CHICAGO | Chicago Spire | 610 M / 2,000 FT | 150 FLOORS | NEVER BUILT

[photoLith]

No more talk about this tower not going forward, it makes me suicidal, not really but its all just speculation so stop speculating and we shall see what happens.

[jjk1103]

......in order to end this idle speculation, we need a "forumer" with undisputed integrity, knowledge, and a nose for getting the truth out of wary developers. We need a "forumer" who can march into the Spire sales center and get the truth out of the sales staff, talk to the construction workers on site, leap over tall construction cranes, and get the definitive answers we are all after !!! ..........VICTOR !!!!!!!!!!!!

[BVictor1]

Originally Posted by jjk1103

......in order to end this idle speculation, we need a "forumer" with undisputed integrity, knowledge, and a nose for getting the truth out of wary developers. We need a "forumer" who can march into the Spire sales center and get the truth out of the sales staff, talk to the construction workers on site, leap over tall construction cranes, and get the definitive answers we are all after !!! ..........VICTOR !!!!!!!!!!!!

This is all I can spare.

"> There will be a lull, then activity - as we need to finish off the
7th ring beam in the cofferdam.

>Then it's utilities and sewer.

> We're in talks with contractors and as you can imagine, it's a
complex project - so it's taking some time.

> Yes, we are well north of 30% now

> More to come .... You won't be disappointed."

[Rocket1]

Originally Posted by BVictor1

This is all I can spare.

"> There will be a lull, then activity - as we need to finish off the
7th ring beam in the cofferdam.
"

This may be a dumb question -- but why didn't they bother to complete the cofferdam in the first place?

[LaSalle.St.Station]

coming along nicely.... could do with out the nervous nelly coments ( or jealous antagonism from far away places ) but, this sucka has a foundation now..... nice start.

[harryc]

Originally Posted by Rocket1

This may be a dumb question -- but why didn't they bother to complete the cofferdam in the first place?

The cofferdam is complete, the last 10 feet or so is still buried, along with the rebar sticking out of the top of the caissons. When the tops of the caissons are excavated out another whaler will be required.

[the urban politician]

You know, for those of you who dispute the sales success of this project, lets not forget one thing:

This project supposedly has sold well over 300 units in about 5 months. Your average super-luxury condo project in Chicago is 200-400 units, max. So this is essentially equivalent to selling out an entire project in so short of a time.

Of course, I know it's deeper than that. Probably the least expensive product is what has been selling the most successfully. But I still found it noteworthy to point that out.

[honte]

^ Of course, once again, it must be also pointed out that Kelleher maintains 100% autonomous control over this site, despite having a graded piece of waterproof land with a full foundation for the country's tallest building. That's quite a feat. The project is in absolutely no danger unless the sales just dry out, which I don't see happening.

If the market conditions don't agree with him or lending is too tight, the man is under no pressure to move except from the taxman and antsy buyers (who probably won't be too antsy at all considering many are investors). There is no debt, there are no liens. It couldn't be more different than Waterview.

[Dac150]

Originally Posted by honte

It couldn't be more different than Waterview.

Are you saying that there is potential for that to happen with the Spire? Is the Spire heading in that direction?

The way I see it enough has been sold for them to not complete anything. If anything they'll put it on hold until the market (for these type of units) spruces back up, but from what I've seen there are no signs of that happening (unless I'm missing something). Obviously anything can happen, and the real estate market isn't exactly prime, however the luxury market hasn't seemed to damper (especially in regards to luxury residential apartments).

[Dalton]

It is similar to Waterview in that, in both cases, the developer's stategy was to start construction without bank loans in place and without deep enough pockets to complete construction on their own. Both hoped to speed things along by starting construction to convince enough buyers that the project was "real" and imminent, then to use these buyers to prove to lenders that the project was viable.

But this strategy can only work smoothly in a hot market, when creditors are begging for projects to invest in. In both cases, the developers did not count on the severe depth of the collapse of the both the credit markets and the Chicago condo market. Who's going to give Kelleher a $3 billion loan now? IndyMac?

It's pretty obvious Kelleher is stalling now, hoping the credit market will loosen up next year. Expect just enough sporadic work (not to mention convenient excuses to explain the slow progress) to be performed at the site to placate buyers - just like what went on at Waterview for the past year.

Of course, someday the cycle will reverse itself and this project may still end up being completed as currently envisioned. But, remember, even under the best circumstances, with all the factors aligned in its favor, this project was extremely risky. I think, inevitably, whatever gets built will be much later than the original plan - maybe years later. I wouldn't bet the farm on seeing this thing rise out of the ground next year. And there is a growing possibility that the project may be scaled back. There is nothing magical about 2000' - there are already taller buildings under construction. We could still see this thing at 1800' or 1500' and it will still be the tallest building in the city.

One final thought: I think the final nail in the coffin of this project as currently envisioned would be if Chicago lost its international "up-and-coming" aura by losing the 2016 Olympic bid next year. Kelleher needs many more international buyers for the 1000 or so remaining units. There simply aren't enough interested multimillionaires in Chicago.

[Adam186]

Photo Credit: HarryC




I remember some time seeing a construction diagram posted here before that showed sheet piles around each pair of the 7 exterior columns. They'll drive piles down, excavate, lay the rebar, and pour large amounts of concrete to create the large super columns. This should be exciting!

[chi-arch]

Originally Posted by Dalton

It is similar to Waterview in that, in both cases, the developer's stategy was to start construction without bank loans in place and without deep enough pockets to complete construction on their own. Both hoped to speed things along by starting construction to convince enough buyers that the project was "real" and imminent, then to use these buyers to prove to lenders that the project was viable.

But this strategy can only work smoothly in a hot market, when creditors are begging for projects to invest in. In both cases, the developers did not count on the severe depth of the collapse of the both the credit markets and the Chicago condo market. Who's going to give Kelleher a $3 billion loan now? IndyMac?

It's pretty obvious Kelleher is stalling now, hoping the credit market will loosen up next year. Expect just enough sporadic work (not to mention convenient excuses to explain the slow progress) to be performed at the site to placate buyers - just like what went on at Waterview for the past year.

Of course, someday the cycle will reverse itself and this project may still end up being completed as currently envisioned. But, remember, even under the best circumstances, with all the factors aligned in its favor, this project was extremely risky. I think, inevitably, whatever gets built will be much later than the original plan - maybe years later. I wouldn't bet the farm on seeing this thing rise out of the ground next year. And there is a growing possibility that the project may be scaled back. There is nothing magical about 2000' - there are already taller buildings under construction. We could still see this thing at 1800' or 1500' and it will still be the tallest building in the city.

One final thought: I think the final nail in the coffin of this project as currently envisioned would be if Chicago lost its international "up-and-coming" aura by losing the 2016 Olympic bid next year. Kelleher needs many more international buyers for the 1000 or so remaining units. There simply aren't enough interested multimillionaires in Chicago.

Man, that's a mouthful of bad Karma, right there.

[cbotnyse]

Dalton, I tend to agree with you, however I dont think this will be scaled back. I think it will be finished as planned, but probably at a slower pace. The one reason is the credit market is simply dead at this point. All of the major banks are scrambling to raise capital, not go deeper in debt.

I am nervous about a project of this magnitude in such bad economic times right now. But it will turn around, the question is when.

[EarlyBuyer]

Photos taken by EarlyBuyer 7/20/08

[Dalton]

Originally Posted by cbotnyse

Dalton, I tend to agree with you, however I dont think this will be scaled back. I think it will be finished as planned, but probably at a slower pace. The one reason is the credit market is simply dead at this point. All of the major banks are scrambling to raise capital, not go deeper in debt.

I am nervous about a project of this magnitude in such bad economic times right now. But it will turn around, the question is when.

You may be right about scaling the project back. I don't know what the contracts on the "sold" units specify, but they would probably have to be renegotiated if the building were to be significantly shortened or the number of units changed. That would give many buyers an opportunity to back out, which is too risky.

One thing is for sure - Kelleher would be a fool to sink enough of his own money into this project to keep it going full-steam. And no contractor is going to start work without a gaurantee of payment - certainly not after the Waterview debacle. Construction will not progress as quickly as originally planned until Kelleher secures a construction loan. Expect a few months of a skeleton crew moving small piles of dirt around and doing custodial work. I would be shocked if full-out work on the garage starts this year as planned.

I get the feeling that, regardless of the "happy talk" from his PR machine, Kelleher expected much better than 30% sales by this point. I really want to see this thing built, but realistically it's hanging by a thread now. I truly hope I'm wrong.

[jjk1103]

.......I REALLY hope you are wrong........but my gut instinct (and 30 years in banking) tells me you are probably more right than wrong.....sigh

[Marcu]

Well on the bright side, Chicago really doesn't need any more units to go online any time soon. So it may benefit the health of the city for the time being.

[the urban politician]

I blows me away that a project that's over 30% sold (and rising) within 6 months of sales can possibly be perceived as in jeopardy. Even if the developer sits on this project (as Honte suggested) to wait out this credit mess, he can still ultimately complete it. Why at all should Kelleher be in a rush?

The way I see it, Kelleher sees this as a legacy project and will be willing to take the time needed to see it through to completion.

[Dale]

What amazes me is the posters who KNOW that the project is in jeopardy.

[UberAlles]

Agree with TUP here. Kelleher has never seemed to be in a hurry and will take the time.