City Murder Rates

[Northern Light]

As at March 30th, Toronto is at 5 homicides for the year.

This compares to 8 at this time last year.

It annualizes to 21 homicides per year

Which is a rate of 0.65 per 100k population.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by streetscaper

I'm NOT talking about long term trends. Never was. Those are indeed national and multi-factorial, obviously weather can't explain those... I'm talking about JUST THE FIRST 2 MONTHS of this year in NEW YORK, and weather can indeed be an explanation for JUST 2 MONTHS

People say this literally every year during winter and yet somehow, the murder rate keeps dropping.

[streetscaper]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

People say this literally every year during winter and yet somehow, the murder rate keeps dropping.

Another user with reading comprehension problems?

There is indeed a moderate baseline decrease that we've been experiencing nationwide every year (represented by the moderate -12% for the first 2 months in LA, for example). In general, however, it doesn't decrease 40-60% in one year, especially for very large cities with already low rates. That's an anomaly that's separate from the longterm decrease trend.

I don't understand what's so hard to understand about any of this.

[Doady]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

As at March 30th, Toronto is at 5 homicides for the year.

This compares to 8 at this time last year.

It annualizes to 21 homicides per year

Which is a rate of 0.65 per 100k population.

Record low homicide rate, that's why Toronto needs to start putting police officers in every subway station.

[dimondpark]

Oakland homicides are down 39% (23 to 14) in the first quarter. This makes me very happy but weary because you just never know with the town...

[PhillyRising]

Philadelphia....the weather has been nice but it's still way down

As of today - 33 down 45% from this time last year.

2025 - 60
2024 - 82
2023 - 126
2022 - 142
2021 - 151
2020 - 116
2019 - 100
2018 - 81
2017 - 98
2016 - 79

Yet....you see hardly any news about this on the local TV stations....and people think crime is rampant everywhere in the city....

[LA21st]

I saw a stat today LA is down 11 murders from this time last year.

[ilcapo]

Originally Posted by PhillyRising

Philadelphia....the weather has been nice but it's still way down

As of today - 33 down 45% from this time last year.

2025 - 60
2024 - 82
2023 - 126
2022 - 142
2021 - 151
2020 - 116
2019 - 100
2018 - 81
2017 - 98
2016 - 79

Yet....you see hardly any news about this on the local TV stations....and people think crime is rampant everywhere in the city....

To be fair, a murder every 2 or 3 days in a city of 1,5 mil is considered crazy just about everywhere.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

As at March 30th, Toronto is at 5 homicides for the year.

Toronto still at 5 murders, almost four months into the year. I wonder if anyone has some plausible theories.

[Dale]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

As at March 30th, Toronto is at 5 homicides for the year.

This compares to 8 at this time last year.

It annualizes to 21 homicides per year

Which is a rate of 0.65 per 100k population.

Question: why do a majority of Torontonians perceive that crime is on the rise?

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by Dale

Question: why do a majority of Torontonians perceive that crime is on the rise?

I haven't heard that. Even the most uninformed citizen must be aware of the general dearth of crime here currently. Up to 6 murders now, so if it stays at this sleepy pace, which it won't, we will end the year with a total of 18.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by Dale

Question: why do a majority of Torontonians perceive that crime is on the rise?

As Gresto notes, I'm not at all sure that is the case.

That said, I would make a distinction. Homelessness is still fairly close to an all-time high in Toronto, in/around the 12,000-15,000 mark on any given night.

Of those, roughly 90% are sheltered, but 10% are not.

That is unprecedentedly high for Toronto, and is quite visible on transit at times, and in some parks.

That does throw (some) people into a frenzy.

Media in Canada is nowhere near as bad as parts of the U.S. with 'It bleeds, it leads', but it is an issue and does inflate perception of crime beyond reality.

Still, I don't think the perception of high risk to safety is widely held in Toronto.

I do think there is some dissatisfaction with adherence to rules/norms, and high levels of fare evasion on transit....

Along with the sense that addiction treatment for acutely affected persons, probably ought to be compulsory.....

[Gresto]

^I agree with all of that, Northern Light, including compulsory addiction treatment (as opposed to safe-injection sites). I would say homelessness has unequivocally never been higher, though encampments have decreased 70% from last year. I am of the "housing is a right" mindset.
As for crime, a couple of types that seem more frequent these days, though even they are an occasional occurrence, are home invasions and hit-and-runs. Recently there was a handful of home invasions in tony Lawrence Park, almost certainly all committed by the same group. But 6 murders in four months is next to none, and I don't understand the dramatic decrease, even from the all-time-low of last year.

[Notonfoodstamps]

Originally Posted by PhillyRising

Philadelphia....the weather has been nice but it's still way down

As of today - 33 down 45% from this time last year.

2025 - 60
2024 - 82
2023 - 126
2022 - 142
2021 - 151
2020 - 116
2019 - 100
2018 - 81
2017 - 98
2016 - 79

Yet....you see hardly any news about this on the local TV stations....and people think crime is rampant everywhere in the city....

Thats an easy one. Positive news doesn't sell.

[Dale]

Originally Posted by Gresto

I haven't heard that. Even the most uninformed citizen must be aware of the general dearth of crime here currently. Up to 6 murders now, so if it stays at this sleepy pace, which it won't, we will end the year with a total of 18.

That's microscopic and would be the envy of almost any other major city in the world. I suspect the anxiety I read about is pegged to a notable increase in home invasions, car thefts, etc.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by Dale

I suspect the anxiety I read about is pegged to a notable increase in home invasions, car thefts, etc.

Yeah, there are occasional flare-ups of crimes, and then you get the reporters going out and finding passersby to say some stupid variation of, "It's crazy. You can't even go outside anymore."
You're right about car thefts. There are crime rings that round up high-end SUVs to ship to Africa and Asia.

[mrnyc]

NYC reports fewest murders on record through April, violent crime declines in Bronx

By Brittany Kriegstein
Published May 4, 2026


Violent crime in New York City remained at historically low levels through April, with the Bronx recording some of the steepest declines, the NYPD said Monday.

Department leaders said they are hoping to build on that progress ahead of the summer, when crime typically spikes as more people gather outdoors.

Police data released Monday shows the city had its fewest murders on record for the first four months of the year. That broke a record for the same four months set in 2018, which is widely regarded as one of the city’s lowest crime years since tracking began.

Shooting victims and incidents are also down slightly so far since January of this year, the data shows. For April, gun violence fell by more than 18% compared to the same month last year.


more:
https://gothamist.com/news/nyc-reports-f...gh-april-violent-crime-declines-in-bronx

[PhillyRising]

The historic drop in murder in Philadelphia continues......still down 45% from last year.

As of May 22

2026 - 48
2025 - 88
2024 - 101
2023 - 161
2022 - 186
2021 - 201
2020 - 146
2019 - 127
2018 - 115
2017 - 118
2016 - 101
2015 - 88
2014 - 88
2013 - 93
2012 - 133

[streetscaper]

New York's murder rate is down 25.2% from last year. Really great, but not the drastic 41.7% decrease that we were seeing at the end of February, after one of the harshest Winters we've had in decades. I suspect this number will continue to go down a bit as we normalize after the anomalous Winter.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

As Gresto notes, I'm not at all sure that is the case.

That said, I would make a distinction. Homelessness is still fairly close to an all-time high in Toronto, in/around the 12,000-15,000 mark on any given night.

Of those, roughly 90% are sheltered, but 10% are not.

That is unprecedentedly high for Toronto, and is quite visible on transit at times, and in some parks.

That does throw (some) people into a frenzy.

Media in Canada is nowhere near as bad as parts of the U.S. with 'It bleeds, it leads', but it is an issue and does inflate perception of crime beyond reality.

Still, I don't think the perception of high risk to safety is widely held in Toronto.

I do think there is some dissatisfaction with adherence to rules/norms, and high levels of fare evasion on transit....

Along with the sense that addiction treatment for acutely affected persons, probably ought to be compulsory.....

I like the "if it bleeds, it leads" expression. There are times when I can look at local news online, and there's absolutely nothing but stories of violence and vehicle crashes. TV news is not much better.