Quote:
Originally Posted by ZiZiPop
Such a well thought out argument. Convinced me!
I don't think it would be on par because of the corperate travel that Calgary attracts. Also Calgary is a HUB.
However I believe it would be a lot closer (maybe a million). Anyone actually have the numbers for that?
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I remember in one of the High speed rail studies, that flights between Calgary and Edmonton amounted to something like 600k people a year.
If you assume 100% of those people are coming through Calgary on connections and being 'stolen' it wouldn't increase Edmonton's pax numbers at all since those people would just be taking flights out of Edmonton, it just might change the mix a bit.
By car, I have never seen a study that shows how significant the loss is. ERAA assumes it is large but only back it up by 'common sense and anecdotal evidence.
I would assume this loss is limited by the size of the parking lots at YYC, which is lets say approximately 5000 spots (just looking at the google maps of the park and fly and park and jet lots there are around 3000 spots, plus 1000 in the parkade. I added the 'extra spots' to inflate the results, since I still think they are much smaller than one would think. )
If even half those spots are used by people from Red Deer north, thats 2500 spots, with lets say an average of 1 week stay (might be high but would account for lower than capacity usage most of the time). Thats 130,000 cars. Being generous at 3 persons per car, that is 390,000 pax. Double counting for inbound and outbound thats 780,000 pax.
In this case, Edmonton may be loosing 1.4 million pax a year to Calgary (600,000 aren't really lost, they are just hubbing through Calgary and are still counted on Edmonton's numbers). Hubbing customers aren't lost, only people that drive to Calgary are lost truely.
I think the loss to Calgary numbers are much lower than what many people at the ERAA and just general Edmontonians think. 3 hours is a long drive, and I would be surprised if the number I predicted isn't even a big overshot.