AUSTIN | Projects & Construction II

[ATXboom]

http://www.austintowers.net/Austin_Downtown/index.html

Welcome to Austin: The New Migration Boom
January 03, 2008 21:46 Filed in: Market Analysis

The more people that come to Austin, the stronger the downtown condo market. As Austin grows and expands, the value of central living only goes up. As one of the fastest growing cities in the country, this trend is one of the positive factors supporting long-term growth of the downtown population.

Today's news is good news for downtown residents and bad news for anyone that sits in Austin traffic: new statistics from the census bureau show a dramatic acceleration in migration into Travis county and the rest of the Austin metropolitan area. The latest statistics, covering the full year 2006 (Thanks Census Bureau for the quick turn around!), show that a net 9,405 migrated into Travis county in 2006. This tops the tech boom record of 8,575 set in 2000 and represents a strong turn-around from 2002, 2003, and 2004 when the county experienced a net outbound migration.

Here are the migration statistics from 2000 - 2006:

2000 | +8,575
2001 | +4,867
2002 | -11,402
2003 | -7,152
2004 | -1,787
2005 | +1,602
2006 | +9,405

In addition, total migration into central Texas from California more than doubled over the last two years. Californians represent a major portion of new Austin residents, many of whom come with large amounts of home equity. AustinTower's own survey and readership statistics show that Californians are the most active out-of-state shoppers for downtown Austin condos -- followed by residents of New York, Florida, and Illinois.

[KevinFromTexas]

I'm pretty sure I heard one at the bookstore the other day. She was like, I don't know!

[evergreen1]

Originally Posted by Strayone

jsoto3...your first picture should be on the cover of Monarchs' brochure! Very nice. The buildings patio's are first rate and that photo shows how appealing they will be to lounge within.

Unfortunately this building uses an exterior skin that may create problems. Plaster is notorious for absorbing water. 29 stories of water running down a plaster wall is asking for trouble.

[evergreen1]

Originally Posted by ATXboom

http://www.austintowers.net/Austin_Downtown/index.html

Welcome to Austin: The New Migration Boom
January 03, 2008 21:46 Filed in: Market Analysis

The more people that come to Austin, the stronger the downtown condo market. As Austin grows and expands, the value of central living only goes up. As one of the fastest growing cities in the country, this trend is one of the positive factors supporting long-term growth of the downtown population.

Today's news is good news for downtown residents and bad news for anyone that sits in Austin traffic: new statistics from the census bureau show a dramatic acceleration in migration into Travis county and the rest of the Austin metropolitan area. The latest statistics, covering the full year 2006 (Thanks Census Bureau for the quick turn around!), show that a net 9,405 migrated into Travis county in 2006. This tops the tech boom record of 8,575 set in 2000 and represents a strong turn-around from 2002, 2003, and 2004 when the county experienced a net outbound migration.

Here are the migration statistics from 2000 - 2006:

2000 | +8,575
2001 | +4,867
2002 | -11,402
2003 | -7,152
2004 | -1,787
2005 | +1,602
2006 | +9,405

In addition, total migration into central Texas from California more than doubled over the last two years. Californians represent a major portion of new Austin residents, many of whom come with large amounts of home equity. AustinTower's own survey and readership statistics show that Californians are the most active out-of-state shoppers for downtown Austin condos -- followed by residents of New York, Florida, and Illinois.

Excellent points in this article. More importantly is the notion that downtown Austin is attracting people to move to Austin. This concept of downtown as a destination resort is new and the engine of downtown's growth. A large number of downtown condo buyers are retirees or second home buyers that want to groove to the Austin lifestyle

[MichaelB]

Originally Posted by evergreen1

Unfortunately this building uses an exterior skin that may create problems. Plaster is notorious for absorbing water. 29 stories of water running down a plaster wall is asking for trouble.

Isn't 360 using plaster as well? Greg?

[evergreen1]

Originally Posted by MichaelB

Isn't 360 using plaster as well? Greg?

Ah isn't it mostly window wall..360 has built this system before

[red shoes]

nice!

[jsoto3]

Originally Posted by evergreen1

Unfortunately this building uses an exterior skin that may create problems. Plaster is notorious for absorbing water. 29 stories of water running down a plaster wall is asking for trouble.

Actually, it's drainable EIFS (synthetic stucco applied over foam insulation). And for the record, the potential problem with portland cement plaster (stucco) is not so much its ability to absorb water (I think it is less absorptive than brick), but that it's prone to cracking, which can allow water to penetrate the wall, if not properly designed (frequent control and expansion joints, etc.). Water penetration is a very complex issue and any wall type is susceptible to it if not properly designed and constructed. The key to keeping a wall "waterproof" is proper specification and installation of a moisture-resistant barrier and associated flashings behind the veneer finish, whatever it is. Most water intrusion occurs at the perimeter of windows.

[evergreen1]

Originally Posted by jsoto3

Actually, it's drainable EIFS (synthetic stucco applied over foam insulation). And for the record, the potential problem with portland cement plaster (stucco) is not so much its ability to absorb water (I think it is less absorptive than brick), but that it's prone to cracking, which can allow water to penetrate the wall, if not properly designed (frequent control and expansion joints, etc.). Water penetration is a very complex issue and any wall type is susceptible to it if not properly designed and constructed. The key to keeping a wall "waterproof" is proper specification and installation of a moisture-resistant barrier and associated flashings behind the veneer finish, whatever it is. Most water intrusion occurs at the perimeter of windows.

Thanks for clarification I have read that the newer EIFS that is drainable as opposed to the original Barrier Eifs is superior and designed to avoid the problems associated with synthetic plaster. And as the writer correctly points out proper installation is key to any exterior system working.

Here is article discussing this.. http://www.djc.com/news/const/cis.html?id=10059757

[crewer]

Originally Posted by ATXboom

http://www.austintowers.net/Austin_Downtown/index.html

Welcome to Austin: The New Migration Boom
January 03, 2008 21:46 Filed in: Market Analysis

The more people that come to Austin, the stronger the downtown condo market. As Austin grows and expands, the value of central living only goes up. As one of the fastest growing cities in the country, this trend is one of the positive factors supporting long-term growth of the downtown population. ...

I'm not sure I agree. Maybe it should be rephrased to, "The more people who come to Austin with a lot of money, strong credit ratings, high salaries, and an extreme desire to live in a high-rise in downtown, the stronger the downtown condo market."

Pricing sustainability plays a bigger part in maintaining the downtown housing demand. We're facing rough times nationally that will have an affect on housing. Time will tell as to how well Austin rides it out.

[crewer]

I've been in Austin this past week (damn, forgot how cedar fever affects me), and was given a tour of the new Long Center. For the most part, I was impressed with the actual theater. It's well designed and is going to serve the city well. I don't think you'll find a bad seat in the place, it's so well laid out.

That said, the public areas of the theater are not impressive. There's really no lobby to speak of, and unless audiences are trickling out onto the outside "terrace" during intermissions, people are going to be shoulder-to-shoulder in the "lobby".

I asked if there were future plans to move the glass wall in the front out further onto the terrace area, or if the terrace area would ever be incorporated as additional theater space, but I was informed that it can not happen. Structurally, the terrace floor is not designed to support the load of a structure.

[MichaelB]

another crane up in west campus this weekend. 21 Rio.

[DTAustin]

I just heard that 360 has all of their condos under contract! Now we will have to see how many of the condo's actually close. Since buyers had to put down at least 5%, I think most will be qualified. However, I've heard of people with a large down payment, but a low credit score, not able to obtain a mortgage in the current environment.

[MichaelB]

Originally Posted by DTAustin

I just heard that 360 has all of their condos under contract! Now we will have to see how many of the condo's actually close. Since buyers had to put down at least 5%, I think most will be qualified. However, I've heard of people with a large down payment, but a low credit score, not able to obtain a mortgage in the current environment.

I think they will be just fine. When Monarch went back to apts. the 360 office receiced alot of panic calls. The folks in the office tell me they could not even service half of them... so I bet (speculation, sorry) they have folks in the wings waiting on openings. Greg... do you know? Anyone seen Greg lately?

Speaking of the Monarch. Noticed they still have thier add in Dwell as a condo. Oooops, so much for long term advertising!

[AustinGuy]

360s investor cap is full at 25%, so we should see at least 100 of the units hit the rental market.

[KevinFromTexas]

A few shots from I-35 on Sunday of Legacy @ Town Lake.

I had the white balance set wrong, so they came out a bit dark.


You can see the silhouette through the trees.

[DTAustin]

Originally Posted by AustinGuy

360s investor cap is full at 25%, so we should see at least 100 of the units hit the rental market.

...Or the resale market. The HOA docs at 360 require a landlord to get a rental permit from the HOA before renting out a condo, and rentals are limited to 25% of the condos. I imagine this may be a pain because the HOA will be run by the developer for the first few months (at least until 75% of the condos are converted from a contract to a sale) and then the HOA board will be new and still trying to figure out how everything works. Hopefully it goes smoothly because there will be a lot of money on the line.

Also, Austin Tower's had a good analysis of the economics of the downtown condo rental market. It doesn't look good for landlords because the current rental rates will not come anywhere near covering the costs to own the condo.

The link is here:
http://www.austintowers.net/Austin_Downtown/files/investing_in_downtown_austin_condos.html

[bigdogc]

so if you live at 360, do/can you run for a seat on the HOA board or what?

[DTAustin]

Originally Posted by bigdogc

so if you live at 360, do/can you run for a seat on the HOA board or what?

If you own a condo there, you can run for a seat on the board. I don't know what the residency requirements are. I'll have to check. Many times the board members are required to live on the premises, and not rent out their condos, or own them as second homes. Currently, there are only 3 board seats for the residential HOA, which is very low for a building with 430 condos. The board will have the opportunity to expand the number of seats once it is created.

P.S. Having sat on an HOA board for 6 years, I high recommend avoiding them at all costs. They will take more time than you ever wanted to give and drive you crazy.

[Kevinb]

Originally Posted by DTAustin

Also, Austin Tower's had a good analysis of the economics of the downtown condo rental market. It doesn't look good for landlords because the current rental rates will not come anywhere near covering the costs to own the condo.

The link is here:
http://www.austintowers.net/Austin_Downtown/files/investing_in_downtown_austin_condos.html

Ask ten different investors and you will get ten different number scenarios. The truth is no one knows exactly what they will rent for. Amli II is a pretty good comparison though. I went by Amli II today and the rents are a bit higher than Amli I, and they are 40% pre-leased. They have a an 1187 sqft 2/2 that is very similar in size to Paul's example from austintowers. The pricing on it is $2,385-$3,985/ month depending on floor (2-19). They also charge a non-refundable admin fee of $400, so add $33.33 per month to the above numbers. $400/sqft on the buying side of things would get you up pretty high in the 360 too! Either way, it should be interesting to watch everything play out!