Statistics Canada Reports II

[Drybrain]

No big cities have declined (except Edmonton, which I find a little weird—maybe some statistical static that’ll get smoothed out later?) but Newfoundland, Ontario, Quebec and BC lost population at the provincial level. Data here. Important to note that this doesn’t reflect the beginning of some cycle of decline—it’s entirely due to departing non-permanent migrants creating a large net outflow.

Alberta is experiencing a continued surge in interprovincial migration. And for whatever reason, the net change in non-permanent migrants has not yet fallen into negative territory. But the trendline is sharply down, and I’d guess that Alberta’s population growth in the second half of the year will be a lot slower than the first as a result. Regular permanent immigration to Alberta is in line with other provinces, proportionally.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Cool data. Thanks! Newfoundlanders love to move away.

[LikesBikes]

The data kind of goes against the whole narrative of BCians moving to Alberta, no?

# of people still living in province is greater in BC than AB, and BC has a greater number of people from Alberta than vice versa. I'm not even from that part of the country but the narrative of everyone wanting to leave BC is something I see on my socials.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by LikesBikes

The data kind of goes against the whole narrative of BCians moving to Alberta, no?

# of people still living in province is greater in BC than AB, and BC has a greater number of people from Alberta than vice versa. I'm not even from that part of the country but the narrative of everyone wanting to leave BC is something I see on my socials.

It’s only data up to the 2021 census, so it wouldn’t reflect the post-pandemic population trends. The 2026 census should be pretty interesting.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Hmm, yeah the stats don't really make sense. Edmonton supposedly lost population July to August, which is weird, I doubt that's the case, but also those numbers don't appear to be full CMA numbers - not sure what numbers they're supposed to be. They look close to the numbers from the 2021 census, but not quite.
As for Calgary, employment numbers for July to August didn't look good. It'll be interesting to see if it's an aberration or a trend.

[Docere]

A few comments on the data:

About a tenth of Atlantic Canadians moved to Ontario, but Alberta has attracted a good number of Newfoundlanders.

Quebec has the highest percentage remaining in province of birth. The anglo exodus occurred long ago and not surprisingly francophones haven't left in large numbers (two nations).

About 7% of Ontarians have moved west.

Saskatchewan and Alberta are closely linked, and Alberta has drawn many migrants from Saskatchewan, with one out of six Saskatchewan-born living there. In fact Saskatchewan has a lower rate remaining in than Newfoundland does.

About a tenth of those born in the Prairies live in BC.

[zoomer]

Thanks for the links Changing City and Drybrain - I never realized Stats Canada tracked population on a monthly basis, but makes sense as that info is required for labour market analysis. I wonder about the mechanics of it though, I assume it’s rough and based on a few key pieces of data, past trends and extrapolation.

With housing affordability remaining a powerful motivator I can see continued internal movement to Alberta, NB and Nova Scotia for many years yet as there hasn’t been a significant narrowing of the gap with other high cost regions. At some point you’d think this would have to happen but if it hasn’t for several decades, why would it change now?

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

Hmm, yeah the stats don't really make sense. Edmonton supposedly lost population July to August, which is weird, I doubt that's the case, but also those numbers don't appear to be full CMA numbers - not sure what numbers they're supposed to be. They look close to the numbers from the 2021 census, but not quite.
As for Calgary, employment numbers for July to August didn't look good. It'll be interesting to see if it's an aberration or a trend.

That's not population. I think that is the size of the labour force.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Xelebes

That's not population. I think that is the size of the labour force.

The Statistics Canada link I posted earlier shows Edmonton CMC losing population between July and August. The Labour Force grew.

They're one month estimates, so could easily get changed again, but that's what was published.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Docere

A few comments on the data:

About a tenth of Atlantic Canadians moved to Ontario, but Alberta has attracted a good number of Newfoundlanders.

Quebec has the highest percentage remaining in province of birth. The anglo exodus occurred long ago and not surprisingly francophones haven't left in large numbers (two nations).

About 7% of Ontarians have moved west.

Saskatchewan and Alberta are closely linked, and Alberta has drawn many migrants from Saskatchewan, with one out of six Saskatchewan-born living there. In fact Saskatchewan has a lower rate remaining in than Newfoundland does.

About a tenth of those born in the Prairies live in BC.

This isn't the latest data, it's the 2021 census - I thought it would be better to separate out where interprovincial migration could be discussed (historically as much as the contemporary figures). The place of birth data isn't just people who moved recently, but over a lifetime. Oh well.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Docere

This isn't the latest data, it's the 2021 census - I thought it would be better to separate out where interprovincial migration could be discussed (historically as much as the contemporary figures). The place of birth data isn't just people who moved recently, but over a lifetime. Oh well.

There are more recent data on net interprovincial migration which is produced annualy. 2023/24 data is here. It doesn't have the same information about where people moved from and to, only the volumes in, out, and net change.

That link also allows you to look at changing numbers over 50+ years for Canada and each of the provinces. You'll see that population stability within provinces has generally increased - but there was a noteable 'blip' between 2020/21 and 2023/24, which was obviously the disruption caused by the pandemic. The in and out migration rate in Canada in 2023/24 was 7.54%, and if you look back to 1973/74 it was 19.32%

In table form you can see the Statistics Canada interprovincial migration estimates from 1961 right up to Q1 2025.

[Denscity]

Originally Posted by Docere

The 2021 census has data on province of birth. I combined the three Maritime provinces together.

Total born in province/region:

Newfoundland 638,150
Maritimes 1,825,725
Quebec 7,077,620
Ontario 9,336,420
Manitoba 1,217,815
Saskatchewan 1,229,840
Alberta 2,655,295
British Columbia 2,649,175

Number still living in province/region:

Newfoundland 438,005 68.6%
Maritimes 1,428,125 78.3%
Quebec 6,564,835 92.8%
Ontario 8,419,125 90.2%
Manitoba 871,560 71.6%
Saskatchewan 797,200 64.8%
Alberta 2,165,210 81.5%
British Columbia 2,306,900 87%

Province of birth for the three big in-migration recipients:

ONTARIO

Newfoundland 76,605
Maritimes 176,870
Quebec 320,660
Manitoba 78,150
Saskatchewan 44,835
Alberta 97,835
British Columbia 86,095

ALBERTA

Newfoundland 51,475
Maritimes 87,715
Quebec 58,535
Ontario 230,970
Manitoba 98,650
Saskatchewan 214,970
British Columbia 184,455

BRITISH COLUMBIA

Newfoundland 17,045
Maritimes 53,780
Quebec 73,620
Ontario 286,295
Manitoba 107,055
Saskatchewan 126,210
Alberta 277,095

Well this makes sense as many of my friends are either from Ontario or Alberta.

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The Statistics Canada link I posted earlier shows Edmonton CMC losing population between July and August. The Labour Force grew.

They're one month estimates, so could easily get changed again, but that's what was published.

That isn't population. That's labour force. You don't use population numbers when you are calculating unemployment.

[zoomer]

Changing City is correct - it’s population as the table states. You need population in order to calculate participation rate which then impacts the unemployment rate as it’s based on those participating (people actively working or looking for work) and would not include those who are not, for example, retired early, unable to work due to disability, etc.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Important to note that this doesn’t reflect the beginning of some cycle of decline—it’s entirely due to departing non-permanent migrants creating a large net outflow.

I've seen speculation that the outflow is modeled based on expiring visas but that it's not necessarily materializing in practice due to a lack of tracking of the number who depart the country. It will be interesting to see what ends up happening.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Xelebes

That's not population. I think that is the size of the labour force.

The first number doesn't seem to be either cma pop or labour force. The second number - labour force for Calgary shows 1,075.6 looks about right, but the pop looks wrong, or at least is an old figure.

Calgary, Alberta
Population 1,521.8 1,526.5
Labour force 1,075.6

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Xelebes

That isn't population. That's labour force. You don't use population numbers when you are calculating unemployment.

The stats represent population in the labour force so basically everyone between the ages of 18 to 24 and over 65. It's still a very good indicator of current population growth.

[Changing City]

The population number used is 'Number of persons of working age, 15 years and over'. It's an estimate of total youth and adult population.

The population in the labour force is shown - the August estimate of Canadian population aged 15 and over was 34,612,100, with 22,581,300 of them in the labour force, and 21,012,200 of them employed.

[jc_yyc_ca]

I'm not sure sure where to post this, but because the originating stats come from Statscan, this seems as good as any. I'm posting a screenshot as the table is formatted nicely in the screenshot.


Source

[theman23]

^What is that a ranking of?