The US Census Bureau thread

[Lobotomizer]

Originally Posted by mhays

It would generally mean a lot of sprawl and long commutes.

True, though there are a lot of major employers located in Williamson County, so it's not like they'd all be commuting to downtown Austin.

It's 25 miles from Salado (Bell County) to Georgetown (Williamson County) via I-35.

And there are developments such as this which will only accelerate in the coming decades. I know projects like this aren't going to be popular here, but it is the type of stuff happening that makes me think at some point an Austin-Killeen CSA could occur.

Austin Business Journal shares, "About 18 months ago, representatives of Arizona-based DMB Development LLC unveiled initial plans for its long-anticipated Solana Ranch project near Jarrell. The effort called for billions of dollars of investment and construction of 14,000 homes and mixed-use buildings on more than 7,000 acres.

Split between Williamson and Bell counties, the planned development is among the most anticipated in the region. In early 2023, the Austin Business Journal first revealed plans for the project — located on the site of a 9,000-acre cattle and wildlife ranch owned by the Michaux family along the I-35 corridor between Georgetown and Temple.

https://www.luxehomesaustin.com/blog...he-scenes.html

[mhays]

I wouldn't want to encourage a lot of 25-mile driving commutes.

It's common in the US and to some extent other places, but that's unfortunate.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by mhays

I wouldn't want to encourage a lot of 25-mile driving commutes.

It's common in the US and to some extent other places, but that's unfortunate.

And it's unfortunately more common in Texas. You only have to look at DFW and Houston, the two fastest growing large metros in the country during the past 50 or so years, to see that. So, it's increasingly a possibility that Austin will join its bigger bro. metros in that trend. Already a lot of the huge manufacturing complexes proposed are in the far exurbs, like the Samsung fab. I certainly remember when downtown Dallas and Houston had their skyscraper building booms in the 80s when both their metros were in the 3-3.5 million range, and now their metros have doubled in size but you would not guess it from looking at their downtown skylines, especially Dallas.

[mhays]

Sad, really.

[JManc]

My wife commutes about 25 miles to work each way. My previous job was about 30. It sucks but the nature of how Houston is developed is not conducive to short commutes. You either pay $$$$ to live right in town in a nice area that is relatively crime free or you move further out to save $$$ and live in a nice area that is relatively crime free. Everything in between is various degrees of sketchiness and crime.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by JManc

My wife commutes about 25 miles to work each way. My previous job was about 30.

How much time does that take?

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

How much time does that take?

In the morning, about 45 minutes (depending on traffic) but closer to an hour in the evening. When I commuted, it was an hour and a half in the evening for me. It was terrible

[Austin55]

Does anyone know when the City and town (incorporated place and minor civil division) population numbers will be released? Should be this month sometime.

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Originally Posted by Austin55

Does anyone know when the City and town (incorporated place and minor civil division) population numbers will be released? Should be this month sometime.

They will be released this Thursday.

[DetroitMan]

Detroit's population grows for second straight year as prior estimates revised upward

Detroit's population grew for the second straight year in 2024, according to Census Bureau estimates that also revised upward the city's 2023 population, the city's latest milestone in reversing a generations-long people drain that began in 1957.

The Motor City gained nearly 7,000 people from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024, according to new U.S. Census Bureau data released Thursday. The city's population rose from 638,914 to 645,705, an increase of more than 1%.

The census also revised last year's population data, when Detroit grew for the first time in 66 years, to reflect stronger growth than previously measured. The federal government now says the city gained more than 4,000 people between 2022 and 2023, more than double the prior estimate.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...n/83630070007/

[Steely Dan]

CB estimates for the big messy urban cities are usually best used as fertilizer, but FWIW, they say the City of Chicago also grew for a second year in a row, adding 22,164 people last year, which is, of course, highly unusual for them.

It's likely a bunch of hogwash, but good press is good press.

And Lord knows Chicago can use every last shred of it that it can get.



We'll see where we're really at in 5 years.

[eschaton]

Pittsburgh's up nearly 3,000 (1%) from 2023-2024, FWIW.

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Here are the 50 largest cities sorted by their growth rates. Every city here has 400k+ populations.

Miami city, Florida 3.47%
Charlotte city, North Carolina 2.55%
Fort Worth city, Texas 2.38%
Seattle city, Washington 2.20%
Washington city, District of Columbia 2.17%
Las Vegas city, Nevada 1.84%
Houston city, Texas 1.84%
Raleigh city, North Carolina 1.78%
Jacksonville city, Florida 1.65%
San Antonio city, Texas 1.59%
Nashville-Davidson, Tennessee 1.54%
San Jose city, California 1.39%
Columbus city, Ohio 1.38%
Louisville/Jefferson, Kentucky 1.37%
Atlanta city, Georgia 1.34%
Boston city, Massachusetts 1.33%
Oklahoma City city, Oklahoma 1.19%
Tampa city, Florida 1.17%
Sacramento city, California 1.13%
Detroit city, Michigan 1.06%
Denver city, Colorado 1.06%
New York city, New York 1.04%
San Francisco city, California 1.02%
Phoenix city, Arizona 1.02%
Oakland city, California 0.93%
Kansas City city, Missouri 0.93%
Chicago city, Illinois 0.82%
Los Angeles city, California 0.81%
Tucson city, Arizona 0.74%
San Diego city, California 0.71%
Bakersfield city, California 0.69%
Dallas city, Texas 0.68%
Philadelphia city, Pennsylvania 0.68%
Indianapolis city (balance), Indiana 0.64%
Arlington city, Texas 0.62%
Mesa city, Arizona 0.61%
Fresno city, California 0.52%
Omaha city, Nebraska 0.51%
Minneapolis city, Minnesota 0.47%
Colorado Springs city, Colorado 0.46%
Austin city, Texas 0.40%
Tulsa city, Oklahoma 0.27%
Virginia Beach city, Virginia 0.23%
Portland city, Oregon 0.23%
Baltimore city, Maryland 0.13%
Milwaukee city, Wisconsin 0.09%
El Paso city, Texas 0.02%
Albuquerque city, New Mexico -0.14%
Long Beach city, California -0.19%
Memphis city, Tennessee -0.60%

[Crawford]

St. Louis is the only really major city with population decline, it appears. Even Cleveland grew quite robustly.

Keep in mind these estimates are almost certainly off. They revised the imputation from earlier in the decade to include a slightly more favorable set of variables for urban areas. It's highly likely the estimates from earlier in the decade were ridiculously off, and this last year or two are trying to compensate somewhat.

[iheartthed]

I wonder when was the last time Detroit was that close to being the fastest growing major city in the Midwest.

[Crawford]

Detroit and Cleveland grew faster than Austin and Dallas.

I doubt it's true, but still pretty eye-opening.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Keep in mind these estimates are almost certainly off. They revised the imputation from earlier in the decade to include a slightly more favorable set of variables for urban areas. It's highly likely the estimates from earlier in the decade were ridiculously off, and this last year or two are trying to compensate somewhat.

Yes to all of that!

It is imperative not to take any of this estimate stuff as gospel, because even the CB itself goes back and "corrects" its old estimates as its assumptions shift over time.

Case in point: Chicago

Chicago 2020 count: 2,746,381
Chicago 2023 estimate: 2,664,452
Chicago 2024 estimate: 2,721,308

So does that mean that Chicago really grew by +56,856 (+2.1%) last year, instead of +22,164 (+0.8%)?

No, it means that the CB also adjusted the 2023 estimate up by +35,692, likely because the CB now believes that it was previously overestimating how many people actually left big urban cities during the pandemic.

Using any of these estimate figures to make definitive statements about which cities are growing or decreasing faster than others is a fools claim, as the CB itself doesn't even stand by its old figures. Who's to say that any of these new estimate figures won't be adjusted again next year?

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Detroit and Cleveland grew faster than Austin and Dallas.

I doubt it's true, but still pretty eye-opening.

That is probably true for city proper. But the suburbs of Austin and Dallas is where the growth is at. Their burbs are among the fastest growing cities in the country.

Also, the Texas State Leg passed some bills to allow areas of Austin to de-annex from the City. About 6K Austin residents voted to remove themselves from the City about a year ago.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by The ATX

That is probably true for city proper. But the suburbs of Austin and Dallas is where the growth is at. Their burbs are among the fastest growing cities in the country.

Also, the Texas State Leg passed some bills to allow areas of Austin to de-annex from the City. About 6K Austin residents voted to remove themselves from the City about a year ago.

If these growth rate estimates are anywhere close to accurate then this is likely the first time in a century that Detroit has outpaced Austin or Dallas in rate of growth in a single year. I take these census estimates with a grain of salt but if this is accurate that would be an astounding shift for Detroit.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

If these growth rate estimates are anywhere close to accurate then this is likely the first time in a century that Detroit has outpaced Austin or Dallas in rate of growth in a single year. I take these census estimates with a grain of salt but if this is accurate that would be an astounding shift for Detroit.

TFR is are probably starting to drop in Texas cities, while Detroit is either stable or bottomed out at this time.