Quote:
Originally Posted by Lobotomizer
I found this interesting. San Antonio MSA now only has 192,195 more people than the Austin MSA, which is less than 7% larger.
San Antonio - 2,813,140
Austin - 2,620,945
|
I’m not sure growth alone will get Austin above San Antonio by 2030. Austin MSA will need to add Milam, Lee, and Burnet counties to surpass San Antonio MSA within the next 10 years—and their commuter stats have hovered just beneath the required rate for the last twenty years. Milam and Lee will almost certainly be added when the Taylor Samsung plant is fully staffed.
Let’s assume their growth rates for the last half of the decade are the same as the first half (a “best case” scenario, and probably dubious given the immigration collapse):
2030:
Austin: ~3,008,000
San Antonio: ~3,094,000
But then… project the same derived growth rate for the entire decade to the next decade:
2040:
Austin: ~3,454,000
San Antonio: ~3,403,000
It could happen, but with the immigration collapse I’m not sure growth rates will stay high—and if they don’t, growth alone will not be enough for Austin to surpass San Antonio. It’ll need to add geography.
I think a more realistic scenario is something like 1.9% Austin / 1.45% San Antonio annualized through 2030 and then 1.6%/1.2% thru 2040:
That would put Austin at 3.38m in 2040 and San Antonio at 3.39m. Which is.. a year away from being surpassed.
Prev
Linear Mode
