Alto High Speed Rail

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

It is a reasonable obsession as these things go. It fundamentally changes the dynamic.

I don't get the backing up or lost infrastrucure at Union Station argument. I assume a $60 Billion bill includes a lot of tunnelling so it would be built underneath Line 1. If we want to scale back and have a sort of high speed route which is even reasonable for especially Montreal to Ottawa it can use existing infrastructure and be done for a fraction of the cost. The talk of Laval suggests an entirely new route.

Presumably the $60B doesn't include billions more for tunneling under downtown Ottawa. I also don't think it is at all obvious that downtown is better, particularly when 90% of the city lives in the suburbs and the "downtown station" doesn't connect to any sort of regional commuter rail network.

If they were going to spend some money it would be better to increase the frequency of Line 1 back to 5 minutes and to build a proper covered connection between the train station and the LRT station.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Presumably the $60B doesn't include billions more for tunneling under downtown Ottawa. I also don't think it is at all obvious that downtown is better, particularly when 90% of the city lives in the suburbs and the "downtown station" doesn't connect to any sort of regional commuter rail network.

If they were going to spend some money it would be better to increase the frequency of Line 1 back to 5 minutes and to build a proper covered connection between the train station and the LRT station.

$60 Billion to run a 200 km train through empty forest or farmers fields is super high. That's 2X California's cost. It must include some serious grade seperation costs in the urban area. Maybe that's all in Montreal sure. Tremblay to points east probably works on the current right of way but leave the station and Tremblay you still need some expensive work to get out of the city to the west. Guess that's a 2040s problem though.

Downtown as a location is debatble sure. Nobody going from Barhaven to West Island is ever taking the train regardless of where the stations are located. The proposition is to link the cities together which requires downtown or arguable Tremblay with an LRT link. Put it somehwere in the south and it's really a white elephant.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

$60 Billion to run a 200 km train through empty forest or farmers fields is super high. That's 2X California's cost. It must include some serious grade seperation costs in the urban area. Maybe that's all in Montreal sure.

Look at what infrastructure projects of any type cost in Canada these days. Add another 5 years of inflation before construction starts plus who knows how many payoffs to special interest groups.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Tremblay to points east probably works on the current right of way but leave the station and Tremblay you still need some expensive work to get out of the city to the west. Guess that's a 2040s problem though.

It is mostly greenfield/brownfield space. Most of it is already grade separated.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

$60 Billion to run a 200 km train through empty forest or farmers fields is super high. That's 2X California's cost. It must include some serious grade seperation costs in the urban area. Maybe that's all in Montreal sure. Tremblay to points east probably works on the current right of way but leave the station and Tremblay you still need some expensive work to get out of the city to the west. Guess that's a 2040s problem though.

Not sure where you get 200 km. The $60-90B pricetag is for the entire project. The 1000 km from Toronto to Quebec City. That's all the land assembly. All the construction and grade separation. All the electrification. The trains. It's not just tunnels in Montreal. They gave to build grade separated crossings at regular intervals in rural areas so they don't piss off farmers. All of that costs money. Would be ridiculous to waste billions on moving the station in Ottawa to the core, for very little gain.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Downtown as a location is debatble sure. Nobody going from Barhaven to West Island is ever taking the train regardless of where the stations are located. The proposition is to link the cities together which requires downtown or arguable Tremblay with an LRT link. Put it somehwere in the south and it's really a white elephant.

Somebody going from Barrhaven to West Island could get on at Fallowfield and get off at Dorval.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Not sure where you get 200 km. The $60-90B pricetag is for the entire project. The 1000 km from Toronto to Quebec City. That's all the land assembly. All the construction and grade separation. All the electrification. The trains. It's not just tunnels in Montreal. They gave to build grade separated crossings at regular intervals in rural areas so they don't piss off farmers. All of that costs money. Would be ridiculous to waste billions on moving the station in Ottawa to the core, for very little gain.

Somebody going from Barrhaven to West Island could get on at Fallowfield and get off at Dorval.

I thought we are just building Montreal to Ottawa via Laval and the cost was $60-$90B. Thus neither of those stops will exist. If it's the whole cost yes we won't be seeing huge expensive time shaving measures like massive new tunnels and 1 hour Montreal to Ottawa along the current right of ways seems more likely and frankly is probably sufficient.

[J.OT13]

Putting Ottawa's lone HSR station in Barrhaven is the equivalent of the Mirabel Airport in the 1970s; it would be a huge mistake. Seems almost guaranteed they will spare no expenses to get to Downtown Montreal and Toronto, with significant tunneling (at least in Montreal) so why go with the cheapest possible option in Ottawa?

If they can get to Downtown Montreal and Toronto, but keep Tremblay in Ottawa, that's reasonable. If any of the stations end up further than what they are now, we're in Mirabel territory.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Was mostly referring to the current routing. It's straight enough. They'll need to straighten in a few places. As for closing current service? Given the current level of demand, people can do just fine with buses for a bit.

Parts of it are. Others would require slowing down to current speeds. Then there is all the freight congestion once they get onto the island. That isn't going away. Building a 5th and 6th track parallel to Kingston and Vaudreuil Subs on the Island would not be cheap or easy.

The fact is, Alto is looking at an alignment further north than the current route. The question is, which one?

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Moving the station from where it is today would be a multi-billion dollar affair. I just can't see substantial ridership gain that would justify this. Moreover, it's only justifiable if the line is running through. No way they'd accept a wye that massively slows down traffic to Montreal.

If it was only for the purpose of moving the station downtown and having to wye in and out, I agree 100%. If it was as a route to cross the river (piggybacking on the Alexandra Bridge replacement), it would make more sense. A new station downtown would save having to wye in and out of the station at Trembley if they choose to use the Alexandra Bridge.

I'm not convinced that this is what will happen, but I'm starting to wonder if J.OT13's joke actually has some truth to it. It could be a lot easier than trying to cross the river elsewhere.

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Putting Ottawa's lone HSR station in Barrhaven is the equivalent of the Mirabel Airport in the 1970s; it would be a huge mistake. Seems almost guaranteed they will spare no expenses to get to Downtown Montreal and Toronto, with significant tunneling (at least in Montreal) so why go with the cheapest possible option in Ottawa?

If they can get to Downtown Montreal and Toronto, but keep Tremblay in Ottawa, that's reasonable. If any of the stations end up further than what they are now, we're in Mirabel territory.

Who said anything about Barrhaven being the only station? I mentioned moving Trembly further south, but that was in reference to a rumour that Alto was considering moving the station to Greenboro.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I thought we are just building Montreal to Ottawa via Laval and the cost was $60-$90B. Thus neither of those stops will exist. If it's the whole cost yes we won't be seeing huge expensive time shaving measures like massive new tunnels and 1 hour Montreal to Ottawa along the current right of ways seems more likely and frankly is probably sufficient.

There's still debate on the routing. I don't think anybody can say for sure whether it's Ottawa-Montreal-Laval or Ottawa-Laval-Montreal. We'll know next Fall when the official routing is released. Or maybe even more when consultations start in January.

As for other stations not existing, you do get that this is the first phase right? Fallowfield not being in the first phase doesn't mean it will never have HSR.

Lastly, people are mixing up the list of cities that Alto said it will serve with the number of stations. I doubt any of the three large metros only have one station each.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Who said anything about Barrhaven being the only station? I mentioned moving Trembly further south, but that was in reference to a rumour that Alto was considering moving the station to Greenboro.

I must have misinterpreted something with Barrhaven. Even Greenboro though, your trading a connection to a rapid transit line with 5 minute service (one would hope by then) directly to downtown vs a line with 12 minute service requiring a second transfer. It's not much better than the situation at the airport.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

There's still debate on the routing. I don't think anybody can say for sure whether it's Ottawa-Montreal-Laval or Ottawa-Laval-Montreal. We'll know next Fall when the official routing is released. Or maybe even more when consultations start in January.

As for other stations not existing, you do get that this is the first phase right? Fallowfield not being in the first phase doesn't mean it will never have HSR.

Lastly, people are mixing up the list of cities that Alto said it will serve with the number of stations. I doubt any of the three large metros only have one station each.

Based on that field studies map, it certainly looks like they are looking for a Northern routing into Montreal.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Based on that field studies map, it certainly looks like they are looking for a Northern routing into Montreal.

They've done studies on both routes. I guess we'll find out in a few weeks to months.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I must have misinterpreted something with Barrhaven. Even Greenboro though, your trading a connection to a rapid transit line with 5 minute service (one would hope by then) directly to downtown vs a line with 12 minute service requiring a second transfer. It's not much better than the situation at the airport.

I agree that Greenboro would be much worse, but if Alto is looking to shave time on Toronto-Montreal, they might be willing to make that sacrifice. The people making these plans likely just see it as an alternate O-Train station, that is closer to the airport.

[dougvdh]

Originally Posted by roger1818

I agree that Greenboro would be much worse, but if Alto is looking to shave time on Toronto-Montreal, they might be willing to make that sacrifice. The people making these plans likely just see it as an alternate O-Train station, that is closer to the airport.

Just curious how much time we'd expect to be shaved off if they moved from Tremblay to Greenboro. We've got to be talking only a few minutes (like less than 5) of trip time between Montreal and Toronto. The difference in distance between the two routes is about 5km of track. Or if the routing uses the old PR corridor, its pretty much a wash. And at the cost of much poorer local connectivity and developing out a whole new station, and potential disruption to LRT line 2 to reconfigure the service yard and track intersection.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by dougvdh

Just curious how much time we'd expect to be shaved off if they moved from Tremblay to Greenboro. We've got to be talking only a few minutes (like less than 5) of trip time between Montreal and Toronto. The difference in distance between the two routes is about 5km of track. Or if the routing uses the old PR corridor, its pretty much a wash. And at the cost of much poorer local connectivity and developing out a whole new station, and potential disruption to LRT line 2 to reconfigure the service yard and track intersection.

I'm not sure, but I'm guessing closer to 10 minutes. It isn't just that it is a shorter route, but has fewer curves (especially on the western approach) so that they don't have to slow down so much. The rumour was a year or so ago, so hopefully it isn't true (I can't seem to find the reference).

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

There's still debate on the routing. I don't think anybody can say for sure whether it's Ottawa-Montreal-Laval or Ottawa-Laval-Montreal. We'll know next Fall when the official routing is released. Or maybe even more when consultations start in January.

As for other stations not existing, you do get that this is the first phase right? Fallowfield not being in the first phase doesn't mean it will never have HSR.

Lastly, people are mixing up the list of cities that Alto said it will serve with the number of stations. I doubt any of the three large metros only have one station each.

First phase but the only phase they are going ahead with now so moving past Ottawa to Toronto could be much much later. Now Toronto being the centre of our political universe suggests once HSR exists the pull to extend it will be strong it's not guaranteed. The line also needs to be a success and 10 years of Tremblay to Union Station is a long time.

I think you are right there will be more than one station. I hope not too many stations that slow the project down but there will be a temptation for everyone to get involved for sure. I think less than true HSR and more stops is probably where we end up. 1 hour with a stop in somewhere like Lachute and Buckinham would still be a great service and if not super commuters let actual commuters use the service with a huge boon for development in those intermediate stops.

[danduc]

For all its worth - Would the service be similar to what they have in Europe where High Speed Rail Line are closed between midnight and 5Am for track and catenary maintenance and rolling stock cleaning ? And anybody seen the proposed fare ? Dynamic pricing will certainly come into play.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by danduc

For all its worth - Would the service be similar to what they have in Europe where High Speed Rail Line are closed between midnight and 5Am for track and catenary maintenance and rolling stock cleaning ? And anybody seen the proposed fare ? Dynamic pricing will certainly come into play.

Even in a best case scenario, revenue service is probably 10-15 years in the future, so I would suspect it would be a long time before people know about pricing and maintenance schedules.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Even in a best case scenario, revenue service is probably 10-15 years in the future, so I would suspect it would be a long time before people know about pricing and maintenance schedules.

Yes and even a well thought out plan might very well be thrown out the window once it goes in service. I suspect they'll try to charge something like $200 in 2025 dollars and demand will be near zero before having to come in with a new pricing strategy. The Airport train thought they could charge $27 to save people time and had to lower prices dramatically to rescue ridership. The required subsidy would of course dwarf this they need a lot more than the non price sensitive folks currently flying to fill hourly trains on the route.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Even in a best case scenario, revenue service is probably 10-15 years in the future, so I would suspect it would be a long time before people know about pricing and maintenance schedules.

Maybe. But some basics still hold. They aren't going to deploying novel technology that has not been tried elsewhere. It's not OC Transpo after all.....

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes and even a well thought out plan might very well be thrown out the window once it goes in service. I suspect they'll try to charge something like $200 in 2025 dollars and demand will be near zero before having to come in with a new pricing strategy. The Airport train thought they could charge $27 to save people time and had to lower prices dramatically to rescue ridership. The required subsidy would of course dwarf this they need a lot more than the non price sensitive folks currently flying to fill hourly trains on the route.

The consortium members have a ton of experience developing all kinds of infrastructure internationally. They aren't a bunch of Metrolinx bureaucrats setting prices. I will be highly surprised if they haven't already modeled this to within a tenth of a percent of what they can get. Heck, they even have an airline to give them some really accurate demand and yield data.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The consortium members have a ton of experience developing all kinds of infrastructure internationally. They aren't a bunch of Metrolinx bureaucrats setting prices. I will be highly surprised if they haven't already modeled this to within a tenth of a percent of what they can get. Heck, they even have an airline to give them some really accurate demand and yield data.

It is unlikely they could model anything on the cost front at this point. There is no route, there is no design, there is no estimated travel time, there are no agreements with stakeholders, there is no decision from the government on what the subsidy will be.