YVR & Sea Island Developments Discussion II

[VancityAvgeek33]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

That's a shame, but ultimately, I think it shows that the numbers just are not there. Wait a few years until Vancouver is a bigger city with a larger market. Then YVR><TPA would work, I'm sure.

I think it’s more to do with the fact that Westjet only offered weekly flights which are hard for many reasons and Air Canada operates two times a week which probably takes more passengers than westjets service.

[nname]

Originally Posted by VancityAvgeek33

I think it’s more to do with the fact that Westjet only offered weekly flights which are hard for many reasons and Air Canada operates two times a week which probably takes more passengers than westjets service.

Well, from today's update, AC also removed YVR-TPA. Guess the route is not going well for both airlines, or AC was just adding the route to kick WS out.

AC also removed YVR-IAD again next summer, leaving UA the sole operator on the route.

Seems to have no changes for all other routes.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Apparently US air traffic controllers quitting thanks to not getting paid through the US government shutdown. I wonder if NavCan has a program to poach some of them in order to bring staffing at airports like YVR back up to strength?

NavCan has hired foreign controllers in the past. I don't think they are actively looking abroad at the moment.

This being said, Air traffic controllers are in a highly skilled trade and are therefore highly paid employees. I don't think much of the controllers in the 40 majors listed will quit. You don't quit a $200,000+ paying job.

Those controllers that are quitting or threatening to quit most likely work at smaller towers, which get paid less. So this should all be taken with a grain of salt.

Last Trump government shutdown in 2019 ended because the ATC were calling in sick and the FAA started putting restrictions into LGA, ATL, MCO etc. This one will be exactly the same. I think the shutdown is ending within a few days.

Chad Kendall from that article said it best: "Congress tends to respond when public inconvenience intersects with economic harm, and aviation is one of those sectors that’s most capable of applying that pressure".

Originally Posted by SpongeG

Will any of the flight cancellations have an affect here? they say International flights will not be affected but so many Canadians transit through the states.

No. International flights aren't affected, for legal reasons.

Remember the whole Jetblue/AMS debacle. MEX/NLU as well. US has open skies treaties with a bunch of countries it needs to abide by. If it starts restricting foreign carriers, the US DOT will look like a fool for canceling the AM/DL JV or pursuing Jetblue's push into AMS.

[s211]

Originally Posted by madog222

AC is now planning to Rouge all their 7M8s by the end of 2026, the first will start being reconfigured before the end of this year.

I wish I knew more. Otherwise, I've no sane idea why they'd degrade their hardware by going downscale like that?

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by s211

I wish I knew more. Otherwise, I've no sane idea why they'd degrade their hardware by going downscale like that?

We've discussed why here and on the Canada airport page plenty of times in the past. The move makes sense.

You can ask chatgpt as to why and it will give you the answer. I just did. It's pretty accurate. The only thing not mentioned on chatgpt is the fact that half the 7M8s at AC are ETOPS 180 certified, meaning they can fly from YVR to Hawaii. This will enable AC to open a Rouge base at YVR. That was pretty much the only reason preventing them from doing it until now. A319s/320/321s at Rouge can't do YVR-Hawaii.

The rest of the reasons are on chatgpt.

[nname]

Originally Posted by nname

Currently YVR-LGW is scheduled for longer season, for now...

In other news, F8 plan to resume YVR-YUL next summer, 1 daily red-eye. This bring F8's total at YVR to 106x weekly, beating previous record of 103x weekly I think.

Further schedule update is likely for F8, since the current plan will require the 6th plane on Sunday. So either they will need to cut some flights, or somehow find the 6th plane to add to YVR base (and add a lot of new flights).

So Flair choose to cut the Saturday flight from both LAX/SFO and keeps the GDL flight, seems like Mexico is doing much better than transborer routes.

Speaking of Mexico, YVR-MEX is now extended into summer and increase to 4x weekly.

The entire schedule out of YVR is now full with 5 planes, and 2.5 planes will operate through the night.

YVR-YYC 32x weekly
YVR-YYZ 25x weekly
YVR-YEG 23x weekly
YVR-YWG 7x weekly
YVR-YUL 7x weekly
YVR-GDL 4x weekly
YVR-MEX 4x weekly
YVR-LAX 3x weekly
YVR-SFO 3x weekly

Total: 108x weekly

There is also an occasional YVR-YWG red-eye, operates about once a month.

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

We've discussed why here and on the Canada airport page plenty of times in the past. The move makes sense.

You can ask chatgpt as to why and it will give you the answer. I just did. It's pretty accurate. The only thing not mentioned on chatgpt is the fact that half the 7M8s at AC are ETOPS 180 certified, meaning they can fly from YVR to Hawaii. This will enable AC to open a Rouge base at YVR. That was pretty much the only reason preventing them from doing it until now. A319s/320/321s at Rouge can't do YVR-Hawaii.

The rest of the reasons are on chatgpt.

Since AC now operates once weekly widebody YVR-HNL, not sure if some of the flight of the route will stay mainline while the majority of the service to Hawaii becomes Rouge...

[Johnny Aussie]

YVR’s September pax stats

Not a bad month overall

https://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/2025/09---september/traffic-update.pdf

Overall up 5.7%
Domestic up 10.5%
Int’l up 1.0%

Asia Pacific, Europe and Misc Intl all had decent growth

Asia Pacific up 12.9%
Europe up 6.5%
Misc Intl up 6.2%

Still being suppressed by Transborder down 7.9%

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

NavCan has hired foreign controllers in the past. I don't think they are actively looking abroad at the moment.

This being said, Air traffic controllers are in a highly skilled trade and are therefore highly paid employees. I don't think much of the controllers in the 40 majors listed will quit. You don't quit a $200,000+ paying job.

Those controllers that are quitting or threatening to quit most likely work at smaller towers, which get paid less. So this should all be taken with a grain of salt.

Last Trump government shutdown in 2019 ended because the ATC were calling in sick and the FAA started putting restrictions into LGA, ATL, MCO etc. This one will be exactly the same. I think the shutdown is ending within a few days.

Chad Kendall from that article said it best: "Congress tends to respond when public inconvenience intersects with economic harm, and aviation is one of those sectors that’s most capable of applying that pressure".

Surprise surprise...

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/government-shutdown-end-trump-11-13-25

[Johnny Aussie]

Good to see another increase… perhaps getting closer to a year round service

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/251114-acnov26kix

Air Canada in recent days gradually extended schedule listing into November 2026. For November 2026 (25OCT26 – 29NOV26), the carrier’s Vancouver – Osaka Kansai route is currently listed as 4 weekly flights, which is an increase from 3 weekly in November 2025.

AC023 YVR1330 – 1740+1KIX 789 x246
AC024 KIX1925 – 1135YVR 789 x357

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

So Flair choose to cut the Saturday flight from both LAX/SFO and keeps the GDL flight, seems like Mexico is doing much better than transborer routes.

Speaking of Mexico, YVR-MEX is now extended into summer and increase to 4x weekly

The latest stats certainly indicate everything is doing better than Transborder

For Sept YVR Transborder was down 7.9% (as I posted above)

Not as bad as some of the other Canadian airports:

YYC down 11.7%, YUL down 13.4%, YWG down 19.2%, YEG down 22.2%

Hard to tell about YYZ as their pax stats info isn’t very well presented

But the Transborder sector certainly a big drag on most airports

YVR still provides by far the best detail for its monthly numbers

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

The latest stats certainly indicate everything is doing better than Transborder

For Sept YVR Transborder was down 7.9% (as I posted above)

Not as bad as some of the other Canadian airports:

I wonder if people flying to Seattle to make connections to flights to Asia is one of the reasons for the more modest drop in YVR transborder traffic. I don't think there's a real equivalent to for airports "back east".

[Johnny Aussie]

^ perhaps

Also, Vancouver still had a huge cruise ship season. Americans continue to come up in droves.
A small decrease from the prior year which was a record breaking year anyway. So probably US origin traffic still quite high.
Perhaps other cities have seen a dip in US origin traffic as well?

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news...cline-from-record-breaking-previous-year

And the Port of Vancouver expecting a huge increase next year:

“If you’re looking at the big, major cruise lines who want to focus on Alaska, the demand is there, and they continue to use Vancouver as a premium destination,” Madiwal said.

According to Madiwal, the Port Authority forecasts about 355 cruise ships and about 1.4 million passengers in B.C. next year, an 18 per cent increase.

“Next year, we’re going to see almost 66 days with three ships in the port,” he said, noting that about 15,000 people pass through Canada Place on an average three-cruise-ship day

Also, if you look at the Rocky Mountaineer / Alaska Cruise tours (VERY popular with Aussies too!) you see an increasing number of tours both originating and ending in Vancouver as opposed to one ways through the Rockies. Over to Banff - up to Jasper then return to Vancouver

[nname]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

I wonder if people flying to Seattle to make connections to flights to Asia is one of the reasons for the more modest drop in YVR transborder traffic. I don't think there's a real equivalent to for airports "back east".

I think it was due to the big transborder expansion this year from AC, with new route to BNA, RDU, TPA, and big increase to AUS. There were also some modest increase from WS as well, although most were cut back later in the season.

If someone want to travel out of SEA, they'll most likely drive there, instead of flying there.

[VancityAvgeek33]

Does anyone know if air Canada will announce a new long haul flight from Vancouver in December? Maybe more Europe routes or Asia?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

I think it was due to the big transborder expansion this year from AC, with new route to BNA, RDU, TPA, and big increase to AUS. There were also some modest increase from WS as well, although most were cut back later in the season.

Seems like a combo of a few factors. I think other cities in Canada had some pretty decent bumps in capacity as well.

Looking at next summer with AC pulling YVR-TPA that does give a Tuesday and Saturday gap

BNA ops 2467
AUS 13457
RDU 135

MIA 1357 still sharing a max with YQB 246

And CUN 57 and PVR 6 just the weekends still

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by nname

If someone want to travel out of SEA, they'll most likely drive there, instead of flying there.

I tried the drive thing and paid through the nose for parking.

I tried the bus thing and it was still a nontrivial amount of change and we had to schlep all our bags off the bus and dicker around in customs for almost half an hour and then schlep them back on again.

Next time I'm flying OUT of Seattle, I'll fly TO Seattle.

[Glow Fun City]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

I tried the drive thing and paid through the nose for parking.

I tried the bus thing and it was still a nontrivial amount of change and we had to schlep all our bags off the bus and dicker around in customs for almost half an hour and then schlep them back on again.

Next time I'm flying OUT of Seattle, I'll fly TO Seattle.

Train is way better… you clear immigration in Vancouver before you leave. They come on board at the border for a quick passport check, only a ten minute stop and you don’t have to leave your seat.

Sadly there’s only two trains per day, but hopefully that will increase to five in the next few years…

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Glow Fun City

Train is way better… you clear immigration in Vancouver before you leave. They come on board at the border for a quick passport check, only a ten minute stop and you don’t have to leave your seat.

Sadly there’s only two trains per day, but hopefully that will increase to five in the next few years…

Good point.

I did look into the train option for one of the flights I was taking and their schedules were incompatible without an overnight hotel stay.

[Johnny Aussie]

Some minor CX revisions… this list would have taken him awhile to compile - up to 18 weekly again next spring

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/251117-cxnw25

Hong Kong – Vancouver Service operates up to 14 weekly, except
26OCT25 – 22NOV25 11 – 12 weekly
23NOV25 – 29NOV25 10 weekly
18JAN26 – 24JAN26 13 weekly
25JAN26 – 31JAN26 11 weekly
01MAR26 – 21MAR26 11 weekly
22MAR26 – 28MAR26 18 weekly

Updated already

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/251118-cxns26ca

Hong Kong – Vancouver eff 30MAR26 Increase from 14 to 17 weekly
CX888 HKG0045 – 2125-1YVR 359 D
CX814 HKG1105 – 0740YVR 359 135
CX810 HKG1555 – 1240YVR 359 D

CX865 YVR0030 – 0535+1HKG 359 D
CX815 YVR0915 – 1420+1HKG 359 135
CX867 YVR1410 – 1930+1HKG 359 D

[VancityAvgeek33]

I think we main gain Dubai back soon! Air Canada and Emirates will expand there partnership. Maybe emirates can give Vancouver a try on there metal!