Portland Politics Thread

[Jakz]

Originally Posted by colossalorder

File under doom loop. Very interesting WWeek article.

https://www.wweek.com/news/2025/10/29/po...in-tax-compression-courtesy-of-big-pink/

Tax the living crap out of businesses and the wealthy and they simply pack up and go. Property values crater ... then property tax collections crater ... leaving fewer resources to support our civic necessities and grand social ambitions.

How will voters react to the upcoming ballot measure with a 75% jump on the tax levy for parks? Will they continue their toxic love affair with taxes or have we hit a tipping point where they are finally tapped out and wake up to economic reality.

I actively use and cherish Portland parks. However through indirect feedback loops, taxing more might actually mean collecting less in the grand scheme of things. Less for the parks and everything else we need.

Iain made the very good point on Bluesky that in real terms property taxes have actually decreased since 2020.

One way of looking at it. Five years of the 3% increase in assessed value means property taxes have gone up 16% in five years. But inflation over that same period was 25%. So in real terms we've all seen a ~9% property tax cut compared to 5 years ago.

And of course local public agencies are now struggling to make their budgets work. It's the inevitable result of the inflation rate exceeding the Measure 20 maximum for several years in a row.

If/when inflation goes back to 2% we can think about lowering tax rates to keep tax bills constant year-to-year. But that looks extremely unlikely over the 5-year life of this bond. For the next five years at least it makes sense to raise the rate so (real) collections match 2020 levels.

[colossalorder]

That's all fair, but I think its important talk about both change and level, both matter for decision-making.

According to this study, Portland has the 3rd highest effective property taxes in the country.

https://www.lincolninst.edu/publications...ive-property-tax-rates-across-us-states/

I think its a pretty indisputable fact that Portland is an outlier in terms of total tax burden on its businesses and residents. This increases the cost of doing business and the cost of living for ALL residents. Even renters pay property taxes indirectly.

Its a simple economic principle that if you tax too much, you may actually collect less $ as the tax base leaves. The big pink story is an example of this. It is the doom loop. Even our progressive Demcratic governor is fighting against additional taxes.

[maccoinnich]

Originally Posted by colossalorder

According to this study, Portland has the 3rd highest effective property taxes in the country.

https://www.lincolninst.edu/publications...ive-property-tax-rates-across-us-states/

This study is nonsense though; it claims that Portland has an effective property tax rate of 2.59%..? I'm currently paying 0.76% on what the county say the market value of the my home is. And while I'm in a neighborhood that is a Measure 50 "winner", I had a quick look at the taxes at a house in a M50 "loser" neighborhood and it was still only just over 1%.

[eric cantona]

Originally Posted by maccoinnich

This study is nonsense though; it claims that Portland has an effective property tax rate of 2.59%..? I'm currently paying 0.76% on what the county say the market value of the my home is. And while I'm in a neighborhood that is a Measure 50 "winner", I had a quick look at the taxes at a house in a M50 "loser" neighborhood and it was still only just over 1%.

also - no sales tax.

[colossalorder]

Lucky you! My property tax bill this year is approx 2.3% of what I could probably sell my place for. (That may explain our differing views on the question).

That said, I do agree that their number for Portland feels high overall. Part of that answer may lay in their methodology. As the study notes ... "the effective tax rate will be significantly different from the nominal or official tax rate that appears on their tax bill"

Probably the better measure would be to look at property taxes paid as a percent of a person's income, rather than property value. That is, how much of your paycheck does it eat. I know its painful for me. I don't see any studies on that though.

I think the bigger picture point is that Portland's economy from a suffers an unusually high tax burden (even accounting for absence of sales tax). This threatens doom loop. This doesn't seem to be a controversial point in the mainstream, but seems to be so in this forum for some reason. The upcoming ballot initiative is just going increase the cost of living here.

Probably the point that everyone here can agree on that the city and county have not proven themselves to be very effective stewards of these tax dollars. Do they deserve more?

[maccoinnich]

I would definitely agree that Oregon generally and Multnomah County specifically is over reliant on income tax and that's a problem, especially when our larger neighboring state immediately to the north has the exact opposite tax structure. (But if anyone thinks that governments in Washington don't find ways to fund themselves, moving from Portland to Seattle will definitely give you sticker shock when trying to register a car, drive across a bridge or sell a home).

Where I am pushing back is the notion that we have unusually high property taxes here. Measure 50 creates some weird distortions, but a 2.3% effective property tax rate is an extreme outlier. The median property tax rate in Multnomah County is 1.07%, which would drop us down to position #32 in that Lincoln Institute study.

[RED_PDXer]

None of my properties has more than a 1.1% property tax rate. Even looking at relatively new developments in my area I couldn't find property tax rates more than 1.8%. Anything about 2% must be an extreme outlier.

[PhillyPDX]

Property tax rates are so hard to compare city to city. Philly has things like $100k homestead exemptions for your first home, assessed values historically decades out of date etc. I just looked at my old (rental) place in Philly with a market value like around $1.5M, assessed for $800k per the city, and paying less than 0.8% of market value (official tax rate is 1.4%, likely what these comparison studies would use to compare city to city). I'm assuming many cities have weird oddities like this that have profound impacts on the actual rates people pay relative to market rate.

Ultimately the total bill matters more to people than the % of market value that is subject to the housing market, bubbles, etc. My same house could cost $200k, or $2M on open market, and that delta has virtually no bearing on the cost for the city gov't to operate.

[colossalorder]

Call me an outlier then. I've got a big pink type situation ... downtown condo where the market value has plummeted. Meanwhile my property taxes just keep going up every year.

[colossalorder]

https://www.portland.gov/council/distric...dan-ryan-announces-opposition-parks-levy

Portland City Councilor Dan Ryan today announced his opposition to the Portland Parks Levy (Measure 26-260).

"I love our parks, but this levy asks Portlanders to pay for inefficiencies the bureau hasn't fixed. The Parks Bureau can and should generate more of its own revenue instead of relying again on taxpayers. Until we see real institutional change, it's not fair to keep coming back to voters for another tax increase. I'm voting no."

In a letter to constituents sent Friday, Councilor Ryan points out fee discounts not tied to means testing and the lack of urgency to finalize a public-private operational partnership of the Portland Tennis Center as current inefficiencies. He also laments the current restrictions placed on revenue generated from system development charges. That money currently can only be used for new construction, not deferred maintenance or operational costs of assets.

"I was flabbergasted when I was informed of this restriction," Ryan writes, "If this rule was not the letter of the law, I would have invested in deferred maintenance when I was Parks Commissioner in 2023. I will continue to ask the Mayor and Government Affairs to ‘fix' this nonsensical law."

[uncommon.name]

Originally Posted by colossalorder

Even our progressive Demcratic governor is fighting against additional taxes.

I'm curious what you mean by this statement? Our Governer just implimented one of the largest overal tax hikes in Oregon State history... Just because it isn't Property Tax, doesn't mean it won't impact every single Oregonian.

[PhillyPDX]

https://www.wweek.com/news/2025/11/13/mu...th-causing-deficit-for-next-fiscal-year/

The data recently is pretty bad, but not unexpected based on anecdotal observation. Never good when for 2 straight years the city is 2nd least desirable in the entire country for real estate investment (which ultimately is a canary in the coal mine for the local economy), and also the city had the worst job losses in the entire country per this article.

I'm not sure what is needed from politicos, but I'm not convinced this situation simply self-corrects itself for "reasons". There is some hope in vastly lower sales prices allowing a gentrification of downtown, but even that might be wishful thinking at this point.

I do think Mayor Wilson has the right ideas and attitude. Will city council work with him? Will Metro/Multnomah county?

[urbanlife]

Portland and Seattle have a Mayor Wilson at the same time!

[colossalorder]

A new proposal would end Multnomah County’s government

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2026...ld-end-multnomah-countys-government.html

https://multnomo.org/

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by colossalorder

A new proposal would end Multnomah County’s government

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2026...ld-end-multnomah-countys-government.html

https://multnomo.org/

Thus making all of unicorporated Multnomah County into the City of Portland...that kind of sounds like a terrible idea. If we need something to be more of a unifier, making Metro stronger would make more sense when it comes to the overall well being of the metro.

[ThatDarnSacramentan]

Originally Posted by urbanlife

Thus making all of unicorporated Multnomah County into the City of Portland...that kind of sounds like a terrible idea. If we need something to be more of a unifier, making Metro stronger would make more sense when it comes to the overall well being of the metro.

I can't say I'm a law expert, but maybe there's a way where east county/unincorporated areas get spun off into Multnomah County and instead Portland gets a "new" Portland County? That would seem more reasonable than folding Gresham and Troutdale and others into Portland, not that that would ever happen.

If anything, I think trickier challenge would be how to maneuver the small pockets of Portland here and there that go into Washington and Clackamas counties.

Either way, something has to be done about the continuing dysfunction at the county level.

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by ThatDarnSacramentan

I can't say I'm a law expert, but maybe there's a way where east county/unincorporated areas get spun off into Multnomah County and instead Portland gets a "new" Portland County? That would seem more reasonable than folding Gresham and Troutdale and others into Portland, not that that would ever happen.

If anything, I think trickier challenge would be how to maneuver the small pockets of Portland here and there that go into Washington and Clackamas counties.

Either way, something has to be done about the continuing dysfunction at the county level.

Apparently it is complex but possible to do to have Mutnomah county split up with Portland County being all of incorporated Portland, and Multnomah County being the unincorporated area and surrounding towns in the county.

[PhillyPDX]

Pretty ominous. The lack of housing production is shocking. And the job losses relative to the national stage.

https://portlandmetrochamber.com/resourc...xEhGQMZSvduCA_aem_LxluotyHzRxhCFNHmmyetA

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by PhillyPDX

Pretty ominous. The lack of housing production is shocking. And the job losses relative to the national stage.

https://portlandmetrochamber.com/resourc...xEhGQMZSvduCA_aem_LxluotyHzRxhCFNHmmyetA

This report all but confirms this country is headed for a recession. I think the alarming thing is the natural born population growth is shrinking throughout the country, and combine that to being a country that has become hostile to international people migrating here, we will probably continue to see the overall population decline in the US.

[PhillyPDX]

Originally Posted by urbanlife

This report all but confirms this country is headed for a recession. I think the alarming thing is the natural born population growth is shrinking throughout the country, and combine that to being a country that has become hostile to international people migrating here, we will probably continue to see the overall population decline in the US.

Regardless you still want to do well relative to the national picture (or even Clark county for that matter). We can't avoid recessions forever, and regardless of root cause(s), are ultimately part of a natural business cycle. Strength and diversity of a local economy will help to limit recession losses.

Natural growth is a big issue, as has been the case for the vast majority of the world's leading economies for a while now.