect Sacramento will have the best numbers for any big city in the state. Going on what I've seen so far in the Census releases, the cities that built suburban housing within city limits boomed the most, and Sacramento did that in spades.

San Francisco: This one is tough. We had a really big increase in downtown housing over the last decade, but we also tore down our public housing projects and replaced at a less than 1:1 ratio. Sound familiar? Add to that the anecdotes we've been hearing for the last decade that families with kids are bum-rushing the exits, and I fear SF will show population decline or, at best, stagnation. Then again, we might be able to pull off some moderate growth like Seattle and DC did. We built a lot of housing and have very low vacancy/repo rates.

San Jose: I expect to see some pretty decent growth in San Jose, not like Charlotte or Fort Worth, but solid gains from medium-density infill in a mostly suburban city with lots of families with children and a densifying, mostly Latino east side.