The US Census Bureau thread

[iheartthed]

Chicago's role as the talk show capital definitely elevated its image in the 1990s and Oprah was the foundation of that.

[Crawford]

I'm sure it was a net positive, but I don't think the average person had any idea where a talk show was produced unless the show constantly integrated the city into the show. And I doubt Chicago ever had more talk shows than NY and LA.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I don't know if I buy this narrative. Chicago was "hot" in the 1990's due to Oprah? If I asked people on the street where the Oprah show was produced, I doubt a large share would answer Chicago. I think they would be at least as likely (or even more likely) to answer LA or NYC. And not sure how this translates to a city being prominent.

I think a show would only add value to a city brand if the show made the city part of the viewer experience. I don't think those 90's talk shows did that.

That was 30+ years ago and I doubt very many younger people knew even Oprah was a talk show host at one point.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by JManc

That was 30+ years ago.

The last broadcast of her show was actually 15 years ago in 2011.

And while it was a very popular talk show, her demographic was relatively narrow. If you weren't a middle aged woman between 1986 and 2011, it's quite likely that you never watched a single episode of her show.

[The North One]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

I'm confused, you rightfully and strongly pushback on the ignorant people who try to paint all of Detroit as nothing more than a giant rotting wasteland, yet you seem to have no issue at all doing the same exact thing to the southside of Chicago, a vast and varied urban American landscape of 118 sq. miles that is home to over 1,000,000 diverse people from all walks of life.

I never said the Southside was a wasteland, you're making things up. But it's more than fair to say that it's overall neglected and the city basically doesn't care because they have the Northside. Northside gets more investment from the city in every way. It's well known to everybody how Chicago operates.

[Steely Dan]

Speaking of making things up.........

You seem to have zero clue of how much is going on on the southside right now.

But my lunch break is almost over, gotta get back to the 3 new vacant lot infill 3-flats in bronzeville that I'm working on.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Speaking of making things up.........

You seem to have zero clue of how much is going on on the southside right now.

But my lunch break is almost over, gotta get back to the 3 new vacant lot infill 3-flats in bronzeville that I'm working on.

Yeah, I'm not a Chicago expert, but despite the preponderance of development being on the Northside, there's more development in the South Side of Chicago than in the average Rust Belt city.

There's probably 100,000+ people in the inner portions of South Side which are seeing redevelopment. Then another 40,000+ around Hyde Park.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

And while it was a very popular talk show, her demographic was relatively narrow. If you weren't a middle aged woman between 1986 and 2011, it's quite likely that you never watched a single episode of her show.

I would assume that almost any American over the age of 35 has seen at least a clip of an Oprah episode and would still recognize her on sight. She was also strongly associated with Chicago in the time she was on air. If you know who she was then you also likely knew her show was filmed in Chicago.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by eschaton

despite the preponderance of development being on the Northside.

And I wouldn't even bet on that.

By dollar value, the largest share of development in the city between the "sides" is probably in the central area.

Originally Posted by eschaton

There's probably 100,000+ people in the inner portions of South Side which are seeing redevelopment. Then another 40,000+ around Hyde Park.

Just going by where the preponderance of my infill work on the southside is, it's 80% along the south lakefront, from Douglas down to South Shore (FTR I also do plenty of westside infill in Humboldt and North Lawndale). That subregion of the southside is ~13 sq. miles with a 2020 population of 191,000 (it already has a decent density of nearly 15K ppsm with untold thousands of vacant lots still to infill). There is a constant stream of infill going on ALL across that part of town. It will be very interesting to see where it's at in 2030.

As I said earlier in the thread, the south lakefront is the most interesting part of neigborhood chicago for development right now.

Are other parts of the southside still struggling? Absolutely, but contrary to TNO's assertions, the city cares about them too (hello 8 trillion dollar RLE?). Like detroit, the southside of chicago is 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 huge - 118 sq. miles with a 2020 population of 1,030,000. It's gonna take some time. It not going to all be revitalized in one single decade.

But you gotta start somewhere, and that starting point on the south lakefront is on firm footing now.

Last month we got a commission to do 24 new 2-flats on an entirely vacant block over in New City about a half mile west of the Dan Ryan!!

Southside ain't got time to listen to naysayers; it's too busy building.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

By dollar value, the largest share of development in the city between the "sides" is probably in the central area.

Yeah, I probably wasn't taking into account that the "big blue blob" of the Northside is an area which experienced little blight and was mostly residential, hence the opportunities for new infill are limited (particularly if NIMBYs are empowered/the local alderman wants to use his pocket veto).

Nationwide, smaller-scale development tends to flow to formerly blighted areas (as they have scattered-site vacant lots). And larger-scale development tends to flow to formerly industrial/other underutilized zones.

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Just going by where the preponderance of my infill work on the southside is, it's 80% along the south lakefront, from Douglas down to South Shore (FTR I also do plenty of westside infill in Humboldt and North Lawndale). That subregion of the southside is ~13 sq. miles with a 2020 population of 191,000 (it already has a decent density of nearly 15K ppsm with untold thousands of vacant lots still to infill). There is a constant stream of infill going on ALL across that part of town. It will be very interesting to see where it's at in 2030.

That's interesting, since most of that area was still 80%-95% black in 2020. I know Bronzeville has had a bit of a "buppy" community for decades. Is it spillover from that?

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Last month we got a commission to do 24 new 2-flats on an entirely vacant block over in New City about a half mile west of the Dan Ryan!!

So nowhere near Canaryville then.

IIRC, that area is becoming an extension of Back of Yards, as South Side's Mexican population grows and the black population shrinks.

[Crawford]

I think Canaryville is increasingly Hispanic/Asian overflow from Bridgeport. If it's still WWC, it's on its last legs. That's a weird little enclave.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I think Canaryville is increasingly Hispanic/Asian overflow from Bridgeport. If it's still WWC, it's on its last legs. That's a weird little enclave.

It still was about 53% white as of the 2020 Census. Definitely more Latino overflow than Asian, which was pretty much limited to the northernmost section of the neighborhood.

There's still some majority-white subsections of Bridgeport as well. Plus the southern blocks of Armour Square. Basically a "White Sox belt."

Bridgeport also seems to be getting more Asian and less Hispanic. Hell, I could see McKinley Park being plurality Asian in another decade.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Yeah, I probably wasn't taking into account that the "big blue blob" of the Northside is an area which experienced little blight and was mostly residential, hence the opportunities for new infill are limited (particularly if NIMBYs are empowered/the local alderman wants to use his pocket veto).

We still do a fair bit of in-fill on the Northside too, but it's more often of the "tear down the underdeveloped 1 or 2 story retail building in a B district and put up a 5 or 6 story building" variety. Little old vacant lot R district in-fill 3-flats are much fewer and further in between up there, for obvious reasons.

Originally Posted by eschaton

That's interesting, since most of that area was still 80%-95% black in 2020. I know Bronzeville has had a bit of a "buppy" community for decades. Is it spillover from that?

The south lakeshore is super majority black, but it's not quite as uniformly black as that. Using CMAP's community area data, (which is currently pulled from 2023 ACS data), the 9 CA's bounded by the Stevenson to the north, the Dan Ryan/Skyway to the west, the Calumet river to the south, and the lake to the east, is an area of 16.5 sq. miles and home to 223,569 people, 72.8% of whom are NH-black.

The northern end of that area is now collectively referred to as "Greater Bronzeville" and it is ground zero for chicago's burgeoning Buppy community. I even remember reading an article several years ago talking about the ongoing gentrification there where one Buppy was quoted saying something to the effect "why can't we have a black lincoln park down here on the southside?".

Still a LONG way to go on that front, but the desire/intent is there for many.

Originally Posted by eschaton

So nowhere near Canaryville then.

No. I was mistaken, the site is much further west than I remembered, at the south end of New City, over by Sherman Park.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

The south lakeshore is super majority black, but it's not quite as uniformly black as that. Using CMAP's community area data, (which is currently pulled from 2023 ACS data), the 9 CA's bounded by the Stevenson to the north, the Dan Ryan/Skyway to the west, the Calumet river to the south, and the lake to the east, is an area of 16.5 sq. miles and home to 223,569 people, 72.8% of whom are NH-black.

I think I get the geography you're talking about here, but I think the average is a bit misleading because Hyde Park is smack dab in the middle of it, and mostly white/Asian.

I'm flipping back and forth between the 2010 and 2020 block maps on Justice Map, and I don't really see that big of a demographic shift in this area in general.

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

No. I was mistaken, the site is much further west than I remembered, at the south end of New City, over by Sherman Park.

Ahh, okay. That's right along the line of where the neighborhood is flipping from Black to Mexican.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I think I get the geography you're talking about here, but I think the average is a bit misleading because Hyde Park is smack dab in the middle of it, and mostly white/Asian.

I'm flipping back and forth between the 2010 and 2020 block maps on Justice Map, and I don't really see that big of a demographic shift in this area in general.



Ahh, okay. That's right along the line of where the neighborhood is flipping from Black to Mexican.

You're overstating Hyde Park's effect on the average. Whites and Asians are barely over 50% in just Hyde Park

Removing the 11,889 Whites and 4,581 Asians who are estimated to live in Hyde Park would only be about 8% of the population.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I think I get the geography you're talking about here, but I think the average is a bit misleading because Hyde Park is smack dab in the middle of it, and mostly white/Asian.

Well, that's just it.

UofC and Hyde Park ARE smack dab in the middle of the south lakefront.

I was merely trying to point out that the south lakefront is a wee bit more demographically varied than the popular misconception of it is.

But yes, it is a very predominately black area overall, which makes all of the private market urban development investment in the area all the more awesome to see. Usually, that means white people displacing black people in a lot of america, but that's not what's really going on in the south lakefront. It's more strictly a money thing, which changes the dynamic.

[Crawford]

The share of South Side nonblack might be rising bc the raw numbers of black residents is plummeting. You wouldn't need gentrification to see the nonblack numbers rise significantly.

Anyone know if there are demographic differences between South Side and West Side black neighborhoods? West Side always struck me as rougher and emptier, but not sure if that translates to more outmigration. It's certainly much smaller.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The share of South Side nonblack might be rising bc the raw numbers of black residents is plummeting. You wouldn't need gentrification to see the nonblack numbers rise significantly.

Well, we were specifically talking about the south lakefront, which saw a +5% population gain last decade, and has a +2.3% so far this decade as of 2023 ACS estimates, across all demographics, so that point isn't terribly relevant at this smaller scale.

But yes, the southside overall got "more diverse through subtraction" last decade with the loss of tens of thousands of black people.

In fact, the southside as a whole was like 52% black in 2020, and has now likely fallen below 50%.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

You're overstating Hyde Park's effect on the average. Whites and Asians are barely over 50% in just Hyde Park

Removing the 11,889 Whites and 4,581 Asians who are estimated to live in Hyde Park would only be about 8% of the population.

No, not really. My initial statement was that the area was (mostly) 80% to 95% black still, which I got by looking on Justice Map and clicking through and seeing the demographics of the blocks more removed from Hyde Park (and immediate spillover areas that are mixed, like Indian Village and southern portions of Kenwood).

Taking out that 8% or so from the 72.8% that was mentioned by Steely, it's in the right ballpark. Though I guess I also didn't take into account sections of Douglas have a growing Asian population.

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Well, that's just it.

UofC and Hyde Park ARE smack dab in the middle of the south lakefront.

I was merely trying to point out that the south lakefront is a wee bit more demographically varied than the popular misconception of it is.

But yes, it is a very predominately black area overall, which makes all of the private market urban development investment in the area all the more awesome to see. Usually, that means white people displacing black people in a lot of america, but that's not what's really going on in the south lakefront. It's more strictly a money thing, which changes the dynamic.

Right. I was just implying that what's going on there doesn't seem like it has much to do with Hyde Park, where the demographic fringes don't appear to be changing much - or if anything, may be getting a bit less white and more black (probably due to the same reasons as the rest of the region - black professionals moving in).

I find it super awesome that Chicago has a large enough black professional/urban population to warrant all this. Pittsburgh's black middle class is small, and still very suburban-minded, so it's hard to think of a single true middle-class black enclave in the city.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I find it super awesome that Chicago has a large enough black professional/urban population to warrant all this.

Keep in mind that it's very, VERY much still a work in progress.

There is still a lot of poverty mixed-in among all the new Buppie townhouses and flats.

Median HH incomes in all 9 CAs of the south lakefront are still below the overall city median of $75K, some radically so, like Washngton Park with a median HH income of only $28K!!!

Full-time minimum wage in Chicago is now $16.50/hour, which works out to $34K/year. How do you get a 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 neighborhood median HH income below full-time minimum wage? That's a whole shitload of unemployed and underemployed people.