Statistics Canada Reports II

[Innsertnamehere]

I mean we can get into how ridiculously poor BCs road infrastructure is if you want.. but I do see the parallels albeit on a much smaller scale.

[svlt]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

And both are growing into Chilliwack.

It’s obviously on a much smaller scale, but I have always felt that the Fraser Valley is like a mini Southern Ontario in some respects. Three CMAs of very different sizes strung closely together separated by farm land and quickly growing into each other.

Chilliwack has been part of Metro Vancouver's economy and commuter belt for a while now. It isn't self contained, self sufficient or cut off from it aside from poor transit connectivity. People from Chilliwack don't really have a "Chilliwack" or even Fraser Valley identity, they generally see themselves as basically from Vancouver to anyone outside of BC.

The real, true extent of Vancouver's geographic range of influence for statistics purposes should really be from Whistler down through to Chilliwack and even up to Hope if we are talking about regions that are very much directly impacted, and even dependent upon Vancouver's economic activity and Vancouver as a regional node. This is a region that today has 3.5 million people.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by rdaner

I am looking forward to the 2026 Census as I think that the density for cities is going to skyrocket and put us firmly in the UK end of the spectrum and much further away from the US.

I imagine the 2026 census is going to show a pretty big change from 2021. Aside from the obvious 3+ years of record-breaking growth that have happened since, the the 2021 census was also taken at the height of the pandemic - aside from trouble collecting data (the census always produces undercounts vs. the population estimates, but that year's was particularly egregious), it also captured some weird aberrations & momentary trends like people fleeing the city, students staying home, etc.

[MolsonExport]

It wasn't that long ago that the Westbound 401 from KW onwards was only 2 lanes each direction. It still is only two lanes from London to Windsor. This, for the busiest truck highway in North America.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

It wasn't that long ago that the Westbound 401 from KW onwards was only 2 lanes each direction. It still is only two lanes from London to Windsor. This, for the busiest truck highway in North America.

The 401 between London and Windsor is slowly being widened now, but it is being done for political, not actual, requirements. Traffic levels on that part of the 401 aren't actually all that high, around 20-25,000 vehicles a day.

The 2-lane part of Highway 6 running through Morriston, a regular rural road, carries about the same amount of daily traffic for comparison.

MTO is going to issue the contract to widen the 401 for about 20km westwards from London in the next year or so, and recently finished building another 12km or so eastwards from Tilbury close to Chatham. Another contract extending the 6-lane part to Chatham is a few years down the road (ha!).

Personally I think it's a bit of a waste of money, that stretch of highway isn't particularly busy and other highways in the province need that money far more. Even the 401 east of Toronto is far busier and actually needs a capacity expansion. Ideally the 401 should probably be 6 lanes from Toronto to Kingston at this point. That's not talking about the 400, 401 west of Toronto, and QEW out to Niagara either, all of which are existing 6-lane rural highways which are well over capacity. Ideally we'd see 8-10 lanes stretching up to Barrie, to Cambridge, and to St. Catherines. MTO is planning for all of that, but most of it is only partially or not funded.

[niwell]

The 401 should absolutely be 6 lanes to Kingston, particularly given the high levels of truck traffic. There are often (small) backups when it goes to 4 lanes East of Cobourg and the stretch from Trenton/Quinte West to Kingston itself is surprisingly busy. The poor passing etiquette of trucks these days make it much worse. It's pretty regular to be stuck in an extended slowdown because one truck is passing another at 101km/hr vs 100km/hr - really only due to speed governors being calibrated slightly differently. I get that any time saved = money but it can be infuriating.

As an aside I took backroads from Stratford back to Toronto this past Sunday and ended up in "rural" Milton for a bit. Was surprised to see that Britannia Rd is now 6 lanes from Tremaine to the 407. That whole area looks primed for massive amounts of greenfield development. Which does make sense as the "gap" between Milton and Oakville/Mississauga is probably the most accessible and benign from an environmental perspective for this to happen (the ravine lanes are already protected).

[MolsonExport]

The 401 should be 3 lanes each way from the eastern fringes of the GTA through to the Quebec border.

[north 42]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

It wasn't that long ago that the Westbound 401 from KW onwards was only 2 lanes each direction. It still is only two lanes from London to Windsor. This, for the busiest truck highway in North America.

The 401 in Windsor and all of Essex County has been widened to 6 lanes for a good 15 years now.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by niwell

The 401 should absolutely be 6 lanes to Kingston, particularly given the high levels of truck traffic. There are often (small) backups when it goes to 4 lanes East of Cobourg and the stretch from Trenton/Quinte West to Kingston itself is surprisingly busy. The poor passing etiquette of trucks these days make it much worse. It's pretty regular to be stuck in an extended slowdown because one truck is passing another at 101km/hr vs 100km/hr - really only due to speed governors being calibrated slightly differently. I get that any time saved = money but it can be infuriating.

As an aside I took backroads from Stratford back to Toronto this past Sunday and ended up in "rural" Milton for a bit. Was surprised to see that Britannia Rd is now 6 lanes from Tremaine to the 407. That whole area looks primed for massive amounts of greenfield development. Which does make sense as the "gap" between Milton and Oakville/Mississauga is probably the most accessible and benign from an environmental perspective for this to happen (the ravine lanes are already protected).

Yes, most of the land between Milton and Oakville / Mississauga is planned for subdivisions. There is a LOT of natural heritage areas in that space though so it will remain pretty mixed between subdivisions and natural areas.

When you look at traffic levels on the 401, AADT is around 15-25,000 vehicles a day east of the 416. That part operates fine and doesn't need expansion, but west of the 416 it gets busier, jumping to 30-40,000 cars a day to Kingston.

Typically a freeway "needs" to be widened from 4 to 6 lanes when it approaches the 50,000 car a day mark, which is generally when it starts to reach capacity. Some roads are more seasonal and may not hit that every day but hit it in summer peak periods - the QEW is a great example of this where in the winter it generally operates fine, but come summer peak gets absolutely slammed with tourists heading to Niagara.

Between Kingston and Cobourg, the road is generally sitting in the 35,000-45,000 cars a day range. The part between Trenton and Belleville is busiest, in the upper 40's. Summer traffic exceeds 50k for pretty much the entire stretch from Cobourg to Kingston.

[MolsonExport]

And always, some parts are under construction during the summer, leading to only 1 lane in each direction.

[rdaner]

Back on topic I am beginning to hear/see that the continued divergence that was noted in the last census comparisons of NA metros will not only be even more pronounced next year but that the fact that the US Census was a year before ours thus didn’t cover pandemic trends.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Not statscan numbers, but some population estimates from the Alberta government.
Alberta 4,980,659 (+138,136)
Calgary 1,839,000 (+60,194)
Edmonton 1,673,860 (+42,246)


I'm too lazy to work out the math, so I'm copying text from a post on SRC.

The estimates have Calgary at 1,839,000, so a growth of 60,194 and Edmonton at 1,673,860 for a growth of 42,246. This is around what I guessed it would be.

Alberta as a province is estimated at 4,980,659 for a growth of 138,136. Calgary with 43.7% of Alberta's growth, and Edmonton with 30.6% of Alberta's growth. 25.4% made up the rest of the province, which is higher than in the past when it was closer to 15%, but the cities are still getting by far the largest amount of the growth.

[Chocolite]

I wonder how accurate those numbers are, given they aren’t from statscan?

[Calgarian]

They're estimates, so probably reasonably accurate, but not as accurate as a census. Exciting to see the Calgary Metro at about 2 million people now! something like 250 000 people moved here in the last 3 years!

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

They're estimates, so probably reasonably accurate, but not as accurate as a census. Exciting to see the Calgary Metro at about 2 million people now! something like 250 000 people moved here in the last 3 years!

Census counts are always undercounts, so not more accurate. Not sure how the Alberta government's methodology differs from that of Statcan, but they're probably not pulling the numbers out from the ether either.

[zoomer]

It feels not that long ago when we were waiting for Edmonton and Calgary to flip over the 1 million mark. Same with Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia finally hitting a million - well Nova Scotia was actually recent and in terms of the 5 year census will be reflected in the 2026 numbers. I believe Edmonton was the first to 1 million over Calgary?

[Innsertnamehere]

Alberta hitting 5 million is important and exciting, but even more so is Calgary hitting the 2 million mark. It increasingly is growing into a true 4th Canadian "large city". Also interesting to see Calgary increasingly pull away from Edmonton, it wasn't that long ago that they were sitting head to head.

[Calgarian]

Pulling away from Ottawa too!

[MolsonExport]

very impressive growth statistics for Alberta and it's two big cities.

[ssiguy]

Calgary will continue to solidify itself as Canada's 4th city. It's gap between Edmonton & Ottawa is growing larger and that will continue. This is particularly true of Ottawa as Carney begins to make massive cuts to the civil service which are usually done in Ottawa rather than being evenly distributed throughout the country.