Millennium Line - Evergreen Extension | Completed

[nname]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

Excellent posts by everyone.

If I may add... back of napkin calculations here:

Evergreen Line has 4 stations. (5 to 7 stations)
That's 25% of the Canada Line amount. (38% or 50%, depend if you count the branches as 1 or 2)
Canada Line uses 16 trains. (14 trains)
Approximately the same service on EG would be 4 trains. (5 to 7 trains)

I'm sure that if all the MKIs came to M-Line they could make another 4 trains by just taking apart the 6-car trains and running them all as 4s. That was we have the capacity and I doubt frequency would be affected much at all.

I'll let someone else do the real calculations.

But keep in mind that the Millennium Line is currently running pretty close to capacity. At startup, the extra riders from Evergreen Line would pretty much double the ridership on the Millennium Line route west of Lougheed. So the capacity on the M-Line needed to be increased as well, and whichever is running on the Evergreen Line would likely be continued to VCC-Clark.

And don't forget the extra demand between Broadway and Downtown.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by nname

But keep in mind that the Millennium Line is currently running pretty close to capacity. At startup, the extra riders from Evergreen Line would pretty much double the ridership on the Millennium Line route west of Lougheed. So the capacity on the M-Line needed to be increased as well, and whichever is running on the Evergreen Line would likely be continued to VCC-Clark.

And don't forget the extra demand between Broadway and Downtown.

How can any skytrain line be running "at capacity" when it ran with 4x the passengers during the Olympics? I'm not suggesting those crush loads at all times, but clearly there is already "extra capacity" in the system given the number of trains running.

[Zassk]

Yeah, the notion that Millennium Line is "pretty close to capacity" seems like a gross overstatement. This line moved what, 70k/day in 2007 and maybe a bit over 80k/day in 2009. How can its gilded 80m stations and 70m trains be considered close to capacity? The toy-train C-Line is moving more people with less resources, and we've proven that it has tons of unused capacity.

[nname]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

How can any skytrain line be running "at capacity" when it ran with 4x the passengers during the Olympics? I'm not suggesting those crush loads at all times, but clearly there is already "extra capacity" in the system given the number of trains running.

Because the travel time is more spread out.

This is from the RTM document, for the 2011 scenario (I guess it means the ridership when the ALRT is operating on 2011):
Maximum demand between Lougheed and Guildford: 3800pphpd
Maximum additional demend between Brentwood and Lougheed: 3000pphpd
Maximum additional demend between Broadway and Brentwood: 2800pphpd

Current demand (2007) Broadway to Brentwood: 2700pphpd
Total demand: 6500pphpd

So if you run 4-MKI cars every 5.5 minutes, we must pack 147 people into a car.
(Note: The capacity of the car is 80, and the maximum crush load observed, according to the document, is around 100)

Originally Posted by Zassk

Yeah, the notion that Millennium Line is "pretty close to capacity" seems like a gross overstatement. This line moved what, 70k/day in 2007 and maybe a bit over 80k/day in 2009. How can its gilded 80m stations and 70m trains be considered close to capacity? The toy-train C-Line is moving more people with less resources, and we've proven that it has tons of unused capacity.

Have to taken the train during morning peak? It is probably more crowded than Expo Line anywhere east of Nanaimo or 29th avenue.

And M-Line actually uses less resource than C-Line until about 6 months ago. (10 trains consist of mostly 2-MKIIs)

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by nname

Because the travel time is more spread out.

This is from the RTM document, for the 2011 scenario (I guess it means the ridership when the ALRT is operating on 2011):
Maximum demand between Lougheed and Guildford: 3800pphpd
Maximum additional demend between Brentwood and Lougheed: 3000pphpd
Maximum additional demend between Broadway and Brentwood: 2800pphpd

Current demand (2007) Broadway to Brentwood: 2700pphpd
Total demand: 6500pphpd

So if you run 4-MKI cars every 5.5 minutes, we must pack 147 people into a car.
(Note: The capacity of the car is 80, and the maximum crush load observed, according to the document, is around 100)

I don't dispute your math, but if you're telling me that the ridership along the M-Line will increase from 2700 to 6500 with the Evergreen Line (more than double), I simply don't believe it.

The ridership estimates are what, 40,000 per day? Up to 70,000 in 2020, which many people still feel is on the high side?

Not to mention that people getting on at Lougheed can catch whatever train shows up first, since they are all heading downtown. I think it's equal time from Lougheed, either riding around the "long" way, or taking the M-Line to Commercial and transferring.

[nname]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I don't dispute your math, but if you're telling me that the ridership along the M-Line will increase from 2700 to 6500 with the Evergreen Line (more than double), I simply don't believe it.

Millennium Line have ridership of 50000 (not including the one on train leaving Columbia), with peak travel in both directions (east or north to Lougheed/Production), and have ridership of 2700pphpd.

Canada Line have ridership of 90000, with peak travel in both direction (about 2:1 split), and is currently at about 4500pphpd during peak.

Evergreen Line would have ridership of 60000 (or 40000 as the members of this forum suggests), with peak travel mainly in one direction (AM westbound, PM eastbound)... ridership of 2800pphpd isn't stretching, really...

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Not to mention that people getting on at Lougheed can catch whatever train shows up first, since they are all heading downtown. I think it's equal time from Lougheed, either riding around the "long" way, or taking the M-Line to Commercial and transferring.

This is the case now. But when Evergreen Line is completed, people who already on the train will stay on the train to Commercial. People who take the train at Braid and go southbound will also stay on the train to Commercial. This is assuming the train would run as either the double coordinated, break at CO, or split tail configuration.

[Bureaucromancer]

I'm not sure if anyone's mentioned it yet, but what about keeping interlining (sort of) by terminating E-Line originating trains at Lougheed and interlining all M-line to Evergreen. The only thing that really jumps out at me is that we could end up with the E-line eventually having three branches and M/Broadway/Evergreen unlikely to get so much as a single split (although if 90 seconds really is possible it should still be possible to get 5 minute service on all branches).

It also strikes me that someone should find a better name than Evergreen, at least something with a different first letter from the other routes given how well a letter based designation would work if made official.

[Zassk]

Originally Posted by nname

So if you run 4-MKI cars every 5.5 minutes, we must pack 147 people into a car.

But that's not what will be running, is it?

September 2009 project update says the line will run 3 minute frequency at rush hour.
We would need about 22 trains to give 3-minute frequency from VCC-Clark to Douglas.
We have enough MKI cars on hand to build 25 x 6-MKI trains or 37 x 4-MKI trains.
This gives a capacity of 9600 pphpd with 6-MKI trains, or 6400 pphpd with 4-MKI trains.

This will leave Expo Line with enough MKII cars to build 23 x 4-MKII trains.
This gives a maximum frequency of 3.5 minutes on Expo Line, for a capacity of about 9600 pphpd, without borrowing any MKI trains.
Expo Line probably wants that option of 14 extra MKII cars to be purchased in this scenario...

The Sapperton-Braid leg will consume about 3-4 additional trains, regardless of how the lines are ultimately segregated, but conceivably that leg will never need longer than 2-car trains.


Edit - Realistically, with our existing rolling stock, we would run the lines something like this at peak hour:

22 x 4-MKI trains on Millennium/Evergreen at 3-minute intervals (6400 pphpd)
22 x 4-MKII trains on Expo, plus a few 6-MKI trains, at 3-minute intervals (12000 pphpd)
3 x 2-MKI trains shuttle between Columbia and Lougheed at 6-minute intervals (2400 pphpd)

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by Bureaucromancer

I'm not sure if anyone's mentioned it yet, but what about keeping interlining (sort of) by terminating E-Line originating trains at Lougheed and interlining all M-line to Evergreen. The only thing that really jumps out at me is that we could end up with the E-line eventually having three branches and M/Broadway/Evergreen unlikely to get so much as a single split (although if 90 seconds really is possible it should still be possible to get 5 minute service on all branches).

Yeah, it's been mentioned and is probably a likely possibility given the current difficulty in short-turning an M-Line train at Columbia (if the M-Line were the line to be branched).

[nname]

Originally Posted by Zassk

22 x 4-MKII trains on Expo, plus a few 6-MKI trains, at 3-minute intervals (12000 pphpd)

Not enough in capacity. Expo Line west of Broadway required at least 16000pphpd to keep up with demand.

If they REALLY want to get away without buying new trains, lets see...

Capacity required:
E1 Waterfront-Broadway: 15500
E2 Broadway-Metrotown: 11000
E3 Metrotown-Columbia: 8000
E4 Columbia-King George: 6000
M1 VCC/Clark-Lougheed: 6500
M2 Lougheed-Columbia: whatever...
G1 Lougheed-Guildford: 3800

Capacity available:
2-MKI: 160
4-MKI: 320
6-MKI: 480
2-MKII: 260
4-MKII: 520

Segment E1 requires 31 4-MKII trains per hour, E2 requires 22, E3 requires 16. So putting a train on Expo Line every 108 seconds, with destination alternating between Broadway-King George-Metrotown-King George.. this would requires:
3x 4-MKII trains doing Waterfront-Broadway shuttle
5.5x 4-MKII trains doing Waterfront-Metrotown shuttle
22.5x 4-MKII trains doing the entire Expo Line

This requires 124 MKII cars, but there's only 108 (or 100+spares) available. So we have to substitute 6 of the trains with 6-cars MKIs.

Now the Millennium/Evergreen Line. Assuming they're all running 4-cars. 21 trains per hour would be required for segment M1 and 12 trains for segment G1. So for the sake of easy scheduling, we just put a train every 2.5min on Millennium, with destination alternating between Lougheed and Guildford. This would requires:
8x 4-MKI trains doing VCC/Clark-Lougheed
14x 4-MKI trains doing VCC/Clark-Guildford

So far, 100 MKII cars and 124 MKI cars are used. Since the spare ratio required for the MKI is 12%, so only 10 more MKI cars is available.

The Expo Line trains arrives at Columbia every 3.6 minutes.. so we'll just run the Columbia-Lougheed shuttle every 3.6 minutes too, and it'll need 5 trains and gives a capacity of 2600pphpd:
5x 2-MKI toy trains doing Columbia-Lougheed

So I guess its really doable without buying any new train, but the entire system would be just running at capacity at day 1 and there'll be no room for any ridership growth.

[DKaz]

Frequencies could be modified as follows:

Waterfront to King George - 1.67/3.33 minutes (slight improvement from current 1.8/3.6)
Waterfront to VCC-Clark - 10 minutes
Waterfront to Broadway (AM) - 10 minutes
Waterfront to Metrotown (PM) - 10 minutes
Douglas College to VCC-Clark - 10 minutes

So effectively, frequencies between Waterfront and Broadway(AM) or Metrotown (PM) would be 100 seconds, Broadway/Metrotown to Columbia 100/100/100/100/200 seconds, Columbia to King George 100/200 seconds, Columbia to Lougheed 10 minutes, Lougheed to VCC-Clark 5 minutes (improved from 5.4 minutes), and Lougheed to Douglas College 10 minutes.

The number of trainsets required during PM peak would be:
Waterfront to Metrotown - 22
Metrotown to Columbia - 12
Columbia to King George - 8
Columbia to Lougheed - 2
VCC-Clark to Lougheed - 8

Total = 52
Spares required = 6

Which would allow for 27 4-car MKII sets, 19 4-car MKI sets, and 12 6-car MKI sets.

Add in Lougheed to Douglas College, you need 3 sets.

Total = 55
Spares required = 6
Total w/ Spares = 61

Which would allow for 27 4-car MKII sets, 28 4-car MKI sets, and 6 6-car MKI sets. I believe this is what we have now? In essence, we could get away with not buying new trains for the first little bit. Surrey gets an 7% increase in frequency, New West and Burnaby get a 10% reduction in frequency (but there is too much capacity there anyway), Columbia to Lougheed gets a 46% reduction in frequency (meh), Vancouver to Broadway or Metrotown gets a 6% increase in frequency, Millennium Line gets a 7% increase in frequency, and Evergreen Line starts with 2616 ppphd.

If 6 4-car MKI sets were the spares, I proportioned an average capacity per train set at 436.

Waterfront to Broadway/Metrotown - 15696 ppphd
Broadway/Metrotown to Columbia - 13080 ppphd
Columbia to King George - 10464 ppphd

VCC-Clark to Lougheed - 5232 ppphd
Lougheed to Douglas and Lougheed to Columbia - 2616 ppphd each

Done and done. Where's my paycheque, Translink?

[Bureaucromancer]

While I do acgnowledge the need if there aren't going to be any new vehicles, I really hate the idea of Lougheed shuttle. In fact, I wonder if it might be a better idea to run Evergreen as a shuttle if that really does become the situation.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Bureaucromancer

While I do acgnowledge the need if there aren't going to be any new vehicles, I really hate the idea of Lougheed shuttle. In fact, I wonder if it might be a better idea to run Evergreen as a shuttle if that really does become the situation.

I think there would more people travelling from Burquitlam to Production than from Braid to Production. So running Evergreen Line as shuttle would force even more transfers...

And looking at this figure:


How would you cope with the difference in demand west and south of Lougheed station?

[Bureaucromancer]

Originally Posted by nname

How would you cope with the difference in demand west and south of Lougheed station?

My preference would be to find enough vehicles to run the Columbia Lougheed section as a branch of one of the other lines. You'd still need a transfer, but it avoids the obnoxious double transfer to get between the lines outside downtown.

[Zassk]

^ That's a great diagram, although the Canada Line is badly underestimated, in that we now know that the load is much bigger from Waterfront to Brighouse than what is shown.

Anyway, the diagram clearly shows that Columbia-Lougheed should be the lowest priority segment of the whole network. Trains will go east-west from Clark to Douglas, and from Waterfront to King George.

We can be quite confident that there will be no more interlining in the manner seen today, so DKaz's computations are irrelevant.

If there is any segment that should be interlined, it is obviously the segment from Comm/Broadway to Waterfront, with tracks connected at Comm/Broadway. But the need for that may go away once Millennium connects to City Hall.

[GeeCee]

Evergreen line shuttle won't happen, as interlining with Millennium line is a priority..

#
Evergreen Line Benefits
# What are the Project Benefits?

* Building on the strength of the existing rapid transit network, the Evergreen Line, using SkyTrain technology, will bring many benefits to the region.

Key benefits include:

Better Service

* Two and a half times more ridership than an LRT system (70,000 per day by 2021)
* Direct connection, without transfer, onto the Millennium Line
* Frequent (every 3 minutes during peak periods, service almost 20 hours a day)

http://evergreenline.gov.bc.ca/faq.htm

[WarrenC12]

In retrospect, Columbia to Lougheed should have been LRT.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Zassk

^ That's a great diagram, although the Canada Line is badly underestimated, in that we now know that the load is much bigger from Waterfront to Brighouse than what is shown.

Actually, the diagram shows the 2021 ridership.. for Canada Line, they estimated that there will be 143,200 boardings a day. Their 2011 estimate for Canada Line is 117,600... I'd say its pretty accurate actually.

[red-paladin]

Yeah, no offense, but anyone who thinks the Millennium line trains run near empty is out to lunch. I take it every day to work and back. These days they have 4 and 6 car Mk I and 2 and 4 car Mk II trains running. In rush hour often getting a seat is impossible.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by red-paladin

Yeah, no offense, but anyone who thinks the Millennium line trains run near empty is out to lunch. I take it every day to work and back. These days they have 4 and 6 car Mk I and 2 and 4 car Mk II trains running. In rush hour often getting a seat is impossible.

I actually agree. The only reason I always get a seat is because I start from VCC-Clark. But once the train gets to Commercial. Almost every seat is taken and usually there is a few people standing. This is always around 2:40-2:45 pm M-F.