Statistics Canada Reports II

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

In my lifetime, there have been two:

The oil boom that began after the oil embargo by OPEC in 1974, which lasted roughly until the early 80s. And most recently,the oil boom from the early 2000s until 2014. From all a accounts, we will be waiting a long time before another oil boom occurs, if it ever happens again.

There have been at least three big ones, with a couple of minor ones.

1981 - was the most affecting, and Calgary actually lost population for 2-3 years.
1998 - was another good sized one, when oil was as low as $11CDN per barrel
2008 - was also a downturn, but it as combined with the financial crisis, and was more about financing of projects, etc..
2015 - was big, but not as affecting as the 1982 bust. It was also slower and more drawn out.


I think you're right in that we won't see any more booms, which is great. What is best for Alberta is a slow steady decline of oil, followed by a slow decline of natural gas.

[harls]

Originally Posted by Harrison

I reckon when the 2026 Census results are released, we will see the Edmonton CMA overtake the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA as the 5th largest in the country, given Edmonton has really narrowed Ottawa's lead over the last few years. With Carney's cuts to the Federal Public Service over the next bit, I can really see it happening.

I dunno.. I've been here for almost 20 years now and the last few years have been the craziest for construction (on both sides of the river).

It might cool off, but probably not after then census is done. They will probably stay neck and neck.

[craner]

Originally Posted by Andy6

I’m old enough to remember when Calgary was a slightly glorified Regina and not even close to Winnipeg.

Ha yeah I remember that too - when I was a young kid in the early 1970s Calgary was sub $400k.

Somewhat related - what is driving Saskatoon’s faster growth than Regina? It may be that Regina is mainly a government center which lends itself to slower, steady growth and Saskatoon is more of a free enterprise center more conducive to higher growth ?
This has not really been the case in Alberta where Calgary and Edmonton have been similar in size with similar growth rates in my lifetime. Granted Calgary has grown slightly larger and was smaller than Edmonton 30 years ago.

[MolsonExport]

I recall very well the days when Winnipeg was solidly #4. But when I was living in Edmonton (which was larger than Calgary at the time) back in the early 70s, the writing was on the wall. It was but a matter of time before it passed Winnipeg.

[craner]

Originally Posted by harls

It's out.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014801

These stats mention “2021 Boundaries”.
What CMAs have changed their boundaries since 2021 (Ottawa comes to mind) ?

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by trueviking

i posted the cma numbers from here on twitter and everyone from all the small cities and towns in southern ontario are mad.....mississauga is really mad....even the mayor piped up with a "we are not toronto!"

lmao

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I recall very well the days when Winnipeg was solidly #4. But when I was living in Edmonton (which was larger than Calgary at the time) back in the early 70s, the writing was on the wall. It was but a matter of time before it passed Winnipeg.

Winnipeg was #4 until around the mid 60s,when Ottawa-Hull (now Ottawa-Gatineau) passed us. Edmonton passed us sometime in the mid-late 70s, and Calgary passed us in 1981.

[BlackDog204]

n/m

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Harrison

Agreed with all, Edmonton was larger than Calgary up until the early 80s or so, than the Getty and Klein years happened after that. I would say those Premiers are mainly responsible for Calgary overtaking Edmonton in population, given their focus on privatization at the detriment of the public sector in Edmonton, as the capital.

Premiers have very little effect on how populations of cities or provinces play out. If that were the case, Alberta would have stagnant growth right now.

I reckon when the 2026 Census results are released, we will see the Edmonton CMA overtake the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA as the 5th largest in the country, given Edmonton has really narrowed Ottawa's lead over the last few years. With Carney's cuts to the Federal Public Service over the next bit, I can really see it happening.

That's not going to happen in the 2026 census.

Furthermore, Carney has been in office for less that 10 months. What massive cuts has he made to the Federal service? Do you have him confused with Poilievre, and his promised massive cuts to the Federal service (which played a part in the loss of his riding).

[Harrison]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Furthermore, Carney has been in office for less that 10 months. What massive cuts has he made to the Federal service? Do you have him confused with Poilievre, and his promised massive cuts to the Federal service (which played a part in the loss of his riding).

He's already started cutting and is planning to maintain that pace

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Harrison

He's already started cutting and is planning to maintain that pace

That still will not make Edmonton overtake Ottawa-Gatineau in the 2026 census. I am will to bet $1000 on it

[Architype]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't think this is really correct. It's true that car commuting was much less prevalent but there were streetcars and horses as well as ferries and the municipalities were much smaller.

A good example to illustrate this is Westmount which is a separate city from Montreal but only a few km from downtown, and was served by the streetcar. The interurban connected Vancouver with New Westminster. In Halifax there was the Dartmouth ferry and commuter rail literally called "The Suburban" running out to Rockingham/Bedford and onward. These are just some examples I know of (and I think Toronto had North York, Etobicoke, and others). It was common for a settlement to be built around some body of water and for each side to be a separate municipality.

Yes, there were streetcars, but mostly within the cities. New Westminster is an anomaly, since it already existed before Vancouver, so wasn't an actual suburb, and probably would not qualify as a commuter shed in today's terms. Another point is, streetcars were developed mostly in the 1890s, so it was still a new thing and not part of an established social pattern yet. Large scale commuting as it exists today wasn't necessary, because, unlike today, people could afford to live in the actual cities where they worked. Vancouver was full of newly built working class houses. Anyway, it would be interesting to see stats on this if they exist.

[ssiguy]

[QUOTE=craner;10539331]These stats mention “2021 Boundaries”.
What CMAs have changed their boundaries since 2021 (Ottawa comes to mind) ?[/QUOT

I think Windsor was the biggest change. It did take in most of Essex County but now it takes in all of it which, most importantly, includes Leamington-Kingsville which together have over 50k.

[Wigs]

Almost all of the focus has been on CMAs, but what about city populations?
City population, growth (2024-2025)

Toronto - 3,271,830, -8517
Montreal - 1,915,366, +4,882
Calgary - 1,612,834, +39,825
Edmonton - 1,238,295, +40,524
Ottawa (ON side only) - 1,188,114, +30,611
Winnipeg - 850,260, +8,245
Vancouver - 740,454, -8,334
Hamilton - 640,465, +7,226
Québec - 592,658, +4,699
Halifax (RGM) - 516,822, +7,831
London - 494,785, +4,730
Saskatoon - 318,067, +7,352
Regina - 263,419, +5,504
St. John's - 128,693, +1,942
Moncton - 102,378, +3,651
Saint John - 79,371, +1,080
Whitehorse - 34,129, +573
Yellowknife - 22,858, +563
Iqaluit - 8,612, +129

Source: Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0155-01 Population estimates, July 1, by census subdivision, 2021 boundaries
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/...025&referencePeriods=20240101%2C20250101

[Wigs]

some observations on city proper population growth:
It's extremely rare for Toronto and Vancouver to experience population decline. Anyone know the approximate year that last happened?

City of Edmonton narrowly exceeded City of Calgary's growth for the first time in many decades! (more significant percentage increase wise)

Winnipeg, Hamilton, Halifax all experiencing steady growth with Halifax growing the quickest of the 3 (percentage wise)

Saskatoon has really phenomenal growth. More Canadians need to check out Toon Town.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Saskatoon has really phenomenal growth. More Canadians need to check out Toon Town.

Saskatoon's rapid growth goes unnoticed. Won't be long before they'll over the 400k mark.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Wigs

It's extremely rare for Toronto and Vancouver to experience population decline. Anyone know the approximate year that last happened?

Surprisingly, not long ago in Toronto. From 2020 to 2021 a drop from 2,952,366 to 2,917,666 (estimates).

[KnoxfordGuy]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Almost all of the focus has been on CMAs, but what about city populations?
City population, growth (2024-2025)

Toronto - 3,271,830, -8517
Montreal - 1,915,366, +4,882
Calgary - 1,612,834, +39,825
Edmonton - 1,238,295, +40,524
Ottawa (ON side only) - 1,188,114, +30,611
Winnipeg - 850,260, +8,245
Vancouver - 740,454, -8,334
Hamilton - 640,465, +7,226
Québec - 592,658, +4,699
Halifax (RGM) - 516,822, +7,831
London - 494,785, +4,730
Saskatoon - 318,067, +7,352
Regina - 263,419, +5,504
St. John's - 128,693, +1,942
Moncton - 102,378, +3,651
Saint John - 79,371, +1,080
Whitehorse - 34,129, +573
Yellowknife - 22,858, +563
Iqaluit - 8,612, +129

Source: Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0155-01 Population estimates, July 1, by census subdivision, 2021 boundaries
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/...025&referencePeriods=20240101%2C20250101

Fredericton 74,655 +1629

[MolsonExport]

London city proper closing in on half a mil

[MonctonRad]

Beaubassin (an Atlantic Canadian SSP member who doesn't post in the Canada section) made this interesting post in the Atlantic Canadian Statistics Thread:

Originally Posted by Beaubassin

I believe with the last estimates from Statcan, its safe to say that the Shediac population centre has reached a population of 10k. Which means it will become the next Census Agglomeration (CA) sometime after the 2026 census. The population of the town of Shediac post local governance reform should be around 13k as of July 1st 2025. The Shediac CA will include the neighbouring municipality of Beausoleil (population ~9k) as the core is within the CSD. The newly created CA should have a population of around 22k. Cap-Acadie (pop ~11,230) does not have sufficient commuting numbers to the Shediac delineation core to be included.

Now since the newly created Shediac CA would have a commuting interchange of over 35% with the Moncton delineation core, it would be merged with Moncton CMA right away. The Shediac core would become a secondary delineation core of the Moncton CMA. So now to calculate the forward commuting flow inclusion rule to the Moncton CMA, you would include both the Moncton delineation core (Monction, Dieppe and Riverview CSDs) and the secondary delineation core (Shediac CSD). Looking at commuting numbers pre pandemic, this could allow Cap-Acadie and possibly Champdoré to be included in the Moncton CMA. This will add 22k, possibly 40k if Cap-Acadie and Champdoré have sufficient commuting numbers.

A well thought out post. I agree with him. Shediac's boundaries have recently been expanded to include adjacent communities like Scoudouc and Shediac Bridge. This will push the population of the town well above the threshold to become it's own CA. This should occur after the 2026 census.

The expanded boundaries of Shediac are contiguous with the Moncton CMA. The commuting threshold for a CA are less onerous than for a community without CA status (35% vs 50%). Shediac, once it becomes a CA will be absorbed into the Moncton CMA (including neighbouring communities that will become part of the new CA once it is created).

This means the Moncton CMA could increase by 22,000-40,000 by the 2031 census.

The Moncton CMA is currently 196,000. The new CMA population in 2031 could be 218,000-236,000 (not including any natural growth). If you include natural growth (if it continues at current levels) it is conceivable Moncton's CMA population in 2031 could be 250,000.

This feels about right. The Shediac region psychologically feels like it is part of greater Moncton anyway.