City Murder Rates

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by fern

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgk86rr0vxyo

The population of England and Wales is just shy of 61Million with 499 Homicides.
If you live in the UK and watch the news you would be forgiven for believing that you live in a war zone

A rate of 0.8 homicides is for all intents and purposes (apologies to the victims) homicide free.

Great to see the rate so low.

[3rd&Brown]

Philly finished January with 10 homicides.

Last year during the same period we had 19. It appears to be the fewest number of homicides on record for the month in generations.

Prior Years
2025 (19)
2024 (25)
2023 (35)
2022 (44)
2021 (50)
2020 (38)
2019 (27)
2018 (21)
2017 (29)
2016 (19)

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Yuri

2025 homicide numbers for São Paulo released:

(...)

Cell phone theft/robbery (São Paulo's nightmare): 254,416 (a 6% decline) in the state and 161,666 in the city (an 1% decline)

(...)

Guys, according to a quick search I've made, London is around 90,000/year and New York at 80,000. It's incredibly high.

I'd say most of paulistanos would claim violence is the main issue on their lives and today violence pretty much means having the cell phone robbed. People are always 100% alert with the cell phone. Some even have two phones, one leaving home where they use the banks apps.

How do Londoners and New Yorkers react? Because here in São Paulo is the biggest collective trauma in a country where population is way more acclimated to urban violence.

[Gresto]

Toronto has had 3 homicides YTD, one fewer than at this time last year.

[3rd&Brown]

Philly finished February with 15 homicides. Given it ended January with 10 means there were 5 homicides in Philadelphia in the month of February.

That has to be an all time low. If not, it's definitely a multi-decade low.

[mrnyc]

nyc murders —
as of feb 22, 2026

2026 = 26
2025 = 48
%chg = -41.7%

everything else is also down too
except rape slightly up

so much for mayhem under mamdani —

[streetscaper]

The harshest Winter in decades prob has something to do with that (as we know there is a definite correlation between temperature and the incidence of criminality). Let's hope we still maintain some degree of reduction as we head into warmer months

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by streetscaper

The harshest Winter in decades prob has something to do with that (as we know there is a definite correlation between temperature and the incidence of criminality). Let's hope we still maintain some degree of reduction as we head into warmer months

yep — and we say that every spring too.

[mja]

Originally Posted by streetscaper

The harshest Winter in decades prob has something to do with that (as we know there is a definite correlation between temperature and the incidence of criminality). Let's hope we still maintain some degree of reduction as we head into warmer months

This trend is multiple years-long now and widespread. It's nothing seasonal.

I think we very poorly understand what is actually behind trends in homicide rates. Like, clearly the pandemic led to a huge increase in homicides in cities for a few years (though those had already been trending up for a few years prior to that), but otherwise, I don't think you can simply point to one of the usual suspects--weather, policing, etc.--for an easy explanation. I suspect it's really all incredibly complex and dynamic.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by mja

This trend is multiple years-long now and widespread. It's nothing seasonal.

I think we very poorly understand what is actually behind trends in homicide rates. Like, clearly the pandemic led to a huge increase in homicides in cities for a few years (though those had already been trending up for a few years prior to that), but otherwise, I don't think you can simply point to one of the usual suspects--weather, policing, etc.--for an easy explanation. I suspect it's really all incredibly complex and dynamic.

irl its both and all of the above. yes there is a big long running downward trend in crime now that the government has replaced crazed crack addicts with zombie drugs. err, umm i guess. nobody can deny that but trump and he would lie. but even with much lower overall crime there is still seasonal fluctuation, including for super hot summers and more miserable than typical winters and the like. or umm, plandemics.

[streetscaper]

Originally Posted by mja

This trend is multiple years-long now and widespread. It's nothing seasonal.

I think we very poorly understand what is actually behind trends in homicide rates. Like, clearly the pandemic led to a huge increase in homicides in cities for a few years (though those had already been trending up for a few years prior to that), but otherwise, I don't think you can simply point to one of the usual suspects--weather, policing, etc.--for an easy explanation. I suspect it's really all incredibly complex and dynamic.

The multiple years-long trend is a decrease, but not a 41% decrease, that's definitely an anomaly relative to the trend. It makes sense to draw a connection to the anomalous Winter we've had.

It's obvious that I was giving an explanation for this one season's suuuuper large decrease and not the more moderate, consistent decreases over the last few years, where the weather argument indeed would make no sense.

[mja]

Originally Posted by streetscaper

The multiple years-long trend is a decrease, but not a 41% decrease, that's definitely an anomaly relative to the trend. It makes sense to draw a connection to the anomalous Winter we've had.

It's obvious that I was giving an explanation for this one season's suuuuper large decrease and not the more moderate, consistent decreases over the last few years, where the weather argument indeed would make no sense.

We always, and I mean always, hear about the weather, and it's almost always insufficient. It simply doesn't explain what we're seeing in Philly, for example, which is a precipitous annual drop (with a mild winter) followed by an even more precipitous annual drop (with a harsher winter, but not historical by any means). Meanwhile, the weather's been fine for the last month, and yet we've had a whopping 5 homicides in that time. That's a fairly low number for a week in Philly, historically, let alone an entire month. And this sort of drop is happening in all sorts of places all over the country--places with temperate weather, warm weather, mild weather. Weather just doesn't really seem to be that much of a factor in the end, which to be clear isn't to say that it isn't a factor at all, but you just can't simply point to it and call it a day.

IMO, there's a tendency to latch onto an easy explanation for something that just isn't easily explained. I generally don't buy into the idea of shifts in policing being the cause, because there's simply too many localities all doing their own thing, often 180 degrees from one another. For example, Philadelphia is supposed to be a hellscape with Krasner as DA, per the law and order crowd, and that simply hasn't been the case, not that they will acknowledge that. Political leadership? These trends started under Biden and have continued under Trump.

I think that there's not only not a singular cause, but there isn't even a tidy group of causes you can point to. I suspect it's really a vast constellation of factors small, medium, and large; local, regional, and national; immediate, recent, and long-term, etc. all interacting with one another in complex ways that push these trends in one direction or another.

[streetscaper]

Originally Posted by mja

We always, and I mean always, hear about the weather, and it's almost always insufficient. It simply doesn't explain what we're seeing in Philly, for example, which is a precipitous annual drop (with a mild winter) followed by an even more precipitous annual drop (with a harsher winter, but not historical by any means). Meanwhile, the weather's been fine for the last month, and yet we've had a whopping 5 homicides in that time. That's a fairly low number for a week in Philly, historically, let alone an entire month. And this sort of drop is happening in all sorts of places all over the country--places with temperate weather, warm weather, mild weather. Weather just doesn't really seem to be that much of a factor in the end, which to be clear isn't to say that it isn't a factor at all, but you just can't simply point to it and call it a day.

IMO, there's a tendency to latch onto an easy explanation for something that just isn't easily explained. I generally don't buy into the idea of shifts in policing being the cause, because there's simply too many localities all doing their own thing, often 180 degrees from one another. For example, Philadelphia is supposed to be a hellscape with Krasner as DA, per the law and order crowd, and that simply hasn't been the case, not that they will acknowledge that. Political leadership? These trends started under Biden and have continued under Trump.

I think that there's not only not a singular cause, but there isn't even a tidy group of causes you can point to. I suspect it's really a vast constellation of factors small, medium, and large; local, regional, and national; immediate, recent, and long-term, etc. all interacting with one another in complex ways that push these trends in one direction or another.

I wasn't talking about Philly, I was talking about New York. A large drop like that for New York is definitely an anomaly. Why are you being obtuse?

Weather is definitely a huge factor in the incidence of violent crimes:







It's not at all crazy to think that having more days that look like the left side of the above graph in a given month will lead to a drastic reduction of murders for that month. In fact, that's exactly what the graph shows.

[streetscaper]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

nyc murders —
as of feb 22, 2026

2026 = 26
2025 = 48
%chg = -41.7%

everything else is also down too
except rape slightly up

so much for mayhem under mamdani —

Already, a month later, the year-to-date decrease in the murder rate for nyc is not as profound as this past Feb, indicating that Jan and Feb were somehow especially non-murderous compared to March. One would be a fool to think the very harsh Winter weather is not a driving factor for this.

as of March 22, 2026

2026 = 44
2025 = 68
%chg = -35.3%


I'm willing to bet good money that percent change gets less profound as the weather warms up.

[mja]

Originally Posted by streetscaper

I wasn't talking about Philly, I was talking about New York. A large drop like that for New York is definitely an anomaly. Why are you being obtuse?

Weather is definitely a huge factor in the incidence of violent crimes:

It's not at all crazy to think that having more days that look like the left side of the above graph in a given month will lead to a drastic reduction of murders for that month. In fact, that's exactly what the graph shows.

First, I specifically stated that it is a factor, and second, yes, Philadelphia weather is notoriously so different than NYC weather.

And anyway you are misunderstanding my point, I'm not saying that violent crime doesn't go up in warmer months over colder months for obvious reasons. I'm arguing that weather as a factor tends to be overblown in these discussions (e.g. you can't simply point to the relative harshness of a given winter) and doesn't explain the larger (national) trends that we see. We're seeing a prolonged drop in crime almost across the board over multiple years. Weather doesn't come close to adequately explaining that. There are other factors at play.

[streetscaper]

Originally Posted by mja

First, I specifically stated that it is a factor, and second, yes, Philadelphia weather is notoriously so different than NYC weather.

And anyway you are misunderstanding my point, I'm not saying that violent crime doesn't go up in warmer months over colder months for obvious reasons. I'm arguing that weather as a factor tends to be overblown in these discussions (e.g. you can't simply point to the relative harshness of a given winter) and doesn't explain the larger (national) trends that we see. We're seeing a prolonged drop in crime almost across the board over multiple years. Weather doesn't come close to adequately explaining that. There are other factors at play.

Omfg.. Am I talking to a bot? Are you purposefully not reading my posts and arguing things I never claimed? Jesus Christ!

I'm NOT talking about long term trends. Never was. Those are indeed national and multi-factorial, obviously weather can't explain those... I'm talking about JUST THE FIRST 2 MONTHS of this year in NEW YORK, and weather can indeed be an explanation for JUST 2 MONTHS

You won't find a 41% drop (NYC's number for JUST JAN AND FEB) in murder year-over-year at any point in the last 5 years in NYC. It only happened now, almost assuredly because of the weather, and the murders are going back up this month (as I showed in last post), all consistent with the FIRST 2 MONTHS being an anomaly because of the weather.

If you're so concerned about Philadelphia, it's the same there.

as of March 31, 2026
%chg in Murders year-to-date compared to 2025= -54% A wild decrease for the FIRST 3 MONTHS

But for the last 28 days (after the harshest Winter) the number is starting to creep up
%chg in Murders compared to 2025= -40%


I bet it's the same all across the Eastern Seaboard that received the harshest FIRST 2 MONTHS weather-wise in a very long time


By comparison, Los Angeles, which did not receive the harshest Winter for the FIRST 2 MONTHS, had "just" a -12.1% decrease in murders for JAN and FEB, That is the more baseline decrease one would expect because of the long-term, multifactorial reduction in crime across the nation. Not 40-60% reduction in crime in just 1 season.

But keep beating the strawman argument I never made. I'm done arguing with people not getting a very easy point to get.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by streetscaper

Already, a month later, the year-to-date decrease in the murder rate for nyc is not as profound as this past Feb, indicating that Jan and Feb were somehow especially non-murderous compared to March. One would be a fool to think the very harsh Winter weather is not a driving factor for this.

as of March 22, 2026

2026 = 44
2025 = 68
%chg = -35.3%


I'm willing to bet good money that percent change gets less profound as the weather warms up.

why are you quoting me?

i said that.

[streetscaper]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

why are you quoting me?

i said that.

I was using your post as a reference and giving an update to it

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by streetscaper

I was using your post as a reference and giving an update to it

ok kewl, but probably not a good idea next time when you are going to say things like, “One would be a fool to think the very harsh Winter weather is not a driving factor for this” because it looks like you meant me.

[streetscaper]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

ok kewl, but probably not a good idea next time when you are going to say things like, “One would be a fool to think the very harsh Winter weather is not a driving factor for this” because it looks like you meant me.

hahah I can see how you might think that, sorry about that.