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Originally Posted by cdnguys
Some interesting numbers released this month for May from the New Brunswick Labour Force statistics:
Southeast Moncton region: May 2026 employment up +2,800; YOR down -(3,500). Unemployment rate 8.8% in May, up 2.7% YOY. Labour force (employed + unemployed) grew by +400 over last 12 months.
Southwest Saint John region: May 2026 employment up +2,100; YOR up +4,700. Unemployment rate 5.6% in May, down 1.7% YOR. Labour force grew by +3,300 over last 12 months
Central Fredericton region: May 2026 employment up +1,200; YOR down -(400). Unemployment rate 7% in May, YOR down 0.8%. Labour force grew by +300 over the last 12 months.
So Saint John region is doing really well it appears, paired with the most capital investments in all of the province this year. Hopefully the momentum will continue. There are so many new restaurants opening after a big boon of restaurant openings last year, which is a leading indicator of business confidence and employment/population growth. Most interesting for me is that the labour force is growing while the unemployment rate is falling, meaning there must be strong population growth. But who knows, Saint John numbers are notoriously hard to nail down and can fluctuate wildly.
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I am always a little skeptical of the CMA-level statistics for things like this because of the limited data available, but I have also noticed some positive signs.
Last year, we had all this dramatic news coverage about how Saint John was the most tariff-affected city in Canada, and while there have been some effects, little has changed. None of the news coverage got into the details that the vast, vast majority of our exports were petroleum products from the refinery, which Trump hasn't shown any interest in targeting.
The image below shows some of what you mentioned - the unemployment rate by CMA in the Atlantic Region (seasonally adjusted). Halifax seems very stable, as does NB as a whole. Moncton's recent uptick is a bit concerning but could just be noise. Saint John seems to have had a great start to the year.
For added perspective, Saint John's recent unemployment rate is lower than every CMA west of Quebec, except Thursday Bay and Victoria.
However, the participation rate in Saint John still sucks, barely scraping above 60% and under that during the winter months. This is largely thanks to the large numbers of retired folks in the city, which isn't something easily fixed. Skilled interprovincial and international immigration is the only cure for that one.