Statistics Canada Reports II

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

PEI is what Cape Breton could be if it had a healthy Agricultural sector and as I have visited the gentle Island over the last 15 years for work there is a definite increase in energy and wealth on P.E.I..

I think PEI might be the best-run province (partly easy because it's on a more "human" scale closer to voters), and it shows that it's not just about urban vs. rural with large cities being the only possible successful areas.

For rural areas, the near South Shore of NS, Annapolis Valley, and Hants/Colchester are all pretty good too. Not sure about NB or NL. It mostly happens to come down to agriculture vs. no agriculture, or beyond that having agriculture plus other economic activity (like still-working factories or tourism and a fishery). The most vulnerable areas are resource-based towns built around one operation like a pulp mill or a mine.

[Dartguard]

[QUOTE=someone123;10528603 I'm not sure the Kootenays are "treated better" than Cape Breton or have better access to infrastructure. Then again, the scale of deindustrialization in CB is rare in Canada and more akin to the Rust Belt of the USA.[/QUOTE]

Industrial Cape Breton most definitely has a Rust belt, time gone by feel to it.
The only real economic activity has been at the Membertou Reserve that does not look or feel anything like a reserve at all but a thriving urban community.
The Province has injected funds into moving the Community College campus downtown and the Hospital extension is slow dripping its way to completion.
Sadly Cape Breton's problems are cultural as all the best have left and private industry is run off the Island as quick as the "boys " can be called to educate come from a way's in the Cape Breton rules. The island is losing over 800 folks per year to natural causes and the melting continues. The West Island however is becoming a Northern California Golf paradise. Two different worlds.

[KnoxfordGuy]

I usually look forward to the CMA population estimates that come out in January, however, the numbers for this release will probably be stunted or dropping. I know we needed to reverse the crazy growth but still, eewww lol

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

I usually look forward to the CMA population estimates that come out in January, however, the numbers for this release will probably be stunted or dropping. I know we needed to reverse the crazy growth but still, eewww lol

Only some CMAs will shrink - i imagine Toronto will see a drop, with most other CMAs being basically flat.

Alberta CMAs will probably still post respectable growth.

[jc_yyc_ca]

I'm wondering if we'll actually see any drops in population for the larger CMA's given the numbers will be for July 2024->2025. Most cities will have still been growing, except maybe the last few months leading up to July. The July 2026 counts will be interesting.

[Rhb]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

I'm wondering if we'll actually see any drops in population for the larger CMA's given the numbers will be for July 2024->2025. Most cities will have still been growing, except maybe the last few months leading up to July. The July 2026 counts will be interesting.

There’s one table from Statistics Canada which breaks down last years CMA’s growth by components. Natural increase, intra and interprovincial migration, and immigration and most importantly number of non permanent residents.
Just ignore that number NPR’s everything else is roughly the same as last year to give you an idea of your CMA’s growth for July 2025.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014901

[KnoxfordGuy]

What is the population of the Quebec City-Windsor corridor now? Wikipedia has it at 18.9 million from 2011. I don't want to do the 2025 math . Anyone have recent data?

[MolsonExport]

Some estimates (nothing current, mind you) and information on the corridor are found here: https://hfr-tgf.ca/wp-content/uploads/20...eck-Nov-2022-C2P3-Conference-Toronto.pdf

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

I usually look forward to the CMA population estimates that come out in January, however, the numbers for this release will probably be stunted or dropping. I know we needed to reverse the crazy growth but still, eewww lol

The cut off date for CMA's is July 1. So in other words, the recent decline in population over the past 3 months, will not effect the estimates until next year.

[ssiguy]

Has anybody checked out the Canada Pop Clock lately?

2 years ago it was showing daily growth of over 3,000 a day and now is hovering between 10 & 20 and if recent releases are any indication, these paltry numbers are a big over estimate. Canada's population is falling very fast and probably faster than what Ottawa planned for. This nothing but good news especially for our young people who won't have to compete with cheap foreign labour all while rents drop.

Canada needs at LEAST another 200,000 person shrinkage before we can bring some form of normalcy back to our housing sector.

[MolsonExport]

as of 330pm EST, Canada's population is only up 14 people since midnight.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Has anybody checked out the Canada Pop Clock lately?

2 years ago it was showing daily growth of over 3,000 a day and now is hovering between 10 & 20 and if recent releases are any indication, these paltry numbers are a big over estimate. Canada's population is falling very fast and probably faster than what Ottawa planned for. This nothing but good news especially for our young people who won't have to compete with cheap foreign labour all while rents drop.

Canada needs at LEAST another 200,000 person shrinkage before we can bring some form of normalcy back to our housing sector.

It'll ease house prices, and at the very least, stop them from spiraling upward for the next while. I suspect some cities like Vancouver and Toronto will only see a limited pause, especially Vancouver, it'll always be expensive.

[ssiguy]

Ya, Vancouver will always be expensive but even another 20% drop would at least mean some of the outer suburbs are within reach. In Vancouver, real estate is almost a game and people have a real hard time believing that prices can actually go down. They are so use to extreme prices due to dirty money and wild speculation that they really do think it's normal.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Has anybody checked out the Canada Pop Clock lately?

2 years ago it was showing daily growth of over 3,000 a day and now is hovering between 10 & 20 and if recent releases are any indication, these paltry numbers are a big over estimate. Canada's population is falling very fast and probably faster than what Ottawa planned for. This nothing but good news especially for our young people who won't have to compete with cheap foreign labour all while rents drop.

The population clock is completely unreliable. IIRC, the clock is based on the prior provincial population census stats for preceding quarter.s Even now, it's quite conceivable (and probable) that Canada will once again lose people for the final 3 months of 2025.

In that case, the population clock should reflect that, which it is not doing.

Canada needs at LEAST another 200,000 person shrinkage before we can bring some form of normalcy back to our housing sector.

I would not place a number on how many people we should/should not have to impact housing significantly. I would be more inclined to believe Canada should accept less people here, then the norm for a couple of years, until we eventually revert back to pre-pandamic levels. A good ballpark figure should be a 1% growth annually, and since Canada's population is not growing without immigrants, we should aim for 410,000 new Canadians per year.


PS....Canada's population is not "falling very fast." The people leaving are non-permanent residents that had either temporary work permits or study visas. So really, it's a stretch to call them "Canadians." They are Indians who happen to be residing in Canada on a temporary basis.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Only some CMAs will shrink - i imagine Toronto will see a drop, with most other CMAs being basically flat.

Alberta CMAs will probably still post respectable growth.

Alberta will definitely continue to see respectable growth due to numerous factors. The main factor for Alberta leading all provinces in growth, is the fact that housing is still relatively inexpensive, compared to cities in Ontario and BC, especially considering the traditionally low unemployment rate, and relatively high paying jobs.

There is also the fact that Alberta has the youngest population, which would work favourably with birth rates, less strain on health care, and higher productivity.

This can all change depending on the damage that the Smith led UCP is inflicting on the province, specifically driving away environmental-friendly initiatives, and jobs. The UCP is doubling down on keeping all their eggs in one basket (oil and gas), rather than making attempts to diversify the economy. This could come back to haunt the province, especially when considering the long term forecasts for the oil industry.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

This can all change depending on the damage that the Smith led UCP is inflicting on the province, specifically driving away environmental-friendly initiatives, and jobs. The UCP is doubling down on keeping all their eggs in one basket (oil and gas), rather than making attempts to diversify the economy. This could come back to haunt the province, especially when considering the long term forecasts for the oil industry.

My concern as well. Alberta had a ton of solar projects set to go until the UCP put the brakes on them. Alberta is doing fairly well still, but it's despite the UCP rather than because of the UCP.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Rhb

There’s one table from Statistics Canada which breaks down last years CMA’s growth by components. Natural increase, intra and interprovincial migration, and immigration and most importantly number of non permanent residents.
Just ignore that number NPR’s everything else is roughly the same as last year to give you an idea of your CMA’s growth for July 2025.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014901

Interesting, thanks for posting.

[Rhb]

Canada’s Population Estimates- Subprovincial area’s 2025.

Release date January 14th 2026.https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal2-eng.htm

[MolsonExport]

'Somewhere to put worker bees': Why Canada's micro-condos are losing their appeal (BBC)

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

'Somewhere to put worker bees': Why Canada's micro-condos are losing their appeal (BBC)

One of the tragedies of recent years is Canada managed to have a housing investment bubble and condo construction boom without actually building much usable housing.

Similarly the nonpermanent resident boom was misallocated with a huge bump in low value Uber drivers and Tim Horton's workers which largely suppressed unskilled youth employment instead of helping in key industries, like construction or health care.