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  #4361  
Old Posted Sep 20, 2025, 3:54 PM
Northern Light Northern Light is offline
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Originally Posted by shappy View Post
The superiority schtick is a bit much...
It has nothing to do with superiority.

Its about accepted norms in most of the developed world, in most of Europe or more developed cities in Asia, such levels of violence would never be tolerated.

That you read that as patronizing instead of aghast is the definition of the problem. You're feeling like its ok that its the way that it is, and how dare someone suggest otherwise; where you should be thinking "How have I failed a person that I have allowed this to happen"

****

Toronto has plenty of flaws and I show no mercy to them. If you go and visit my home on the net under this pseudonym, Urban Toronto, you'll see me take the piss out of plenty of bureaucrats, Federal, Provincial and Municipal for their shortcomings.

You'll also realize, I don't just armchair quarterback. I help draft policy, and legislation, I actively lobby for change, I put my money where my mouth is and make it happen.

I simply don't accept apathy as a life choice, for anyone, ever.
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  #4362  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2025, 6:47 PM
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Meh, who cares, let the gangsters take each other out. Saves the police and the taxpayers the trouble.

And gangsters are all men too. Less men = less violence against women.
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  #4363  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2025, 5:00 AM
Velvet_Highground Velvet_Highground is offline
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America is dealing with the consequences of a poorly managed economic crisis that partly was related to rapid technological growth and the consequences of consumerism going out of control. America going from the world’s largest energy exporter to largest energy importer to the largest energy exporter due to new technology exploiting shale gas. There’s a lot to be said for Americas unhealthy relationship with the oil, gas and coal industries and consequences to its exploitation on the land itself.

America went through a series of severe social economic and social shocks in the 60’s and 70’s and the response in the national landscape in the 80’s was pretty ugly cutting subsidies to the poor including food and mental health assistance bares its marks. The boom years of the 90’s and 2000’s produced a lot of money but it kind of took the changes post financial crisis of 2008 to really make a major reinvestment in American cities and older industrial cities in southern southern or border states have had a harder time making strides.

Obviously over the past 6 months there has essentially vandalism of large areas of government going on but US is a very large country there’s a lot of progress that’s been made there’s significant powers the states have that have generally been upheld by courts through we are close to constitutional crisis over massive political overreach and worse. America is a large young country that was founded with its own identity and based on ideals not a traditional nation state. For example members of the British Commonwealth for example have their close relationship with Britain and its Monarchy to draw upon and it’s generally been a strength. America is in many ways a social experiment in democratic government and its identity has been fluid as ever changing based on waves of immigration.

The period from the 20’s to the 70’s saw a major drop in immigration for the first time in the nations history as ugly unfinished business from the civil war reared its head in the form of expression that took on a pseudoscientific and eugenic bent. The laws were relaxed as immigrant groups like the Irish and Italian became in fact and seen as increasingly Americanized and accepted. The Cold War cut immigrants from central and Eastern Europe while deaths from the world wars left Western Europe lacking its usual overpopulation issues to the same degree. While urbanization and modernization saw birth rates decline and age of conception rise with education and rising in the class system.

There’s a false conflation between our current broken immigration system that due to a shift in profit making as energy costs rose to a Wall Street share price driven profit model from traditional production of goods as the main source of revenue. The ever downward pressures on labor in America I think come from a misconception that the closing of the frontier and the shifting in pattern of development towards something slower and more sustainable was somehow a failing. That the people able to exploit by modern means virgin land by a first world country were able to do great things then and opportunities being less or different is a failure of society rather than a maturing society.

There’s EU acting as a landing ground for post war and post colonial states in many ways has been able to flourish in the way it has because its part of the the American led Western Sphere of Influence. Lack of a strong central federal government which would have been hard 20 years ago and looks impossible now as well as a large first rate military allow for a better ability to focus on delivering good governance. Not that these nations don’t have their own long standing traditions of good governance and the consequences of bad going back centuries or more.

America is having a hard time dealing with the toxic effects of the relationship between media and advertising while we face the digital revolution. Lack of investment in education perhaps imo in part to the events of the 60’s have left modern society with a worse understanding of history and civics than previous generations. Modern issues of children growing up online we are just beginning to deal with as a part of western civilization along side everyone else.


As per Detroit.gov

Homicides

2024 through Q3 155

2025 through Q3 132

% change -15%

Nonfatal Shootings

2024 through Q3 469

2025 through Q3 366

-22%

Carjackings

2024 through Q3 90

2025 through Q3 64

-29%

Carjackings have dropped nearly 90% since 2013, a drop that corresponds closely to the creation and spread of Project Green Light businesses in the city, which now number more than 1,000

Carjackings

2013 - 537

2025 - 64

% change -88%

https://detroitmi.gov/news/3rd-quarter-n...ropping-far-beyond-historic-2024-results
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  #4364  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2025, 2:59 PM
Northern Light Northern Light is offline
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^^^ That's quite the elaborate intro to the latest stats from Detroit!

Toronto Update:

32 Homicides YTD, compared with 73 at this time last year. - 56%

Annualized at current rate: 42 homicides, homicide rate (per 100,000) 1.3

Total Shootings: (includes any instance of firearm use, not limited to shots that hit people)

210 vs 366 last year; -42%
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  #4365  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2025, 6:18 PM
Velvet_Highground Velvet_Highground is offline
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I posted the bare bones Detroit stats over in a Reddit discussion on the topic. Hesitated to post over here as there really isn’t anything to celebrate other than good progress. At least until we can keep these trends going for another 5-10 years. I would hope when discussing one of the most pressing issues of our time my thoughts wouldn’t come off as boiler plate. Though to properly sus out my rumination’s would take essay format not post quick reply. Was more just dropping large bullet points in essentially broad stokes while trying to weave in greater structural considerations that get lost in the sauce of the debate.

Asides aside if Detroit ends the year with something like 176.187 homicides (heh .187) and a rate of ~27.01 I think it’s something to be proud of as a milestone if not an outcome. Looking at the progress other Great Lakes cities like Buffalo for example have reduced their 2024 rate down to ~12 per 100k shows theirs is potential to create the safer communities all Americans deserve.
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  #4366  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2025, 6:28 PM
TempleGuy1000 TempleGuy1000 is offline
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Philadelphia has had 171 homicides. That currently puts it at 10.8 per 100k. To extrapolate the numbers to the end of the year, it should be around 220 with a rate somewhere between 13 or 14 per 100k.
https://www.phillypolice.com/crime-data/crime-statistics/
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  #4367  
Old Posted Oct 23, 2025, 1:55 AM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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An interesting article about homicide clearance rates in Philadelphia.

At 91% this year, compared to only 40% a few years ago.

Attributed among other things to improved technology (and tracking, which obviously has downsides) but mostly just to the postive feedback loop that comes from less crime. The detectives devoted to homicides have a lot more bandwidth and fewer cases to handle.

It's also enabling them to go back to cold cases and clear those. I'm strongly convinced that many of our inner cities have the equivalent of a handful of serial killers who do a disproportionate amount of the killing (for gangs) and often evade capture. As clearance improves, the chances these people remain free decreases...which creates upward momentum in feelings of safety etc as they're likely responsible for a inordinate amount of the violent crime that does exist, at least.

To me, psychologically at least, Philly feels ALOT safer than it has in years, if not decades. Maybe that's naivete but I don't think so. Hopefully this trend has enough momentum to continue even in the event the economy enters a downturn, which is very likely already the case.

https://www.npr.org/2025/10/21/nx-s1-558...,that%20compare%20to%20recent%20years%3F
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  #4368  
Old Posted Oct 23, 2025, 2:21 AM
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It's interesting to see just how dramatically murder/crime rates have dropped this year - a bit of good news to break up the rest of the doom & gloom. And it's not just in the US either, Canadian cities have been experiencing the same thing, and it seems to be the case at least in parts of Europe as well.

Given the breadth of this trend, there's no government or policy that can take credit; while it's hard to pinpoint any major positive social or economic change that's happened in the past year. On the contrary, this is all happening against a backdrop of growing economic & political instability - the type of environment that normally tends to correlate with increases to crime rates. So, what gives? Are there any prevailing theories?
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  #4369  
Old Posted Nov 5, 2025, 6:06 AM
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Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
It's interesting to see just how dramatically murder/crime rates have dropped this year - a bit of good news to break up the rest of the doom & gloom. And it's not just in the US either, Canadian cities have been experiencing the same thing, and it seems to be the case at least in parts of Europe as well.

Given the breadth of this trend, there's no government or policy that can take credit; while it's hard to pinpoint any major positive social or economic change that's happened in the past year. On the contrary, this is all happening against a backdrop of growing economic & political instability - the type of environment that normally tends to correlate with increases to crime rates. So, what gives? Are there any prevailing theories?
Rapidly aging population or the mass adoption of AI.
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  #4370  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2025, 4:33 AM
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Basically Millennials and Gen Z are better educated and behaved, and hopefully improving with each new generation. We Gen Xers were the most criminal generation since medieval times by some measures, but hey we were brought up by Boomers. The days of going out after the pub and stabbing a few old ladies for their jewellery are past me now, as I totter into old age and railway documentaries.

Throw in increased surveillance and forensic technology through the ages, and would-be criminals are put off.

Last edited by muppet; Nov 6, 2025 at 5:00 AM.
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  #4371  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2025, 4:42 AM
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London is currently trending on social media following Trump's exhaltation that our crime is through the roof, thanks to our mayor of the last decade -Sadiq Khan. Following Mamdani's win in NYC -a fellow Muslim - "#London/ NYC has fallen" is a thing now, with the right wing brigade purporting life in our city is unlivable, rife with street and sex crime, sharia law and covered up women, which NYC will follow suit.

In reality murders YTD is 76, continuing a downward trend. Pop 9.2 million (city proper).

Unofficially it's 85 for the last 12 months, which would put the homicide rate at 0.92 per 100,000 -lower than Finland, Tonga, Iceland, or New Zealand. 20% lower than Sweden or Copenhagen (world's most livable city), almost 3x lower than Berlin. Violent crime and sex crime has also fallen, now significantly lower than the UK average, so technically safer on the person to be in London than step outside it.

Crime rate overall is still slightly higher than the rest of the UK, by 10%, but it's largely skewed by financial/ digital crime. The most crime riddled place in the UK happens to be the city's financial district, due to the online gambling that props up so many bankers and institutions. Also Stratford, thanks to the swanky Westfield megamall where shoplifting is quite the hobby.

Robbery, although falling, is still a scourge, as is bike theft - so common people don't even bother reporting it (police are useless even if you trace it). Notably snatched/ pickpocketed watches over 10K has become a new currency to park money in, due to ease of transportation and smuggling.

Last edited by muppet; Nov 6, 2025 at 5:14 AM.
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  #4372  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2025, 7:02 PM
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We have provisional figures for São Paulo state (Pop. 46 million):

Homicides
2024 (Jan-Set): 1,860
2025 (Jan-Set): 1,819

Latrocínios (robbery followed by murder)
2024 (Jan-Set): 131
2025 (Jan-Set): 102

It's projecting 2,400 homicides for the whole year or 5.2 homicides/100,000 inh. Despite the common sense, SP holds the lowest rate for the past 15 years or so.
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  #4373  
Old Posted Nov 6, 2025, 7:10 PM
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San Francisco as of 11/2/25
2024 YTD: 30
2025 YTD: 22
Change: -27%
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  #4374  
Old Posted Nov 8, 2025, 12:57 AM
Velvet_Highground Velvet_Highground is offline
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Originally Posted by muppet View Post
Basically Millennials and Gen Z are better educated and behaved, and hopefully improving with each new generation. We Gen Xers were the most criminal generation since medieval times by some measures, but hey we were brought up by Boomers. The days of going out after the pub and stabbing a few old ladies for their jewellery are past me now, as I totter into old age and railway documentaries.

Throw in increased surveillance and forensic technology through the ages, and would-be criminals are put off.
I don’t think that the effects of WW1 as well as the post war chaos and political violence which were amplified by the Great Depression factor into the unbelievably violent nature of WW2. What the deaths of over 100 million people and the effects that the killing and the victims of the killing had on society is greatly underestimated I believe.

Mental health and modernization is another aspect of society that is neglected for example the rates of alcoholism post civil war in the US were outrageous not to mention opiate addiction. The technology of the civil war being so far ahead of tactics especially at the beginning led to the grievous losses of life. The low velocity solid lead bullets didn’t chip bone like metal jacket of a bullet will do today if it clips a bone, it resulted in bones being shattered and the high amount of amputations.

Obviously coming into the modern era it wasn’t just America or the West that suffered through such grievous trauma during this period of transition. The Taiping Rebellion in China is considered by many to be perhaps the bloodiest war in history with 30-50 million dead 5-10% of the national population.

The boomers had issues with their parents many of who especially those who fought in the Pacific saw some of the most horrific fighting of all times. Alcoholism, PTSD and its subsequent effects such as anger, depression and flashbacks were mostly suffered through in silence.

There’s a great book by the son of Eugene Sledge the author of With the Old Breed of HBO’s The Pacific fame. W. Henry Sledge took his father’s notes from his drafts and wrote a remastered version of With the Old Breed. He has a great antidote about what it was like to be the son of a veteran who saw fighting of the type that was common across WW2. His brother wanted to watch Patton when it was playing on TV and convinced his dad that it was well done as the beginning sequence of artillery bombardment played out Eugene had a flashback and broke down rushing into the kitchen and punching the refrigerator over and over. His wife rushed in and called him down but the sound of artillery brought him right back and he went to his coping method in the foxhole of just pounding on whatever was in front of him I suppose.

Obviously the question of what triggers violence or mental health issues via trauma are much more complicated and nuanced. However the great wars of the 20th century and social engineering to attempt to fix aspects of the problem seem to have caused more severe consequences or new consequences. Prohibition in America is one of the most famous but by far not alone.

One could look at social problems in a European but non western nation like Russia and look at the extreme drug abuse issues like with heroin substitutes like Krocodil or the sort of MDMA substitute of Meow and the horrific consequences to the user. The social problems relating to collectivization the Holodomor, the Great Terror and then WW2 are well known one could extrapolate mass social trauma towards issues with mental health, alcohol & drug abuse and generational consequences.

I don’t like to point at a certain generation or group of people when discussing violence mental health issues and violence. I think it’s dangerous in terms of trying to understand it problem and finding a solution. Maslow's hierarchy of needs has provided insight into the increase in political radicalization in the documentary Dear Kelly by Andrew Callaghan. The parallels between economic hardship and political radicalization and mental instability are hard to miss when you look at the situation under that light.

We have examples of mass trauma and inter communal violence across the latter half of the 20th century in many major countries colonial wars in Europe, wars like Korea and Vietnam in America (and others). The Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution in China, the partition of the British Raj in India and Pakistan as well as global instability and a innumerable civil wars, coups and political and social instability across the world during the Cold War.

Bad things happening are not new to humanity but the level of violence and death arguably are and the interconnectivity and sharing of information is something new. Mass media and entertainment are an interesting X factor to consider as an adjacent component to our lives. I would still argue that we live in one of the best times ever to be alive but the game setting for mental health perhaps is set on high and we have just begun to acknowledge PTSD from war let alone from say generational domestic violence and other issues.
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  #4375  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2025, 7:18 AM
ilcapo ilcapo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
We have provisional figures for São Paulo state (Pop. 46 million):

Homicides
2024 (Jan-Set): 1,860
2025 (Jan-Set): 1,819

Latrocínios (robbery followed by murder)
2024 (Jan-Set): 131
2025 (Jan-Set): 102

It's projecting 2,400 homicides for the whole year or 5.2 homicides/100,000 inh. Despite the common sense, SP holds the lowest rate for the past 15 years or so.
For such a huge population it would be interesting to see how its split between the boroughs/areas/cities
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  #4376  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2025, 3:12 PM
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Toronto just went the last month without a murder, still at 35 for the year.

Last edited by Nite; Nov 18, 2025 at 3:29 PM.
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  #4377  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2025, 10:25 PM
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San Francisco as of 12/14/25
2024 YTD: 33
2025 YTD: 28
Change: -15%
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  #4378  
Old Posted Jan 1, 2026, 8:23 PM
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This is a positive trend.

1965 was a long time ago.

Quote:
Chicago records fewest killings since 1965


The number of murders in Chicago decreased from 587 in 2024 to 416 last year, a nearly 30% drop, according to Chicago police data. It’s the lowest total since 1965 and the first time in a decade the city has had fewer than 500 slayings in a year.

Crime has been declining in Chicago after it peaked during the pandemic in 2021.

As of Dec. 28, shootings had fallen 35% from 2024, robberies were down 36% and aggravated batteries had dipped 11%, police data shows.
Source: https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2026/...e-shooting-president-trump-mayor-johnson



And for reference, Sun-times data recorded 795 homicides in 2021, so it has been a nearly 50% reduction from the pandemic peak over the past 4 years.

What's more, the 5 most violent community areas on the west side and the 5 most violent on the Southside combined for 198 homicides last year. In 2021, those same 10 areas combined for 408 homicides.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Jan 1, 2026 at 8:52 PM.
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  #4379  
Old Posted Jan 1, 2026, 9:00 PM
Crawford Crawford is online now
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I'm sorry, but that headline is mistaken. Our Dear POTUS today:

"I took the National Guard out of Chicago but they will be back because crime is already going WAY UP in that dirty city with its Communist mayor".

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  #4380  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2026, 5:39 AM
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As at December 29th, Toronto had 40 homicides for the year. - 52.9% from the year prior.
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