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  #3521  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 2:28 PM
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Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy View Post
From the Atlantic stats thread. A response to me saying I thought NB would have started shrinking again. The defeatist mindset of the maritimes is so ingrained.
Thanks for this. First time I've seen the Q3 numbers.

Crazy to think that Ontario has grown by only 2,700 people in the last 6 months.

And we know given traditional population trends this likely means that the GTA is declining in population with the limited population growth mostly happening in smaller centres.

No wonder real estate and rents are in freefall in the city.

2025 CMA population estimates are going to be very interesting.
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  #3522  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 2:35 PM
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Ontario is up by only 2.7K over the quarter? Yikes. Just when so many condos and apartments are coming on the market.

And BC is down by 2K.
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  #3523  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 2:46 PM
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
Ontario is up by only 2.7K over the quarter? Yikes. Just when so many condos and apartments are coming on the market.

And BC is down by 2K.
It is important to note that this is a temporary situation, driven entirely by the huge decline in non-permanent residents. Permanent immigration levels are almost as high, interprovincial outflows are still net negative but have declined, actually. This is all due to a huge outflow of temporary residents--Ontario had a net gain of more than 360,000 temporary immigrants in 2023/24, and in 2024/25 the estimate was a net loss of nearly 50,000.
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  #3524  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 3:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Drybrain View Post
It is important to note that this is a temporary situation, driven entirely by the huge decline in non-permanent residents. Permanent immigration levels are almost as high, interprovincial outflows are still net negative but have declined, actually. This is all due to a huge outflow of temporary residents--Ontario had a net gain of more than 360,000 temporary immigrants in 2023/24, and in 2024/25 the estimate was a net loss of nearly 50,000.
Agreed. Growth for Canada in general is slow, and this is mostly an aberration, just like the past two years were mostly an aberration the other way.. Things will slowly pick up again, we won't see the red hot growth of the last two years, but back to good steady growth.
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  #3525  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 3:52 PM
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We should be looking at 3-year rolling averages, as these represent trends better. When averaged out, we are probably on trend with the 10 year average of population growth.

Normalizing non-permanent resident numbers is just a post-pandemic correction to resume previous growth trends. It's also necessary to reduce the rising anti-migrant sentiment among the public, which would only harm Canada in the long run.
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  #3526  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 3:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Drybrain View Post
—and at this point I still don’t think Calgary is on the list at all. Its commercial streets are still just too few in number, and their activity levels too intermittent and modest. And those urban pockets are separated by big dead zones of near-zero activity. Again, I do sense that this is changing more rapidly now than in the past, and this discussion will probably look different within a few years.
I think Calgary deserves to be on the list. Maybe I'm looking at it from a Calgarian point of view with the experience of living here, but my experience with other mid cities is they are also hit and miss.

As for the urban pockets separated by large dead zones, I'm assuming you're referring to Inglewood and Bridgeland to downtown? I can see that, though. the gap to Bridgeland is disappearing recently with new builds right across the river from downtown, but is still a work in progress. Inglewood's kind of on its own island and will be for a while.
Other urban pockets like Beltline, Kensington, Mission, don't really have any dead zones between them and downtown, though they did at one time.

Just for kicks here is a pic looking down 10th ave, which was always a good sized gap between Beltline and downtown, from today compared 10 years ago and 18 years ago. 18 years ago it looked like Gary Indiana! lol.


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  #3527  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 4:00 PM
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Originally Posted by kora View Post
We should be looking at 3-year rolling averages, as these represent trends better. When averaged out, we are probably on trend with the 10 year average of population growth.

Normalizing non-permanent resident numbers is just a post-pandemic correction to resume previous growth trends. It's also necessary to reduce the rising anti-migrant sentiment among the public, which would only harm Canada in the long run.
We'll get as good idea of where things are at in the 2026 census. Some of the dust will be settled by then.
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  #3528  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 4:25 PM
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
Ontario is up by only 2.7K over the quarter? Yikes. Just when so many condos and apartments are coming on the market.

And BC is down by 2K.
Over two quarters.
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  #3529  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 4:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Drybrain View Post
And I’m certain that Halifax does, despite the large size discrepancy. I really would place Halifax very high in the rankings of mid cities in this regard—and at this point I still don’t think Calgary is on the list at all.
Halifax has an unusual extent of pedestrian-oriented mixed-use areas relative to the metro area's population size. You see this outside of downtown in Portland St in Dartmouth, Quinpool Rd, Almon, or Dutch Village Rd.

The Victorian-era footprint where you find pedestrian-oriented (built up to the street with small shops, etc.) buildings built prior to 1880 or so (not "streetcar suburbs") is also unusually large. As late as 1881, Halifax was the 4th largest city in Canada (below only Montreal, Toronto, and Quebec City). You can see the legacy of this today if you walk out to an area like Tower Rd and look at the ornate 1870's-era townhouses. To add to that base, the city now has one of the highest rates of urban infill.
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  #3530  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 4:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere View Post
Over two quarters.
yikes yikes.
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  #3531  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 4:43 PM
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Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca View Post
Just for kicks here is a pic looking down 10th ave, which was always a good sized gap between Beltline and downtown, from today compared 10 years ago and 18 years ago. 18 years ago it looked like Gary Indiana! lol.
That is wild. My late grandmother used to live close to where these photos were taken (she lived in Hull Estates at 12 Ave SW & 6 St SW). Most years as a kid and teenager I would have visited her once or twice and been generally in this area. Now, it has probably been about 20 years since I was last in that part of Calgary and, as things usually go, the old conditions have stuck in my mind as what this area looks like. Preserved in amber, if you will. Thrilled to see it has changed so much.
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  #3532  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 4:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Drybrain View Post
We should get a new civic slogan: "Technically still affordable."


It is really amazing that so many very small cities like Brantford, Guelph, Peterborough and Barrie are less affordable than Halifax, Calgary, Ottawa and even Montreal. I understand why, it's just striking to see it so starkly represented. Like, you can live in Montreal, one of the greatest cities in North America. Or, for more money, you can live in Barrie. (That's not a dig on Barrie, which is a nice place, but you know.)
This is kind of a minor, local nitpick, but a Southern Ontarian would know that these cities aren't all the same.

Guelph is the most valuable. It's the most vibrant, it has a big university and a bohemian scene, it has good schools, etc. It's also within easy commuting distance not only of the Western GTA but also Kitchener-Waterloo and Hamilton.

Barrie is only close to Toronto. It doesn't have great bones, but it's close to recreational opportunities in Muskoka and along Georgian Bay. A lot of people I knew who moved to Barrie moved there because they liked to do outdoor stuff.

Brantford is pretty sad sack. It is within commuting range of Hamilton and KWC.

Peterborough is the least accessible to big city opportunities, being only close to the Eastern side of the GTA which is the "wrong side" of the sprawl for high-paying jobs. I'd say it's 2nd after Guelph in terms of vibrancy/bones (I'd say it's a distant 2nd - it's definitely rougher around the edges than Guelph) and 2nd after Barrie in terms of outdoorsy access.

In terms of value, I'd rank it:

Guelph
Barrie
Peterborough/Brantford (depending on what you value).

There were some places even further out that are even rougher around the edges that saw a huge home price spike after Covid, like Belleville, and these places are seeing their home prices crash back to earth.
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  #3533  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 5:21 PM
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Originally Posted by hipster duck View Post
This is kind of a minor, local nitpick, but a Southern Ontarian would know that these cities aren't all the same.
To be fair though I think the argument was about the contrast in real estate prices, and Brantford being more expensive than those out of province cities is even starker than Guelph.

Guelph is nice and I like the farming areas around there. There are also more trains around Ontario than most of Canada. However, I'm not sure I'd call a Guelph-GTA or Guelph-Hamilton commute easy (at least not in Calgary or Halifax terms, and going from a 50 minute to a 10 minute commute with calmer traffic is a huge quality of life adjustment).

Montreal is a bit of a special case and moving to Quebec really feels like moving someplace different even though it's just a few hours away. The job opportunities for an English speaker won't match what you'd expect given the city's size and income levels.

There really was an "arbitrage" opportunity with Halifax around the covid era where the price gap in housing was huge and people flooded in. I think Halifax and Calgary are both still sort of underpriced, and there's still a substantial "reputation gap" for Halifax, although all of this has narrowed compared to a few years ago. Calgary will tend to draw from the western half of the country and Halifax will tend to draw from the eastern half (less from Quebec).
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  #3534  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 5:29 PM
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It is strange how Calgary's prices aren't stratospheric, given how long and how fast it has been growing. I guess it really is "Can-do" on housing.
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  #3535  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 5:42 PM
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
It is strange how Calgary's prices aren't stratospheric, given how long and how fast it has been growing. I guess it really is "Can-do" on housing.
No limits on suburban growth, limited costs placed on new development, and an efficient and quick permitting process. Even with wildly expensive housing developers can quickly deliver large amounts of housing.
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  #3536  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 5:49 PM
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Originally Posted by hipster duck View Post
This is kind of a minor, local nitpick, but a Southern Ontarian would know that these cities aren't all the same.
Totally fair, I know Guelph a bit but not the others. Just striking to think that they're all pricier than Montreal!
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  #3537  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 5:57 PM
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Originally Posted by hipster duck View Post
This is kind of a minor, local nitpick, but a Southern Ontarian would know that these cities aren't all the same.

Guelph is the most valuable. It's the most vibrant, it has a big university and a bohemian scene, it has good schools, etc. It's also within easy commuting distance not only of the Western GTA but also Kitchener-Waterloo and Hamilton.

Barrie is only close to Toronto. It doesn't have great bones, but it's close to recreational opportunities in Muskoka and along Georgian Bay. A lot of people I knew who moved to Barrie moved there because they liked to do outdoor stuff.

Brantford is pretty sad sack. It is within commuting range of Hamilton and KWC.

Peterborough is the least accessible to big city opportunities, being only close to the Eastern side of the GTA which is the "wrong side" of the sprawl for high-paying jobs. I'd say it's 2nd after Guelph in terms of vibrancy/bones (I'd say it's a distant 2nd - it's definitely rougher around the edges than Guelph) and 2nd after Barrie in terms of outdoorsy access.

In terms of value, I'd rank it:

Guelph
Barrie
Peterborough/Brantford (depending on what you value).

There were some places even further out that are even rougher around the edges that saw a huge home price spike after Covid, like Belleville, and these places are seeing their home prices crash back to earth.
Ironically Brantford is the fastest growing out of the 4 right now. It has better employment access than you would think - Commuters can access Hamilton, KWC, Halton Region (a lot of very high paying engineering focused jobs in Burlington area) and London - and has strong employment growth within it's own borders as well.


A lot of the growth is focused in Paris area too, which is an attractive smallish town.

Downtown Brantford is... lacking though. But that's not what really matters to most people - hard to believe in these urbanist circles. Guelph right now has slowing employment growth and little new greenfield residential areas which limits growth potential, as desirable as it may be. It's also not as commutable as you make it out to be as it's not right on the 401.

They are all pricier than Montreal due to spillover effects from the GTA. "Move till you qualify" and all. Once you get to parts of Ontario fully out of the sequential commuter belt of Toronto (i.e. Windsor, North Bay, Sudbury, Kingston), prices moderate a lot.
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  #3538  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 6:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere View Post
Ironically Brantford is the fastest growing out of the 4 right now. It has better employment access than you would think - Commuters can access Hamilton, KWC, Halton Region (a lot of very high paying engineering focused jobs in Burlington area) and London - and has strong employment growth within it's own borders as well.


A lot of the growth is focused in Paris area too, which is an attractive smallish town.

Downtown Brantford is... lacking though. But that's not what really matters to most people - hard to believe in these urbanist circles. Guelph right now has slowing employment growth and little new greenfield residential areas which limits growth potential, as desirable as it may be. It's also not as commutable as you make it out to be as it's not right on the 401.
Right, but I was talking about desirability and price rather than growth. Of course Brantford is growing the fastest because it's the one that churns out the most new supply - or, specifically, supply that people who have a "drive until you qualify" mindset would want.

All else equal, I think Guelph is more desirable to more people than Brantford, and I'm not talking about urbanism or Victorian bones or even things like restaurants and cultural amenities - it's more to do with reputation, school quality, affluence, etc.
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  #3539  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 6:14 PM
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I think Calgary deserves to be on the list. Maybe I'm looking at it from a Calgarian point of view with the experience of living here, but my experience with other mid cities is they are also hit and miss.]
Others are definitely hit and miss too, but let me try and explain my feelings on this a little more. Apologies for the long post:

I think if the list under discussion is cities #4 through #6 for street life/vibrancy, Calgary probably will be on the list in a few years, probably at the expense of Ottawa. Huge transformations have happened in Calgary and more are underway now, which is why I think the city is going to change more over the next five years than it did in the last five.

But in terms of activity on the street, Calgary can feel incredibly vibrant in the right areas at the right times, but then in the past year I've also been walking down 17th Avenue on a beautiful afternoon and been one of the only people on an entire city block. The entire core just feels like it operates at a quieter baseline energy level.

Not to be a homer, but I do think Halifax is unusually strong in this regard. It and Calgary are the two Canadian cities I know best, besides Toronto, and I think comparing them is instructive as to why (to me) Halifax feels like it has more going on at street level, over a more continuously connected area.

If you take the area in Calgary between 14th Street and the Bow River, from 26th Avenue in Mission up to the top of Sunnyside, and then over to 1st Ave in Bridgeland, you're looking at the main focal point for street life in the city. (Inglewood is indeed kind of an island on its own.) That's about 9 square kilometres. If you take the most central 9 sq. km. in Halifax you're going from about the rail cut in the South End to Duffus Street in the North End, from the waterfront to Robie, out to Connaught below Chebucto. (You're leaving out another island, central Dartmouth, which is really more like a full small-town core.)

That area in Calgary has the densely built up office district, and a number of mixed-use main streets: Stephen Ave, 17th, 4th, 1st St and 1st Ave, Kensington Ave/10th St). It also has a larger population than the Halifax area. However, there is more stuff in that part of Halifax, which leads to more visitation from across the metro area: universities, hospitals, basically all of the sports and performing-arts venues, museums. There's also Spring Garden Road, which I think is probably the most heavily pedestrian-trafficked street in either city. Obviously central Calgary has a lot of stuff too, but there is also more dispersion of amenities and people-magnets throughout the city. This is even evident in little things. Stuff like the Telus Spark science centre, or multiplex movie theatres, or even a public pool, are not located within this central area. There are roughly half as many schools. Those kinds of things draw people, but they're not going to the core to reach them--and people who live in the core are leaving to reach them.

But the biggest difference is downtown, not the nearby neighbourhoods: Calgary's CBD is much larger, and creates a big area with almost nothing but offices. Halifax's CBD is much smaller and integrated with a lot of other downtown elements: several kilometres of extremely active waterfront with multiple mixed-use building complexes, a nightlife/bar district, and a generally more cheek-by-jowl quality to the built environment. So all that is to say, central Halifax feels (to me) more complete as a metropolitan core, whereas Calgary's core feels more like a collection of great neighbourhoods, focused on distinct commercial corridors, orbiting the CBD. So it's not really a question of which is better; I think there's just historical inertia in terms of the nature of the built environment, and where things are located. Again, I think that Calgary's sheer mass of people is going to keep pushing that city in a continously more vibrant direction. It can't not, really.
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  #3540  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2025, 6:15 PM
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Right, but I was talking about desirability and price rather than growth. Of course Brantford is growing the fastest because it's the one that churns out the most new supply - or, specifically, supply that people who have a "drive until you qualify" mindset would want.

All else equal, I think Guelph is more desirable to more people than Brantford, and I'm not talking about urbanism or Victorian bones or even things like restaurants and cultural amenities - it's more to do with reputation, school quality, affluence, etc.
They tore down half of downtown Brantford.

This (3 whole blocks)


is gone.

replaced by this:


Sure to be a boon for pedestrian traffic (/sarcasm)

Video Link
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