Canadian Skyline Thread III

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by logan5

Milwaukee is a part of Chicagoland, so much of Chicagoland is centered around Milwaukee as well. Similar I suppose to Hamilton/Toronto.

Toronto is flying by Chicago, with no signs of slowing down.

Milwaukee is not part of Chicagoland, neither within the MSA or the CSA - totally distinct.

[DavidK93]

Originally Posted by Pavlov

I agree. However, I think this conversation does show how far Calgary has come in the last ~20 years (especially considering its location and its primary industry).

For sure. Like I said earlier, for a city that size Calgary can’t be beaten, but it’s folly to compare it directly to Vancouver or Toronto. Has a long ways to go before catching up to those cities.
I will say this however, I was in Calgary earlier this summer and I was very impressed by how busy the downtown core is compared to the very first time I was there, which was around 2009. They’re on the right track.

[Calgarian]

The GTA should just be the GTHA it seems, but being on the other side of the country, I have no idea how connected the 2 areas actually are. Toronto and Hamilton are far enough apart that I'm sure there isn't much travel between the 2 core cities, but the area between are probably fairly connected to both areas, thus linking the area as a whole. Any truth to my perception of a region I've never actually been to? lol

[savevp]

Quite a bit of interconnectedness. Better-than-hourly trains for much of the day, and I think there's a lot of 2-3 x weekly commuters nowadays. It's very much become tied in with Toronto, though it retains much of its own identity.

[MolsonExport]

There are no breaks in the development from Hamilton through to Oshawa.

[Calgarian]

Originally Posted by savevp

It's very much become tied in with Toronto, though it retains much of its own identity.

Would it be fair to say Hamilton is to Toronto what NJ is to NYC?

[Wigs]

IMHO, Toronto won't officially surpass Chicago until the Gross Metropolitan Product is higher.

The latest Statistics Canada data I've found is from 2021
Statistics Canada. Table 36-10-0468-01 Gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices, by census metropolitan area (CMA) (x 1,000,000)
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=3610046801

Toronto: $473.6 Billion CAD

From Federal Reserve 2021
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGMP16980

Chicago: $770.5 Billion USD

(using chained 2017 dollars it was $698 Billion USD)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RGMP16980

Using avg exchange rate in 2021
770.5 x 1.2538 = ~$966 Billion CAD

966-473.6= $492.4 Billion
Chicago MSA had a GDP almost half a Trillion CAD higher than Toronto CMA in 2021.

To put this in perspective
Montreal CMA: $253.9B CAD
Vancouver CMA: $183.1B CAD
Total: $437 Billion CAD

The difference between Chicago's and Toronto's Gross Metropolitan Product in 2021 was so stark it was greater than Montreal's and Vancouver's GMP combined!

[Nouvellecosse]

If having a higher GDP is necessary for one city's skyline to surpass another's then I wonder how llong it'll be before Toronto skyline surpasses LA's. Or even for Chicago's to surpass LA's for that matter.

[Wigs]

I know you're thinking strictly in Skylines, but in my humble opinion a Metro doesn't surpass another in prominence until

- the population is higher
- the GMP is higher

If we want Toronto compared to Chicago on a world scale, these factors matter more than just buildings

[Nouvellecosse]

I'm thinking strictly skylines because as far as I can tell that's what everyone else is talking about. Which would make sense for a skylines thread on a skyscraper site.

[Wigs]

Forumers have brought up city vibes/urban feel, liveliness, parks, population comparisons, etc.

Pardon me if you don't think I'm adding to the discussion with economic output. Even though Toronto is Canada's largest city and the CMA is Canada's financial capital, media centre, IT/tech capital, economic juggernaut it still has a long way to go to compare to Chicago's MSA.

I mean you have to add Montreal and Vancouver's GMP onto Toronto to compare with Chicago. That's wild!
Maybe I'm the only forumer that thinks this way. I'm okay with that.

Dubai has a glitzy Petro State skyline and had supertalls years before Toronto, but almost no one would say it's nicer than how Toronto looks for skyline or city feel

Toronto's skyline overall is still bland compared to Chicago, which makes sense since Chicago had like 3 million people before 1930 (and peaked at 3.62 million in 1950, Metro was ~5.5 million). The Golden age of skyscrapers. That's just my opinion.

[someone123]

The problem with these comparisons is that the CMAs and MSAs are constructed differently. The MSA brings in a bunch of extra people who even if they just generate average economic output for the USA will bring up the Chicago product figure a lot.

The US figures are also somewhat inflated relative to other countries due to numerous issues such as these numbers being given in USD. An another example, I believe corporate profits are counted as metropolitan output regardless of where the money goes, and this isn't done consistently from country to country.

Ultimately I'd guess that a GMP figure for a US city vs. one in another country could easily be off by a factor of 2. So Toronto and Chicago might be within the error bars at this point.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Forumers have brought up city vibes/urban feel, liveliness, parks, population comparisons, etc.

Pardon me if you don't think I'm adding to the discussion with economic output. Even though Toronto is Canada's largest city and the CMA is Canada's financial capital, media centre, IT/tech capital, economic juggernaut it still has a long way to go to compare to Chicago's MSA.

Oh I wasn't criticizing if you want to change the topic. The site isn't usually super strict in that regard and i don't care personally. I just thought you didn't realize what people were talking about since it's common for people to skim read or miss part of the prior context.

Personally, I do think that GDP is an important component of a city's prominence but it's just one of say, 4 or 5 different things. I don't consider having a larger GDP or population size to be a determining factor or necessary condition on its own. Things like cultural, historical and institutional assets, quality of life, and aesthetics all play a role. For instance, Houston also has a much larger metro GDP than Toronto but I'd still consider Toronto to be a more prominent city overall. Same with say, Barcelona or Amsterdam vs Dallas. The GDP and population gap is even more prominent in those cases but I'd still consider the European examples to have equal or greater prominence. And all the major city ranking lists I've seen tend to reflect this as well.

[logan5]

Seattle has a higher GDP than Toronto.

[Winnipegger]

Honestly guys, it is a fools errand to try and compare GDP or GDP per capita between Canadian cities and American ones because Canada will likely never reach the same level of labour productivity or industry distribution of the United States.

The US economy is literally a miracle, an absolute juggernaut on a global scale. The level of wealth across the boarder is incomparable to any other place on the planet, and the average US consumer will spend much more than the average consumer in most other western countries including Canada. The United States contains 1/3rd of all publicly traded companies valued at over $1B in the world. Of course the flip side is the United States has massive wealth inequality, but since we are just looking at overall economic output (and not social issues or wellbeing), it's a moot point.

All of this is to say comparing the economic output of Canadian cities to American ones and getting down about ourselves isn't a worthwhile exercise. You'd be better off comparing economic output to European countries and Australia. We will never achieve the aggregate level of wealth the United States presently has, even if we scaled it down to account for smaller population. The US is just simply too unique and dominant in its global position.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Winnipegger

All of this is to say comparing the economic output of Canadian cities to American ones and getting down about ourselves isn't a worthwhile exercise. You'd be better off comparing economic output to European countries and Australia. We will never achieve the aggregate level of wealth the United States presently has, even if we scaled it down to account for smaller population. The US is just simply too unique and dominant in its global position.

But Canada was tied with the US for GDP per capita back in 2015 and real income per capita used to be higher.

Here's an old chart: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...71122b-eng.htm

Apparently back in the 80's Canada hit 10% higher productivity than the US too. I think Canada has just had poor economic policy recently. Obviously Canada will not hit the total output of the USA but a metropolitan area in Canada can hit comparable economic output to a similar-sized American city.

[Calgarian]

Originally Posted by Wigs

IMHO, Toronto won't officially surpass Chicago until the Gross Metropolitan Product is higher.

The latest Statistics Canada data I've found is from 2021
Statistics Canada. Table 36-10-0468-01 Gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices, by census metropolitan area (CMA) (x 1,000,000)
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=3610046801

Toronto: $473.6 Billion CAD

From Federal Reserve 2021
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGMP16980

Chicago: $770.5 Billion USD

(using chained 2017 dollars it was $698 Billion USD)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RGMP16980

Using avg exchange rate in 2021
770.5 x 1.2538 = ~$966 Billion CAD

966-473.6= $492.4 Billion
Chicago MSA had a GDP almost half a Trillion CAD higher than Toronto CMA in 2021.

To put this in perspective
Montreal CMA: $253.9B CAD
Vancouver CMA: $183.1B CAD
Total: $437 Billion CAD

The difference between Chicago's and Toronto's Gross Metropolitan Product in 2021 was so stark it was greater than Montreal's and Vancouver's GMP combined!

This is a difference between Canada and the US economically. We will likely never close this gap unless Dump scares all investment away from the US.

[craner]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Yes those areas are ripe for development. Instead our local developers seem to favour bulldozing the little remaining historical building stock we have left for new condos (*cough* Truman! *cough*). I guess they're proposing to build the new tallest on a parking lot across from the Stampede. I'm still miffed at what they've destroyed for 3 recent projects though (Gallery First and Tenth, Broward and Gresham Block).

Streetviews of what is now rubble:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ca...oASAFQAw%3D%3D

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ca...oASAFQAw%3D%3D

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ca...oASAFQAw%3D%3D

I don’t see any of those as great losses and certainly not worth preserving at the expense of new development.

Just my opinion though.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by someone123

But Canada was tied with the US for GDP per capita back in 2015 and real income per capita used to be higher.

Here's an old chart: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...71122b-eng.htm

Apparently back in the 80's Canada hit 10% higher productivity than the US too. I think Canada has just had poor economic policy recently. Obviously Canada will not hit the total output of the USA but a metropolitan area in Canada can hit comparable economic output to a similar-sized American city.

There's the infamous Canadian chart posted by people on the right showing that in 2015 (when Trudeau was elected and right before Trump 1), GDP and productivity (which is GDP/hour worked) growth diverged sharply between the two countries, with the US taking off like a rocket ship and Canada stagnating. The implication is that the fault is entirely our own.

What I would say is that, around 2015, Canada and the US took a divergent path where Canadian Federal government chose to import people, and the US Federal government chose to borrow heavily. Both countries chose the option that was easy for them: Canada is more immigrant-friendly, and the US has a reserve currency.

The result of this is that there would be a divergence in per capita GDP between the two countries, since the people Canada imported are generally low in labour productivity and per capita contribution to GDP, while the US economy was injected with a ton of cash.

Neither country could do what the other country did. If Canada ran deficits above 7% of our GDP, we'd default and be the next Argentina. If the US continuously brought in 12 million immigrants a year, the societal backlash could almost be civil war-like. But the US deficit policy and the Canadian immigration policy aren't sustainable in their respective countries, either. If I had to pick, I would choose the Canadian approach because at least you can stop it completely, expect some people to go back, and not have any major externalities like having to raise taxes, cut spending for major political blocs that have become accustomed to that spending, or see your credit downgrade or risk losing reserve currency status.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

Would it be fair to say Hamilton is to Toronto what NJ is to NYC?

No, New Jersey starts right across the Hudson river from Manhattan, so it's much closer psychologically and economically. Hamilton is 70 km away from downtown Toronto.

NJ is also much bigger, even relatively speaking. The counties that form the big suburban blob just west of NYC have about 5.5 million people, which is not much smaller than NYC itself (8.5 million) and more than 1/4 of the NYC metro area. Hamilton is less than 1/10 of the GTHA's population.