Quote:
Originally Posted by Deez
Absolutely...I'm not denying the existence of a transfer penalty. But to suggest that the city would lose a quarter of its riders due to a transfer between two high-frequency services is absurd.
I have my doubts on this. I assume by "optimal use" you imply (in part) that other E-W streets should be used? If so, I would argue that the added turns would not only be a detractor to service, but would also cause additional operational problems...not to mention traffic problems.
LRT on it's own will not spur denser development. However, LRT in combination with higher costs of travel, higher costs of living, and congestion--all as inevitable as death and taxes--will. BRT will not spur denser development even with those factors considered. Until recently, there was not much reason for dense development in Calgary because land was plentiful and cheap...I would argue that's why Vancouver has been more successful at TOD than Calgary (obviously there's more to it than that...but that's a contributing factor).
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I agree with you that a ridership loss of that magnitude (25%) would not occur. But can we agree that the BRT/tunnel option would obtain a higher ridership than the LRT option because of fewer transfers and higher frequencies?
With regard to East-West streets, I still think that there is quite a bit of potential:
- Prohibiting parking during peaks on Queen Street would free up two lanes of traffic.
- Prohibiting parking during peaks on Albert and Slater would provide much needed breathing room for buses, and cars that are turning into parking lots.
- Opening up Sparks Street during peaks would provide two additional lanes of traffic (again, though, this would not be necessary if you did other things).
- Putting all bus traffic onto the Mackenzie King Bridge and prohibiting all other traffic from using it would mean that buses would no longer be interfered with by cars, trucks and taxis on that busy stretch.
- Buses can use Lyon and Elgin to travel north-south in order to join up with Wellington and the Mackenzie King Bridge. I acknowledge that Elgin would be the weakest link, along with Waller on the other side of the Canal.
- Extending Laurier to Scott would reduce traffic on Albert and Slater noticeably, and allow the City to put in place more stringent restrictions against right turns.
Further, long-term forecasts predict that auto traffic into the downtown core will decline, not increase. From a traffic flow perspective (i.e., ignoring politics), I think it would work when combined with other things (e.g., better fare collection, all-door boarding and more downtown stations) and serving the South with the Southeast Transitway corridor. And perhaps by 2031 tolling will become acceptable and there will be a cordon toll around downtown Ottawa. This would further reduce auto traffic and help buses.
We have seen dense development near Transitway stations and we will no doubt see more of that. Even with good express bus service, there is an incentive to locate near Transitway stations. However, I hope that land prices in Ottawa will never reach Vancouver levels.
Ottawa has significantly higher ridership (measured in modal share of commute trips) than similar-sized Canadian cities. Using Census data, Ottawa-Gatineau is 24% higher than Calgary, 18% higher than Vancouver (25% higher if Abbotsford is included) and 100% higher than Edmonton. Ottawa-Gatineau is closer to Toronto and Montreal than to those three cities. And, as I noted previously, the proportion of commuters who drive to work in Ottawa-Gatineau is lower than any of those five cities.
From my perspective, Ottawa’s biggest mistake was not the decision to go with a BRT system but the failure to optimize it and the lack of integration with the STO.