Statistics Canada Reports II

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Yet when Trudeau was sat down by Gerry Butts and had the electoral reform ramifications explained to him he dropped the effort. The Liberal plan was an attempt to rig things by electoral reform to never allow the Conservatives to ever get close to a Majority. The price would have almost always been a Liberal/NDP coalition. The last ten years showed all of us the folly and silliness of that construct.

Climate change was shown to be a nice to have but Covid realigned peoples priorities and the inflationary policies of the Government have pushed Climate change off the top 5 priority list in Canada . Carney gets this and will use the next ten to fifteen years righting the Ship by extracting and protecting what is ours.

10-15 years is quite a stretch. Not many PMs manage to make it to 10 years and I see no evidence of a fundamental difference in this case. But if the wishful thinking brings you comfort, I'm happy for you.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I stand by my assertion.

Canada is best run from the centre, by pragmatic politicians capable of honest debate and reasonable compromise.

Extremists, ideologues and zealots need not apply.

For anyone with those priorities, the Trudeau government was a great fit since their most extreme policy was the carbon tax and EV rebates which were supported by the majority of people including most economists. And while every politician has ideals, in this case carbon reduction, they were pragmatic enough to build an oil project (TMX expansion) despite strong opposition from environmental groups.

People seem to form their conclusions on this stuff largely based on the political rhetoric they hear rather than the actual policies and spending. And don't get me wrong, rhetoric is important. It's just not nearly as important as the actual substance.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

10-15 years is quite a stretch. Not many PMs manage to make it to 10 years and I see no evidence of a fundamental difference in this case. But if the wishful thinking brings you comfort, I'm happy for you.

I agree 15 years IS quite a stretch but I will reiterate that Canada is retiring the last sixty years of social justice silliness and the American changes will compel whatever future Canadian government to continue Carneys policy choices. Gavin Newsom was asked last week by the CBC if a future Democratic government would reduce American tariffs.

Newsom said NO three times.

If that obvious friend of Canada is willing to hide behind the Trump trade changes then Canada has little choice but to get independent and rich ASAP.

Canadians really have no Idea how much the Feds are rapidly swinging their focus to Defence and Serious exploitations of our resources. You live in the Halifax area and the obvious Defence investments are just getting started . Investments that will severely curtail Government Climate mitigation policies.
We are abut to spend 2.6 Times what we used to spend on Defence and another 30 Billion PER YEAR on National Infrastructure such as roads, ports,
power systems and other big things. Climate will just become weather in the Canadian context and wow we all know how to handle that.

[Airboy]

I feel Carney has 10 years before we turn on him. If the economy continues to grow most will stand behind him. I Alberta he will continue to have greater support as long as Danni is in power.

Economically we have to see that his policies are changing the way we do business with the world. The last quarter GDP was a good sign , I just hope the next quarter still shows a positive growth even if modest.

Saw a report this weekend about Aluminum after Trump Said they are short the metal. Exports from Canada are down 18% and shock, European imports of our aluminum are up 18%.

Oil exports out of Vancouver are way up.

Those are just 2 I read about but it will be interesting to go through the GDP report and see how things have shifted away from the US market.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

I agree 15 years IS quite a stretch but I will reiterate that Canada is retiring the last sixty years of social justice silliness and the American changes will compel whatever future Canadian government to continue Carneys policy choices. Gavin Newsom was asked last week by the CBC if a future Democratic government would reduce American tariffs.

Newsom said NO three times.

If that obvious friend of Canada is willing to hide behind the Trump trade changes then Canada has little choice but to get independent and rich ASAP.

Canadians really have no Idea how much the Feds are rapidly swinging their focus to Defence and Serious exploitations of our resources. You live in the Halifax area and the obvious Defence investments are just getting started . Investments that will severely curtail Government Climate mitigation policies.
We are abut to spend 2.6 Times what we used to spend on Defence and another 30 Billion PER YEAR on National Infrastructure such as roads, ports,
power systems and other big things. Climate will just become weather in the Canadian context and wow we all know how to handle that.

Whether or not tariffs go away, they will no longer be new or novel and won't conjure a sense of crisis that demand attention or unity. It will become the new normal very quickly, especially without an orange troll to keep stirring the pot. Same with military expansion. So there's no reason to believe that either tariffs or military expansion will permanently change public priorities. If anything, the public may start to push back on enormous military spending increases once the sense of crisis lessens. Especially if (when) the rightward economic push starts to damage the country's social well-being through increased poverty and inequality causing people to want more spending in other areas. What works in a crisis does not tend to work for the longer term. There may even be totally new headlines or even new crises including stuff that we couldn't even think of now like the covid situation that require totally different policies.

You're assuming Carney's changes equate to a long term shift because you assume people will be so happy with the outcomes that they'll never want anything to change. But that's just because the changes match your political ideology rather than any empirical evidence that this will be the case.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Airboy

Saw a report this weekend about Aluminum after Trump Said they are short the metal. Exports from Canada are down 18% and shock, European imports of our aluminum are up 18%.

In following this story, I often hear points about either how Canada should pivot away from the USA or how Canada is bound to the USA by the tyranny of geography. It of course varies by industry. There are commodity exports that Canada can sell around the world if the transportation capacity is there, but the tightly-integrated continental auto-making supply chain can't be run overseas in the same way.

When you dig in there are a lot of problems:

- These industries and impacts are disparate by province, so it often feels like the feds are picking winners and losers. Every region is significant to add to trade options and resilience, but some have historically been ignored while others disproportionately influenced the trade agenda.
- The debate around sunsetting fossil fuel industries has been completely poisoned including even at the PM level in Canada. It's not clear we can have an honest and transparent debate about it, although the JT/Carney swap made this more possible.
- We have years of bean counter style spreadsheet-driven optimization of infrastructure that has given us limited and fragile domestic capacity for pipelines, refining, rail, ports, etc.
- Canada hasn't dealt with indigenous rights in a coherent legislative way and so regional infrastructure issues are often bound up in slow and unpredictable courts.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Airboy

I feel Carney has 10 years before we turn on him. If the economy continues to grow most will stand behind him. I Alberta he will continue to have greater support as long as Danni is in power.

Economically we have to see that his policies are changing the way we do business with the world. The last quarter GDP was a good sign , I just hope the next quarter still shows a positive growth even if modest.

Saw a report this weekend about Aluminum after Trump Said they are short the metal. Exports from Canada are down 18% and shock, European imports of our aluminum are up 18%.

Oil exports out of Vancouver are way up.

Those are just 2 I read about but it will be interesting to go through the GDP report and see how things have shifted away from the US market.

I hate to say this, but Carney will likely be replaced by either a far more militant person willing to lead us into battle, or a puppet Government imposed on us by America. I've come to believe climate change will hit the fan, and when it does, America will be headed for complete warfare, including civil, and against Canada.

We need to wake up and finally admit to ourselves that this is not about Trump. Trump is just a symptom of the sickness in America. The people knew what trump was after 2021, yet they still voted for him in even greater numbers.

We ahve to accept that Americans want to invade, and we need to build up our military ASAP. This is just going to get worse, and it's only a matter of time that the USA comes to invade us, and pillage our natural resources.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I hate to say this, but Carney will likely be replaced by either a far more militant person willing to lead us into battle, or a puppet Government imposed on us by America. I've come to believe climate change will hit the fan, and when it does, America will be headed for complete warfare, including civil, and against Canada.

We need to wake up and finally admit to ourselves that this is not about Trump. Trump is just a symptom of the sickness in America. The people knew what trump was after 2021, yet they still voted for him in even greater numbers.

We ahve to accept that Americans want to invade, and we need to build up our military ASAP. This is just going to get worse, and it's only a matter of time that the USA comes to invade us, and pillage our natural resources.

I agree 100% that Trump is as much a symptom as a problem. The America we know today has been this way for a while and was simmering away waiting for someone like Trump.

That said, I don't see this turning into a Mad Max situation any time soon. It could also go the other way. The democrats will likely take the house, which will hamper his power somewhat. They have a shot at taking the senate, which would hamper him even more. 2028 will be an important year, if democrats get a good candidate I think they'll win fairly easily.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

2028 will be an important year, if democrats get a good candidate I think they'll win fairly easily.

Who is that though?

If they had a parliamentary system, that person would liekly already be Leader of the Opposition, getting out there and arguing against Trump / for change and proving themselves with a shadow cabinet.

I'll admit I don't really know how the American system works in this aspect, but don't they not pick a candidate till year-of?

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by jonny24

Who is that though?

If they had a parliamentary system, that person would liekly already be Leader of the Opposition, getting out there and arguing against Trump / for change and proving themselves with a shadow cabinet.

I'll admit I don't really know how the American system works in this aspect, but don't they not pick a candidate till year-of?

Best of the bunch would be Buttigieg, imo, although there's the issue of electiability. Maybe one of the Democratic governors?

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Best of the bunch would be Buttigieg, imo, although there's the issue of electiability. Maybe one of the Democratic governors?

Buttigieg is such a Canadian type choice. The American facts however will blame the Baltimore Bridge disaster on him. All the more so since the Reconstruction project provides daily visuals.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

That said, I don't see this turning into a Mad Max situation any time soon. It could also go the other way. The democrats will likely take the house, which will hamper his power somewhat. They have a shot at taking the senate, which would hamper him even more. 2028 will be an important year, if democrats get a good candidate I think they'll win fairly easily.

I think internal violence in the US is much more likely if the democrats win this fall and especially if they take the presidency. I believe Jan 6 was nothing compared to what may happen.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by jonny24

Who is that though?

If they had a parliamentary system, that person would likely already be Leader of the Opposition, getting out there and arguing against Trump / for change and proving themselves with a shadow cabinet.

I'll admit I don't really know how the American system works in this aspect, but don't they not pick a candidate till year-of?

Personally I'd like to see Jon Ossoff take a run at it. Out of all the possible Dem candidates he polls the best with republicans and independents, and by a substantial margin. The Dems as a whole have their own issues, and even though Trump's approval ratings are in the toilet, the democratic party isn't doing much better, with most approvals in the mid 40's.

Correct, candidates normally don't come out of the woodwork until the primaries, but often some will flirt with the idea to see what kind of support they have. Ossoff has said he isn't interested in running for president, but I'll wait and see on that. He's running for for Senate reelection, so he's definitely not going to mention a presidential run. Let's see when the election gets closer.

[Chocolite]

The debate could go either way. The Liberals were trailing heavily in the polls, and it really only changed when Carney came in and Trump started his BS.
If Carney didn't enter the picture I believe the Liberals would have lost and it would feel like people were shifting again. I don't Canada as a country every fully shifts ideologically into conservative territory, but they move the needle every so often, mostly as a kind of protest for change. I believe it was about to happen again before Carney entered the picture.
Even from my own personal experience, I was considering voting for PP, but then Carney came along.

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Not so sure of that one. The Liberal party has spent far more time in power federally both overall and in the last century than conservative parties prompting some to even refer to them as the natural governing party. And with Carney being so new to politics with basically no political track record, people didn't actually know what they were getting in terms of ideology. There were some minor hints like when he said he'd push to make Canada a superpower in both green and conventional energy which signalled a shift away from prioritizing environmental concerns. But I suspect most people realize that campaign rhetoric doesn't always equate to post-election outcomes.

Also, much of the Liberal surge post-Carney came from the NDP whose voters just wanted to avoid what looked like an inevitable CPC victory. That was support for the Liberal party (as a compromise) rather than a desire for a more conservative candidate. Meanwhile the CPC support remained strong rather than completely collapsing. So much so that they even managed to prevent an LPC majority (for awhile). So it wasn't like a big portion of conservative-leaning voters voted for Carney to support a more moderate conservative candidate. They were all in on PP.

[AuxTown]

AOC is the only one who can save the US. She's the best of the bunch. Unfortunately, we will never see a hispanic woman president :-(

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Chocolite

The debate could go either way. The Liberals were trailing heavily in the polls, and it really only changed when Carney came in and Trump started his BS.
If Carney didn't enter the picture I believe the Liberals would have lost and it would feel like people were shifting again. I don't Canada as a country every fully shifts ideologically into conservative territory, but they move the needle every so often, mostly as a kind of protest for change. I believe it was about to happen again before Carney entered the picture.
Even from my own personal experience, I was considering voting for PP, but then Carney came along.

Strong centrist candidates win elections in Canada. Trudeau lost the room with his wild swing toward social justice activism and identity politics. This drove many centrists (including yours truly) batty, even to the point of considering voting for PP (if JT had still been leader of the Liberal Party). PP would have been the least worse choice.

Both red tories and blue liberals can identify with Carney. This is at least 60% of Canadians. With Carney as Liberal leader, PP does not have a chance. Carney will give some breathing space to the NDP however, but not a lot under Avi Lewis. If Wab Kinew ever makes the leap to federal politics, he would become a formidable left wing opponent.

I see the Conservatives fracturing again. The right wing reformacons will never give up this convictions and will take their marbles and decamp to form another western protest party. A rump eastern Progressive Conservative Party unfortunately will have little space to flourish as long as a centrist like Carney leads the Liberal Party.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by AuxTown

AOC is the only one who can save the US. She's the best of the bunch. Unfortunately, we will never see a hispanic woman president :-(

Buttigieg would be a better choice, but, he would drive the MAGAts and Christian fundamentalists into a mouth frothing rage.

Newsom might be the compromise candidate. His comment regarding tariffs is probably related to the fact the US needs the money. Trump has gutted the income tax system, and they have to be able to fund the federal government somehow. Even if income tax reform was placed on the agenda after the election, it would take several years to enact the changes, and the tariffs will be necessary in the short term.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Chocolite

The debate could go either way. The Liberals were trailing heavily in the polls, and it really only changed when Carney came in and Trump started his BS.
If Carney didn't enter the picture I believe the Liberals would have lost and it would feel like people were shifting again. I don't Canada as a country every fully shifts ideologically into conservative territory, but they move the needle every so often, mostly as a kind of protest for change. I believe it was about to happen again before Carney entered the picture.
Even from my own personal experience, I was considering voting for PP, but then Carney came along.

Believe it or not, the CPC lead began to plummet at the end of January, 6 weeks before Carney took over the party. I vividly remember following the polls, considering the CPC was ahead by 27 points, when Trudeau announced he was stepping down in the first week of January. Then something strange happened.

The CPC lead began to shrink. Then at the beginning of February, Justin Trudeau arguably made his most impassioned and greatest speech as PM, announcing that Canadians would not back down, and fight for our soverignty, and then encouraged us to buy Canadian product, while boycotting USA merchandise. It went over brilliantly.

I was following the polling daily, as I had never seen anything like it. By the end of February, the Liberals had cut the lead to 5 points. When Trudeau handed the leadership off to Carney, the Liberals were in a slight lead. Ultimately the lead peaked in early April, before the CPC gained a little ground in the final 2 weeks, to make it close.

It's very interesting if one looks at Trudeau's final approval ratings. They went from a 22% approval rating to a 47% approval rating at the end of his term. I actually think that if Trudeau had outright announced in February that he was staying on as leader, he would have won the election, due to the incredible momentum for the Liberals since early February.

Ultimately, I am glad Carney is our PM, as even though he lacks the passion and charisma of Trudeau, he is far better at international affairs, and establishing trade with the global community. Carney is also now the most popular leader in the World, much to the dismay of trump and the Americans.

It's like the World is viewing the situation as a David vs Goliath battle, and are clearly behind us.

[Taeolas]

The Felon was the biggest unifying force Canada has seen in generations.

And JT was a great foil against him. That's part of the reason why the CPC lead started falling in January; now that Justin had a proper foe, he began to shine again.

That said, I doubt it would have been enough to save the Liberals if he had stayed. But I do remember a lot of comments around that time how Justin's speeches were some of the most impassioned and impactful speeches from him that we've seen in years and they were starting to resonate. With JT in charge, PP would probably have been held back to a weak minority at best.

Carney coming in and turning the boat around while riding the wave of nationalism was the kiss of death to PP's chances.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I hate to say this, but Carney will likely be replaced by either a far more militant person willing to lead us into battle, or a puppet Government imposed on us by America. I've come to believe climate change will hit the fan, and when it does, America will be headed for complete warfare, including civil, and against Canada.

We need to wake up and finally admit to ourselves that this is not about Trump. Trump is just a symptom of the sickness in America. The people knew what trump was after 2021, yet they still voted for him in even greater numbers.

We ahve to accept that Americans want to invade, and we need to build up our military ASAP. This is just going to get worse, and it's only a matter of time that the USA comes to invade us, and pillage our natural resources.

I don’t think Americans want to invade in any significant numbers. Trump ran on a largely isolationist platform, and his turn to militarism has annoyed a lot of his supporters and contributed to the Republicans’ dire polls.