Quote:
Originally Posted by djh
Very unlikely Diane Watts would put that as a priority over other jurisdictions. Not only would all of her Surrey provincial voters (assuming she became an MLA) consider it a massive betrayal of Surrey First, but she has even come out and said something along those lines - that the UBC Line should not be allowed to jump the queue.
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- Broadway Line was bumped back by the Expo Line due to provincial politics and priorities
- Broadway Line was bumped back by the Millennium Line jumping the queue due to provincial politics and priorities
- Broadway Line was bumped back by the Canada Line, AND the Evergreen Line due to provincial politics and priorities along with municipal politics
A report by a couple of bureaucrats that recommended a Surrey Line take equal or greater priority if only one can be built by 2040 based on loose projections, I don't see how Surrey deserves to be first in line.
There is a presumption that it is not even just for Surrey, but for all the neglected South of Fraser communities who benefit the most from billions of Translink dollars on bridges and highways which offload their own municipality's traffic.... but once there is a concrete proposal, everyone who presumed their life would benefit will realize that most of them are disappointed since the population is too spread out to make most of them happy
There is an argument that it's too expensive to live closer to work, and thus a new line is necessary. It may not be a free choice, as we can't put growing up and forming a family on hold, but renting is an alternative to ownership. Housing bubbles come and go, indeed they are a regular feature in the lower mainland although the current one is certainly a record. So when the new suburban homes can barely be given away, and homes closer to work are affordable -- do the then new families deserve to be punished for living closer to work and in a community that contributes enough revenue to sustain the services they would like?
If Watts does become premier, there won't be enough money to start anything right away. If she's still in power around the end of Evergreen's construction, the whole housing market will be much different than it is today and there won't be unified support for a Surrey extension since most will be unhappy. Judging by the globalair photos of the last 3 decades and the pattern of growth along the Broadway corridor forming a business district ring outside downtown, the fact developers are the biggest political influence in local politics up to the provincial level, that the demand for a Broadway Line service is a sure thing -- either a Broadway Line is first to be constructed, or there will be a schism in Translink and Vancouver leads its own project
The biggest factor is the real estate market. Outer burbs get hit the hardest as taxes don't cover services, properties at the fringe can only compete on price, and development fees dry up. All the cities will be hit, and while Vancouver may be hit the hardest in terms of lost notional wealth, it will be the first place new developments go ahead and have its average prices sustain the highest level.
Longer term, yes Surrey will continue to grow, and this contraction will help prepare the city for the next phase of growth in a more efficient way. But Surrey won't have the clout to skip two steps ahead for something discretionary at this time. LRT today might make sense, there is room for it and it can be laid quickly. However, as everyone is keen to point out, Surrey is growing. There will come a time when there is too much congestion, and more transit demand. At which point you're behind having sunk money into an LRT network delivering the service of a local bus, and needing to build a fully grade separated rail network.
The greatest features of Metro Vancouver have come from taking it one step at at time. Even Dubai can't make the magic happen while skipping steps, with all the money that was spent there.
p.s.
Broadway 25 years ago:
http://www.globalairphotos.com/gallery/BC/Vancouver/Central/1985/
Broadway today:
http://www.globalairphotos.com/gallery/BC/Vancouver/Central
Guildford 24 years ago:
http://www.globalairphotos.com/gallery/BC/Surrey/Guildford/1986/
Guildford today:
http://www.globalairphotos.com/gallery/BC/Surrey/Guildford/2010