Statistics Canada Reports II

[trueviking]

GDP per capita is not a measure of prosperity. Its a better measure of how many rich people there are in a country.

Median wealth. Median income. Better.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by theman23

Not that it’s a model necessarily for us to follow, but to act as a point of reference the prosperity gap we had with Australia has completely flipped against our favour over the last 10 years and I don’t think anyone expects that gap to narrow (let alone revert) within the next 10, 20, or even 30 years. Those OECD forecasts that predicted we’d be bottom of the barrel in GDP per capita by 2060 are very much tracking. These aren’t month to month variations - none of us are going to see things get better within our life times with the way things are going.

There was a lot of "luxury belief" focus in the 2010s that unfortunately ran aground with covid and now the general negative geopolitical shift. Remember how many people said it was fine to run a deficit in 2019, which in retrospect now looks like an extremely good year?

It's hard for me to get away from simply viewing this outcome as Boomerism, as that generation has basically done fine the whole time with government policies totally tailored to them and they will check out before the bill is paid. It may not have been a nefarious plot but it can still be generationally inequitable.

I do also think JT set the tone somewhat and was a person who likely didn't have a lot of tough decisions around money in his life. This has the effect of causing people both to lose sight of the impact of spending and often makes them take on impractical social causes to assuage their guilt.

[Paper Boy]

Originally Posted by trueviking

GDP per capita is not a measure of prosperity. Its a better measure of how many rich people there are in a country.

Median wealth. Median income. Better.

It is also a measurement of which countries currencies are inflated ( Petrodollar makes almost every other currency devalued)

[MolsonExport]

GDP per capita: Elon Musk walks into a bar. Suddenly the average person in that bar is a billionaire.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

GDP per capita: Elon Musk walks into a bar. Suddenly the average person in that bar is a billionaire.

Soon to be the world's first Trillionaire

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Soon to be the world's first Trillionaire

Couldn't have happened to a more awful person.*

*well, Tronald Dump is an even more awful person, so I suppose that isn't entirely true.

[svlt]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Couldn't have happened to a more awful person.*

*well, Tronald Dump is an even more awful person, so I suppose that isn't entirely true.

yeah but DJT isn't remotely close to trillionaire status nor ever will be even in spite of all the grifting

[BlackDog204]

I heard a rumor that the provincial quarterly population estimates are coming out today.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I heard a rumor that the provincial quarterly population estimates are coming out today.

Ontario down 33k, Québec down 17k, BC down 12k, Alberta up 9k, Manitoba down 1.5k. Everyone else flat within 1k.

[KnoxfordGuy]

I hate this eara of our demographic history, necessary or not lol

[Innsertnamehere]

Ontario is down over 150,000 from peak in Q3 2025. Pretty crazy statistic, really. I imagine most of that population loss is coming from the GTA too..

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Ontario is down over 150,000 from peak in Q3 2025. Pretty crazy statistic, really. I imagine most of that population loss is coming from the GTA too..

The big cities which were magnets for non-permanent immigration are going to take the brunt of the losses.

And at least in Ontario and Quebec, where other parts of the province may still be growing slowly (Ottawa, Quebec City), Toronto and Montreal may be shrinking by more than the provincial population.

[Innsertnamehere]

Yes, I'd guess on a CMA level that Toronto is shouldering a disproportionate amount of it with other areas continuing (small) amounts of growth. I.E. Toronto is down 250,000 in the CMA, Ottawa is flat or maybe slightly down, and cities like Kitchener or Barrie or Brantford are up very small amounts.

Even within the Toronto CMA, I'd guess that Toronto, Brampton, and Mississauga are taking most of the losses.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

I hate this eara of our demographic history, necessary or not lol

New Brunswick could use some good growth years, Ontario had to cool down though. We have nearly 16.2 million people.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by Wigs

New Brunswick could use some good growth years, Ontario had to cool down though. We have nearly 16.2 million people.

While we certainly have the space, the past 5 years of unprecedented growth was tough to handle in the province. NB is really just following the national trend now and should take this time to build up residential capacity (to house who is already here at min), and do the infrastructure work needed to support the ballooned population.

NB is not all that unique after historic growth we are seeing stagnation. Now to make the most of this time.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

I hate this eara of our demographic history, necessary or not lol

Why?

[haljackey]

The time to grow is now- with most countries seeing lower and lower birth rates, they are going to do more to reduce their emigration rates.

For Canada, our window to attract mass immigration is closing, and faster than most of us think. We really shot ourselves in the foot not building enough cheap housing and infrastructure to support this growth.

Without enough immigration, along with a low birth rate, Canada won't be able to develop a lot of key areas / industries we need to succeed in the longer term. There will be less people paying taxes and more people to service with them due to aging demographics

We need to declare war on housing and build as much cheap / affordable residences as we can, then turn the immigration knob to max once we have sufficient supply. We can then attract whatever we can before countries tighten their belts to slow or even stop their emigration.

[Base]

The promised ramp up in housing construction isn't quite happening as expected but I do think Canada will return to a healthy level of immigration and we won't have an issue attracting folks if the value proposition for housing, job opportunities, and general quality of life are there.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Base

The promised ramp up in housing construction isn't quite happening as expected but I do think Canada will return to a healthy level of immigration and we won't have an issue attracting folks if the value proposition for housing, job opportunities, and general quality of life are there.

Honestly with the population shrinking, any housing completions (even no housing completions!) means the number of units per capita is increasing.

It actually makes the housing issue a lot easier, and is a big reason we have seen housing prices drop so much in the last 3 years. I'm surprised housing starts are as robust as they are, especially in Ontario where the population is in freefall. There is still a decent amount of rental starts in the GTA and the lowrise market is apparently in the early stages of revival.. that's all good news for longer term affordability, especially in the face of declining population.

Give it another couple years at this rate and I bet we see a lot of other related issues start to subside - i.e. homelessness, etc. A lot of supportive, affordable, and even market rental housing is getting built which will help stem the bleeding of new homelessness cases and provide spaces to transition people back into housing. I mean average rents in Toronto are down nearly $700 a month from the peak in 2023 inflation adjusted (21%), and still dropping, with a lot of supply coming online still!

I really do think that we are towards the bottom of the "pit" for the Canadian economy. As housing pressures subside we'll see the economy pick back up as well, and next year we should return back to closer to historic population growth rates.

[ericmacm]

Originally Posted by Base

The promised ramp up in housing construction isn't quite happening as expected but I do think Canada will return to a healthy level of immigration and we won't have an issue attracting folks if the value proposition for housing, job opportunities, and general quality of life are there.

Construction is always going to follow the general health of the economy (growth vs recession/stagnation) so it shouldn’t really be a surprise to see things slow down right now. That being said, a lot of the effort and changes from all levels of government being put into zoning reform, construction financing for dedicated rental units, streamlining/red tape reduction at the municipal level, building housing-enabling infrastructure, etc is going to allow everything to ramp up again significantly faster than before once market conditions improve.

The name of the game has been getting our systems ready so as many units as possible can get built during the next boom period. It should theoretically allow most cities across the country to better accommodate the change in population when immigration returns to positive growth as well.