Worldwide Demographics

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Nite

I never thought the US would have a natural decrease before Canada but if the trends continues next year the US might reach negative natural increase first even with much higher fertility

For the US, it's more likely to happen in 2027, so Canada might still get there first.

Natural growth in the US peaked in 2007 at 1,892,522; in Canada, it was 146,233 in 2009. In 2023, the US got 507,932 and Canada 31,103.

Originally Posted by Quixote

The damage has already been done. Not only are young women less interested in having children, many of them are also unemployed. How do you juggle working a full-time job, raising a child, and supporting your parents and grandparents?

Also, even if Chinese women were to all of a sudden push out 3+ children, those children still need to be fed, educated, and cared for to become productive members of society... 20 years down the line. If the CCP wants women to have more children, perhaps they should provide more of a social safety net and not steal money from their citizens.

As CCP still has a strong grip over Chinese society, I guess they might achieve some success if they decide to increase TFR. I don't believe anything exceptional though: maybe raising it from the current 1.0 to something like 1.3-1.4 at most.

And unlike South Korea, they have a much bigger presence of state-owned companies and they can dictate more friendly policies on the labour market, something Koreans can't do it unless by a massive cultural shift which is very difficult to happen.

[mrnyc]

a rabbi walks into a bar with a frog on his shoulder. the bartender looks up and says, “where did you get that?” the frog says, “in greater ny, they got 1.4M of’em.” *** boom, tiiisch *** “i’ll be here all week folks.”



Jewish Population of Greater New York Reaches 1.4 Million

May 14, 2024 3:00 pm5
By Joseph Feldman


(JNS) – Almost 1.4 million people in the Greater New York Area identified as Jewish in 2023, according to a study by UJA-Federation of New York.

The Jewish Community Study of New York 2023 covers the five boroughs of New York City (Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx and Staten Island), as well as Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester counties.

UJA said the eight-county New York area continues to be home to the greatest concentration of Jews in the United States, adding that the area has experienced “broad stability” in the number of Jewish adults and children for the past three decades.


more:
https://vinnews.com/2024/05/14/jewish-population-of-greater-new-york-reaches-1-4-million/

[craigs]

How Los Angeles County became home to the biggest AAPI communities in the country

Aida Ylanan, Sandhya Kambhampati
Los Angeles Times
May 15, 2024

Los Angeles County is home to more Asian Americans than any other county in the United States. California is home to roughly 6 million Asians and Pacific Islanders, the most in the country, with the seven Southern California counties accounting for half of the state’s AAPI population. And Asian Americans are the fastest growing population in the nation. To understand the Asian and Pacific Islander diaspora in Southern California, the Los Angeles Times analyzed 40 years of data from the Census Bureau.
. . . .
AAPI communities have existed in Southern California since the 1800s, with ethnic enclaves such as Old Chinatown and Little Tokyo established by some of the region’s first Asian settlers. Neighborhoods such as Koreatown, Historic Filipinotown and Thai Town formed from a later influx of immigration after the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 opened the door to widespread migration from Asia. The AAPI population in Los Angeles grew from 198,000 in 1970 to almost a million in 1990, according to researchers at UCLA.

There are 14 Asian-majority suburbs in Los Angeles County, and all but one, Cerritos, are in the San Gabriel Valley. L.A. County has gained 2 million people since 1980, with the Asian population more than tripling from 417,000 to over 1.4 million today. Areas such as Monterey Park, Koreatown, Long Beach, Torrance and Cerritos each became home to between 10,000 to 18,000 Asians in the 1980s. Forty years later, these communities have tripled in size. Santa Clarita is home to the fastest-growing Asian population, from less than 600 to nearly 19,000 today.
. . . .

[craigs]

Some other points of interest from the above-referenced LA Times article:

• Orange County is home to the largest community of Vietnamese people outside of Vietnam.
  
• Southern California is home to the largest number of Thai people outside of Thailand and contains the only officially recognized Thai Town established in the United States.
  
• Long Beach is home to the largest Cambodian community outside of Cambodia.
  
• 721,000 Filipinos live in Southern California.
  
• The biggest Chamorro community (native to Melanesia) in the U.S. lives in San Diego County, with 9,000 people reporting Chamorro ancestry.

[jmecklenborg]

The Amish population in the United States has doubled since 2000 to 378,000:
https://www.wvxu.org/2024-05-28/your-new...-buggy-ohios-amish-population-is-growing

Per this article, most Amish women have 6-7 kids and 90% remain Amish as adults. Along with longer lifespans, this means that the Amish population is poised to double every 20-25 years.

[Crawford]

Orthodox Jews and Amish will, at some point, have the numbers to matter on a national scale.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Orthodox Jews and Amish will, at some point, have the numbers to matter on a national scale.

Yeah I just ran errands after posting and had that same thought. But even if that population doubles by 2050, much of the doubling will be non-voters under the age of 18.

By chance, Ohio and Pennsylvania have almost the exact same state population (roughly 12 million) and almost the exact same Amish population (roughly 90,000).

In theory, a presidential election could be tilted by the Amish in both states showing up in force at the polls. But I don't know where their politics typically lie, or where they'll be in 2050.

By 2100, things could be different, if the Amish population of each state approaches 500,000. But as we know, demographic trends tend to fizzle for reasons future demographers spend a lot of time trying to figure out.

[MolsonExport]

Is the First-Nations (Indigenous) population also growing faster than the national average, in the USA? It is in Canada, particularly in the Western Provinces and Territories.

[isaidso]

Manitoba is already 18.1% indigenous and Saskatchewan isn't that far behind at 17.0%. They both have rapidly growing aboriginal populations. Hutterittes probably have the highest TFR in Canada. They're a German speaking anabaptist group similar to Mennonite and Amish. Most live in Alberta and Saskatchewan. They used to register 6-7 children/woman but their birth rate is declining.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220921/dq220921a-eng.htm

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Yuri

The United States just released the stats regarding births and deaths for 2023: 3,588,013 births, lowest number since 1979, when the population was smaller by 110 million people. Deaths declined (3,065,607), the first year without Covid impacting, but they're above 2019.

In 2007, the US registered 4,316,234 births and 2,423,712 deaths for a natural growth of 1,892,552. In 2019, this number declined to mere 892,000 and plunged to 200,000 in 2021 during the massive number of deaths due Covid. And now it's at 522,000.

The US will probably post negative natural growth within 3-4 years. France might get there in 2024 already. Britain too. Then, only a handful developed countries will be left with positive natural growth, but barely, relying on massive immigration to keep up: Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland and maybe Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.

There were some minor updates for 2023 numbers: 3,591,328 births and 3,087,366 deaths in the US, for a 507,932 natural growth.

Figures for Jan-Apr 2024 have already been released and it seems there will be a small increase in births and decrease in deaths:

Births Jan-Apr 2023: 1,148,294
Deaths Jan-Apr 2023: 1,057,910

Births Jan-Apr 2024: 1,161,693
Deaths Jan-Apr 2024: 1,048,417

Increase Jan-Apr 2023: +90,384
Increase Jan-Apr 2024: +113,276

Births will probably be above 3.6 million again in 2024, but still below 2022 levels, the 2nd lowest number just behind 2023 itself. Deaths will be the same and I'd guess a natural growth just below 600,000. Fertility rate slightly above 2023 levels, at 1.62-1.63 children per women.

More: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

[Yuri]

Moldova released their 2024 Census numbers and we officially have the largest population collapse ever recorded on the past 150 years.

Moldova
1989: 3,657,665
2024: 2,409,207 --- -34.1%

Bulgaria and Latvia were leading but they were left behind:

Bulgaria
1985: 8,948,388
2021: 6,519,789 --- -27.2%

Latvia
1989: 2,666,567
2024: 1,862,700 --- -30.1%

Over 1/3 of Moldovan population vanished in merely 35 years. Ukraine will most likely had experienced an even greater loss, but we don't have data available and it involves a war.

[Crawford]

For Moldova, I wonder if they're counting the Russian-occupied section. Not sure how they could conduct a Census there.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

For Moldova, I wonder if they're counting the Russian-occupied section. Not sure how they could conduct a Census there.

No. It’s excluded from both 1989 and 2024 figures.

The whole Moldova reached above 4 million people by the end of Soviet period. In fact the Russian-speaking section has been de facto independent since 1991, so the central Moldovan government has never collected stats from there.

[muppet]

I heard Moldova used to be the densest part of the Soviet Union back in the day. Also great wine.

However beyond that there's little to write home about, so much so that youtubers now visit is as a gimmick, as the least visited country in Europe (they invariably have a blast).

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by muppet

I heard Moldova used to be the densest part of the Soviet Union back in the day. Also great wine.

However beyond that there's little to write home about, so much so that youtubers now visit is as a gimmick, as the least visited country in Europe (they invariably have a blast).

Referencing this one? It does look like a pretty cool place though - I'd love to go.

• Video Link

[SIGSEGV]

Most Moldovans can claim Romanian (and therefore EU) citizenship, so very many work in Romania (same language) or elsewhere in the EU. 25% of the GDP is remittances...

[muppet]

Yep also these:

• Video Link

• Video Link

[Yuri]

Some latest vital stats for the United States:

1957: 4,308,000 births; 1,633,128 deaths; +2,666,872 natural growth (highest natural growth ever recorded)
2007: 4,316,234 births; 2,423,712 deaths; +1,892,522 natural growth (highest number of births ever recorded)
2021: 3,664,292 births; 3,464,231 deaths; +200,061 natural growth (lowest natural growth ever recorded, highest number of deaths ever recorded, Covid crisis peak)
2023: 3,596,017 births; 3,090,964 deaths; +505,053 natural growth (lowest number of births since 1979)
2024: 3,628,934 births; 3,072,551 deaths; +556,383 natural growth (lowest fertility rate ever recorded 1.599 child/woman)


Figures for Jan-Mai 2025 have already been released. A tiny decrease on the number of births and a good increase on deaths. It seems natural growth will fall below 500k again:

Births Jan-Mai 2024: 1,470,366
Deaths Jan-Mai 2024: 1,311,778
Natural Growth: +158,588

Births Jan-Mai 2025: 1,461,364
Deaths Jan-Mai 2025: 1,338,379
Natural Growth: +122,985

[mhays]

Thanks for that.

Typo on 2024...births were very low, not the highest.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mhays

Thanks for that.

Typo on 2024...births were very low, not the highest.

Thank you. Copy and paste and forgot to delete.

But I got a record for 2024. Edited up there.