Immigrant population of cities around the world

[pip]

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[pip]

Originally Posted by nito

I think we have such limited recourse to measuring with that such estimates have very broad ranges. I’ve read previously that people have tried to get around that with trying to measure mobile connections, sewage output, etc… But still an inexact science.

I would hazard to guess that there is a high certainty that illegal immigration into the US would mostly come from Central and South America due to geographical accessibility. For the UK, it is likely to be beyond the European frontier, primarily people overstaying.

Yup.

According to AI 80% of illegal immigrants are from Central and South America.

The remaining 20% is this breakdown:

Asia: ~850,000 to 900,000 people (approx. 6%)
Europe, Canada, and Oceania: ~500,000 to 900,000 people (approx. 7%)
Africa: ~415,000 people (approx. 3%)
The Caribbean: ~575,000 people (approx. 4%)


The EU has under a million people living in the EU illegally. These demographic breakdowns and comparisons for illegal populations with such varying numbers makes it hard to compare.

[streetscaper]

Originally Posted by nito

I would hazard to guess that there is a high certainty that illegal immigration into the US would mostly come from Central and South America due to geographical accessibility. For the UK, it is likely to be beyond the European frontier, primarily people overstaying.

Originally Posted by pip

Yup.

According to AI 80% of illegal immigrants are from Central and South America.

The remaining 20% is this breakdown:

Asia: ~850,000 to 900,000 people (approx. 6%)
Europe, Canada, and Oceania: ~500,000 to 900,000 people (approx. 7%)
Africa: ~415,000 people (approx. 3%)
The Caribbean: ~575,000 people (approx. 4%)


The EU has under a million people living in the EU illegally. These demographic breakdowns and comparisons for illegal populations with such varying numbers makes it hard to compare.

I'd tend to agreed with this, but when specifically talking about NYC, I'd hazard to guess that the mix of illegal immigrants in NYC is likely quite different from the general US mix and less reliant on Central and South America.

[Docere]

Brazil was a huge immigration destination in the 19th and early 20th centuries. I believe Sao Paulo has more people of Italian ancestry of any city on earth (though Buenos Aires is probably close), and the largest populations of Japanese ancestry and Lebanese ancestry in the Western hemisphere.

[Docere]

Corrected list for Paris, not sure how many foreign born in total

Ile-de-France (2022)

20,000+ foreign born:

Algeria 350,939
Morocco 271,884
Portugal 217,280
Tunisia 144,884
Ivory Coast 78,105
Mali 75,435
China 75,175
Senegal 69,709
Turkey 69,281
Italy 58,787
DR Congo 54,091
Romania 53,305
Cameroon 51,111
Sri Lanka 46,621
Republic of the Congo 46,013
Spain 44,294
Haiti 37,548
Vietnam 36,073
India 33,770
Poland 33,235
Cambodia 29,132
Lebanon 26,183
Guinea 23,757
Serbia 23,643
Pakistan 22,954
Brazil 22,840
Madagascar 22,791
Russia 20,847
Germany 20,255

# 50000+: 14
# 20000+: 29

[Docere]

Nito, if Paris is included in the comparison maybe it's better to stick to a higher threshold. 5000 marks more than token representation, but 20000 is enough to fill a venue like Madison Square Garden. Here's the numbers for the "global cities" you compared, adding Los Angeles.

20000+ foreign born communities:

New York 48
London 44
Paris 29
Toronto 29
Los Angeles 24
Sydney 23

[Docere]

Originally Posted by muppet

Yep, but Home Counties alone (not even Southeast England) are 13.5% foreign born, or about an extra million. That's quite something, and we're only talking about communities as small as 5,000. I'm sure that would push many of the even smaller ones above that threshold.

But here's the problem.

First of all, where do I find detailed country of birth numbers without having to look through all the local authorities. Very little data is provided at the ceremonial county level. A lot of effort involved for an area where there's no consensus on what its definition is.

Second, I'm not using bloated CSAs or adding Hamilton to Toronto for example.

In these comparisons, I'm sticking to data that the national statistical agencies at geographic units they identify.

[muppet]

Yep, but that would be a you problem. It would still remain a list of metropolitan counts, though all but one of them is a city proper.

[Docere]

One metric that "benefits" the London/UK figures: I'm pretty sure foreign born numbers include UK citizens at birth born in other countries. Meanwhile in the Census Bureau excludes US citizens at birth, and the Canadian figures provided are immigrants + non-permanent residents and exclude "non-immigrants" who were born outside Canada.

[muppet]

^Even if that were the case I really don't think that would make a dent on how many 5K communities there are.

Rightio, the complete foreign-born population across the geographical Home Counties—fully reintegrating all independent unitary authorities (such as Slough, Reading, Windsor & Maidenhead, Bracknell Forest, Wokingham, West Berkshire, Thurrock, Southend, and Medway) and incorporating the remaining minor global nationalities—totals 1,118,591 residents.

India: 215,640
Pakistan: 105,420
Poland: 99,510
Romania: 69,215
Republic of Ireland: 44,520
South Africa: 39,410
Nigeria: 32,150
Germany: 24,190
Philippines: 21,580
Italy: 18,940
United States: 17,920
Nepal: 15,860
Zimbabwe: 11,420
Lithuania: 11,150
Portugal: 10,480

Ghana: 8,240
Bangladesh: 8,110
Brazil: 7,920
France: 7,650
China & Hong Kong: 7,490
Sri Lanka: 7,330
Bulgaria: 6,210
Canada: 6,180
Iran: 5,910
Australia: 5,540
Spain: 5,210
Hungary: 4,980
Jamaica: 4,890
Latvia: 4,520
Turkey: 4,110
Egypt: 3,840
Malaysia: 3,550
Slovakia: 3,420
Ukraine: 3,240
Thailand: 2,980
Kenya: 2,850
Vietnam: 2,740
Japan: 2,610
Uganda: 2,420
Afghanistan: 2,110
Somalia: 1,980
Trinidad & Tobago: 1,850
South Korea: 1,740
Colombia: 1,620
Greece: 1,490
Cyprus: 1,410
Singapore: 1,320
Mauritius: 1,180
New Zealand: 1,020

Iraq: 950
Syria: 890
Malta: 840
Albania / Kosovo: 780
Morocco: 710
Argentina: 640
Netherlands: 590
Sierra Leone: 550
Lebanon: 510
Chile: 480
Switzerland: 410
Peru: 390
Fiji: 340
Mexico: 280
Barbados: 240

Remaining Micro-Nationalities Combined: ~186,000 (The ONS groups the rest of the world's ~100+ smallest micro-nationalities, each with fewer than 200 residents, into regional blocks)

[Docere]

Top birthplace and percentage of foreign born population

Australia: Greater Melbourne India 12%
Australia: Greater Sydney China 13%
Canada: Montreal CMA France 8%
Canada: Toronto CMA India 15%
Canada: Vancouver CMA China 28%
UK: London India 9%
US: Boston MSA China 11%
US: Chicago MSA Mexico 35%
US: Dallas MSA Mexico 37%
US: Houston MSA Mexico 33%
US: Los Angeles MSA Mexico 34%
US: Miami MSA Cuba 30%
US: New York MSA Dominican Republic 11%
US: San Francisco MSA China 20%
US: Washington MSA El Salvador 13%

* China includes Hong Kong and Taiwan

[muppet]

So the aggregate of London and Home Counties come to 98 communities >5000, with another 279 communities below that (2021):

>5000:

������ Asia

India: 538,640
Pakistan: 231,420
Bangladesh: 147,110
China: 84,980
Sri Lanka: 75,330
Philippines: 73,580
Iran: 31,910
Afghanistan: 24,110
Iraq: 21,950
Nepal: 21,860
Malaysia: 21,550
Vietnam: 17,740
Japan: 14,610
South Korea: 13,740
Syria: 12,890
Lebanon: 11,510
Singapore: 11,320
Thailand: 10,980
Yemen: 8,320
Saudi Arabia: 8,110
Taiwan: 7,650
Israel: 7,490
Indonesia: 6,850
UAE: 6,420
Jordan: 6,240
Myanmar: 5,420
Uzbekistan: 5,310
Kuwait: 5,110


������ Europe

Poland: 248,510
Romania: 245,215
Italy: 148,940
Republic of Ireland: 141,520
Spain: 75,210
Germany: 70,190
Portugal: 62,480
France: 61,650
Lithuania: 52,150
Turkey: 46,110
Bulgaria: 34,210
Albania: 32,780
Hungary: 21,980
Greece: 21,490
Latvia: 19,520
Cyprus: 19,410
Netherlands: 18,590
Russia: 16,340
Slovakia: 14,420
Kosovo: 14,350
Sweden: 14,100
Moldova: 11,320
Ukraine: 11,240
Czech Republic: 9,850
Switzerland: 8,410
Belgium: 8,240
Denmark: 7,120
Malta: 6,840
Austria: 6,550
Croatia: 5,880
Finland: 5,450


������ Africa

Nigeria: 149,150
South Africa: 95,410
Somalia: 52,980
Ghana: 41,240
Kenya: 32,850
Egypt: 28,840
Zimbabwe: 23,420
Uganda: 19,420
Morocco: 18,710
Eritrea: 16,840
Ethiopia: 15,220
DR Congo: 14,190
Algeria: 14,120
Sierra Leone: 12,550
Sudan: 11,350
Tanzania: 11,220
Mauritius: 11,180
Angola: 9,840
Zambia: 7,850
Cameroon: 6,210
Malawi: 5,340
Tunisia: 5,150


������ The Americas & Oceania

United States: 68,920
Brazil: 63,707
Jamaica: 46,890
Colombia: 36,620
Australia: 35,540
Canada: 21,180
New Zealand: 11,020
Trinidad & Tobago: 10,850
Guyana: 9,440
Mexico: 8,280
Argentina: 7,640
Venezuela: 7,120
Peru: 6,390
Barbados: 6,240
Chile: 5,480


The 2026 estimates would be 109 communities over 5,000 (UK has since had its largest ever waves of immigration following the last census).

Ukraine has leaped to the 3rd largest European community at 154,000 from the war, Nigerians second largest surge at 225,000 following the skilled visas rulings in 2022, China has more than doubled to 233,000, possibly second or third largest Asian community following BNO citizenship for Hong Kong and return of Chinese students (the 2021 census was taken during a pandemic lockdown, when many foreign born had returned).

[Docere]

How did you end up with 11,000 fewer Brazilians than the London proper figures? Is this from 2021 census?

Source for post #1: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/country-of-birth-2021-tool-29yp1

[muppet]

well what should it be? I'll update it. Brazil now the second largest contingent from the Americas.

[muppet]

Originally Posted by Docere

Top birthplace and percentage of foreign born population

Australia: Greater Melbourne India 12%
Australia: Greater Sydney China 13%
Canada: Montreal CMA France 8%
Canada: Toronto CMA India 15%
Canada: Vancouver CMA China 28%
UK: London India 9%
US: Boston MSA China 11%
US: Chicago MSA Mexico 35%
US: Dallas MSA Mexico 37%
US: Los Angeles MSA Mexico 34%
US: Miami MSA Cuba 30%
US: New York MSA Dominican Republic 11%
US: San Francisco MSA China 20%
US: Washington MSA El Salvador 13%

* China includes Hong Kong and Taiwan

Did not realise how Mexican Chicago is. Or Dallas, though thinking about it of course it's Texas.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by streetscaper

I have a naive question. Do any of these figures, from any country, include illegal immigrant estimates?

Census figures always include everybody, irrespective of their legal status. The only criteria is: having lived in the country for more than 6 months.

The big difference between British and French figures is the British figures list the foreign-born population, whereas the French figures only list the immigrant population, thus comparing apples and oranges. The son of a British soldier stationed in Germany will be counted as a "foreign-born" from Germany, whereas the son of a French soldier stationed in Germany won't be counted as an immigrant. Not only that, but because of the way citizenship worked in the French colonies, many members of the elites had French citizenship, and therefore do not appear in the stats as immigrants (this concerns in particular many Vietnamese and Senegalese, who are not counted as immigrants in the French census, because they already had French citizenship in Vietnam and Senegal: in Senegal, 4 full-status communes, such as Dakar and St Louis, granted French citizenship automatically to all their residents; in Vietnam a lot of the Francophile elites had acquired French citizenship back in the days of French Indochina).

Until 1999, the French statistical office provided the country of birth of the population (so you could count the foreign-born in the British sense), but now they do it only for a select list of 5 or 6 countries. The French statistical office has a very Soviet way to operate, hiding or making very hard to access data that is standard in other countries.

Not only that, but they also do not publish the statistics for groups of immigrants that are very numerous in France, such as Laotians and Egyptians. This is due to a very stupid threshhold that they established in the early 2000s (they give data only for immigrant groups that had more than 30,000 people in France at the 1999 census, and these two were just under 30,000, but now above, and being concentrated in Paris, this removes two key groups from the statistics for Paris).

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by nito

It is incredulous that a developed nation statistical agency deliberately manipulates or projects opacity over data transparency. It would cast into doubt any verification of all other data published by INSEE. I suspect the true reason INSEE doesn’t report the numbers for some countries is likely because the numbers are de minimis.

See my previous post.

And yes, INSEE is infamous for hiding immigrant figures. They are very left-wing (as all human sciences are), so they are always extremely cautious in terms of publishing immigration figures... They will never publish detailed immigrant statistics at the census tract level for instance. Even at the commune (municipality) level they hide many variables, and many groups of immigrants. It's only at very large levels (regions, entire country), that they publish more detailed data, but even there, it's never going to be as detailed as what's published in Anglo-Saxon countries.

Also, INSEE is one of the few statistical offices in Europe that doesn't publish live data for immigration flows. The net migration of France is only known 4 years later (being inferred from the yearly census). Right now we know the net migration in 2022 (the highest since 1945, except for 1962 when 800,000 Europeans fled Algeria), but they haven't published the net migration after 2022 yet (it should be higher than 2022), making it impossible for political leaders to discuss immigration in a rational way. In other European countries, they have surveys of immigration, they count people at airports, etc, and they publish net migration figures 6 months after the fact, but INSEE does none of that.

Originally Posted by nito

Those territories are overseas departments of the French Republic. How can they be foreign born if they are born in French territory? Puerto Rico is a part of the US.

Including Puerto Rico in US stats, and Anguilla, Cayman Islands, etc in British stats, but not including Guadeloupe and Martinique in French stats is absurd in the extreme. Just as it is absurd not to count 20,000 Vietnamese immigrants in Paris just because they already had French citizenship in French Indochina and therefore are not legally-speaking immigrants.

This guy for instance, emperor of Vietnam who died in Paris in 1997, was not treated as an immigrant in the census by INSEE, because he already had French citizenship since birth in Vietnam.

Originally Posted by nito

I doubt it as trying to capture demographic data relies upon information from legal residents. Were illegal residents to willingly provide information they would put their illegal residence at risk.

Typical misconception that most people have. It has to be debunked every year.

In Anglo-Saxon countries as well as in France, there do not exist population registers. The population is counted solely at the census (or via yearly estimates). Everybody is counted. Personal information provided to the census agents is secret, and remains secret. People who refuse to submit information are counted in other ways (electricity consumption, neighbor surveys, etc).

Even in countries that have population registers (that is most of continental Europe, but not France), they have ways to count the illegal immigrants who do not appear in the population registers. The census population (or official population) published by their statistical offices is never the population that appears in the population registers.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Docere

Nito, if Paris is included in the comparison maybe it's better to stick to a higher threshold. 5000 marks more than token representation, but 20000 is enough to fill a venue like Madison Square Garden. Here's the numbers for the "global cities" you compared, adding Los Angeles.

20000+ foreign born communities:

New York 48
London 44
Paris 29
Toronto 29
Los Angeles 24
Sydney 23

The figure is at least 34 for Paris (you did not include Guadeloupe, Martinique, Réunion, Laos, and Egypt, all of which have more than 20,000 in Greater Paris), and possibly more (other countries that now have more than 20,000 people in Greater Paris but that INSEE doesn't specifically list, such as Syrians, Ukrainians, Béninois, Afghans, etc).

Just a reminder: the total of unlisted foreign-born in Greater Paris is enormous. In 2022 it was 897,303 people. That's: immigrants from countries not specifically listed by INSEE (for instance Laos, Egypt, Togo, Benin, Syria, Afghanistan, Ukraine, etc) + people born abroad but not legally-speaking immigrants.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Docere

Very little data is provided at the ceremonial county level. A lot of effort involved for an area where there's no consensus on what its definition is.

Second, I'm not using bloated CSAs or adding Hamilton to Toronto for example.

In these comparisons, I'm sticking to data that the national statistical agencies at geographic units they identify.

Consensus is the international harmonized definition of the FUAs.

This is the FUA of London:
Greater London (code: E12000007)
E06000033 Southend-on-Sea
E06000034 Thurrock
E07000066 Basildon
E07000068 Brentwood
E07000069 Castle Point
E07000070 Chelmsford
E07000072 Epping Forest
E07000073 Harlow
E07000075 Rochford
E07000077 Uttlesford
E07000095 Broxbourne
E07000098 Hertsmere
E07000102 Three Rivers
E07000103 Watford
E07000107 Dartford
E07000109 Gravesham
E07000111 Sevenoaks
E07000115 Tonbridge and Malling
E07000116 Tunbridge Wells
E07000207 Elmbridge
E07000208 Epsom and Ewell
E07000210 Mole Valley
E07000211 Reigate and Banstead
E07000213 Spelthorne
E07000215 Tandridge
E07000217 Woking
E07000240 St Albans
E07000241 Welwyn Hatfield
E07000242 East Hertfordshire
E07000005 Chiltern
E07000006 South Bucks

Caution: Chiltern and South Bucks have now disappeared, since the 4 districts of Buckinghamshire have been disbanded, and Buckinghamshire is now a unitary authority.

So either you use the entire Buckinghamshire (code: E06000060), but this includes areas that are not part of the London FUA, or if you are a perfectionist you use the MSOAs that made up Chiltern and South Bucks.

These MSOAs are:
E02003652 Buckinghamshire 001
E02003653 Buckinghamshire 002
E02003654 Buckinghamshire 003
E02003655 Buckinghamshire 004
E02003656 Buckinghamshire 005
E02003657 Buckinghamshire 006
E02003658 Buckinghamshire 007
E02003659 Buckinghamshire 009
E02003660 Buckinghamshire 008
E02003661 Buckinghamshire 010
E02003662 Buckinghamshire 012
E02003663 Buckinghamshire 011
E02003664 Buckinghamshire 013
E02003665 Buckinghamshire 014
E02003666 Buckinghamshire 015
E02003667 Buckinghamshire 016
E02003668 Buckinghamshire 018
E02003669 Buckinghamshire 017
E02003670 Buckinghamshire 019
E02003671 Buckinghamshire 020
E02003672 Buckinghamshire 021
E02003673 Buckinghamshire 022
E02003674 Buckinghamshire 023
E02003675 Buckinghamshire 024
E02003676 Buckinghamshire 029
E02003677 Buckinghamshire 027
E02003678 Buckinghamshire 028
E02003679 Buckinghamshire 030
E02003680 Buckinghamshire 031
E02003681 Buckinghamshire 032
E02003682 Buckinghamshire 034
E02003683 Buckinghamshire 035
E02003685 Buckinghamshire 047
E02003686 Buckinghamshire 050
E02003687 Buckinghamshire 054
E02006823 Buckinghamshire 039
E02003688 Buckinghamshire 053
E02003689 Buckinghamshire 058
E02003690 Buckinghamshire 059
E02003691 Buckinghamshire 063
E02003692 Buckinghamshire 064
E02003693 Buckinghamshire 065
E02003694 Buckinghamshire 066
E02003695 Buckinghamshire 067
E02003696 Buckinghamshire 026
E02003697 Buckinghamshire 025
E02003698 Buckinghamshire 033
E02003699 Buckinghamshire 037
E02003701 Buckinghamshire 038
E02003702 Buckinghamshire 040
E02003703 Buckinghamshire 041
E02003704 Buckinghamshire 045
E02003705 Buckinghamshire 042
E02003706 Buckinghamshire 043
E02003707 Buckinghamshire 044
E02003708 Buckinghamshire 046
E02003709 Buckinghamshire 048
E02003710 Buckinghamshire 049
E02003711 Buckinghamshire 051
E02003712 Buckinghamshire 052
E02003713 Buckinghamshire 055
E02003714 Buckinghamshire 056
E02003715 Buckinghamshire 057
E02003716 Buckinghamshire 060
E02003717 Buckinghamshire 062
E02003718 Buckinghamshire 061
E02006824 Buckinghamshire 036

I believe ONS have published foreign-born figures down to the MSOA level (INSEE would never do that).

Of course if Britain hadn't left the EU, you would instantly have the foreign-born figures for the London FUA in the Eurostat website, but since they left the EU, London FUA doesn't appear in the Eurostat website anymore (but ONS still calculate everything as if they were still part of Eurostat, so you only have to add up the bricks published by ONS).

[Docere]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

The figure is at least 34 for Paris (you did not include Guadeloupe, Martinique, Réunion, Laos, and Egypt, all of which have more than 20,000 in Greater Paris), and possibly more (other countries that now have more than 20,000 people in Greater Paris but that INSEE doesn't specifically list, such as Syrians, Ukrainians, Béninois, Afghans, etc).

Just a reminder: the total of unlisted foreign-born in Greater Paris is enormous. In 2022 it was 897,303 people. That's: immigrants from countries not specifically listed by INSEE (for instance Laos, Egypt, Togo, Benin, Syria, Afghanistan, Ukraine, etc) + people born abroad but not legally-speaking immigrants.

How many from Laos and Egypt should there be?

The others are overseas departments.