Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW)

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

AC888/889 this week, back to all 333s

Monday: AC889 - full Y, 15/31 J, 17/24 PY; AC888 full Y, 27/31 J, 21/24 PY
Wednesday: AC889 - full Y, 19/31 J, 19/24 PY; AC888 16/31 J, 21/24 PY
Thursday: AC889 n/a; AC888 19/31 J, 20/24 PY
Saturday: AC889 completely full; AC888 full Y, 21/31 J, 16/24 PY

Not too shabby for an airport considered by some to have no demand for wide body TATL service. A little soft on the J at times but considering this is catering to almost all O&D....
Can't wait to see what PD/TS are planning for S27.

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 85

Today's cancellation count (so far): 4, including AC 7867 to YTZ for the 3rd or 4th time this week.

AF 327 on gate 17, AC 345 on 28 and AC 888 on 15B

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

AC888/889 this week, back to all 333s

Monday: AC889 - full Y, 15/31 J, 17/24 PY; AC888 full Y, 27/31 J, 21/24 PY
Wednesday: AC889 - full Y, 19/31 J, 19/24 PY; AC888 16/31 J, 21/24 PY
Thursday: AC889 n/a; AC888 19/31 J, 20/24 PY
Saturday: AC889 completely full; AC888 full Y, 21/31 J, 16/24 PY

Peak summer, and the front of the planes are still over 30% open. That’s where AC makes its money. Not economy.

Explains why the route will go to an XLR eventually.

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Not too shabby for an airport considered by some to have no demand for wide body TATL service. A little soft on the J at times but considering this is catering to almost all O&D....
Can't wait to see what PD/TS are planning for S27.

Not the best numbers, to be quite honest. Last 2 weeks of July and the first 2 weeks of August are as good as it’s going to get in terms of demand to Europe. If you can’t fill J and PY (with paying passengers, not free upgrades) during that time, it’s not good.

Now granted, airline revenue management systems use dynamic pricing to make sure some seats are kept open for last minute high yielding pax, but having 11 J seats open a day or two out, in what is peak summer, is not good.

J fully booked and 10-15 seats open in Y is much better to see than this.

At the very least, it goes to show that the A330 is too much capacity outside of peak summer, and it explains why the route will go XLR shortly.

The 763 truly was the right sized aircraft for YOW-LHR/FRA.

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 91

Today's cancellation count (so far): 4, including AC 7867 yet again

[YOWflier]

I finally decided to feed Roman's data into my AI assistant. I fed ~80 posts worth of data into it going back to early 2025. Note that my AI assistant is the premium subscription-based version of one of the most advanced AI models available today. Maybe, if I feel inclined and have more time, I'll go back even further.

Here's the outcome, which for me is more infinitely more credible than feelings and opinions.

Overall Performance & Loads

Premium cabins (especially J and PY) are consistently strong to very strong across the period. Economy is frequently reported as “full” or near-full when mentioned.

Business (J): Often 70–100%+ on both directions. Many flights show 20+/31 (or equivalent on 787s), with frequent full or near-full J (e.g., 27–31/31, 28–30/30, 19–20/20). Soft patches exist (occasional mid-teens or lower teens/31, and a few single-digit outliers such as 5/31 or 7/31), but these are minority cases, often on specific days or early in the season. Westbound (AC888) and eastbound (AC889) are both solid; directional imbalance is not extreme.
Premium Economy (PY): Very strong and frequently the strongest cabin relative to capacity. Common readings of 17–24/24, 18–21/21, or full. Rare soft days (low teens or occasional lower) still leave it looking healthy overall. Full PY is reported regularly.
Economy (Y): When noted, almost always “full” or high. Combined with premium strength, this points to high overall load factors.
Temporal pattern: Loads held up well through 2025 (including shoulder periods) into peak summer 2026. August 2026 observations (recent data) show continued strength on the A330 (full Y, high teens to mid-20s J, high teens–20s PY). 787 days also fill well relative to the smaller premium product. A few lighter mid-week or shoulder observations do not undercut the overall picture. One cancellation noted (Jul 2026, 789).

The route demonstrates resilient premium demand (government/diplomatic, business, connecting traffic via LHR, leisure/VFR to/from the National Capital Region) plus solid economy volume. It does not look like a marginal or struggling operation.

Viability

High likelihood of good commercial viability for a seasonal widebody service:

Consistent high premium fills support strong yields (J and PY are the profit engines on long-haul).
Full or near-full Y adds volume and contributes to overall RASM.
Four-weekly frequency is a practical level for YOW (smaller market than YYZ/YUL) while still offering useful schedule coverage and connections at LHR.
Continuity and growth from 2025 resumption into 2026 (with A330 becoming more regular) suggest Air Canada views the route positively. Occasional gauge changes and one cancellation do not indicate systemic problems.
Risks exist (seasonality, competition via connections at YYZ/YUL or other European gateways, economic sensitivity of premium traffic, fuel/cost pressure on older A330s), but the observed loads mitigate them. Year-round viability would depend on winter demand, which is not fully covered here; the data supports strong summer performance.

Aircraft Gauge Appropriateness

A330-300 (primary in later 2026 data): Generally well-matched. ~31J / 24PY capacity is frequently filled to high levels, indicating the gauge is appropriate rather than oversized. High Y density helps when economy demand is strong. The aircraft provides good range/payload for the sector and a solid three-cabin product. Occasional softer J days still leave the larger J cabin looking workable given the overall pattern.
787-8: Smaller premium product (~20J / 21PY) fills extremely well (often near-full or full). Useful for demand peaks or when A330 availability is constrained; the tighter cabin can support higher yields when sold out.
787-9: Intermediate size; also shows strong fills when used.
Overall: Mixing gauges is pragmatic. The A330 does not appear chronically under-filled in premium, and the 787s do not appear capacity-constrained in a way that suggests chronic spillage. For YOW–LHR volumes, the A330 is a sensible workhorse; 787s provide flexibility. A smaller narrowbody would likely leave too much premium demand unserved and reduce connection utility at LHR; a larger aircraft (e.g., 777) would risk softer loads and higher costs.

Additional Observations

Directionality is relatively balanced; both AC888 and AC889 show strong premium performance.
Day-of-week variation exists (some mid-week softer, weekends/peaks stronger), which is typical.
Early 2025 observations and shoulder periods still looked healthy relative to capacity.
Livery/operational notes (e.g., first A330 service, toothpaste livery) are incidental and do not affect the commercial picture.

Bottom line: The route is performing well, with robust premium (especially PY and high J fills) and solid economy demand supporting viability of the current seasonal widebody operation. A330 gauge is appropriate for observed loads; 787s work well as a complement. Continued monitoring of winter/shoulder performance and yield trends would refine the picture further, but the bulletin-board data paints a positive commercial story.

Method:

- Search this thread for AC888 or AC889 by user RomanR27
- Manually open ~80 posts and copy the posting date and corresponding data (verbatim)
- Paste into AI assistant
- Prompt: "Please analyze the following airline route performance data. It is from a bulletin board. The date of posting is provided for each data set. Please comment on the route's performance, likely viability, aircraft gauge appropriateness." (one prompt - no AI-priming, one response - pasted here)

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

The 763 truly was the right sized aircraft for YOW-LHR/FRA.

I do agree with this but given the number of pax still using the service is not bad. I think the 788 on a daily run would be better, too bad they have only 8 of those and probably busy doing other things. The J traveller isn't going to wait for a day YOW-LHR runs, they are going to connect in YUL or YYZ even on days where service does run but transferring in the other two would be better for timing. I highly doubt the reverse is true where YUL and YYZ originating pax are using the YOW run due to timing. So YOW-LHR-YOW continues to lose potential Ottawa originating pax. YOW doesn't have the luxury of a million connecting flights coming in to fill the LHR frame like the big two. Plus now TS is in the mix and Club is potentially taking AC's PY. The fact that AC's Y is still always full is surprising to me. Maybe even a potential upgauge to a 789 or 333 on Fridays-Mondays may be feasible.

[RomanR27]

I am a bit surprised that there's been a lot of a days with full Y cabins - I expected TS to siphon off some leisure pax. It's a bit concerning YOW-LGW still isn't loaded for next summer.

For comparison sake here is LHR-YOW for tomorrow, compared to LHR-YYZ/YUL.

AC889: full Y, 16/31 J, 15/24 PY

AC865 (YUL, 333): full Y, 17/32 J, 17/24 PY

AC853 (YYZ, 77W): 22/40 J, 20/24 PY
AC855 (YYZ, 77L): 30/40 J, 7/24 PY
AC857 (YYZ, 333): 23/31 J, 13/23 PY
AC859 (YYZ, 77W): 20/40 J, 17/24 PY

A sample size of one day so it can be taken with a grain of salt. But not like the flights to YUL and YYZ tomorrow will be going out full up front either.

[YOWflier]

^ inconvenient truths.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

I am a bit surprised that there's been a lot of a days with full Y cabins - I expected TS to siphon off some leisure pax. It's a bit concerning YOW-LGW still isn't loaded for next summer.

For comparison sake here is LHR-YOW for tomorrow, compared to LHR-YYZ/YUL.

AC889: full Y, 16/31 J, 15/24 PY

AC865 (YUL, 333): full Y, 17/32 J, 17/24 PY

AC853 (YYZ, 77W): 22/40 J, 20/24 PY
AC855 (YYZ, 77L): 30/40 J, 7/24 PY
AC857 (YYZ, 333): 23/31 J, 13/23 PY
AC859 (YYZ, 77W): 20/40 J, 17/24 PY

A sample size of one day so it can be taken with a grain of salt. But not like the flights to YUL and YYZ tomorrow will be going out full up front either.

1. YYZ and YUL J seat occupancy is better than YOW. Also YUL’s PY numbers and 2 of the 4 YYZ flights’ PY numbers are better than YOW’s. In both cases, it should be the other way around. See points 2-4 below.

2 YYZ/YUL have tens of thousands of seats and several dozen flights to Europe every single day. YOW only has a couple of flights and they have no competition on YOW-LHR. YYZ and YUL do.

So you don’t want to be matching YYZ/YUL. You want to be outperforming them, especially in peak summer. Or else, why is AC even bothering to send a widebody to YOW? They can just add more flights to newer destinations through YYZ/YUL.

3. YYZ/YUL are AC hubs. There will be hundreds of people a day that miss connections, change flights, etc. So chances are those LHR flights are going to go out full tomorrow. That’s less likely at YOW.

4. Seat occupancy is one thing. Fare price - and therefore yield - is another. Business class seats from YYZ and YUL to LHR are $2,000 more expensive tomorrow compared to YOW. That tells me even with direct competition on the routes, AC is confident they will be able to extract higher yield out of YUL/YYZ compared to YOW.

At the end of the day, the proof is in the pudding. If AC felt a widebody was warranted on YOW-LHR in winter, the route wouldn’t be switching to an XLR.

That’s the truth. Like I said. The numbers on 888/889 are ok. They could be better. Especially up front.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

It's a bit concerning YOW-LGW still isn't loaded for summer.

Don’t worry about that I would say. If the out of control prices are any indication, it’s going to come back. Maybe they are waiting to announce what’s happening in YOW for next summer.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Don’t worry about that I would say. If the out of control prices are any indication, it’s going to come back. Maybe they are waiting to announce what’s happening in YOW for next summer.

Could indeed be that they’re waiting to announce a YOW expansion before uploading the summer 2027 schedule. YOW-LGW in summer 2026 is being funded by 3 ex-YYZ-LGW slots as the latter in 2025 was 2x daily and is 11x weekly this summer. For summer 2027, YYZ-LGW is currently loaded at only 9x weekly. As such, maybe YOW-LGW will be increasing to 5x weekly. Currently nothing for YOW, including PD codeshare connecting itineraries via YYZ, are loaded past 30APR27. As I recall a couple of weeks ago when I’d looked, this was the case across TS’ entire route network, so they’re probably still uploading summer 2027.

Maybe TS will be part of PD’s August 11th announcement…unlikely of course.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

1. YYZ and YUL J seat occupancy is better than YOW. Also YUL’s PY numbers and 2 of the 4 YYZ flights’ PY numbers are better than YOW’s. In both cases, it should be the other way around. See points 2-4 below.

2 YYZ/YUL have tens of thousands of seats and several dozen flights to Europe every single day. YOW only has a couple of flights and they have no competition on YOW-LHR. YYZ and YUL do.

So you don’t want to be matching YYZ/YUL. You want to be outperforming them, especially in peak summer. Or else, why is AC even bothering to send a widebody to YOW? They can just add more flights to newer destinations through YYZ/YUL.

3. YYZ/YUL are AC hubs. There will be hundreds of people a day that miss connections, change flights, etc. So chances are those LHR flights are going to go out full tomorrow. That’s less likely at YOW.

4. Seat occupancy is one thing. Fare price - and therefore yield - is another. Business class seats from YYZ and YUL to LHR are $2,000 more expensive tomorrow compared to YOW. That tells me even with direct competition on the routes, AC is confident they will be able to extract higher yield out of YUL/YYZ compared to YOW.

At the end of the day, the proof is in the pudding. If AC felt a widebody was warranted on YOW-LHR in winter, the route wouldn’t be switching to an XLR.

That’s the truth. Like I said. The numbers on 888/889 are ok. They could be better. Especially up front.

The truth is we don't know what yields are like. The Toronto European flights are filled with very low yielding US passengers. They pay about what we do including the US flight. They wouldn't do that if demand for either flight was robust from Canada. J class is always a weakness for Ottawa. London is an economy flight for most government workers so particularly vulnerable. Air France is still getting some of the longer distance J flights for them.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Could indeed be that they’re waiting to announce a YOW expansion before uploading the summer 2027 schedule. YOW-LGW in summer 2026 is being funded by 3 ex-YYZ-LGW slots as the latter in 2025 was 2x daily and is 11x weekly this summer. For summer 2027, YYZ-LGW is currently loaded at only 9x weekly. As such, maybe YOW-LGW will be increasing to 5x weekly. Currently nothing for YOW, including PD codeshare connecting itineraries via YYZ, are loaded past 30APR27. As I recall a couple of weeks ago when I’d looked, this was the case across TS’ entire route network, so they’re probably still uploading summer 2027.

Maybe TS will be part of PD’s August 11th announcement…unlikely of course.

Very good observations. I think though anything related to TS will be its own announcement. I've personally been waiting all week for tomorrow's big announcement, I just hope it's something to actually be excited over instead of something no one really cares about. I hope it's not merch. My top guesses:

1) A massive route network announcement. They don't usually hype this up, they just drop it the day of, so it has to be a big substantial increase to make the week long hype worth it.
2) Order of the smaller E190 variant.
3) YXU first announcement with multiple destinations (to YOW/Sun destinations). But then again they did not do this for YHM.
4) Long shot but maybe plans to make 'little' YOW an actual fortress hub. Some Ottawa based social media pages have liked or commented on PD's media teasers making me think there is a chance this is centred around YOW.

[Dominion301]

If it weren’t for the cancellations, today could have both hit a post-March 2020 record and hit 100.

Today’s departure count: 96

Today's cancellation count (so far): 4

I see PD have a 5th YYZ today and a make up YLW. Can’t figure out the other one beyond the usual max 97 this summer. Is FLL typically on Mondays as there is one of those today.

[zzptichka]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

2 YYZ/YUL have tens of thousands of seats and several dozen flights to Europe every single day. YOW only has a couple of flights and they have no competition on YOW-LHR. YYZ and YUL do.

So you don’t want to be matching YYZ/YUL. You want to be outperforming them, especially in peak summer. Or else, why is AC even bothering to send a widebody to YOW? They can just add more flights to newer destinations through YYZ/YUL.

You are literally saying it right there. There is no direct competition at YOW, so they can set their own fares and get higher margins. If anything they would want to capture more of that.

[RomanR27]

The latest PD teasers features a bunch of people reaching into what looks like a chip bag, so I have a feeling whatever is announced is gonna be underwhelming to us avgeeks lol.

Originally Posted by Dominion301

If it weren’t for the cancellations, today could have both hit a post-March 2020 record and hit 100.

Today’s departure count: 96

Today's cancellation count (so far): 4

I see PD have a 5th YYZ today and a make up YLW. Can’t figure out the other one beyond the usual max 97 this summer. Is FLL typically on Mondays as there is one of those today.

There are wildfires in the Okanagan area so that explains the makeup flight - Saturdays turned back to YOW and yesterday was cancelled.

Mondays may be the high mark now - PD has been operating a fifth YOW-YYZ all summer (there is a fifth YYZ-YOW on Tuesdays). FLL has operated Mondays all summer, MCO resumed Monday service last week. With YYT going back to 11x weekly on days x256 this month, it's possible it maxes out at 99 departures on a normal August day.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

The latest PD teasers features a bunch of people reaching into what looks like a chip bag, so I have a feeling whatever is announced is gonna be underwhelming to us avgeeks lol.

Urg lol. I guess we'll see tomorrow.

[phil235]

Was at the airport to right and they had a red alert, weather-related I believe. All gates were full and landing planes were having to wait an hour to get a gate. Was surprised that could happen. Not sure how common that is, it couldn’t have been a good experience for arriving passengers. Are we close to a point where expansion is a real possibility?

[YOWflier]

The issue with red alert (thunderstorms/lightning in the vicinity) is that ramp workers have to take cover during this period. So planes can’t dock at or leave the gate.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by YOWflier

The issue with red alert (thunderstorms/lightning in the vicinity) is that ramp workers have to take cover during this period. So planes can’t dock at or leave the gate.

Yeah, makes sense. I was just surprised at how long it took to clear gates once the alert was lifted. An hour plus on the tarmac after landing seemed excessive, particularly where there didn't seem to be any diversions.