YVR & Sea Island Developments Discussion II

[VancityAvgeek33]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Is there any chance YVR will get MEL back? I believe that, as Melbourne was deeply impacted by Covid 19, the route was dropped, // However, earlier than that, I read that the YVR-MEL route was strong in J Class. Is that not an indicator of potential profitability as a route?

Melbourne will be coming back it’s just a question of when? It was on air Canadas wish list in December of last year. They just need planes. I’m sure once they get 787-10s it will bring more 787-9s to yvr and allow for expansion.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by VancityAvgeek33

Melbourne will be coming back it’s just a question of when? It was on air Canadas wish list in December of last year. They just need planes. I’m sure once they get 787-10s it will bring more 787-9s to yvr and allow for expansion.

Thank you for that reassuring feedback. /// If Air Canada's main problem is lack of suitable aircraft, I can only wonder what, if any, unserved routes (intercontinental) are waiting to be served.

[VancityAvgeek33]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Thank you for that reassuring feedback. /// If Air Canada's main problem is lack of suitable aircraft, I can only wonder what, if any, unserved routes (intercontinental) are waiting to be served.

From what I have heard Air Canada are pushing for Melbourne re launch and a new flight to Ho Chi Minh City. Other potential routes include Nagoya re launch Denpasar and Sapporo. There are many other routes but I personally see these as the most likely. It’s pretty safe to say Melbourne will be next because of the interest and success that they had when they previously flew it.

[nname]

Originally Posted by VancityAvgeek33

From what I have heard Air Canada are pushing for Melbourne re launch and a new flight to Ho Chi Minh City. Other potential routes include Nagoya re launch Denpasar and Sapporo. There are many other routes but I personally see these as the most likely. It’s pretty safe to say Melbourne will be next because of the interest and success that they had when they previously flew it.

From the last investor day presentation, all the potential new destination AC is looking at from the Pacific side (from North to South, West to East order):
Sapporo
Nagoya
Taipei
Ho Chi Minh City
Denpasar/Bali
Melbourne
Nadi

The investor day before this have 4 destinations shown... and 3 already launched:
Bangkok
Manila
Singapore
Ho Chi Minh City

Of course, any destination that's already served with YYZ/YUL may also be on AC's radar for YVR launch, and maybe higher than some of all of the destinations listed above.

[EDIT]
Looking at the map in page 72 again while posing this message, noticed for Central and South America, they have...
Guadalajara (launched from YYZ)
Acapulco
Guatemala City (launched from YUL)
Cartagena (launched from YYZ/YUL)
Georgetown
Fortaleza
Rio de Janeiro (launched from YYZ)
Lima (launched from YYZ/YUL)

So this winter alone, AC already launched all but 3 of the potential destinations in South America. That's how fast they will launch route when they have extra planes available (taken from the trans-border sun routes which traditionally have ALOT of widebody service in the winter)

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by nname

From the last investor day presentation, all the potential new destination AC is looking at from the Pacific side (from North to South, West to East order):
Sapporo
Nagoya
Taipei
Ho Chi Minh City
Denpasar/Bali
Melbourne
Nadi

The investor day before this have 4 destinations shown... and 3 already launched:
Bangkok
Manila
Singapore
Ho Chi Minh City

Of course, any destination that's already served with YYZ/YUL may also be on AC's radar for YVR launch, and maybe higher than some of all of the destinations listed above.

[EDIT]
Looking at the map in page 72 again while posing this message, noticed for Central and South America, they have...
Guadalajara (launched from YYZ)
Acapulco
Guatemala City (launched from YUL)
Cartagena (launched from YYZ/YUL)
Georgetown
Fortaleza
Rio de Janeiro (launched from YYZ)
Lima (launched from YYZ/YUL)

So this winter alone, AC already launched all but 3 of the potential destinations in South America. That's how fast they will launch route when they have extra planes available (taken from the trans-border sun routes which traditionally have ALOT of widebody service in the winter)

I feel like MEL, NGO, SGN, and potentially NAN are shoe ins. TPE I still think is a hole for AC despite the competition from Taiwanese carriers. I'd expect to see these launched within the next three or so years.

[trofirhen]

With both Air Canada and the respective foreign airlines of their countries, YVR Asia-Pacific coverage is really great!! Nevertheless, we are still behind in European and Latin American coverage.
I know Toronto and Montreal are both larger markets, but metro Vancouver is nudging 3 million people, and no, not all of our population is Asia-Pacific in origin. What about those markets?
Most of the new destinations, for Air Canada, anyway, are out of YYZ/YUL. // Is this a natural concordance between market size and the # of destinations .... or is there a bias here? Some say no, some say yes. // I would really love to know.

[Johnny Aussie]

Korean maintaining all 787-10 over winter

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250804-kenw25na

Seoul Incheon – Vancouver 26OCT25 – 28FEB26 4 weekly KE075/076 787-10 replaces -9 (All 11 weekly operated by 787-10)

KE’s 787-10 has approx 50 more seats and a business class cabin that is 50% larger than the 789

Total YVR-ICN this winter will be 22 weekly with AC daily (I’ll be flying in for XMAS on this flight) and T’way continuing 4 weekly

[Johnny Aussie]

Also YVR-Europe will be well connected this winter with 40 weekly flights for peak Xmas period on seven carriers to seven destinations

BA 7 weekly 35K LHR
AC 7 weekly 77W LHR
LH 6 weekly 343 FRA and 3 weekly 359 MUC
KL 3 weekly 332 AMS
AF 7 weekly 359 CDG (5 weekly non peak)
FI 4 weekly 7M8 KEF
TK 3 weekly 77W IST

[owenf]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Also YVR-Europe will be well connected this winter with 40 weekly flights for peak Xmas period on seven carriers to seven destinations

BA 7 weekly 35K LHR
AC 7 weekly 77W LHR
LH 6 weekly 343 FRA and 3 weekly 359 MUC
KL 3 weekly 332 AMS
AF 7 weekly 359 CDG (5 weekly non peak)
FI 4 weekly 7M8 KEF
TK 3 weekly 77W IST

I think this is a net gain of 0 during peak season from W24 if I'm not mistaken? LH to FRA was 7x weekly last year, down to 6x this year, and KL was 4x/wk last year, down to 3x/week. While AF is up to 7x/week from 5x/week in W24.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by owenf

I think this is a net gain of 0 during peak season from W24 if I'm not mistaken? LH to FRA was 7x weekly last year, down to 6x this year, and KL was 4x/wk last year, down to 3x/week. While AF is up to 7x/week from 5x/week in W24.

Still pretty impressive in my books. LH isn't even daily at YUL, and KL is also 3x weekly at YUL. For YVR's geographic position I think it punches above its weight.

[nname]

Originally Posted by owenf

I think this is a net gain of 0 during peak season from W24 if I'm not mistaken? LH to FRA was 7x weekly last year, down to 6x this year, and KL was 4x/wk last year, down to 3x/week. While AF is up to 7x/week from 5x/week in W24.

AF was also 7x weekly during December last winter, but the duration is a week shorter I believe. Also, the duration for the reduction from 5x to 3x weekly for the upcoming winter is much shorter compared to last.

Other recent changes and news:
- AC added 3rd daily YVR-CUN on Sunday for Nov using old flight number 932/933, not sure if this will be extended further into winter
- QF extend 4th weekly YVR-SYD until end of April
- AC reduce PEK to 4x weekly in April
- There's rumor of further increase of capacity to China. Maybe MU and CZ will return to YVR this time, especially if overflying Russia is not allowed for the new frequency.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by hehehe

Still pretty impressive in my books. LH isn't even daily at YUL, and KL is also 3x weekly at YUL. For YVR's geographic position I think it punches above its weight.

People bang on about how poorly Europe is served from YVR - 7 year round destinations is impressive based on a few factors - geography being one of them. And of course summer is another story!

Originally Posted by nname

- There's rumor of further increase of capacity to China. Maybe MU and CZ will return to YVR this time, especially if overflying Russia is not allowed for the new frequency.

Still amazes me how much ahead Australia (mainly SYD and MEL) is compared to Canada. Just two examples China Southern will be three daily to both MEL and SYD this upcoming summer (our summer) and China Eastern twice daily from PVG to both as well.

[ninjakafi_81]

Originally Posted by nname

Other recent changes and news:
- QF extend 4th weekly YVR-SYD until end of April
- There's rumor of further increase of capacity to China. Maybe MU and CZ will return to YVR this time, especially if overflying Russia is not allowed for the new frequency.

Which months were QF daily again and when does it drop off to 4x weekly ?

Also with the rumours of CZ and MU possibly returning to YVR, does that imply that the bilaterals between Canada and China were updated ?

[nname]

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

Which months were QF daily again and when does it drop off to 4x weekly ?

Also with the rumours of CZ and MU possibly returning to YVR, does that imply that the bilaterals between Canada and China were updated ?

4x weekly from end of Jan to end of April

The rumour is the 18x weekly cap is being increased. Everything else is just speculation on top of that rumour.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Still amazes me how much ahead Australia (mainly SYD and MEL) is compared to Canada. Just two examples China Southern will be three daily to both MEL and SYD this upcoming summer (our summer) and China Eastern twice daily from PVG to both as well.

Well that's likely because QF completely give up flights to mainland China so they just let the Chinese airline do whatever they wants. AC still want to operate and perhaps grow in China.

The frequency cap in North America also made the Chinese airlines to redeploy capacity elsewhere...

Speaking of AC, there is still no news of where they want to deploy the unused frequency. Now there's only 4 months lead time, and the only time AC announce something long-haul with 4 months or less lead time was MNL and restarting PEK.

[ninjakafi_81]

Originally Posted by nname

4x weekly from end of Jan to end of April

The rumour is the 18x weekly cap is being increased. Everything else is just speculation on top of that rumour.

Speaking of AC, there is still no news of where they want to deploy the unused frequency. Now there's only 4 months lead time, and the only time AC announce something long-haul with 4 months or less lead time was MNL and restarting PEK.

Would you happen to know how much it'll be increased ?

Would AC be able to operate to other cities in Mainland China besides Shanghai and Beijing ?

With time ticking, It seems more and more likely that we won't see anything new being announced out of YVR. Is it still possible to just extend a summer seasonal route through the winter and making it a new year round route ? Perhaps extending KIX through the winter ?

==================================

Would you happen to know anything about the potential of Air New Zealand relaunching flights to London with a stopover at YVR ?

[nname]

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

Would you happen to know how much it'll be increased ?

Would AC be able to operate to other cities in Mainland China besides Shanghai and Beijing ?

With time ticking, It seems more and more likely that we won't see anything new being announced out of YVR. Is it still possible to just extend a summer seasonal route through the winter and making it a new year round route ? Perhaps extending KIX through the winter ?

==================================

Would you happen to know anything about the potential of Air New Zealand relaunching flights to London with a stopover at YVR ?

I only posted it because the same source got it right last time, down to the exact frequency distribution among the Chinese carriers.

AC applied for up to daily YYZ-CAN during the pandemic but never started the route. Not sure if they already hold right to YVR-CAN. If they want to operate something new, I don't think there's anything stopping them from applying.

Other than that, no info for anything else.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Speaking of AC, there is still no news of where they want to deploy the unused frequency. Now there's only 4 months lead time, and the only time AC announce something long-haul with 4 months or less lead time was MNL and restarting PEK.

The suspense is killing me… well not really! But would be nice to know

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by hehehe

LH isn't even daily at YUL

That's YUL-MUC. LH doesn't operate YUL-FRA in winter. AC does, however, and its daily for the entire W25 season.

It's the opposite at YVR. LH operates YVR-FRA year round, whereas AC is summer seasonal on the route.

And LH on YVR-FRA in winter this year will be 6x weekly. It actually gets downgraded even more to 4x weekly during the week of Dec 21 and 5x weekly during the week of Dec 28, and then goes back up to 6x weekly for the remainder of the W25 season.

You need to remember that when it comes to AC/LH, they are one and the same across the Atlantic. It's a metal neutral joint venture. They coordinate everything. Schedule, prices, etc. So it doesn't matter who operates, AC or LH.

[LeftCoaster]

Strange LH goes to 4x and 5x during peak holiday travel weeks, then back up to 6 after.

Must need the planes elsewhere?

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

People bang on about how poorly Europe is served from YVR - 7 year round destinations is impressive based on a few factors - geography being one of them. And of course summer is another story!



Still amazes me how much ahead Australia (mainly SYD and MEL) is compared to Canada. Just two examples China Southern will be three daily to both MEL and SYD this upcoming summer (our summer) and China Eastern twice daily from PVG to both as well.

I'm assuming it's at least partially because of the higher number of Chinese international students. At least the uni I'm at (UQ) is probably close to 50% Chinese, I'm sure Usyd/Unimelb/ANU etc are in a similar range. And they usually travel back every semester. Purely anecdotal on my end but Australia has a much higher East Asian presence than Canada (outside of Vancouver at least). I also know a lot of people who fly to Europe through connections in PVG on China Eastern.