The US Census Bureau thread

[kittyhawk28]

Originally Posted by DFW

Wow!
Not only will DFW metro pass Chicago metro very soon, it’s making a run to catch up to LA metro in a few years.

Greater LA is at ~17.5 million vs DFW at ~8.5 million. Assuming LA just straight up doesn't grow anymore while DFW continues growing consistently at 1 million/decade for the next several decades, without any slowdown, it will take DFW 9 decades of continued growth to surpass LA. Of course, you know very well extrapolating that far out is meaningless.

[wanderer34]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

Austin has been adding 10K-15K more than San Antonio annually. I believe it's very possible by the 2040 census, which is only 15 years away, Austin could surpass San Antonio's population.

https://sanantonio.culturemap.com/news/city-life/population-growth-us-cities/

https://www.mysanantonio.com/lifestyle/article/san-antonio-ranking-philadelphia-22062570.php

https://www.instagram.com/p/DVqRoWwFL87/

According to some sources I found today, it claims that San Antonio (1,570,314; 2025 estimate) has officially surpassed Philadelphia (1,560,480; 2025 estimate) to pass it as the 6th largest city in the US. I can't really verify that on the US Census website, but I can believe what some of the sources are saying, considering that SA, and most of TX, has had robust growth, while Philadelphia has had negative growth since 2021.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by craigs

A few years? In what world?

"Texas. It's a whole other planet."

[Yuri]

People are kinda comparing San Antonio negatively to Austin, but to me it's the opposite: I find their growth incredibly impressive and resilient, specially for having competitors formidable competitors such as Austin, Houston and Dallas just round the corner.

They surpassed St. Louis population wise, one of the greatest US metropolises.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by kittyhawk28

Greater LA is at ~17.5 million vs DFW at ~8.5 million. Assuming LA just straight up doesn't grow anymore while DFW continues growing consistently at 1 million/decade for the next several decades, without any slowdown, it will take DFW 9 decades of continued growth to surpass LA. Of course, you know very well extrapolating that far out is meaningless.

And even Chicago was not a very easy task. Atlanta growth, for example, slowed a lot. If that happens with Dallas, and probably will, Chicago will have lots of years ahead.

We should not forget that US population growth has collapsed. It's a completely different environment compared to the 1990's and 2000's. Boom towns, specially big ones, will become much more rare.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by DFW

Not only will DFW metro pass Chicago metro very soon, it’s making a run to catch up to LA metro in a few years.

Extremely unlikely. By CSA, no chance, by MSA maybe a tiny chance. But it would take a couple generations and require expansion into Oklahoma.

Americans chase big homes for cheap prices in commuting distance to jobs. Once a metro reaches a certain size, it can't provide big homes for cheap near jobs. You already see the seedlings of a slowdown, with Dallas County losing population, and Houston growing faster.

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

DFW will never pass LA by any metric.

But DFW's CSA just hit the 9 million mark with this estimate release (9,051,994), which means it will likely pass the San Francisco-San Jose CSA (9,140,485) in next year's estimates.

[chris08876]

Once this anti-immigration movement dies off, hopefully it will lead to some gains in the older, historical metros.

Although as with estimates and revisions likely to follow, hopefully we will see some growth.

How the hell LA, and the NY area lost folks... I question it. You'd think it would reflect in housing vacancies. Considering these areas (well, LA and NY at least) have massive housing shortages yet inventory is at an all time low.

King and Queens county losing folks? I call bs! NY numbers have been getting the shaft from these census estimates for years. One year we are down 200k, than we gain it all back next year.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by IcedCowboyCoffee

DFW will never pass LA by any metric.

But DFW's CSA just hit the 9 million mark with this estimate release (9,051,994), which means it will likely pass the San Francisco-San Jose CSA (9,140,485) in next year's estimates.

As far as CSAs, for now yes, but the Bay Area's immediate 'commuter shed' is one of the largest in the country because it's not a megalopolis in the sense that there are multiple nodes of employment, no, The Bay Area is literally the cash cow that feeds all of NorCal, and you can see this as traffic starts around 4ish every workday out in the Central Valley, sad but true.

hundreds of thousands of people commute btwn these areas every day.

Greater NorCal CSAs and MSAs:
San Jose CSA 9,140,485
Sacramento CSA 2,766,663
Fresno CSA 1,357,710
Santa Rosa MSA 486,444
Salinas MSA 433,729
Total Bay Area Commuter Shed Pop(2025): 14,185,031

These major commutes are..Within the Bay Area CSA:
Oakland to Modesto 78 miles--through the Altamont Pass
San Francisco to Stockton--83 miles through the Altamont Pass
San Jose to Modesto--86 miles through the Altamont Pass
San Jose to Merced--115 miles through the Pacheco Pass
San Francisco to Merced--131 miles through the Altamont Pass

Not Within the Bay Area CSA:
San Francisco to Santa Rosa--55 miles via 101
San Jose to Salinas--59 miles through the Santa Cruz Mts
Oakland to Sacramento--81 miles via 80
San Francisco to Sacramento--87 miles via 80
San Jose to Sacramento--120 miles via 680 to 80
San Jose to Fresno--149 miles through the Pacheco Pass

Santa Rosa and Salinas are much closer to the Bay Area than Modesto and Merced but they are in the CSA while Santa Rosa and Salinas are not, yet.

So now, the Bay Area CSA has 9.1 million, but the greater area has over 14 million, I think Santa Rosa will return to the CSA soon, and Salinas maybe, I need to see what their commute to San Jose and Santa Cruz is, but that's 900,000 more right there btwn those 2, then if that high speed rail actually ever happens, then you will see a lot of commuting from Fresno to the Silicon Valley, and Sac is literally right there, so who knows?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by chris08876

How the hell LA, and the NY area lost folks... I question it.

The NY area gained folks, both by MSA and CSA, in every year since pandemic.

Actually, if you include the revised numbers from previous year, the NY MSA and CSA might have had some of the largest numeric growth in the U.S. over last two years. Something like a 300k+ gain by MSA and CSA.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by DFW

Wow!
Not only will DFW metro pass Chicago metro very soon, it’s making a run to catch up to LA metro in a few years.

LA has 18 million. If Dallas' metro goes all the way to Oklahoma, the Inland Empire counts, as much of it is connected to LA County's street grid.
No idea why Inland Empire isn't counted by everyone, as all it is is outer LA burbs. Every other damn city counts their outer suburbs, why is LA treated different for this?

The Inland Empire wouldnt exist without LA

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by kittyhawk28

Greater LA is at ~17.5 million vs DFW at ~8.5 million. Assuming LA just straight up doesn't grow anymore while DFW continues growing consistently at 1 million/decade for the next several decades, without any slowdown, it will take DFW 9 decades of continued growth to surpass LA. Of course, you know very well extrapolating that far out is meaningless.

Its gonna slow down quicker than these boosters think. The traffic alone will be nightmarish for most people. Unlike LA. which has various avenues and blvds to negate some traffic, those northern Texas burbs will be just on freeway stuff. GROSS. Good luck with that. Not only that, those boring burbs won't have much to offer, and those young people will flee very fast.

[dimondpark]

it's interesting how the tables turn when we compare white population growth vs non-white population growth.

This is data from a report on Megapolitan Corridors put together by Penn.
https://penniur.upenn.edu/publications/megapolitan-america-revisited-demographic-trends-to-2040

Change in White Population, 2000-2020:
+928,793----Carolinas
+795,729----Florida Corridor(Tampa-Orlando)
+644,672----Front Range(Colorado)
+615,723----Central Texas(Austin-San Antonio)
+578,445----Sun Corridor(Phoenix)
+542,014----Wasatch Front(Utah)
+393,529----Atlanta
+379,699----Dallas-Ft Worth
+335,341----Willamette Valley
+328,282----Chesapeake(DC-Baltimore)
+309,721----Puget Sound
+250,8560---Houston
+225,973----Las Vegas
+200,817----Twin Cities
+189,559----Ohio Valley
-189,266----New England
-290,363----Michigan Corridor
-339,942----Florida Atlantic
-436,557----Chicago
-458,225----Sierra Pacific(SF-Sacramento)
-490,488----Steel Corridor
-946,298----Southern California
-1,559,770--New York-Philadelphia

Change in Non-White Population, 2000-2020:
+4,598,498--New York-Philadelphia
+3,906,172--Southern California
+2,651,612--Sierra Pacific(SF-Sacramento)
+2,310,681--Dallas-Ft Worth
+2,298,127--Houston
+2,078,728--Florida Corridor(Tampa-Orlando)
+2,025,213--Chesapeake(DC-Baltimore)
+1,854,555--Atlanta
+1,633,235--Florida Atlantic
+1,441,189--Carolina
+1,417,571--Central Texas(Austin-San Antonio)
+1,292,636--Sun Corridor(Phoenix)
+1,054,763--New England
+1,054,121--Chicago
+928,022----Puget Sound
+822,662----Las Vegas
+653,487----Front Range(Colorado)
+556,974----Twin Cities
+515,729----Ohio Valley
+458,405----Willamette Valley
+418,050----Michigan Corridor
+345,211----Wasatch Front(Utah)
+260,463----Steel Corridor

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by Yuri

People are kinda comparing San Antonio negatively to Austin, but to me it's the opposite: I find their growth incredibly impressive and resilient, specially for having competitors formidable competitors such as Austin, Houston and Dallas just round the corner.

I've lived in San Antonio for 9 years and I'm not impressed. Probably because so much of the growth seems to be in the outer suburban areas and I never go to the outer suburban areas so I never see the growth.




https://www.synergos-tech.com/mkt_reports/STI_Market_Reports/M048/_book/population-forecast.html



Houston's inner-city growth has been much more impressive.




https://www.synergos-tech.com/mkt_reports/STI_Market_Reports/M042/_book/population-forecast.html

Granted, this observation of mine may be impacted to a great extent by the fact that I know Houston so much better than I know San Antonio.

[kittyhawk28]

Originally Posted by LA21st

LA has 18 million. If Dallas' metro goes all the way to Oklahoma, the Inland Empire counts, as much of it is connected to LA County's street grid.
No idea why Inland Empire isn't counted by everyone, as all it is is outer LA burbs. Every other damn city counts their outer suburbs, why is LA treated different for this?

The Inland Empire wouldnt exist without LA

San Bernardino, Riverside, and Ventura County already cross the 25% threshold to be in the LA MSA (around 35% of Ventura and SB county residents, and over 25% of Riverside County, commute to work in the LA MSA). As to why the Census Bureau doesnt combine them, someone apparently emailed them about it and they say its for historical reasons, but all the threshold the combine IE ans Ventura with LA/OC MSA have already been met

https://medium.com/@HemusK/data-analysis...part-of-greater-los-angeles-4d4716e9cfcb

[jayden]

Originally Posted by themaguffin

What, is there some contest? ??

Well, of course!

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by kittyhawk28

San Bernardino, Riverside, and Ventura County already cross the 25% threshold to be in the LA MSA (around 35% of Ventura and SB county residents, and over 25% of Riverside County, commute to work in the LA MSA). As to why the Census Bureau doesnt combine them, someone apparently emailed them about it and they say its for historical reasons, but all the threshold the combine IE ans Ventura with LA/OC MSA have already been met

https://medium.com/@HemusK/data-analysis...part-of-greater-los-angeles-4d4716e9cfcb

It's so weird and makes no sense.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

it's interesting how the tables turn when we compare white population growth vs non-white population growth.

This is data from a report on Megapolitan Corridors put together by Penn.
https://penniur.upenn.edu/publications/megapolitan-america-revisited-demographic-trends-to-2040

That's White or non-Hispanic White? In 2020, US Census Bureau corrected their tables and Hispanics checking "White" fell from 60% to 20%.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by Yuri

That's White or non-Hispanic White? In 2020, US Census Bureau corrected their tables and Hispanics checking "White" fell from 60% to 20%.

What "correction" of Census Bureau tables are you referring to?

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by Yuri

That's White or non-Hispanic White? In 2020, US Census Bureau corrected their tables and Hispanics checking "White" fell from 60% to 20%.

I'm fairly certain that in this case, "White" refers to Non-Hispanic Whites, if it were all whites, then the negative numbers would have been smaller.

We know(that aside from Utah(lol)), most of this growth isn't due to natural births because the US is now in negative replacement, which means that there is a mass white migration out of certain areas and into others, and I wish I would like to see socio-economic data on this group that is moving to see why?

Change in White Population, 2000-2020:
+928,793----Carolinas
+795,729----Florida Corridor(Tampa-Orlando)
+644,672----Front Range(Colorado)
+615,723----Central Texas(Austin-San Antonio)
+578,445----Sun Corridor(Phoenix)
+542,014----Wasatch Front(Utah)
+393,529----Atlanta
+379,699----Dallas-Ft Worth
+335,341----Willamette Valley
+328,282----Chesapeake(DC-Baltimore)
+309,721----Puget Sound
+250,8560---Houston
+225,973----Las Vegas

I think cost of living and taxes might be the main reasons, Idk, but for lots of people, I think many use those reasons as covers that disguise other reasons that prior to Donald Trump, were not openly talked about, like white nationalism, xenophobia, etc. I don't know, but these numbers are actually stunning and beckons to what the US is supposed to be about imho, room for everyone.

Change in Non-White Population, 2000-2020:
+4,598,498--New York-Philadelphia
+3,906,172--Southern California
+2,651,612--Sierra Pacific(SF-Sacramento)
+2,310,681--Dallas-Ft Worth
+2,298,127--Houston
+2,078,728--Florida Corridor(Tampa-Orlando)
+2,025,213--Chesapeake(DC-Baltimore)
+1,854,555--Atlanta
+1,633,235--Florida Atlantic
+1,441,189--Carolina
+1,417,571--Central Texas(Austin-San Antonio)
+1,292,636--Sun Corridor(Phoenix)
+1,054,763--New England
+1,054,121--Chicago

But I digress.