Statistics Canada Reports II

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Fredericton 74,655 +1629

Wow, “Entity 69” really is catching up! I still don’t think Fredericton will ever pass Saint John in city proper population, or CMA population for that matter, but it’s sure mighty close at the moment!

It shouldn’t happen though, at least not if the province even tries to right some of the historical wrongs that have led to Saint John’s decline and stagnation by investing in projects and developments designed to make Saint John a more appealing place to live with more diverse economic opportunities.

It wouldn’t make much sense if Canada’s third largest port was the third largest city in New Brunswick. Nonetheless, it could happen.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Fredericton 74,655 +1629

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

London city proper closing in on half a mil

London is soon to be entering fully fledged Wooterville territory


Added Freddy to the list!
City population, growth (2024-2025)

Toronto - 3,271,830, -8517
Montreal - 1,915,366, +4,882
Calgary - 1,612,834, +39,825
Edmonton - 1,238,295, +40,524
Ottawa (ON side only) - 1,188,114, +30,611
Winnipeg - 850,260, +8,245
Vancouver - 740,454, -8,334
Hamilton - 640,465, +7,226
Québec - 592,658, +4,699
Halifax (RGM) - 516,822, +7,831
London - 494,785, +4,730
Saskatoon - 318,067, +7,352
Regina - 263,419, +5,504
St. John's - 128,693, +1,942
Victoria, BC - 103,888, +811
Moncton - 102,378, +3,651
Saint John - 79,371, +1,080
Fredericton - 74,655 +1,629
Whitehorse - 34,129, +573
Yellowknife - 22,858, +563
Iqaluit - 8,612, +129

Source: Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0155-01 Population estimates, July 1, by census subdivision, 2021 boundaries
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/...025&referencePeriods=20240101%2C20250101

_______________________________________________
Cities sorted by numerical growth 2024-2025

1. Edmonton: +40,524, +3.4%
2. Calgary: +39,825, +2.5%
3. Ottawa, ON: +30,611, +2.6%
4. Winnipeg: +8,245, +1.0%
5. Halifax (RGM): +7,831, +1.5%
6. Saskatoon: +7,352, +2.4%
7. Hamilton: +7,226, +1.1%
8. Regina: +5,504, +2.1%
9. Montreal: +4,882, +0.3%
10. London: +4,730, +1.0%
11. Quebec: +4,699, +0.8%
12. Moncton: +3,651, +3.7%
13. St. John's: +1,942, +1.5%
14. Fredericton: +1,629, +2.2%
15. Saint John: +1,080, +1.4%
16. Victoria, BC: +811, +0.8%
17. Whitehorse: +573, +1.7%
18. Yellowknife: +563, +2.5%
19. Iqaluit: +129, +1.5%
20. Vancouver: -8,334, -1.1%
21. Toronto: -8,517, -0.3%

observations:
- Edmonton had a helluva year! City population growth narrowly outpacing Calgary, and an increase of 3.4% is impressive for a city larger than 1M.
- Saskatoon is the little boom town that keeps chugging along relatively unnoticed
- Moncton had extremely impressive growth of 3.7%!
- Winnipeg has one of the most stable economies in Canada and has experienced steady growth recently as well

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

It wouldn’t make much sense if Canada’s third largest port was the third largest city in New Brunswick. Nonetheless, it could happen.

Well, look at Prince Rupert...........

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Beaubassin (an Atlantic Canadian SSP member who doesn't post in the Canada section) made this interesting post in the Atlantic Canadian Statistics Thread:



A well thought out post. I agree with him. Shediac's boundaries have recently been expanded to include adjacent communities like Scoudouc and Shediac Bridge. This will push the population of the town well above the threshold to become it's own CA. This should occur after the 2026 census.

The expanded boundaries of Shediac are contiguous with the Moncton CMA. The commuting threshold for a CA are less onerous than for a community without CA status (35% vs 50%). Shediac, once it becomes a CA will be absorbed into the Moncton CMA (including neighbouring communities that will become part of the new CA once it is created).

This means the Moncton CMA could increase by 22,000-40,000 by the 2031 census.

The Moncton CMA is currently 196,000. The new CMA population in 2031 could be 218,000-236,000 (not including any natural growth). If you include natural growth (if it continues at current levels) it is conceivable Moncton's CMA population in 2031 could be 250,000.

This feels about right. The Shediac region psychologically feels like it is part of greater Moncton anyway.

Shediac definitely feels like it’s part of the Moncton Region, just like Quispamsis definitely feels like (and is officially) part of Saint John CMA. I think Shediac is a really nice town with the potential to be an even better tourist destination than it already is, especially if Quebeckers continue to forgo their usual summer vacations to New England and continue to come to New Brunswick and the Maritimes instead.

Heck, I could see Shediac and other coastal areas to Moncton’s north becoming more of a resort town/region where wealthy Quebeckers buy vacation properties and beach houses to spend the summer. And maybe Saint Andrew’s by the Sea could become that for wealthy Ontarians looking to escape the sweltering summer heat and humidity of Southern Ontario.


Relating to this topic, I still firmly believe there’s a huge opportunity for regional amalgamations in all three of NB’s CMAs, despite the quite provincial attitudes against amalgamation held by many New Brunswickers against what is otherwise an extremely common occurrence elsewhere in Canada… lol

Here’s two approaches to amalgamation that could work in NB’s “big three”.

The first example might work fine in both Saint John and Fredericton, but wouldn’t be well suited for Moncton, due to its distinct linguistic divisions.



However the second example would work perfectly fine in Moncton, as each constituent community would retain levels of autonomy and even retain their town/ city councils. This would be similar to the “Peel model” while the above example would be more like the “Halifax model”.



Saint John and Fredericton’s bedroom communities (and outlying areas) would probably vastly prefer the second option over the first option if they we’re the only two choices (and if they were given a choice at all)

However, personally, I think the first option would be the more effective model for Saint John, as it certainly worked out well for Halifax!


I may have gotten a bit out of hand with the borders for an amalgamated Moncton, but figured why not, as if amalgamation was done using the “Peel model” instead of the “Halifax model” the constituent communities of the regional municipality would retain their autonomy, distinct identities, and even retain their town/ city councils.

Plus, how cool would it be if Moncton went from being near landlocked, to having coastlines on both the Bay of Fundy and the Gulf of St. Lawrence!

[KnoxfordGuy]

I can definitely see a scenario where Fredericton surpasses Saint John in City proper population in a decade or less. CMA too in less than a generation.

City population gap in 2005 was 18,000 now it is 4,700 in 2025.

The gap in CMA population between the two was 34,000 in 2005 and it's 19,000 in 2025

[MolsonExport]

all of this combining is basically a shell game, if you really think about it. Classifying say, Okotoks, part of the Calgary CMA doesn't suddenly make Calgary bigger or greater. It's just accounting.

[MolsonExport]

Halifax's boundaries are absurdly large.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

I can definitely see a scenario where Fredericton surpasses Saint John in City proper population in a decade or less. CMA too in less than a generation.

City population gap in 2005 was 18,000 now it is 4,700 in 2025.

The gap in CMA population between the two was 34,000 in 2005 and it's 19,000 in 2025

In an ideal world IMHO, Saint John would be the size of Saskatoon, Moncton would be Regina sized and Freddy would be around Moncton's current size.
Saint John just has the historic bones that few Canadian cities can match and it's sad to see it be stagnant to slow growth for years.
*edit: I didn't realize Saint John peaked in 1971 at 89,000, and in 2025 is still 10k less! ugh

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Halifax's boundaries are absurdly large.

The goal is for the empire to gradually conquer the entire province. And eventually move on to the rest of the Maritimes.

[DavidK93]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

This is just not true. Alberta lives and dies with the oil and gas industry. I believe it was Peter Lougheed tried unsuccessfully to diversify the economy, but in the end, it did not work.

Now that we have Danielle Smith and the UCP in charge, they are doubling down on the oil and gas industry, and are actually impeding efforts to diversify the economy, especially regarding green energy.

I said they have been slowly diversifying away from O&G, which is entirely true. I also said this about Calgary not Alberta as a whole. 20 years ago 100% of my Calgary clients were O&G companies, and these days it's about 2/3rds. All of my new clients in the past 5 years or so are non oil and gas companies.

I'm not saying oil and gas isn't still the biggest industry there, only that it's not what it used to be, and it's declining. The industry generates large amounts of revenue and profits, but there has been a drop in jobs and spending, at least in Calgary. I don't know about the rest of the province.

As for Danielle Smith, I agree. She's trying hard to move Alberta back into the dark ages. Fingers crossed they can kick her to the curb next election.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

The goal is for the empire to gradually conquer the entire province. And eventually move on to the rest of the Maritimes.

I knew it!!!!

The resistance is waiting for you...........

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

all of this combining is basically a shell game, if you really think about it. Classifying say, Okotoks, part of the Calgary CMA doesn't suddenly make Calgary bigger or greater. It's just accounting.

Sure, but almost half of the Saint John CMA lives outside the city limits, and those bedroom communities don’t pay even close to their fair share towards the budget of the city at the centre of their region. Moreover, probably 80% or more of the top income earners that work in Saint John live outside the city.

This has led to these surrounding bedroom communities being very nice, well funded communities, with lower taxes, while the City of Saint John, has faced serious financial problems through decades of demographic decline and stagnation.

Meanwhile, many Saint Johners have long complained that too many people left the city and province for greener pastures in Western Canada and elsewhere, leaving the city underfunded. When in reality, a lot of those people that “left” Saint John simply moved 20 minutes down the highway to places like Rothesay, Quispamsis, and Grand Bay.

Saint John would be a much better funded city, with a far more stable economic foundation if the province forced a comprehensive amalgamation between the City of Saint John and its bedroom communities. I firmly believe Saint John would hit 200k and beyond a lot sooner if amalgamation occurs. (Regardless of whether the bedroom communities “want it” or not)

To think about it another way… think about prospective migrants (both internal and international). When they google: “Saint John population” the first result is the city proper population of 79,000, not the CMA population of 144,000. Amalgamating would change that first result to be the same as the CMA population, which in and of itself would help the city grow… as I think most people would rather live in a city with a population of 144,000 than a city of only 79,000.

That first google search result of 79,000 could be enough for a lot of people to simply say “nope” and look at other, larger options.

[Blitz]

Brampton: 783,581 (down 5,822)
Mississauga: 764.597 (down 16,707)
Kitchener: 323,917 (up 2,879)
Windsor: 269,614 (up 3,034)
Guelph: 160,760 (up 1,364)
Brantford: 123,521 (up 2,149)

[theman23]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Sure, but almost half of the Saint John CMA lives outside the city limits, and those bedroom communities don’t pay even close to their fair share towards the budget of the city at the centre of their region. Moreover, probably 80% or more of the top income earners that work in Saint John live outside the city.

This has led to these surrounding bedroom communities being very nice, well funded communities, with lower taxes, while the City of Saint John, has faced serious financial problems through decades of demographic decline and stagnation.

Meanwhile, many Saint Johners have long complained that too many people left the city and province for greener pastures in Western Canada and elsewhere, leaving the city underfunded. When in reality, a lot of those people that “left” Saint John simply moved 20 minutes down the highway to places like Rothesay, Quispamsis, and Grand Bay.

Saint John would be a much better funded city, with a far more stable economic foundation if the province forced a comprehensive amalgamation between the City of Saint John and its bedroom communities. I firmly believe Saint John would hit 200k and beyond a lot sooner if amalgamation occurs. (Regardless of whether the bedroom communities “want it” or not)

To think about it another way… think about prospective migrants (both internal and international). When they google: “Saint John population” the first result is the city proper population of 79,000, not the CMA population of 144,000. Amalgamating would change that first result to be the same as the CMA population, which in and of itself would help the city grow… as I think most people would rather live in a city with a population of 144,000 than a city of only 79,000.

That first google search result of 79,000 could be enough for a lot of people to simply say “nope” and look at other, larger options.

No, people don’t make major life decisions like this.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Halifax's boundaries are absurdly large.

It's not demographically material. The eastern 2/3 of the municipality has something like 20,000 people. The CMA extent is nothing special. Fredericton's CMA is 6,000 square kilometers. Ottawa is 8,000 square kilometers.

The Halifax CMA was undersized relative to the footprint of the suburbs around some of the borders. This is why part of Hants was added in 2021.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by theman23

No, people don’t make major life decisions like this.

You are right but the way a municipality is run and marketed does have some impact. The problem for SJ is that the core city has to upkeep the expensive older parts while wealthier residents get a bit of a free ride. The core ends up being relatively run down and expensive, but it's really the most distinctive part of the region with the most unique sort of value proposition for people relocating there. The Maritimes really 🞵🞵🞵🞵 for this. It's not universal but many historic town cores have rotted away and the towns look like they were created in the 50's.

I think "CBRM" is poorly marketed, and it often shows up as "Cape Breton" on lists. It's really Sydney, and it is only a small fraction of the geography of Cape Breton. At the end of the day it probably doesn't matter much, but some people might have the impression it's a rural area and not a town. Halifax used to have the same thing post amalgamation with the municipality creating confusing material about how it was a very diverse land area of farms and fishing villages and so on (something like the Cariboo regional district in BC) when actually it's just a normal metro area and very urban city. If Saint John did amalgamate it would be good to keep the city identity.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by theman23

No, people don’t make major life decisions like this.

Across billions of people? Seeing a population of 79,000 versus 144,000 could be enough for many people to disqualify SJ and move onto other options.

I’m not talking about people with a job offer in Saint John, but all the prospective migrants both internal and external that are looking to move to Canada/ somewhere else in a Canada.

That 79,000 figure popping up first could be disqualifying for a lot of people. Sure, 144,000 is still a small population figure too, but it’s not nearly as disqualifying as 79,000 would be for a lot of people. This isn’t really a problem for CMAs outside of NB, as I don’t think many of the CMAs (other than Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver) have such radically different figures for their city proper/ metro population.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by someone123

You are right but the way a municipality is run and marketed does have some impact. The problem for SJ is that the core city has to upkeep the expensive older parts while wealthier residents get a bit of a free ride. The core ends up being relatively run down and expensive, but it's really the most distinctive part of the region with the most unique sort of value proposition for people relocating there. The Maritimes really 🞵🞵🞵🞵 for this. It's not universal but many historic town cores have rotted away and the towns look like they were created in the 50's.

I think "CBRM" is poorly marketed, and it often shows up as "Cape Breton" on lists. It's really Sydney, and it is only a small fraction of the geography of Cape Breton. At the end of the day it probably doesn't matter much, but some people might have the impression it's a rural area and not a town. Halifax used to have the same thing post amalgamation with the municipality creating confusing material about how it was a very diverse land area of farms and fishing villages and so on (something like the Cariboo regional district in BC) when actually it's just a normal metro area and very urban city. If Saint John did amalgamate it would be good to keep the city identity.

They could call it "Greater Sydney", but that seems to automatically refer to Australia, which is already confusing internationally. I think provincial governments could, or should, play a better role in stabilizing and amalgamating municipalities, it seems unfair to have such double standards. OTOH, I think Saint John is probably a city "hemmed in" by neglect and monopolistic influence, but some of the blame must be its own.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by someone123

You are right but the way a municipality is run and marketed does have some impact. The problem for SJ is that the core city has to upkeep the expensive older parts while wealthier residents get a bit of a free ride. The core ends up being relatively run down and expensive, but it's really the most distinctive part of the region with the most unique sort of value proposition for people relocating there. The Maritimes really 🞵🞵🞵🞵 for this. It's not universal but many historic town cores have rotted away and the towns look like they were created in the 50's.

I think "CBRM" is poorly marketed, and it often shows up as "Cape Breton" on lists. It's really Sydney, and it is only a small fraction of the geography of Cape Breton. At the end of the day it probably doesn't matter much, but some people might have the impression it's a rural area and not a town. Halifax used to have the same thing post amalgamation with the municipality creating confusing material about how it was a very diverse land area of farms and fishing villages and so on (something like the Cariboo regional district in BC) when actually it's just a normal metro area and very urban city. If Saint John did amalgamate it would be good to keep the city identity.

I just googled “Sydney, NS population” and this is what was spit back out:

“The population of Sydney, Nova Scotia, was 30,960 in the 2021 Census, making it the second-largest urban center in Nova Scotia within the larger Cape Breton Regional Municipality. This figure represents the core city's population, situated on Cape Breton Island.”

Kind of an unfortunate result, considering the CBRM is designed the same way as Halifax, but when you google Halifax population it simply spits out the population figure for the HRM of over 500,000. Perhaps Sydney would have been better off leaning into the Cape Breton name, without totally wiping Sydney off the map (like Dartmouth wasn’t wiped off the map)

As for Saint John, I think we’d clearly benefit from a new, distinct name in an amalgamation situation, as it will help lessen the Saint John vs St. John’s confusion. Heck, even without amalgamation, I think we should already change the name of our Airport to something like Bay of Fundy Airport — YSJ, as it’s St John’s’s and Saint John’s airports that get mixed up the more than anything else between the two SJ’s. Still, there’s many other areas, like tourism, where the very similar names present distinct marketing challenges. St. John’s, Newfoundland’s tourism focus and brand identity is far more dominant than Saint John’s and that’s hard for SJ, NB to overcome.

All that being said, if a regional municipality was formed and given a new name, Saint John would remain Saint John, and continue to maintain its unique identity as the oldest Canadian city/ “the port city”.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Blitz

Brampton: 783,581 (down 5,822)
Mississauga: 764.597 (down 16,707)
Kitchener: 323,917 (up 2,879)
Windsor: 269,614 (up 3,034)
Guelph: 160,760 (up 1,364)
Brantford: 123,521 (up 2,149)

Considering the population figures are up to July 1, 2025, my guess is those numbers will nosedive by July 2026.