Population projections for London

[haljackey]

Originally Posted by Kokkei Mizu

Thanks for the link! That is awesome to hear they're developing that part of the city eventually. My favourite part of the plan is that they're looking at street grids again! I don't know when people thought twisty roads was a good thing! Anyway, I wonder about south of the 401 though; this is still north.

You're welcome! It is an interesting read, no?

The SWAP (Southwest Area Plan) is within London's urban growth boundary, which sits just north of Highway 402 along Digman Drive. Any development south of here won't happen until this plan is completed, at least in my opinion.

However I am heavily in favor for development along the 401/402 corridor. There's demand for it, and they will add jobs, so why not do it? Hopefully the City will smarten up after the elections and will actually do something about it.

[ssiguy]

The London city figures are low and that's not just me hoping the city is growing quickly.
Ontario demographic stats on the gov of Ontario website under Finance and demographics section has 2011 Middlesex county population at 460,000 of which 74,000 is in the county itself. Needless to say that means London already has 386,000.
Remember the 352,000 sign is the 2006 StatsCan figure which was 4 years ago and most importantly it didn't include the city under couunt.

[ericlewis91]

I think the most residential growth will be the North and West (but mostly the north!

[Highinthesky]

I hope the trend of high-rise residential development in the core continues. There is enough sprawl in London already and more of it won't help the traffic issue.

I really think the comparison of the K-W are to London isn't a fair one. Sure they are currently similar in size but all of London's growth would have to be natural with job creation coming within its own CMA. K-W has the benefit of increasingly becoming a commuter community for the GTA and Hamilton CMA's on top of their own growth.

[MolsonExport]

^ I too hope that downtown towers keep going up. But please, ban stucco (e.g., Harriston) and exposed grey concrete (e.g., the horror across from Costco near Oxfart and Wonderugly). downtown is stuccoland; the suburbs are a commie-block-paradise of grey concrete slabs.

[Highinthesky]

I know what you mean but there could be worse things than the Harriston, I actually don't think it looks too bad.

Unfortunately the reality of the situation is that downtown property values in London aren't high enough for developers to use more expensive finishes. However is density increases it will drive up values and we could see a change in 20-25 years.

We need a downtown grocery store first.

[haljackey]

London is no longer one of the top 10 largest metros in Canada. K-W kicked us out. It will most likely become official in the 2011 census.

Kinda sad for London, but well-deserved for K-W. Who didn't see this coming?

Besides, London's metro area is a joke, unlike K-W's.

Source: http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/DEMO05A-eng.htm

[ericlewis91]

Originally Posted by haljackey

London is no longer one of the top 10 largest metros in Canada. K-W kicked us out. It will most likely become official in the 2011 census.

Kinda sad for London, but well-deserved for K-W. Who didn't see this coming?

Besides, London's metro area is a joke, unlike K-W's.

Source: http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/DEMO05A-eng.htm

So many reasons (my reasonings)

1) Location (about an hour from so much -> GTA)
2) actual freeway through city
3) GRT is way better then LTC
4) Go Trains/Busses

[Highinthesky]

The Toronto/GTA affect on KW is only going to grow as GO Transit plans on having train service to both cities by the end of 2011.

[haljackey]

Originally Posted by Highinthesky

The Toronto/GTA affect on KW is only going to grow as GO Transit plans on having train service to both cities by the end of 2011.

Not to mention when urban growth reaches the Greenbelt around the GTA. I was in Milton not too long ago and you can see a sea of sprawl with the Niagara escarpment on the horizon. Hardly any room left.

Cities like K-W, Barrie, Oshawa etc will experiences even greater booms when land runs out. The Canadian government tries to send immigrants away from the big cities, but it seems it's not working. The insane housing costs is having little effect on growth in the Toronto Region as well.

London will be a more important place in regards to Toronto when HSR gets built, if it ever does.

[manny_santos]

A couple recent articles in the UWO Gazette are very telling.

http://www.westerngazette.ca/2011/02/03/londons-our-playground-but-its-time-to-move-on/

http://www.westerngazette.ca/2011/02/03/draining-londons-brain/

[haljackey]

Well K-W's metro is also kinda skewed, but it's the opposite of London's. A typical metro has a main city surrounded by smaller ones. London's one main city with hardly anything around it. K-W has no main city.

Originally Posted by manny_santos

A couple recent articles in the UWO Gazette are very telling.

This is nothing new.

[Simpseatles]

I hate how Southern Ontario has such a huge difference between areas that are growing and doing well (Toronto, K-W, Barrie) and ones that are stagnating, or even losing people (Windsor, Sarnia, St. Catherines). I think London is between the 2 extremes.

[haljackey]

Originally Posted by Simpseatles

I hate how Southern Ontario has such a huge difference between areas that are growing and doing well (Toronto, K-W, Barrie) and ones that are stagnating, or even losing people (Windsor, Sarnia, St. Catherines). I think London is between the 2 extremes.

You forgot the word radical.

Cities like Brampton, Barrie, Mississauga, Vaughan, etc. all had low growth rates until Boom! They grew like weeds.

K-W is starting to see this to a certain extent. Windsor is seeing the opposite.

London is one of the few cities in Ontario with a consistent growth rate (1-1.5% per year). Hamilton doesn't fare too badly here either. You can say this growth rate is healthier as it allows city planners to prepare for growth and create long-term planing policies. Unfortunately this isn't always taken advantage of (i.e. London) but it can be a considerable asset for the city if used well.

[Snark]

Originally Posted by haljackey

Well K-W's metro is also kinda skewed, but it's the opposite of London's. A typical metro has a main city surrounded by smaller ones. London's one main city with hardly anything around it. K-W has no main city.

Very true: Waterloo Region is like a centreless amoeba that continues to grow, and as time passes will continue to increasingly orbit within Toronto's gravity. This is neither a good nor bad thing, it just is. The concern is that it will become the new Milton in the long term.

London is a very centrally laid out city, but is forced to make things happen for itself independent of (and in fact in competition of) the GTA. It has a very large draw area and a good set of it's own satellite communities, but everything is on a smaller scale than TO. Such challenges are large in today's environment of consolidation.

Although London and Waterloo Region are neighbours, both communities live under very different auspices. The growth challenges are quite different. It's really apples and oranges.

[Highinthesky]

Great link to the Stats Canada site. Really highlighted how wrong your commuter argument is. The fact that the City of Waterloo, a city with less than a third the population of London, has fewer commuters to the GTA is hardly surprising. The difference was actually 5 commuters, 1295 for Waterloo and 1300 for London. What is surprising is that 700 people in London say they commute to Toronto while 520 say the same in Waterloo. Not very reflective of the populations so it must be that Waterloo is a lot closer.

In the entire KW CMA, an area far more similar to the City of London than Waterloo, nearly 10,000 people commute to the GTA/Toronto and what people are saying in this thread is that this number is going to increase greatly not decrease so in fact KW's growth is going to increasingly be GTA/Toronto driven.

[Highinthesky]

No one is comparing or implying that KW is Milton or Newmarket, talk about reading what you want to read haha.

What people are saying is that the GTA/Toronto most certainly is having impact on growth in the KW CMA as evident by the fact that nearly 10,000 commute from KW to the GTA/Toronto. Then they say that this impact is going to grow not diminish. Why else would GO Transit be expanding service into the area unless the demand for transit into the GTA/Toronto is going to increase.

Finally they only mention this because when comparing the growth in London CMA to KW CMA the KW area has the added advantage of having growth in the form of GTA commuters. You can't really argue this point; your own stats prove this.

[haljackey]

Originally Posted by Cambridgite

Comparing KW to Milton or Newmarket is borderline trollish.

True, but it can increasingly be compared to cities that are within an hour drive to Toronto. Examples include Barrie and Oshawa.

Of course KWGC has a lot more character to it than these other cities. Eventually the bubble may expand to cities within a 2 hour drive of Toronto (London).

I find it much better to compare cities using the 'urban' population rather than metro/CMA. London was 352k in the 2006 census, and less than 2k more are added when you factor in the urban area. CMA adds about 100k which makes no sense because there is nothing around us.

In addition, the K-W-C urban population far exceeds London's.

In short,
-The urban population of London better reflects the City.
-The urban population of K-W-C better reflects the CMA.

It's a good middle ground which is accurate of the respective cities IMO.

[Simpseatles]

SIZE MATTERS: Edged by powerhouse regional rival, city loses longtime bragging rights

By NORMAN DE BONO, The London Free Press

London has lost its bragging rights as Canada’s 10th largest city, overtaken by nearby economic powerhouse Waterloo Region.

According to Statistics Canada, Waterloo Region topped the London area by a 141 people in 2010.

The London region, defined as the census metropolitan area, had 492,249 people to Waterloo Region’s 492,390.

“This is a cause for concern,” said Coun. Joni Baechler, who has been vocal on the issue of economic development.

“I think we need to understand why this has happened, why we are moving down as others move up.”

London has lost the cachet that comes with being in the top 10 — and it may affect economic development, she said.

“It is an important symbol. We are lagging behind.”

Mayor Joe Fontana said London has trouble keeping the residents it has and attracting newcomers as population growth here averages about 1% annually.

“We need to grow. We held . . . 10th for a long time, and I want this city to go up, not down.”

Job creation is needed to attract and retain residents, he said.

“The two are related. The more opportunities are here, the more people we will have.”

Fontana would like to see London add 8,000 to 10,000 people while he is in office.

He’s convinced a focused economic development strategy will help, and this issue will be one for his economic development advisory council, he said.

“We have to create 11,000 jobs here just to catch up to pre-recession levels,” said Gerry Macartney, chief executive of the London Chamber of Commerce. “If we had those jobs back, we would be well past Kitchener-Waterloo.

“This is really about our economy, our job losses.”

Macartney credited Kitchener-Waterloo Region with innovation, saying it’s an area where London needs to improve.

“They are connected, they are doing research and development, it is what they stand for these days. It is a magnet.”

The population figures are for the census metropolitan areas of both communities, taking into account London and seven surrounding communities, and the Kitchener-Waterloo-Camridge area.

Kitchener-Waterloo has focused on attracting and developing technology industries, lead by Research In Motion, makers of the BlackBerry. The strategy is driving economic growth.

According to Statistics Canada, the fastest-growing cities are out west: Saskatoon, Vancouver and Regina.

[Highinthesky]

CMA adds about 100k which makes no sense because there is nothing around us.

London's CMA includes St Thomas, Strathroy-Caradoc, Middlesex Centre, and all the other little rural hamlets around the city which makes up the additional 100k or so.