The US Census Bureau thread

[Crawford]

The Carolinas are actually historically quite African American, but they seem to be the popular white person destination now, at least in the Eastern U.S. Ask a suburban wine mom about the glories of Charleston.

And it's kinda the new Florida for white retirees. Warmish and you can still easily drive back to Long Island to annoy your in-laws.

And anecdotal, but white people seem to love Denver and Portland in the Western U.S. Also those little outdoorsy places like Bozeman, Fort Collins, etc.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by craigs

What "correction" of Census Bureau tables are you referring to?

I remember that since the late 2000's there were this discussion about the way the US Census Bureau presented the form in a way Hispanics were induced to check "White". I've never bothered to check those forms by myself, but that was the story.

They corrected them for the 2020 Census and that's why the number of Hispanics checking 'White" collapsed from 60% to 20%.

[montréaliste]

Originally Posted by Yuri

I remember that since the late 2000's there were this discussion about the way the US Census Bureau presented the form in a way Hispanics were induced to check "White". I've never bothered to check those forms by myself, but that was the story.

They corrected them for the 2020 Census and that's why the number of Hispanics checking 'White" collapsed from 60% to 20%.

What box would they check now? Off-white?

Make Martha Stewart happy, I guess.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by montréaliste

What box would they check now? Off-white?

Make Martha Stewart happy, I guess.

I love Census data but I find boring as hell stuff regarding forms, methodology, metadata. Here from Wikipedia:

As of 2020, 62 million or 18.7% of residents of the United States of America identified as Hispanic or Latino of which 12.5 million or 20.3% self-identified as white alone[1] down from the 2019 American Community Survey when 38.3 million, or 65.5% of Latinos self-identified as white.

And here me asking Google IA to explain the change:

The sharp decline in the number of Hispanics self-identifying as "White alone" between 2010 and 2020 (from 53% to 20%) was largely driven by significant improvements in the U.S. Census Bureau's questionnaire design and data processing.

Historically, the "two-question" format led many Hispanics to select "White" because their preferred identity (e.g., Mexican, Puerto Rican) was treated only as an ethnicity, not a race, leaving them without a specific racial category that felt accurate.

Key Changes in the 2020 Census

The following factors detail how the Census Bureau revised its approach to more accurately capture Hispanic identity:
Expanded Write-in Examples: For the first time, the "White" and "Black or African American" race categories included write-in boxes with specific examples of origins (e.g., German, Lebanese, Egyptian for White; African American, Jamaican, Haitian for Black). This clarity helped respondents realize that "White" was intended for specific European, Middle Eastern, or North African origins, leading many Hispanics who do not share those origins to look elsewhere.
Enhanced Write-in Capacity: The Bureau increased the number of characters captured from write-in responses from 30 to 200. This allowed individuals to provide more detailed ancestral information, which the Bureau then used to more accurately code their racial identity.
Sophisticated Coding Rules: Improvements in how the Bureau coded these write-in responses meant that people who previously might have been "defaulted" to a single race were more often correctly identified as "Two or More Races". For instance, if a respondent checked "White" but wrote in a Latin American national origin, the Bureau's new algorithm could reclassify them as multiracial (e.g., White and "Some Other Race").
The Rise of "Some Other Race" (SOR): Because many Hispanics still do not see themselves in the standard OMB race categories, the number of Hispanics identifying as "Some Other Race" alone spiked by 41.7%. This group is now the second-largest racial category in the U.S. after White.

Future Standards (2024 and Beyond)

Recognizing that separate questions remain confusing, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) recently updated federal standards to require a combined race and ethnicity question for future surveys. This will allow "Hispanic or Latino" to be selected as a standalone category alongside "White," "Black," or "Asian," which research shows significantly reduces the number of people who feel forced to choose "White" or "Some Other Race".

He asked if I wanted to see the forms but I don't.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

it's interesting how the tables turn when we compare white population growth vs non-white population growth.

This is data from a report on Megapolitan Corridors put together by Penn.
https://penniur.upenn.edu/publications/megapolitan-america-revisited-demographic-trends-to-2040

Change in White Population, 2000-2020:
+928,793----Carolinas
+795,729----Florida Corridor(Tampa-Orlando)
+644,672----Front Range(Colorado)
+615,723----Central Texas(Austin-San Antonio)
+578,445----Sun Corridor(Phoenix)
+542,014----Wasatch Front(Utah)
+393,529----Atlanta
+379,699----Dallas-Ft Worth
+335,341----Willamette Valley
+328,282----Chesapeake(DC-Baltimore)
+309,721----Puget Sound
+250,8560---Houston
+225,973----Las Vegas
+200,817----Twin Cities
+189,559----Ohio Valley
-189,266----New England
-290,363----Michigan Corridor
-339,942----Florida Atlantic
-436,557----Chicago
-458,225----Sierra Pacific(SF-Sacramento)
-490,488----Steel Corridor
-946,298----Southern California
-1,559,770--New York-Philadelphia

Change in Non-White Population, 2000-2020:
+4,598,498--New York-Philadelphia
+3,906,172--Southern California
+2,651,612--Sierra Pacific(SF-Sacramento)
+2,310,681--Dallas-Ft Worth
+2,298,127--Houston
+2,078,728--Florida Corridor(Tampa-Orlando)
+2,025,213--Chesapeake(DC-Baltimore)
+1,854,555--Atlanta
+1,633,235--Florida Atlantic
+1,441,189--Carolina
+1,417,571--Central Texas(Austin-San Antonio)
+1,292,636--Sun Corridor(Phoenix)
+1,054,763--New England
+1,054,121--Chicago
+928,022----Puget Sound
+822,662----Las Vegas
+653,487----Front Range(Colorado)
+556,974----Twin Cities
+515,729----Ohio Valley
+458,405----Willamette Valley
+418,050----Michigan Corridor
+345,211----Wasatch Front(Utah)
+260,463----Steel Corridor

In the New York area, and perhaps the rest of the northeast and Midwest, the Asian population is most driving the growth in non-white population. In NYC, Asian was easily the fastest growing category since 2000, growing by almost 600k compared to Hispanic/Latino growth of 320k. Both the non-Hispanic white and Black populations declined in NYC since 2000.

[Gantz]

Originally Posted by montréaliste

What box would they check now? Off-white?

Make Martha Stewart happy, I guess.

I just got a Census questionnaire and they pretty much have a break down by country and/or ethnic group. I think a lot of Hispanics would just check off white American simply because they have been here for too long and don't really know their ancestry or they are very mixed, similar to white Americans who are just a mix of 8 different European ethnicities.

I actually gave up on it and threw it away. They were asking way too many questions and it simply would've taken too long for me to fill out. Unless you're retired, or some kind of census enthusiast, there is no way I am just going to spend an hour filling out pages and pages of random questions. They lost me after questions like - how long does it take your spouse to get to work? How is your house heated? How much you pay for it? Just pages of this bs.

[Austin55]

Do the City-level numbers drop tomorrow?

[airforceguy]

Detroit's population is up for the third year in a row.

Detroit's population grows for third straight year as these suburbs drop

Detroit's population grew by about 5,000 people in 2025, the third year of growth in a row for a city that had previously lost residents for nearly seven decades.

The continued increase in residents in Michigan's largest city came as population growth occurred among other major cities and outlying townships in the state's second and third most populous counties, according to newly released estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau data.

Detroit was home to an estimated 649,095 people last year, a 0.8% hike from the 644,035 residents in 2024 and 1.7% more than its population in 2020, according to the Census Bureau data released Thursday. It remained the 27th largest city in the U.S. by population.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/l...er-ring-suburbs-drop-census/90050806007/

[Yuri]

Now I’d be surprised if Detroit posts a population loss between 2020 and 2030 census.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Now I’d be surprised if Detroit posts a population loss between 2020 and 2030 census.

Let's hope youre right!

But you should never be surprised when the decennial counts deviate dramatically from the CB's annual estimates.



The CB hasn't been estimating Chicago in the correct direction since the fucking '80s.

Maybe they'll finally get it right this decade???????????

I will be breathing normally.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Let's hope youre right!

But you should never be surprised when the decennial counts deviate dramatically from the CB's annual estimates.



The CB hasn't been estimating Chicago in the correct direction since the fucking '80s.

Maybe they'll finally get it right this decade???????????

I will be breathing normally.

The infill happening in central Detroit is big. New businesses, tons of residential units. At some point those gains will offset losses.

Between 2010-2020 the Downtown-Midtown-New Center corridor was by far the fastest growing place in Detroit MSA, right there with Lyon/South Lyon in the far southwest corner of Oakland, but the development seems much more intense this decade.

[Steely Dan]

The place: Chicago

The time: 2010

The happening: exploding growth and new construction all over the central core of the city.

The CB estimate: +100,000 for the decade

The mood: "Hell yeah! We finally turned the rustbelt corner for good! A second decade in a row of solid population gain, woo-hoo!!"


And then................





I ain't ever gonna be surprised by any CB bullshit again.

That burn left a mark that will last until I meet my grave.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

The place: Chicago

The time: 2010

The happening: exploding growth and new construction all over the central core of the city.

The CB estimate: +100,000 for the decade

The mood: "Hell yeah! We finally turned the rustbelt corner for good! A second decade in a row of solid population gain, woo-hoo!!"


And then................





I ain't ever gonna be surprised by any CB bullshit again.

That burn left a mark that will last until I meet my grave.

But central Chicago did indeed got tons of new people and the MSA performed better than expected. If I'm not mistaken estimates were indicating a shrinking for the decade.

I guess the biggest black swan in this decade is definitely the immigration collapse. Natural growth will also be a thing but it's been factored. From +11 million (2010-2020) to 4.5 million (2020-2030).

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Yuri

If I'm not mistaken estimates were indicating a shrinking for the decade.

You're absolutely mistaken.

CB estimated growth of ~100K

Actual count showed a loss of ~200K

A complete swing and a miss.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

You're absolutely mistaken.

CB estimated growth of ~100K

Actual count showed a loss of ~200K

A complete swing and a miss.

I was talking about the MSA. It added 160k people and I'm almost certain that 2019 estimates showed a shrinking compared to the 2010 numbers.

[DCReid]

Largest Cities Faced Sharpest Declines in Population Growth...

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/vintage-2025-city-town-pop-estimates.html

[Crawford]

Yet again, the Census reports on their newest estimate, while not reporting on their revised estimate, rendering the numbers meaningless.

City X in Year 1 grows by 10k. Publicly reported.

Then City X Year 1 estimate is revised by -20k. Not publicly reported.

City X in Year 2 grows by 10k, using revised numbers as base. Publicly reported.

Makes no sense. City X has two consecutive years of growth, but Census estimate shows same population as two years ago.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

The infill happening in central Detroit is big. New businesses, tons of residential units. At some point those gains will offset losses.

Between 2010-2020 the Downtown-Midtown-New Center corridor was by far the fastest growing place in Detroit MSA, right there with Lyon/South Lyon in the far southwest corner of Oakland, but the development seems much more intense this decade.

I don't trust census estimates but I do think Detroit has probably stabilized. But the stabilization is fragile and we still have a few years to go for it to register on an actual census. In a city that shed hundreds of thousands of people per decade for almost a century, a mild or moderate recession could easily erase the 10,000 residents that Detroit is estimated to have gained since 2020.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I don't trust census estimates but I do think Detroit has probably stabilized. But the stabilization is fragile and we still have a few years to go for it to register on an actual census. In a city that shed hundreds of thousands of people per decade for almost a century, a mild or moderate recession could easily erase the 10,000 residents that Detroit is estimated to have gained since 2020.

I'd bet 10,000 for the whole decade at most. There will be people still leaving Detroit (probably in smaller numbers though) but I believe the influx of new people in this corridor will be big enough to offset.

I remember there were talks as early as the 2000's that Baltimore would have stopped shrinking, a time where urban living was still a new thing. That hasn't confirmed, Baltimore kept falling, even in the 2010's. Detroit will probably stop its declining before Baltimore which would be a big thing, as Baltimore is on the Northeast corridor, where even the rust beltish Philadelphia has been growing since the turn of the century.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

I'd bet 10,000 for the whole decade at most. There will be people still leaving Detroit (probably in smaller numbers though) but I believe the influx of new people in this corridor will be big enough to offset.

I remember there were talks as early as the 2000's that Baltimore would have stopped shrinking, a time where urban living was still a new thing. That hasn't confirmed, Baltimore kept falling, even in the 2010's. Detroit will probably stop its declining before Baltimore which would be a big thing, as Baltimore is on the Northeast corridor, where even the rust beltish Philadelphia has been growing since the turn of the century.

It was also thought that Detroit would stop declining by the 2000s. Baltimore actually lost more people in the 1990s than Detroit, even thought Detroit was/is the more populous city.

Around the 2000 census there was still some hope that Detroit had stopped the decline enough to keep the population above the 1-million mark. Detroit was also hoping to stay ahead of Dallas, which it had just barely done in the 1990 census. As we all know, Detroit (slightly) fell behind Dallas in the 2000 census, and twenty years later Dallas is more than twice the population of Detroit.