Worldwide Demographics

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Some latest vital stats for the United States:

1957: 4,308,000 births; 1,633,128 deaths; +2,666,872 natural growth (highest natural growth ever recorded)
2007: 4,316,234 births; 2,423,712 deaths; +1,892,522 natural growth (highest number of births ever recorded)
2021: 3,664,292 births; 3,464,231 deaths; +200,061 natural growth (lowest natural growth ever recorded, highest number of deaths ever recorded, Covid crisis peak)
2023: 3,596,017 births; 3,090,964 deaths; +505,053 natural growth (lowest number of births since 1979)
2024: 3,622,673 births; 3,072,551 deaths; +550,122 natural growth (lowest fertility rate ever recorded 1.599 child/woman)


Figures for Jan-Mai 2025 have already been released. A tiny decrease on the number of births and a good increase on deaths. It seems natural growth will fall below 500k again:

Births Jan-Mai 2024: 1,470,366
Deaths Jan-Mai 2024: 1,311,778
Natural Growth: +158,588

Births Jan-Mai 2025: 1,461,364
Deaths Jan-Mai 2025: 1,338,379
Natural Growth: +122,985

Halfyear:

Births Jan-Jun 2024: 1,763,362
Deaths Jan-Jun 2024: 1,553,978
Natural Growth: +209,384

Births Jan-Jun 2025: 1,762,384
Deaths Jan-Jun 2025: 1,571,872
Natural Growth: +190,512

[Yuri]

Number of people living in urban areas above 1 million inh.

------------------------ People -------- Urban Areas - Total Area --------- Density

United States --- 166,155,317 (50.1%) -- 46 -- 130,957 Km² (1.43%) --- 1,269 inh./Km²

Brazil ----------- 76,271,080 (37.6%) -- 21 --- 11,397 Km² (0.13%) --- 6,692 inh./Km²

Mexico ----------- 53,307,336 (42.3%) -- 14 --- 10,027 Km² (0.51%) --- 5,316 inh./Km²

Britain ---------- 25,218,746 (37.7%) --- 8 ---- 5,325 Km² (2.20%) --- 4,736 inh./Km²

Germany ---------- 24,095,150 (28.8%) --- 8 ---- 6,400 Km² (1.79%) --- 3,765 inh./Km²

Argentina -------- 21,468,871 (46.8%) --- 5 ---- 5,579 Km² (0.20%) --- 3,848 inh./Km²

Colombia --------- 18,421,324 (35.3%) --- 5 ---- 1,076 Km² (0.09%) -- 17,120 inh./Km²

Canada ----------- 16,910,106 (45.7%) --- 6 ---- 6,762 Km² (0.08%) --- 2,501 inh./Km²

Italy ------------ 15,005,220 (25.2%) --- 5 ---- 3,583 Km² (1.19%) --- 4,188 inh./Km²

Australia -------- 14,860,862 (58.5%) --- 5 ---- 9,676 Km² (0.13%) --- 1,536 inh./Km²

Spain ------------ 14,345,417 (29.8%) --- 4 ---- (---------------) --- (------------)

Ecuador ----------- 5,704,941 (33.7%) --- 2 ------ 877 Km² (0.34%) --- 6,505 inh./Km²

Belgium ----------- 3,012,717 (25.6%) --- 2 ------ 946 Km² (3.08%) --- 3,185 inh./Km²

Sweden ------------ 1,930,538 (18.3%) --- 1 ------ 536 Km² (0.13%) --- 3,602 inh./Km²

Puerto Rico ------- 1,844,410 (57.8%) --- 1 ---- 1,978 Km² (22.30%) ---- 933 inh./Km²

Uruguay ----------- 1,661,989 (47.5%) --- 1 ------ 418 Km² (0.24%) --- 3,972 inh./Km²

Denmark ----------- 1,597,298 (26.7%) --- 1 ------ 355 Km² (0.83%) --- 4,499 inh./Km²

New Zealand ------- 1,440,300 (28.1%) --- 1 ------ 607 Km² (0.23%) --- 2,372 inh./Km²

Ireland ----------- 1,436,405 (27.9%) --- 1 ------ 401 Km² (0.59%) --- 3,582 inh./Km²

Finland ----------- 1,376,511 (24.6%) --- 1 ------ 691 Km² (0.23%) --- 1,992 inh./Km²

Norway ------------ 1,098,061 (19.8%) --- 1 ------ 276 Km² (0.09%) --- 3,974 inh./Km²

[Yuri]

The United States is the urban sprawl king. Its urbanized areas above 1 million cover an area the size of England. Canada, Australia and New Zealand, similar countries in terms of urban pattern sprawl way less than the US, posting higher densities. Canada twice as higher.

The United States have 3 urban areas between 900k and 1 million: Honolulu (971k), New Orleans (963k) and Buffalo (958k), but all of them post rather slow growth rates and might take a while to cross the 1 million people mark. Honolulu is closer and will probably be above on the next Census in 2030.

Brazil gets 4 on the same conditions (Teresina 977k, Cuiabá 932k, Aracaju 917k and Sorocaba 903k) and all of them except for Aracaju will probably cross the 1 million mark by 2030. Teresina is very close and Cuiabá and Sorocaba have been growing fast.

Britain has Nottingham (982k) and Southampton (972k) and they will probably manage to reach it by time of the next census. Germany has Mannheim (983k), Bremen (941k) and Hannover (901k). I see only Mannheim crossing the mark.

Spain and Italy have Bilbao (882k) and Florence (933k) next on the line, but the former is actually shrinking and the latter growing very slowly.

[isaidso]

Is your table using 2023 data?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Is your table using 2023 data?

No. Except for Germany and Sweden, statistical offices don't keep track of urban population on their estimates. We need to rely on the last Census for a while. For Canada it's better as we'll have one next year. For the others, we'll have to wait till the next decade.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Yuri

No. Except for Germany and Sweden, statistical offices don't keep track of urban population on their estimates. We need to rely on the last Census for a while. For Canada it's better as we'll have one next year. For the others, we'll have to wait till the next decade.

Thanks.

[Yuri]

World's newest megacity: Luanda

Angola just released their Census results and population growth was staggering:

1970 ---- 5,646,166
2014 --- 25,789,024
2024 --- 36,604,681 (+41.9%)

And now it's safe to say Luanda is officially a megacity as 2025, Luanda being here Luanda Province (newest borders) plus the neighbouring municipalities of Sequele and Calumbo, totalling 2,174 Km² or 839 sqm:

1970 ----- 569,113
2014 --- 6,837,694
2024 --- 9,926,392 (+45.2%)

[Yuri]

Immigration US

Guys, do have more info on how immigration was in the US in 2025. I found some articles claiming foreign population in the US has shrunk by 1 million between Jan-Jun.

If that’s true the US population might shrink by as much as 1.5 million (+500k natural growth, -2 million emigrants).

[Yuri]

In 2025 we've reached a milestone: the bloc of countries formed by the Americas, Europe (inc. Turkey, Caucasus and Russia), the whole East Asia, the whole Southeast Asia (minus Philippines and Indonesia) and Oceania, comprising 3.8 billion people (47% of world population and about 90% of GDP), posted a negative natural growth (births minus deaths) of -550,000 inh.

[Yuri]

Breakdown:

Americas: 1.13 billion (+4.3 million)

Europe: 700 million (-1.5 million)

East Asia: 1.63 billion (-4.5 million)

Southeast Asia (minus PH e ID): 292 million (+1.1 million)

Oceania: 47 million (+200k)

[Yuri]

And the other half of the world:

Africa: 1.52 billion (+30 million)

Middle East (minus Turkey and Caucasus): 410 million (+4.0 million)

Central Asia: 80 million (+1.2 million)

South Asia: 1.9 billion (+21.5 million)

Indonesia & Philippines: 399 million (+4.5 million)

Total of 4.3 billion (53% of world population, 15% of world's GDP), natural growth of 61 million.

[Yuri]

France 2025 numbers are out: 66,351,959 inh.

Negative for the 2nd year: 610,065 births and 631,145 deaths, for a negative natural growth of –21,080 (–737 in 2024).

Natural growth in France was at +280,480 as late as 2006 and up to 2014 it was above 200k. In 2010, 802,000 births were registered and the number fell to a full 1/4 within 2025.

610,000 births were the lowest number ever recorded in France for the past 200 years except for the 1915-1919 and 1940-1942 periods. In 1825, for example, 1,026,604 births were recorded in France.

France and Argentina were always appointed as successful cases over holding on to high fertility levels decades after their demographic transition. France fell below 3 children per woman in 1949; Argentina in 1964. France got above 2 as late as 2010; Argentina in 2018. Now France plunged to 1.59; Argentina to 1.33.

And countries that tried to emulate the "French model", like Germany and Japan displayed some success over while making people believe the model worked. Japan rising from 1.26 in 2005 to 1.45 in 2015 only to fall to an all-time low of 1.12 in 2025; Germany 1.24 in 1994, kept on 1.3 up to 2011 and saw a spike surpassing the 1.5 for every year between 2015 and 2021, peaking at 1.59 in 2016. In 2024, back to 1.35.

This new declining trend is clearly universal and apparently unstoppable.

[hipster duck]

You can't fight declining fertility. There's something universal that transcends culture and materialism going on. Every country's fertility is going down or, at best, stagnating. Rich countries, poor countries; countries where the cost of living is high and going up, countries where the cost of living is low and going down; countries with high religiosity, countries where almost everyone is an atheist; countries where women have a lot of rights, countries where women have few rights; countries with generous social welfare states, and countries that have none.

Someone sometime this century will have to figure out how to run a thriving society that's also losing people, because it's inevitable. Our current systems are based on forever growth, and that's clearly not sustainable.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

You can't fight declining fertility. There's something universal that transcends culture and materialism going on. Every country's fertility is going down or, at best, stagnating. Rich countries, poor countries; countries where the cost of living is high and going up, countries where the cost of living is low and going down; countries with high religiosity, countries where almost everyone is an atheist; countries where women have a lot of rights, countries where women have few rights; countries with generous social welfare states, and countries that have none.

Someone sometime this century will have to figure out how to run a thriving society that's also losing people, because it's inevitable. Our current systems are based on forever growth, and that's clearly not sustainable.

Declining fertility rates is something universal. It's one of the few things that connects the entire mankind. For a while we thought some adjustments here and there or cultural particularities would shield some societies or that fertility rates somehow had an optimistically high floor. They don't and the past 8 years or so gave everybody a reality check.

Infinite growth is indeed impossible but our society works exclusively on that and it's better to adapt as soon as possible. Fighting low TFR is like fighting the gravity. It's a waste of time that would be better spent on creating new socioeconomic systems to protect us from those changes.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Yuri

France 2025 numbers are out: 66,351,959 inh.

Actually the population of France as of Jan. 1, 2026 is 69,683,500. This number is itself probably an underestimate, because INSEE does not have an immigration survey, so after the last census (Jan. 1, 2023) they use the average of the last 3 years (2020, 2021, 2022) as the net migration of France to make their 2026 estimate.

Immigration in 2023, 2024 and 2025 was high (as per figures from the ministry of the Interior), so most likely above the 2020, 2021, 2022 average. So probably France has already reached 70 million, but we will know for sure only when the 2024, 2025 and 2026 censuses are published.

In 2022, France recorded the highest net migration figure in its entire history (with the exception of 1962 with the exodus of 800,000 Europeans from Algeria who fled the country and arrived in Metropolitan France). It's probable that the figures were even higher after 2022.

Meanwhile, Germany registered a net population decline of 100,000 in 2025. Its net migration is now not high enough to compensate the surplus of deaths over births. The population of Germany declined to 83.5 million on Jan. 1, 2026. With France at 70 million, the two countries haven't been so close in population for 140 years.

[montréaliste]

@Brisavoine/

There almost certainly were more than Europeans fleeing to metro France in the aftermath of the Algerian war, just saying…

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Actually the population of France as of Jan. 1, 2026 is 69,683,500. This number is itself probably an underestimate, because INSEE does not have an immigration survey, so after the last census (Jan. 1, 2023) they use the average of the last 3 years (2020, 2021, 2022) as the net migration of France to make their 2026 estimate.

Immigration in 2023, 2024 and 2025 was high (as per figures from the ministry of the Interior), so most likely above the 2020, 2021, 2022 average. So probably France has already reached 70 million, but we will know for sure only when the 2024, 2025 and 2026 censuses are published.

In 2022, France recorded the highest net migration figure in its entire history (with the exception of 1962 with the exodus of 800,000 Europeans from Algeria who fled the country and arrived in Metropolitan France). It's probable that the figures were even higher after 2022.

Meanwhile, Germany registered a net population decline of 100,000 in 2025. Its net migration is now not high enough to compensate the surplus of deaths over births. The population of Germany declined to 83.5 million on Jan. 1, 2026. With France at 70 million, the two countries haven't been so close in population for 140 years.

Numbers refer to Metropolitan France.

All data regarding births and deaths are for this region to allow long-term comparisons specially as France borders are always changing, which would make any historical analysis impossible. Algeria, for instance, was France till the other day.

I wasn't aware of those recent waves of immigration, which makes the plunging on births in France even more striking.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Meanwhile, Germany registered a net population decline of 100,000 in 2025. Its net migration is now not high enough to compensate the surplus of deaths over births.

That's not a novelty though: Germany's population has shrunk every single year between 1974 and 1985 and then once again between 2003 and 2011, every year too.

Germany hasn't closed their 2025 vital stats numbers yet, but it seems they'll post a negative natural growth of -350,000, the lowest since 1945. And they're negative since 1972, by far the longest period than any other country. Japan, for instance, started declining only in 2007. Italy between 1993-2003 and since 2007 now.

[JManc]

I think native French have negative birth rates but immigrant populations are still above replacement levels pushing France's overall population and fertility rate upward.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by JManc

I think native French have negative birth rates but immigrant populations are still above replacement levels pushing France's overall population and fertility rate upward.

They're too few to make much difference in the grand scheme of things. Lots of rural and more "native" regions of France have TFR above the national average (Centre-Val de Loire, Hauts-de-France, Normandy, Pays de la Loire).

As 2024, 65.9% babies had both French-born parents; 19.0% had two foreign-born parents. Very similar to other Western European countries.