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Originally Posted by YOWetal
Yes experience counts for a lot but it looks like we will be getting the first true high speed rail in North America. Frankly world experiences elsewhere aren't worth much. They can still model what they can get and ridership and will have that as baseline for their ask I just still wonder if they are overly optimistic as you are. A more fundamental change is needed seeing the cost of car ownership and housing patterns change. We are now moving in the opposite direction. I wonder what the price is they can command. It's probably not even what the Acela commands even though it's not really high speed and shaves little off the bus. Philadephia to NYC might be $100-$200 for an hour journey. New York is more urbanized than Montreal though for sure and even Phildelphia has a better train network feeding the station both urban and suburban. Not even mentioning the two solitudes effect in Canada that makes less business and family connections between Montreal and Toronto and even Ottawa to a lesser extent.
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The price they can command is going to be related to alternatives that are available. The closest competitor for HSR is air, given that travel times will be relatively close once you take airport security and transfers into account. For business commuters, the train may be more appealing as it is generally more practical to work on a train. Airfares Toronto to Montreal are generally between $250 and $400 in normal circumstances. The train could reasonably charge something similar and be competitive with those solo travelers.
People who need a car where they are going will always be more likely to drive, but as for the others, the train would be a pretty appealing option for those who don't relish spending 5 1/2 to 6 hours on the 401. I think that is a significant chunk of current drivers. Yes, the car is going to beat the train on economics if you are 4 or 5 people travelling together, but for single travellers or couples, it starts to get pretty close, if not better when you look at the true cost of driving. You also have your captive audience of about 30% of the population who don't drive.
Personally I'm not too concerned about there being a market, even in the $200 range.
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