Council on verge of airport decision
Only a few leave much doubt about inclination
By Scott Mckeen, The Edmonton JournalJune 22, 2009 6:53 AM
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City council will vote in early July to close the City Centre Airport.
Book it. You read it here first. Fire up the bulldozers. It's a done deal.
Mind you, I also predicted Bill Smith to win in 2004 and Mike Nickel in 2007. So, like, don't bet the farm.
But fools rush in, again and again. So here is my prediction on how council will vote on the most crazy-making civic issue since the cat bylaw. I include a rating of how each council member is leaning on the vote -- towards closure, or status quo -- to make things more accurate. And to cover my 🞵🞵🞵🞵.
-Mayor Stephen Mandel, 80--20 closure.
Mandel's feelings on the matter were made clear in his recent state of the city speech. Unless Muni boosters reveal some compelling public interest in keeping the airport open, Mandel wants closure--to both the airport and the debate.
-Karen Leibovici, 75--25, closure. Leibovici's politics, as I've said before, are unpredictable. But she's a pragmatist and will focus on benefits to Edmonton, not Alberta, in making her decision. Leibovici knows her mind and is near bulletproof to lobbying.
-Linda Sloan, 80--20, status quo. Sloan is deeply worried for people
of the north if the Muni closes and medevacs are relocated. Yet her own ward was pro-consolidation and likely pro-closure. Linda Sloan, meet Mark Norris.
-Ron Hayter, 90--10, status quo. Hayter has long been the Muni's
best friend on council. He made his mind up on this one before many of you were born.
-Kim Krushell, 80--20, closure. Krushell spent the last few months
researching the airport questions. She's swayed by the opportunity to redevelop the lands, as well as the opportunity costs in not doing so.
Her ward is pro-airport. But Krushell tends to vote with her head and heart, damn the politics.
-Tony Caterina, 100--0, status quo.
Caterina has spent much of his political capital this term defending the Muni. Weird. It's not like many voters in Ward 3 get to use the Muni.
-Ed Gibbons, 50--50. Gibbons certainly cares about Edmonton's relationship with northern communities. But he won't be keen to appear as Caterina's ally, or convert, on the issue.
-Jane Batty, 60--40, closure. Batty is a staunch Mandel loyalist,
but also friends with old money in Edmonton--people with private planes.
Yet her urban constituents aren't pleased with the airport's impact on downtown development. Ultimately, she'll vote for downtown.
-Ben Henderson, 70 -30, closure. Henderson is even more sympathetic to the downtown. His lips are sealed, but I'm told that he's quietly expressed a desire to see the airport closed.
-Bryan Anderson, 55 -45, closure. Anderson is a details guy. He'll want to know this, that and the other thing about trends in the airline industry and how they might impact Edmonton. If he likes the answers, Anderson will vote for closure. If not, not.
-Don Iveson, 70-30, closure. Iveson is the environmentalist on council. And he's a wonk.
So, he'll favour the idea of building a high-density, environmentally sustainable community on the airport site, with direct LRT access to downtown.
The politics or emotion won't faze him.
-Amarjeet Sohi, 60 -40, closure. Sohi, like Iveson, is new to the debate and free of any old grudges. Sohi is also big on transit and sustainable communities.
He gets branded a union guy. But except for one lame exception, the unions have been mostly quiet on the airport question.
-Dave Thiele, 80-20, status quo. I'm told by sever al sources that Thiele is adamantly in favour of the airport. Why?Who knows with this guy.
So there you have the rundown. The pro-closure side has a bit of an edge, but information at the public hearings could tip the balance. I suspect not, though.
I expect we're going to hear the same old arguments, over and over. I expect the vote will be 9-4 or 8-5 in favour of closing the airport.
Note:Edmonton will still have four other regional airports to handle scheduled service, charters, flight training and medevacs.
Private plane owners can even lease hangar space at the International Airport.
For their benefit, that's the airport by Leduc.
The vast majority of Edmontonians use it all the time.
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