YVR & Sea Island Developments Discussion II

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

That list also just reinforces how subdued / suppressed mainland Chinese carriers remain.

Still only 12 weekly

And yet we've been breaking all-time records for APAC for the past few months now, despite having much less seats.

I'm surprised how stable the passenger number for APAC this year, I guess the peak season is being hard-capped by capacity limitation.

APAC passengers for YVR in 2025 per day:
Jan 12.6k
Feb 12.0k
Mar 12.1k
Apr 11.6k
May 12.0k
June 12.2k
July 12.6k
Aug 12.0k
Sept 12.0k
Oct 12.2k
Nov 12.2k

So except for April, the peak and low months only have 600 passenger difference per day. What happened to seasonal variations

I guess this explains why most routes to Pacific are now year-round.

Speaking of which.. I'm wonder if EK and QR starts YVR, would the airport group the passengers into APAC or Misc? What about the TK flight? Does it count as APAC, or Europe, or Misc?

[ninjakafi_81]

Originally Posted by nname

And yet we've been breaking all-time records for APAC for the past few months now, despite having much less seats.

I'm surprised how stable the passenger number for APAC this year, I guess the peak season is being hard-capped by capacity limitation.

I guess this explains why most routes to Pacific are now year-round.

I guess once AC gets an extra widebody or two, we could maybe see KIX go year round as the start and end date of the route is getting closer to one another.

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

Wow... ANA is going to fly ANOTHER flight to Tokyo? That's 5 daily flights to Tokyo in the summer.

I mean, if I'm honest, I'd have preferred YVR-KIX with NH or even YVR-FUK or YVR-NGO. I think there's a market for Fukuoka to get its first international flight to North America and pick up some American passengers who'd transfer through Vancouver.

I don't know if we'll ever see NH or JL expand out of other airports in Japan as they seem to let foreign airlines dominate at those airports. I can maybe see AC take a shot at Fukuoka once they have some slack in their widebody fleet. Plus having a flight to Fukuoka would also give tourists some exposure to Southern Japan as most of them only visit Tokyo, Kyoto, and Osaka.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

And yet we've been breaking all-time records for APAC for the past few months now, despite having much less seats.

Speaking of which.. I'm wonder if EK and QR starts YVR, would the airport group the passengers into APAC or Misc? What about the TK flight? Does it count as APAC, or Europe, or Misc?

Which shows just how much more potential there is once China flights increase. They are stimulating huge inbound tourism numbers to Melbourne and Sydney

I’m guessing TK would count as Europe. As for QR and EK I would assume Asia Pacific?

[VancityAvgeek33]

Does anyone know where the map went from air Canadas investor report 2024 that showed there route map from yvr? I can’t find it - I think they deleted it???

[hollywoodnorth]

Originally Posted by VancityAvgeek33

Does anyone know where the map went from air Canadas investor report 2024 that showed there route map from yvr? I can’t find it - I think they deleted it???

you mean this one? https://www.reddit.com/r/aircanada/comments/1ck5jzv/potential_new_destinations_from_the_investor/

(google is your friend)

[nname]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

you mean this one? https://www.reddit.com/r/aircanada/comments/1ck5jzv/potential_new_destinations_from_the_investor/

(google is your friend)

https://content.presspage.com/uploads/3167/52a2eedd-dd73-4f34-82aa-91d880d02314/investorday2024.pdf

This one is better, page 72.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

MCO in the summer doesn’t seem ideal and BOS still to be served with Jetblue

All AC have to do is to move one of the 4x weekly from MIA to MCO. Since they already have a station at MCO to serve YYZ/YUL flights, it won't cost them anything extra. Maybe with WS retreat, this weekly flight will perform better compared to flying to MIA.


[EDIT]
Aeroroute reported NH's YVR-NRT will be using 789

NH136 NRT1755 – 1040YVR 789 D
NH135 YVR1230 – 1440+1NRT 789 D

Source

I guess the YVR route doesn't follow the same numbering convention as other NA routes that uses NH 🞵🞵 for NRT service and NH 1xx for HND service to the same destination, since NH15/16 is already used by HND-ITM...

[VancityAvgeek33]

Originally Posted by nname

https://content.presspage.com/uploads/3167/52a2eedd-dd73-4f34-82aa-91d880d02314/investorday2024.pdf

This one is better, page 72.




All AC have to do is to move one of the 4x weekly from MIA to MCO. Since they already have a station at MCO to serve YYZ/YUL flights, it won't cost them anything extra. Maybe with WS retreat, this weekly flight will perform better compared to flying to MIA.


[EDIT]
Aeroroute reported NH's YVR-NRT will be using 789

NH136 NRT1755 – 1040YVR 789 D
NH135 YVR1230 – 1440+1NRT 789 D

Source

I guess the YVR route doesn't follow the same numbering convention as other NA routes that uses NH 🞵🞵 for NRT service and NH 1xx for HND service to the same destination, since NH15/16 is already used by HND-ITM...

Thank you so much! That’s what I have been looking for!!!! Also interesting AC launching 2 routes from Calgary to Mexico next winter - lowkey wish they were focusing on YVR tho.

[Johnny Aussie]

Meanwhile summarising today’s increases from 3 of YVR’s Asian carriers

As mentioned above

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260128-nhns26yvr

Star Alliance member ANA on Wednesday 28JAN26 filed operational schedule to its planned service resumption on Tokyo Narita – Vancouver route. Last served between March 2022 and March 2023, ANA will operate this seasonal service from 05JUN26 to 31AUG26, with 787-9 operating 1 daily flight.

This service, to be available for reservations soon, will be in addition to existing 1 daily flight from Tokyo Haneda.

NH136 NRT1755 – 1040YVR 789 D
NH135 YVR1230 – 1440+1NRT 789 D

T’way soon to be Trinity upgauge

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260129-twmar26yvr

Korean carrier T’way Air this week filed aircraft changes to Seoul Incheon – Vancouver route. From 05MAR26 to 28MAR26, service will be operated by Airbus A330-300 aircraft, instead of -200. This route is served 4 times weekly.

Schedules below focuses on the period of 08MAR26 – 28MAR26.

TW531 ICN2120 – 1525YVR 333 x135
TW532 YVR1725 – 2135+1ICN 333 x135

HK Airlines increases to 10 weekly for about 2 weeks end of August

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260129-hx3q26yvr

Hong Kong Airlines in the third quarter of 2026 schedules extra service on Hong Kong – Vancouver route, as the airline schedules morning service between 25AUG26 and 05SEP26. Overall service will be increased from 7 to 10 weekly during this period.

HX082 HKG1030 – 0815YVR 333 246
HX080 HKG2225 – 2015YVR 333 D

HX081 YVR0130 – 0615+1HKG 333 D
HX083 YVR1045 – 1610+1HKG 333 246

[ninjakafi_81]

With the announcement of Etihad Airways launching flights to Calgary later this year, I hope that means we could soon expect to hear an announcement of either Emirates and/or Qatar Airways launching flights to Vancouver.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

With the announcement of Etihad Airways launching flights to Calgary later this year, I hope that means we could soon expect to hear an announcement of either Emirates and/or Qatar Airways launching flights to Vancouver.

WOW!! Etihad to Calgary !! Etihad is the seond largest carrier of the ME3 and is hq'd in Abu Dhabi, the capital of tye UAE. *This will no doubtless push for EK and/or QR at YVR.

[xd_1771]

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

With the announcement of Etihad Airways launching flights to Calgary later this year, I hope that means we could soon expect to hear an announcement of either Emirates and/or Qatar Airways launching flights to Vancouver.

Since the writing is on the wall for EK (and now apparently QR), I can see Etihad wanting to get ahead of them on an announcement, and YYC in the same boat wanting to get ahead of YVR with another major route announcement.

It would be pretty bad however if the rumours don't prove to be true and YVR ends up with nothing while YYC ends up with the only direct link between Western Canada and the middle east. Surely Etihad's launch will motivate Emirates and Qatar to launch YVR faster, right?

[LeftCoaster]

Honestly who even knows anymore, I would be surprised if neither launched YVR, but 2026 has not been a good year to YVR so far so anything can happen.

[ninjakafi_81]

Originally Posted by xd_1771

It would be pretty bad however if the rumours don't prove to be true and YVR ends up with nothing while YYC ends up with the only direct link between Western Canada and the middle east. Surely Etihad's launch will motivate Emirates and Qatar to launch YVR faster, right?

Hopefully something gets announced by either EK or QR but a part of me also thinks nothing will get announced. I will try to remain optimistic as both airlines have not announced anything yet.

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Honestly who even knows anymore, I would be surprised if neither launched YVR, but 2026 has not been a good year to YVR so far so anything can happen.

Kind of curious but how has 2026 not been a good year ? Is it because neighbouring Calgary announced flights to Brazil and got an ME3 carrier ?

[LeftCoaster]

WS eviscerated transborder flying for S26
AC opening up more sun flying at yyc over yvr
South American expansion for yyz, yul, yyc and yet again nothing for yvr

Really the only bone we've been thrown is 3xPW winter service on the smallest widebody AC has. It's a cool destination don't get me wrong but yvr has definitely had the worst start to 26' of all the majors.

It could all change very quickly of course but not a rockin start imo.

[ninjakafi_81]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

WS eviscerated transborder flying for S26
AC opening up more sun flying at yyc over yvr
South American expansion for yyz, yul, yyc and yet again nothing for yvr

Really the only bone we've been thrown is 3xPW winter service on the smallest widebody AC has. It's a cool destination don't get me wrong but yvr has definitely had the worst start to 26' of all the majors.

It could all change very quickly of course but not a rockin start imo.

When you word it like that, the start of 2026 hasn't been that great for YVR. Even if the route doesn't workout, I'm still quite amazed that YYC was able to get flights to South America before YVR. I think the nail in the confin would be if Alaska started flights to South America from Seattle lol.

As for any network expansion, I'm not going to expect much from AC until they get some slack in the widebody fleet to see any significant growth from them. Until then, I'll be counting on foreign airlines to start any new route out of YVR.

[Johnny Aussie]

^ and luckily YVR has plenty of them

AC is restarting 2 of their sun routes at YYC (as indicated they probably would last year). WS had literally no competition for sun flights bar a once weekly Flair flight. Still a decent sized market for sun flights of course as history shows. My rellies that are left there certainly flee the frigid winters from YYC and YEG.

Guess we will just have to wait and see what’s next!

As for WS and Transborder Aeroroutes posted a rather detailed list. So many changes/cuts across the board. Looks like most of the cuts are delayed start dates for the peak summer (mid June to mid September). Too lengthy to summarise but this link shows everything. Jim Liu must have spent a lot of time compiling this! Still leaves a decent amount of Transborder flying from various Western Canada airports unlike AC!

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260127-ws2q26us

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

WS eviscerated transborder flying for S26
AC opening up more sun flying at yyc over yvr
South American expansion for yyz, yul, yyc and yet again nothing for yvr

Really the only bone we've been thrown is 3xPW winter service on the smallest widebody AC has. It's a cool destination don't get me wrong but yvr has definitely had the worst start to 26' of all the majors.

It could all change very quickly of course but not a rockin start imo.

Patience....

You really think EY would choose YYC over YVR on it's own? I don't think so.

They know full well EK is coming to YVR. Hence why they are steering clear of it. This is yet another piece to the confirmation puzzle that EK is in fact coming to YVR.

All the signs are there. All that is left is the press release. Patience. It's happening.

Wouldn't be surprised if EK starts YVR before EY starts YYC. After all, they announced YUL and started it 2.5 months later. EY isn't starting YYC for another 9+ months.

QR might take a bit more time, but it will happen as well. It might be pushed back to 2027 though...

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

When you word it like that, the start of 2026 hasn't been that great for YVR. Even if the route doesn't workout, I'm still quite amazed that YYC was able to get flights to South America before YVR. I think the nail in the confin would be if Alaska started flights to South America from Seattle lol.

As for any network expansion, I'm not going to expect much from AC until they get some slack in the widebody fleet to see any significant growth from them. Until then, I'll be counting on foreign airlines to start any new route out of YVR.

Fair points

The big reason Calgary YYC got its 1st South America nonstop before Vancouver YVR is currently all 7 of (WS) WestJet Boeing 787’s planes ✈️ are all base out of its Fortress Hub at YYC✅!

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

As for any network expansion, I'm not going to expect much from AC until they get some slack in the widebody fleet to see any significant growth from them. Until then, I'll be counting on foreign airlines to start any new route out of YVR.

Even with a spare frame, they chose to launch YUL-UIO on a 788 rather than YVR-South America to counter WS. Like I said I didn't think AC would bother trying to defend YVR because they don't care. WS is eating ACs lunch from western canada to Europe and AC has done literally nothing to respond (they actually cut service for this coming summer). Clearly it won't be any different for anywhere else.

Even when the fleet grows I expect all of those frames to stay out east. AC has shown they really only care about YVR-Asia and that market is pretty full. If the Chinese carriers get some more frequencies (likely after Carney's meeting with Winnie the Pooh) I'd expect AC to pull back any expansion plans, possibly even cutting some new routes like BKK/SIN.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

As for WS and Transborder Aeroroutes posted a rather detailed list. So many changes/cuts across the board. Looks like most of the cuts are delayed start dates for the peak summer (mid June to mid September). Too lengthy to summarise but this link shows everything. Jim Liu must have spent a lot of time compiling this! Still leaves a decent amount of Transborder flying from various Western Canada airports unlike AC!

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260127-ws2q26us

I got the impression from that list that the cuts only went to June 22, not that the start date was pushed out. We'll have to wait and see I suppose.

A later start date could make sense if it's mostly US demand. Canadian flyers would start going south earlier since the weather is better sooner, but if they're not flying then maybe the US demand is still there just later in the summer when the weather is more predictable up here.

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Patience....

You really think EY would choose YYC over YVR on it's own? I don't think so.

You know a lot more about the industry than I do, me being an outsider, so I'll take your analysis at higher value than mine, but nothing is for sure until the wheels touch down.

[hollywoodnorth]

Is it just me, or does a Qatar launch in Vancouver for Summer 2026 feel inevitable now? Etihad is targeting November for Calgary, but Qatar has the planes and the rights to beat them to the punch by four months. This will be a classic ME3 power move—launching YVR early to make Etihad’s expansion look like an afterthought. anyone want to bet a Costco Hotdog as per forum rules?