Bob Shallit: Crystal ball for '08 mostly on the mark
By Bob Shallit
Published: Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2008 | Page 1B
Nobody could have predicted the economic calamity that hit the region and country this year.
Nobody.
Still, our crystal ball wasn't too far off the mark in projecting winners, losers and big changes in the local business community.
Here's a look at our predictions from last December. The good, bad and ugly.
Starting with the accurate ones, we suggested that banks would take back at least 12,000 homes in Sacramento County
(the actual total was more than 18,000); that Greyhound would finally announce plans to leave downtown (it did so in May and moves to Richards Boulevard next year); and that the region's office vacancy rate would rise at least 1 percent or more
(it actually went up 2.5 percent, to 19 percent).
We were prophetic, too, in saying tiny D&S Development of Sacramento would continue its star role in the economy by building more residential condo units (including a building almost completed at 14th and R streets) and that the California Highway Patrol would secure new headquarter digs (though the agency ended up going to the Richards Boulevard area, not West Sac, as we expected).
We were prescient about a December opening for the Citizen Hotel downtown – and about the place immediately setting a new standard for local lodging.
We were on target also with the prediction that the renovation of Downtown Plaza would finally be scheduled (work on the multimillion-dollar face-lift begins next month), and that traffic would slow at Sac International Airport after a decade of rapid growth. (The failures of ExpressJet and Aloha Airlines played heavily into the year's estimated 7 percent decline in passenger volume).
Now to the bad.
We struck out entirely with the prediction that CalPERS and CIM Group would deliver a development proposal for the empty block at Third and Capitol Mall and that Sacramento's berry queen, Shari Fitzpatrick, would land an appearance on Oprah Winfrey's TV show. (Getting a public endorsement from rocker Ted Nugent isn't quite the same thing).
We were wrong in predicting that Folsom-based startup SynapSense Corp. would register $30 million in sales. (But the company did well and may hit that mark next year.)
Pride Industries had a fine year, growing revenues 10 percent to a projected $160 million. But that's short of the $200 million we envisioned.
Contrary to our predictions, no development proposals emerged for the west end of K Street (despite the settlement of the dispute between Moe Mohanna and the city).
The United Kingdom-based Fresh & Easy grocery chain discovered a recession is here and delayed its move into Northern California, even while locking down more future store sites in the region. Another miss.
How about the ugly? Try this one on for size. We predicted at least one local company would test the public markets with a stock offering.
Hah! There were no local IPOs in a year when public markets collapsed. Indeed, there were fewer than 50 initial public stock offerings nationally – down from 272 in 2007.
And given the market's uncertainties, next year will probably be worse.
Our grade?
A solid "B," we figure. Good enough to try this again for 2009.
Check out our business and economic forecast here on Thursday.
http://www.sacbee.com/shallit/story/1505445.html