Winnipeg | NHL Jets

[midnightrambler]

NHL A Five Year Plan:

Canadian Northwest Divison
Vancouver
Calgary
Edmonton
Winnipeg
Saskatoon

US Southwest Division
San Jose
Los Angeles
Anaheim
Colorado
Dallas

Central Division
Minnesota
Columbus
Detroit
St. Louis
Chicago

East Conference

Canadian Northeast
Montreal
Toronto
Hamilton
Ottawa
Quebec City

US Northeast
New York Rangers
New York Islanders
New Jersey Devils
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres

US Southeast
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Carolina
Washington
Flordia

Teams Relocated:
Pheonix to Hamilton (2009)
Nashville to Winnipeg (2010)
Tampa Bay to Quebec City (2011)
Atlanta to Saskatoon (2012)

[wags_in_the_peg]

^^^^ keep dreaming, I wish. unfortunately you left off Las Vegas, Kansas City, Seattle and Hartford, yup Hartford has a potential owner who has $.

[MolsonExport]

Saskatoon?
Metro pop is 241,000 (2007). Assuming that at least 15,000 attendees per game for breakeven, would require 6.2% of the resident population to attend each game.

[h0twired]

Originally Posted by ILYR

Winnipeg would have to bring in at least as #15 New Jersey.

The MTS centre has 15015 seats.
Thus, average tickets prices would be:
1 million revenue = $66.60
0.85 million revenue = $56.61
0.75 million revenue = $49.95
0.65 million revenue = $43.29
0.45 million revenue = $29.97

Now to put this into perspective the Manitoba Moose averaged 7769 in attendance 2008-2009.
Tickets range from 22.5-42.50

I haven't worked out the average ticket price for a Moose game, but if we assume an average ticket price of 28 then the per game ticket revenue for the Moose is:
$217,535

If the average ticket price stayed the same and the MTS centre was sold out, then:
$420,420

This is almost as much as Phoenix at $450,000. Note that Phoenix paid attendance is in dispute, so how much they actually bring in will likely be different.

Thus, realistically Winnipeg should be similar to New Jersey or Buffalo.

I would pay $50 for a game. For NHL that is reasonable.

Are the prices you quotes in USD or CAD currencies?

$56 may be for an average ticket. However those average prices also are based on the fact that the lower bowl tickets START at around $100 CAD and go as high as $250 CAD. Are there enough Winnipeggers willing to buy 5000+ sets of seasons tickets at $100-250/ticket? Also in those scenarios it is unlikely that the cheapest nosebleed tickets will be never be less than $35. Is that still affordable enough for families?

The Buffalo Sabres and NJ Devils also have pretty big arenas. The Devils play in the Prudential Center (17,600 seats) and the Sabres play in the HSBC Center (18,250 seats). Are the average ticket sales figures due to regular sell-out crowds? So for them to get 15,000 people in the arena means that they could still have 2000-3000 empty seats per game at $56/ticket.

What happens to revenue if Winnipeg is unable to have constant sell-out crowds? What if the MTS Centre is only seeing 13,500 people per game? An ownership group would most likely have to take that into account when pricing seats. It may drive your average price up to $70 just to ensure the team breaks even if they team plays as well as a team like Phoenix does now.

[midnightrambler]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Saskatoon?
Metro pop is 241,000 (2007). Assuming that at least 15,000 attendees per game for breakeven, would require 6.2% of the resident population to attend each game.

I am confident it would be a provincial affair. You would see people from North Battleford 1 Hour away (20,000) Prince Albert less than an hour away(40,000) Regina two hours away (200,000) and all the small towns all over the province come to Saskatoon to see games. It could take this long to drive on a LA freeway if you live in Malibu to see a Ducks or Kings game. Or if you live in Oshawa or Vaughn and want to see a Leafs game. I'd say we have a potential audience of 700,000-800,000, not 241,000.

We would need to expand CUC. min 16,000 avg ticket price $65 and we would have over 1 million a game revenue. Which would be more than double that of Pheonix. And we would sell out every game.

With the ticket price of $65 in Winnipeg they would sell out every game as well... There is no contest. There are franchises in Nashville, Flordia, Tampa Bay and Atlanta because the NHL is trying to grow the sport in non-traditional markets.... and for the most part it isn't working. So guess what, its back to hockey fans.

[ILYR]

Originally Posted by h0twired

Are the prices you quotes in USD or CAD currencies?

$56 may be for an average ticket. However those average prices also are based on the fact that the lower bowl tickets START at around $100 CAD and go as high as $250 CAD. Are there enough Winnipeggers willing to buy 5000+ sets of seasons tickets at $100-250/ticket? Also in those scenarios it is unlikely that the cheapest nosebleed tickets will be never be less than $35. Is that still affordable enough for families?

The Buffalo Sabres and NJ Devils also have pretty big arenas. The Devils play in the Prudential Center (17,600 seats) and the Sabres play in the HSBC Center (18,250 seats). Are the average ticket sales figures due to regular sell-out crowds? So for them to get 15,000 people in the arena means that they could still have 2000-3000 empty seats per game at $56/ticket.

What happens to revenue if Winnipeg is unable to have constant sell-out crowds? What if the MTS Centre is only seeing 13,500 people per game? An ownership group would most likely have to take that into account when pricing seats. It may drive your average price up to $70 just to ensure the team breaks even if they team plays as well as a team like Phoenix does now.

My mistake, they are in CAD. Although in the last year the CAD has ranged from 0.8 to 1.1 USD. Today it opened at 0.85 and is predicted to rise to 0.9 by the end of the year. That being said one would have to add 10-15% (on average) to above prices. That would make things less viable. However, I think your number are too high.

As far as ticket prices: The upper bowl at MTS is 6203 seats and the lower bowl is 8812 (includes boxes). Total 15015 seats.

Here are 3 scenarios given in CAD and USD (using CAD exchange of 0.85):
Number show revenue per game for lower, upper, and total seating.

Scenario 1 (assuming the $100 - 250 range for lower bowl as you have noted above)
Lower bowl average ticket $150: 1321800 CAD 1123530 USD
Upper bowl average ticket $50: 440600 CAD 374510 USD
Total 1762400 CAD 1498040 USD (average ticket $117 CAD $99 USD)

Scenario 2
Lower bowl average ticket $75: 660900 CAD 561765 USD
Upper bowl average ticket $35: 217105 CAD 184539 USD
Total 878005 CAD 746304 USD (average ticket $58.50 CAD $49.70 USD)

Scenario 3
Lower bowl average ticket $60: 528720 CAD 449412 USD
Upper bowl average ticket $25: 155000 CAD 131750 USD
Total 683720 CAD 581162 USD (average ticket 45.50 CAD $38.70 USD)

The first scenario would give Winnipeg $200000 more than Calgary and $400000 more than Edmonton per game revenue. Edmonton average ticket price 2008 was $62 CAD. So the 100-250 ticket range for the lower bowl is way too high. I think Scenario 2 is more realistic.

As far as attendance for the Sabres and NJ, the Sabers averaged 18,531 in 2009 (100% capacity) and NJ 15,790 in 2009 (89% capacity).
The MTS is 0.85% the size of NJ arena. I think Winnipeg fans would pay 15% more for a ticket than a NJ fan.

The Jets average 13000 from the mid 80's till the second last season (the last season when everyone knew the Jets were leaving was 11000). The economy in Winnipeg has improved, and the population has increased. Thus, I don't see any reason why a new NHL team should not be able to draw 15000 per game in a much better rink, where you can actually see the whole ice surface from every seat!

[midnightrambler]

We all know ticket revenue in Winnipeg is going to be more than a southern US team.

Say 16,000 seat arena
8,000 upper - avg ticket price $40.00. Not unreasonable at all. $320,000 per game revenue.
8,000 lower - avg ticket price $85.00. Not unreasonable at all. $680,000

= 1 Million CDN which is better than the league average. Winnipeg would sell 10,000 -12,000 season tickets at those prices.

[midnightrambler]

Seaso Tickets in Nashville:



Season Tickets in Pheonix (I doubt anyone buys the front row tickets as season tickets except for apparently car companies and banks that like burning borrowed cash):



All upper level tickets are $40 or less and they can't sell out.

Season Tickets in Edmonton (supposedly the weakest franchise in Canada):




As you can see, the average is much much higher in Edmonton than in Nashville and Pheonix.

Rafter tickets are $30 when you have seasons. Those are probably sold out before the season starts.

[circle33]

Originally Posted by midnightrambler

I am confident it would be a provincial affair. You would see people from North Battleford 1 Hour away (20,000) Prince Albert less than an hour away(40,000) Regina two hours away (200,000)

Just for clarification, North Battleford is 130 km from Saskatoon, Prince Albert 140 and Regina 250. While you may be able to make those trips in your stated time frames, most can't and very few would be inclined to do so in the thick of winter.

[wayward_prince]

Originally Posted by midnightrambler

NHL A Five Year Plan:

Canadian Northwest Divison
Vancouver
Calgary
Edmonton
Winnipeg
Saskatoon

US Southwest Division
San Jose
Los Angeles
Anaheim
Colorado
Dallas

Central Division
Minnesota
Columbus
Detroit
St. Louis
Chicago

East Conference

Canadian Northeast
Montreal
Toronto
Hamilton
Ottawa
Quebec City

US Northeast
New York Rangers
New York Islanders
New Jersey Devils
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres

US Southeast
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Carolina
Washington
Flordia

Teams Relocated:
Pheonix to Hamilton (2009)
Nashville to Winnipeg (2010)
Tampa Bay to Quebec City (2011)
Atlanta to Saskatoon (2012)

Saskatoon in 2012? ok this is getting funny! what about the other American cities trying to get teams? Bettman likes America only remember?

[waterloowarrior]

Saskatoon? What about Windsor, St. Catharines, or Oshawa? :p

[rrskylar]

^ What about Flin Flon, The Pas, Churchill or Thompson, maybe every Canadian town over 5000K should have an NHL team because each of those towns has at least 500000K in a 2500 KM radius. (maybe not Churchill)

[midnightrambler]

Originally Posted by rrskylar

^ What about Flin Flon, The Pas, Churchill or Thompson, maybe every Canadian town over 5000K should have an NHL team because each of those towns has at least 500000K in a 2500 KM radius. (maybe not Churchill)

You guys know that this entire province would be committed to a team. I am fairly certain you could make more money here than in certain markets in the us. It's just a hypothetical. It almost happened already, and if it would have happened back in 82' we likely would have folded under a 60 cent dollar as well, but we would have sold out every game.


I hope Winnipeg gets the jets back.

I hope Bettman gets fired and I hope Daly falls on a pitchfork.

[SHOFEAR]

Originally Posted by midnightrambler

I am confident it would be a provincial affair. You would see people from North Battleford 1 Hour away (20,000) Prince Albert less than an hour away(40,000) Regina two hours away (200,000) and all the small towns all over the province come to Saskatoon to see games. It could take this long to drive on a LA freeway if you live in Malibu to see a Ducks or Kings game. Or if you live in Oshawa or Vaughn and want to see a Leafs game. I'd say we have a potential audience of 700,000-800,000, not 241,000.

We would need to expand CUC. min 16,000 avg ticket price $65 and we would have over 1 million a game revenue. Which would be more than double that of Pheonix. And we would sell out every game.

lol. It takes a perfect storm for that "provincial affair" to work for the riders to make coin in a league where costs are a fraction of those in the NHL.

As much fun as it would be to rip on Saskatoon fans for drinkin and tractorin on their way home from a game. No thanks. The Northwest division already is viewed as a remote division that gets minimal coverage. Why any Ed/Cal/Van fan would give that up what little coverage we get thanks to Denver and Minneapolis so people in Winnipeg and the toon can feel included into our special little club is beyond me. Selfish, you bet. But too bad, this is the big leagues and protecting my interest comes first.

[midnightrambler]

Originally Posted by SHOFEAR

lol. It takes a perfect storm for that "provincial affair" to work for the riders to make coin in a league where costs are a fraction of those in the NHL.

As much fun as it would be to rip on Saskatoon fans for drinkin and tractorin on their way home from a game. No thanks. The Northwest division already is viewed as a remote division that gets minimal coverage. Why any Ed/Cal/Van fan would give that up what little coverage we get thanks to Denver and Minneapolis so people in Winnipeg and the toon can feel included into our special little club is beyond me. Selfish, you bet. But too bad, this is the big leagues and protecting my interest comes first.

There is a lack of coverage because the US doesn't give a damn about hockey, and the TSN, CBC market is super-saturated with Leafs and Canadians hype.

A perfect storm for Football in Saskatchewan... Not really. It isn't really comparable. I make it to maybe a game every two years.... It costs peaunuts... Like 30 Bucks, and all the while it is a league that makes teams pick canadian players... We don't have that problem with hockey. When it comes time for the NY Islanders pre-season games. There is a game scheduled between the Huskies and The islanders rookies. I wouldn't be suprised to see the Rookies get whooped.

Anyways, Is Saskatoon a small market city?; yes, probably. Is Saskatchewan a small market province?; probably. Is Winnipeg a small market city?; probably. Is Manitoba a small market province?; probably. Is there more hockey fans in Manitoba and Saskatchewan than Arizona or Tennesse?

You god damn right there is. Probably more REAL money too.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by SHOFEAR

The Northwest division already is viewed as a remote division that gets minimal coverage. Why any Ed/Cal/Van fan would give that up what little coverage we get thanks to Denver and Minneapolis so people in Winnipeg and the toon can feel included into our special little club is beyond me. Selfish, you bet. But too bad, this is the big leagues and protecting my interest comes first.

I guess if the Northwest Division is considered the sticks and nobody cares about it because, as SHO suggests, it is where Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver play, then maybe we don't want to lumped in with those "remote" burgs to begin with.

Fortunately, there is always the Central division, which as luck would have it, is the one that the Jets last played in. This way, everybody's happy!

[feepa]

This thread is full of full-out funnies!!!

A NHL team in Saskatoon? AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

even a team coming back to Winnipeg is laughable. You'll need a whole new arena!!!!

Just keep supporting the Moose. You'll be alright.

[drew]

I have to agree that although the chances are remote for it ever happening, a NHL team in Saskatoon, (or Regina for that matter as long as it's only one in the province as a whole) would probably be wildly successful.

[feepa]

41 games x 17500 = 717500. You'd would almost need the entire population of Saskatchewan to go to at least one game each to sell out general seating.
Don't forget that the money maker is luxury boxes. Usually 40-60 of those per arena in the NHL...

The NHL won't be coming to Saskatoon, or Regina, and even if it did, I would require a significant portion of the population to support it, much more then a CFL franchise (9 games x 30,000 = 270,000)). Don't forget that most CFL games happen on a weekend or Friday night, and you don't have multiple games in one week.

[midnightrambler]

Originally Posted by drew

I have to agree that although the chances are remote for it ever happening, a NHL team in Saskatoon, (or Regina for that matter as long as it's only one in the province as a whole) would probably be wildly successful.

Thank you. I believe you would be correct.