ATLANTA TRANSIT (Marta, Beltline, Peachtree Streetcar, LovJoy Commuter, etc...)

[Julien]

Originally Posted by lux

...On driverless cars - they're a fun invention, impressive even. But driverless cars are literally just ubers minus the driver. Sure, that's nice, but they are still expensive, space consuming, loud, dangerous, and do not fundamentally address the geometry problem that cars pose in cities.

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) will be available in a wide range of sizes, accommodating anywhere from 2 to 50 passengers. Consider the following scenario: You reside in a suburban neighborhood in Cobb County and commute to Downtown for work. Using an app, you schedule a pickup to be AT work at 7:30 a.m., four days a week. An appropriately sized AV shuttle is dispatched to your neighborhood, picking up you and then five other individuals with similar schedules and routes. Other residents in your area will be assigned different shuttles based on their specific destinations and departure times.

You will receive an exact arrival time, as high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes will be reserved exclusively for AV shuttles, which will communicate with each other to optimize and control the schedule. This is just one example; similar benefits will apply to intercity travel. Traditional city bus systems will be replaced by fleets of AV shuttles of various sizes, resulting in highly efficient and customizable public transportation. This approach eliminates the inefficiency of large buses carrying only a few passengers or being overcrowded. Instead, shuttle size and routing will be dynamically matched to passenger demand, ensuring optimal service for all users.

[montydawg]

Driverless trains are much easier to develop. If autonomous vehicles are the future, why haven’t they gotten transit agencies switched over to autonomous trains? (It’s economics)

[mohaas05]

Originally Posted by montydawg

Driverless trains are much easier to develop. If autonomous vehicles are the future, why haven’t they gotten transit agencies switched over to autonomous trains? (It’s economics)

Part of it is cost (needing to install platform barriers, etc.) and part of it is transit unions strongly fighting it.

[Julien]

It’s a fact that we can’t be certain about the future. However, if in 1900, you had thought that investing in horse stables was a good idea, it would have seemed completely plausible to almost everyone. Horse stables had been around for centuries, and that was the traditional way of caring for horses. It had always been this way and would continue to be this way.

Now think about our current transportation systems and the dual revolutions that are happening in AI and AV at near the speed of light. Look at this picture and it is easy to see that we are in for HUGE changes and coming soon.



Here are two classic images that illustrate the dramatic transformation of New York City streets during the early 20th century, highlighting the "buggy whip effect"-the rapid obsolescence of an entire industry as new technology takes over:

1. New York City Streets Before Cars (circa 1900)
Streets were dominated by horse-drawn carriages. Horses powered nearly all personal and commercial transportation, resulting in congested, noisy, and often unsanitary streets due to the enormous quantities of manure produced. A famous photo shows Fifth Avenue in 1900 filled with horses and carriages, with only a rare early automobile present.

2. New York City Streets After Cars Took Over (circa 1913)
Just 13 years later, the same stretch of Fifth Avenue is packed with automobiles, with only a single horse-drawn carriage visible among a sea of cars. This image starkly demonstrates how quickly the automobile displaced the horse, rendering entire trades (like buggy whip makers) obsolete.

These pics were taken ONLY 13 years apart. Same place 5th Av. NY City. On the left horse carriages and 1 car, on the right, 1 horse carriage and all the cars.

This visual transformation is a textbook example of the "buggy whip effect": as soon as the automobile reached a tipping point in affordability and practicality, the infrastructure, businesses, and jobs supporting horse-drawn transport vanished within a decade. The shift was so rapid and complete that by the 1920s, the horse, once ubiquitous in city life, had all but disappeared from the urban landscape.

[montydawg]

The Concorde was a great example of a technology thought revolutionary at the time, but pure economics and physics proved it could not be widely adopted, and it was relegated to a niche premium market. In the end economics killed the technology. My point is I believe autonomous vehicles will not be widely adopted due to the mechanical complexity, but will become a niche technology and will not replace high capacity transit

[Julien]

Originally Posted by montydawg

.....My point is I believe autonomous vehicles will not be widely adopted due to the mechanical complexity, but will become a niche technology and will not replace high capacity transit

Actually the opposite. Between removing (or not adding) driver controls and switching to EV the mechanics of future AVs will be far simplified.

Eliminating driver controls in Level 4 Autonomous Vehicles (L4 AVs) can remove approximately 70–130 mechanical parts, depending on the vehicle’s design. This reduction primarily stems from removing traditional steering, braking, and acceleration systems. Here’s a breakdown:
Key Components Removed
Steering System
Steering wheel, column, intermediate shafts, universal joints, and rack-and-pinion mechanisms.
Estimated parts removed: 50–100 (including mechanical linkages and brackets).
Pedal Assemblies
Accelerator, brake pedals, brackets, and associated linkages.
Estimated parts removed: 20–30.
Secondary Mechanical Interfaces
Clutch pedal (if applicable), parking brake levers, and mechanical shifters.
Estimated parts removed: 10–20.

[montydawg]

The technology you are touting has a larger number of smaller vehicles. All these mechanical systems and maintenance will be multiplied to transport a smaller number of passengers per vehicle. Public transportation only works where economies of scale are realized and more people can be transported with less equipment to maintain.

[RocketSurgeon]

Originally Posted by montydawg

The Concorde was a great example of a technology thought revolutionary at the time, but pure economics and physics proved it could not be widely adopted, and it was relegated to a niche premium market. In the end economics killed the technology. My point is I believe autonomous vehicles will not be widely adopted due to the mechanical complexity, but will become a niche technology and will not replace high capacity transit

Nah man. Waymo is expanding like crazy and is popular everywhere it operates. They just started a partnership with Toyota to develop autonomous cars for private sale. The cost of hardware like LiDAR is decreasing exponentially. AI models are shrinking enough to run locally on devices, and training can be done virtually now, like NVIDIA is doing for humanoid robots. Trillions of dollars are being invested in these things now. There's nothing niche about it.

That's beside the point though, because it doesn't matter who or what is driving the vehicle. The point is that in Atlanta, private services are expanding while public services aren't. I feel MARTA has missed their window of opportunity. They've angered a lot of people by misusing funds, and the private sector is providing alternatives that are far more convenient (and expensive, unfortunately).

I don't mean to say MARTA is going to shut down, but I'll be surprised if I ever see a new station again. They opened their first station in 1979 and the last in 2000. 21 years of growth followed by 25 years of nothing. And the environment is only getting worse for them.

I have to wonder what has happened at any point in this city in recent years that makes anyone believe MARTA has a bright future

I think it's nothing more than wishful thinking.

[montydawg]

I believe if home park and old forth ward continues to density, the need for more rail transit will intensify in the urban core. I’m hopeful the state can get behind commuter rail, which I believe would be a game changer for Atlanta, and in my mind is the missing piece of metro wide transit. I believe the answer intown is light rail, and heavy rail is probably as built out as it will get since there is not much density outside 285. Chicago and New York really haven’t expanded their heavy rail networks outside the currently served area in more than 25 years, but commuter rail is heavily utilized in bringing the suburbs into the city.

I agree that autonomous vehicles will be competitive with taxis and ride hailing services eventually, however the cost is much higher than public transit (e.g. $25 vs $2.50), which I believe will continue to be needed to move large numbers of people economically. Most people could not afford to commute everyday using something as expensive as Uber and that is also not as good for the environment

[stepover]

Originally Posted by montydawg

I believe if home park and old forth ward continues to density, the need for more rail transit will intensify in the urban core. I’m hopeful the state can get behind commuter rail, which I believe would be a game changer for Atlanta, and in my mind is the missing piece of metro wide transit. I believe the answer intown is light rail, and heavy rail is probably as built out as it will get since there is not much density outside 285. Chicago and New York really haven’t expanded their heavy rail networks outside the currently served area in more than 25 years, but commuter rail is heavily utilized in bringing the suburbs into the city.

I agree that autonomous vehicles will be competitive with taxis and ride hailing services eventually, however the cost is much higher than public transit (e.g. $25 vs $2.50), which I believe will continue to be needed to move large numbers of people economically. Most people could not afford to commute everyday using something as expensive as Uber and that is also not as good for the environment

For a 2 person Robotaxi the price target is $1/mile. A Robovan/Robobus will be close to 50 cents or less. The benefit of autonomous EV over rail is you get point to point travel (Robotaxi), cleaner (no urine and human feces), quieter, personalized temp/music/etc, and safer (I take Marta everyday for work and each year it seems to get more sketchy). The Robobus can handle the higher occupancy travel. The reality is Atlanta is going no where it seems with heavy/light rail because of incompetence. We can all pine for the this utopia transit system, but all signs point to it not happening.

I'm very confident 2025 will have a ChatGPT moment regarding autonomous taxis. Both Wamo and Tesla have very aggressive plans in the coming year. The price point and convenience will be too compelling. It will also eat away from existing Marta ridership that is already bad. This is all pretty much inevitable if you closely follow the industry.

[stepover]

Originally Posted by montydawg

I believe if home park and old forth ward continues to density, the need for more rail transit will intensify in the urban core. I’m hopeful the state can get behind commuter rail, which I believe would be a game changer for Atlanta, and in my mind is the missing piece of metro wide transit. I believe the answer intown is light rail, and heavy rail is probably as built out as it will get since there is not much density outside 285. Chicago and New York really haven’t expanded their heavy rail networks outside the currently served area in more than 25 years, but commuter rail is heavily utilized in bringing the suburbs into the city.

I agree that autonomous vehicles will be competitive with taxis and ride hailing services eventually, however the cost is much higher than public transit (e.g. $25 vs $2.50), which I believe will continue to be needed to move large numbers of people economically. Most people could not afford to commute everyday using something as expensive as Uber and that is also not as good for the environment

For a 2 person Robotaxi the price target is $1/mile. A Robovan/Robobus will be close to 50 cents or less. The benefit of autonomous EV over rail is you get point to point travel (Robotaxi), cleaner (no urine and human feces), quieter, personalized temp/music/etc, and safer (I take Marta everyday for work and each year it seems to get more sketchy). The Robobus can handle the higher occupancy travel. The reality is Atlanta is going no where it seems with heavy/light rail because of incompetence. We can all pine for the this utopia transit system, but all signs point to it not happening.

I'm very confident 2025 will have a ChatGPT moment regarding autonomous taxis. Both Wamo and Tesla have very aggressive plans in the coming year. The price point and convenience will be too compelling. It will also eat away from existing Marta ridership that is already bad. This is all pretty much inevitable if you closely follow the industry.

[lux]

Originally Posted by stepover

For a 2 person Robotaxi the price target is $1/mile. A Robovan/Robobus will be close to 50 cents or less. The benefit of autonomous EV over rail is you get point to point travel (Robotaxi), cleaner (no urine and human feces), quieter, personalized temp/music/etc, and safer (I take Marta everyday for work and each year it seems to get more sketchy). The Robobus can handle the higher occupancy travel. The reality is Atlanta is going no where it seems with heavy/light rail because of incompetence. We can all pine for the this utopia transit system, but all signs point to it not happening.

I'm very confident 2025 will have a ChatGPT moment regarding autonomous taxis. Both Wamo and Tesla have very aggressive plans in the coming year. The price point and convenience will be too compelling. It will also eat away from existing Marta ridership that is already bad. This is all pretty much inevitable if you closely follow the industry.

1. "Robovans" and "Robobuses" do NOT EXIST.
2. The advantages of autonomous EVs over rail that you listed are just the advantages of driving cars in general so it does nothing to address the fundamental question of: the overabundance of cars makes for a terrible urban experience, how can we fundamentally address this?
3. "The reality is Atlanta is going no where it seems with heavy/light rail because of incompetence. We can all pine for the this utopia transit system, but all signs point to it not happening." There is a lot of irony in calling traditional transit "utopian" while you pontificate about autonomous EVs - a technology which literally does not even exist in this city yet, and barely exists in other places. The actual reality is that transit exists everywhere else in abundance - it is not utopian just because this city has bad urban planning and made bad decisions in the past. The amount of will and investment that goes into implementing an autonomous vehicle system is far greater than simply expanding upon an existing rail system.

I will say that your predictions are probably correct - this city will probably lean on autonomous and electric vehicles and the next "evolution" in transportation without fundamentally addressing sprawl or making any meaningful investment in transit. This is how suburbanites find comfort in their lifestyle/rationalize it, and the metro area mostly comprises of suburbanites.

[RocketSurgeon]

Originally Posted by lux

1. "Robovans" and "Robobuses" do NOT EXIST.
2. The advantages of autonomous EVs over rail that you listed are just the advantages of driving cars in general so it does nothing to address the fundamental question of: the overabundance of cars makes for a terrible urban experience, how can we fundamentally address this?
3. "The reality is Atlanta is going no where it seems with heavy/light rail because of incompetence. We can all pine for the this utopia transit system, but all signs point to it not happening." There is a lot of irony in calling traditional transit "utopian" while you pontificate about autonomous EVs - a technology which literally does not even exist in this city yet, and barely exists in other places. The actual reality is that transit exists everywhere else in abundance - it is not utopian just because this city has bad urban planning and made bad decisions in the past. The amount of will and investment that goes into implementing an autonomous vehicle system is far greater than simply expanding upon an existing rail system.

I will say that your predictions are probably correct - this city will probably lean on autonomous and electric vehicles and the next "evolution" in transportation without fundamentally addressing sprawl or making any meaningful investment in transit. This is how suburbanites find comfort in their lifestyle/rationalize it, and the metro area mostly comprises of suburbanites.

Don't take this personally, but it's funny that you say you agree with what that person wrote but then attack them for posting it.

I've lived in the middle of Midtown for over a decade and I agree with them as well. I use MARTA every chance I get which turns out to be a few times a year because it doesn't serve most of the places I go to. I don't post what I want to be true, I post what I see happening right in front of me.

Don't shoot the messenger

[montydawg]

I think we are all just having a debate, no attacks. I love a car-free lifestyle so my arguments are biased towards mass transit, as I believe that is best for the environment, the health of citizens, and frankly the urban experience. I know I’m in the minority on this (across suburban and urban people) and my ideals are probably not realistic considering the evolving nuanced city environment, political situation and technological advancements.

[lux]

Originally Posted by RocketSurgeon

Don't take this personally, but it's funny that you say you agree with what that person wrote but then attack them for posting it.

I've lived in the middle of Midtown for over a decade and I agree with them as well. I use MARTA every chance I get which turns out to be a few times a year because it doesn't serve most of the places I go to. I don't post what I want to be true, I post what I see happening right in front of me.

Don't shoot the messenger

It's a fair point, I should have clearer on what my issue is. The comment I was replying to was making autonomous vehicles out to be a "fix" to the current transportation and urban planning problem. While yes, I do feel like autonomous EVs will become more prevalent, they will become prevalent like rideshare apps are currently. Maybe they will even become ubiquitous. Still, fundamentally, this means they do not address the following issues:
- Atlanta has a built environment largely hostile to pedestrians and bikes, autonomous vehicles will not do anything to address this
- Autonomous vehicles are still cars, which are an inferior means of moving a large amount of people around efficiently than transit or walking/biking. Even if you scale them up to hold more than 5 people like a typical passenger vehicle can.

So my problem is not the accuracy of the prediction, it's the implication that autonomous cars are a good solution to our transportation problem, and completely disregarding the built environment/sprawl aspect.

I don't even think rail expansion needs to happen (it'd be much better if it did...). I think that if we had a bikeshare system that was connected to MARTA stations, strong bus and rail frequency and reliability, and improvements to the network like cleanliness, TOD and dedicated bike/bus lanes, many many more people would be using our existing system and even living car free.

[stepover]

Originally Posted by lux

1. "Robovans" and "Robobuses" do NOT EXIST.
2. The advantages of autonomous EVs over rail that you listed are just the advantages of driving cars in general so it does nothing to address the fundamental question of: the overabundance of cars makes for a terrible urban experience, how can we fundamentally address this?
3. "The reality is Atlanta is going no where it seems with heavy/light rail because of incompetence. We can all pine for the this utopia transit system, but all signs point to it not happening." There is a lot of irony in calling traditional transit "utopian" while you pontificate about autonomous EVs - a technology which literally does not even exist in this city yet, and barely exists in other places. The actual reality is that transit exists everywhere else in abundance - it is not utopian just because this city has bad urban planning and made bad decisions in the past. The amount of will and investment that goes into implementing an autonomous vehicle system is far greater than simply expanding upon an existing rail system.

I will say that your predictions are probably correct - this city will probably lean on autonomous and electric vehicles and the next "evolution" in transportation without fundamentally addressing sprawl or making any meaningful investment in transit. This is how suburbanites find comfort in their lifestyle/rationalize it, and the metro area mostly comprises of suburbanites.

1. Yet. I would bet Robobuses will be here before a new Marta line or even any new light rail.

2. I understand what you're saying, but there are fundamental differences of autonomous EV vs car ownership. It's much cheaper for the passenger and gives more options for transport to lower income people. Could actually cost less then Marta if there was additional funding from government. Less parking garages are needed. With Robobuses they could potentially sync with traffic lights or other autonomous vehicles as well as platooning to improve traffic flows. They are already safer than the average human driver and will get significantly better in the coming years making the roads safer for pedestrians and cyclist.

3. There's 1500 Waymos on the road now, just started service in Atlanta. They expect 3500 by next year. Tesla will ramp even faster as their cars/ecosystem are so much cheaper. Again, I take Marta train everyday for work. I'm just trying to be a realist, Marta does not seem to be progressively moving forward.

[edg1]

Originally Posted by stepover

1. Yet. I would bet Robobuses will be here before a new Marta line or even any new light rail.

2. I understand what you're saying, but there are fundamental differences of autonomous EV vs car ownership. It's much cheaper for the passenger and gives more options for transport to lower income people. Could actually cost less then Marta if there was additional funding from government. Less parking garages are needed. With Robobuses they could potentially sync with traffic lights or other autonomous vehicles as well as platooning to improve traffic flows. They are already safer than the average human driver and will get significantly better in the coming years making the roads safer for pedestrians and cyclist.

3. There's 1500 Waymos on the road now, just started service in Atlanta. They expect 3500 by next year. Tesla will ramp even faster as their cars/ecosystem are so much cheaper. Again, I take Marta train everyday for work. I'm just trying to be a realist, Marta does not seem to be progressively moving forward.

City of Atlanta should limit Waymos to about maybe 100 of them because they are going to take the jobs away from Uber drivers.

[lux]

Originally Posted by stepover

1. Yet. I would bet Robobuses will be here before a new Marta line or even any new light rail.

2. I understand what you're saying, but there are fundamental differences of autonomous EV vs car ownership. It's much cheaper for the passenger and gives more options for transport to lower income people. Could actually cost less then Marta if there was additional funding from government. Less parking garages are needed. With Robobuses they could potentially sync with traffic lights or other autonomous vehicles as well as platooning to improve traffic flows. They are already safer than the average human driver and will get significantly better in the coming years making the roads safer for pedestrians and cyclist.

3. There's 1500 Waymos on the road now, just started service in Atlanta. They expect 3500 by next year. Tesla will ramp even faster as their cars/ecosystem are so much cheaper. Again, I take Marta train everyday for work. I'm just trying to be a realist, Marta does not seem to be progressively moving forward.

I think that in the short to medium term you are spot on and we are in agreement, autonomous/EV vehicles are going to grow quickly and it'll be a big thing.

I completely disagree with the notion that autonomous vehicles will fix anything structurally. Maybe there will be fewer fatal collisions, but my point is more that this does nothing to address the development pattern in this city. Our shared spaces, particularly arterial roads, are incredibly unpleasant outside of the car, and I think we should be worried about the experience outside of the car to be more pleasant because that is where life is lived. The car is a means to an end, and an overreliance on it is a huge, insidious problem, whether you are the one driving it or it drives itself. Sprawl will continue unchecked because it's compatible with the proliferation of autonomous cars. Autonomous vehicles will be "safe" and improve traffic flow if they are prioritized, which means making our roads even more like highways than they already are and cracking down on things like increased crosswalks, jaywalking, and road diets, which are essential to a vibrant street life, regardless of investment in transit.

Also - if the future has in it robovans with capacity for 50 people, then that's a bus. If buses being self-driving is what it takes to prioritize them on Atlanta roads, then so be it!

[stepover]

Originally Posted by lux

I think that in the short to medium term you are spot on and we are in agreement, autonomous/EV vehicles are going to grow quickly and it'll be a big thing.

I completely disagree with the notion that autonomous vehicles will fix anything structurally. Maybe there will be fewer fatal collisions, but my point is more that this does nothing to address the development pattern in this city. Our shared spaces, particularly arterial roads, are incredibly unpleasant outside of the car, and I think we should be worried about the experience outside of the car to be more pleasant because that is where life is lived. The car is a means to an end, and an overreliance on it is a huge, insidious problem, whether you are the one driving it or it drives itself. Sprawl will continue unchecked because it's compatible with the proliferation of autonomous cars. Autonomous vehicles will be "safe" and improve traffic flow if they are prioritized, which means making our roads even more like highways than they already are and cracking down on things like increased crosswalks, jaywalking, and road diets, which are essential to a vibrant street life, regardless of investment in transit.

Also - if the future has in it robovans with capacity for 50 people, then that's a bus. If buses being self-driving is what it takes to prioritize them on Atlanta roads, then so be it!

Everything you say sounds great to me and I would love to have a much more connected transit system with a better bike and walking environment. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem Atlanta has the economic/political/(or whatever is missing) will to do that.

I think the proposed Robovans are 20 people. The motors are all in the floor and there's no driver so they would carry much more capacity by size then an Internal Combustion vehicle. Also, I've seen suggestions of platooning - so like 2 twenty person vehicles would chain together.

[stepover]

Looks like Amazon Zoox is coming to Atlanta

https://techcrunch.com/2025/05/20/amazons-zoox-to-start-testing-avs-in-atlanta-following-waymo/